Investment Rating - The investment rating for Jiangsu Changshu Automotive Trim Group is Equal-weight [4] Core Views - The report indicates a price target reduction from Rmb15.60 to Rmb14.70, reflecting updated revenue forecasts and margin expectations [1][3] - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 4.6% and 7.9% respectively, following a 4% revenue beat in 2024, attributed to steady customer expansion [1][2] - Gross profit margin (GpM) forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been lowered by 2.2 percentage points and 1.7 percentage points respectively, due to pricing pressure and increased competition [2][3] - Net profit forecasts have been reduced by 13.1% and 10.3% for 2025 and 2026 respectively, reflecting the adjustments in revenue and GpM [3] Summary by Sections Financial Forecasts - The report introduces financial forecasts for 2027, with EPS estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at Rmb1.36, Rmb1.52, and Rmb1.66 respectively [4][17] - The DCF-based price target is set at Rmb14.70, which is a 6% decrease from previous estimates, indicating expectations of more stable long-term profitability despite near-term challenges [3][8] Market Position and Strategy - The company is expected to experience superior growth compared to peers, albeit at the cost of narrowing gross profit margins [11] - There is a tight balance sheet amid a slowing industry, which may limit capital expenditure capabilities to capture growth opportunities [11] - The report suggests that growth is likely to moderate, with potential for client base diversification into local players and deeper cooperation with key customers like Tesla and Li Auto [15][11] Risk and Reward Themes - The report identifies positive themes in electric vehicles but negative themes regarding pricing power, indicating a mixed outlook for the industry [12] - The company is expected to actively seek new orders and solidify its position within the supply chain of major automotive players [12][15]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In-Line" [5] Core Insights - China's total non-domestic Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) increased by 11% year-over-year (YoY) to 79% of 2019's level as of June 23, 2025, compared to 77% in the previous week [10] - Non-domestic seat capacity grew by 14% YoY for the same period [5] - Capacity additions were observed on routes to Thailand (+7%), Hong Kong (+7%), Macau (+4%), and Japan (+3%) on a week-over-week (WoW) basis [10] Summary by Sections International Air Capacity - Non-domestic ASK was 79% of 2019's level as of June 23, 2025, up from 77% the previous week [2] - The increase in ASK was driven by significant growth on Japan (+37%), Hong Kong (+24%), Korea (+21%), and US (+14%) routes, while Macau and Thailand saw decreases of -11% and -28% respectively [10] Capacity Metrics - Seat capacity on Japan, Thailand, and Korea routes reached 113%, 51%, and 97% of 2019 levels, respectively, while US routes were at 29% [10] - The overall growth in non-domestic ASK reflects a recovery trend in international air travel post-pandemic [5][10] Company Ratings - Air China Limited (601111.SS) rated Equal-weight [62] - Air China Limited (0753.HK) rated Overweight [62] - Cathay Pacific Airways (0293.HK) rated Equal-weight [62] - China Southern Airlines (600029.SS) rated Equal-weight [62] - COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation (1138.HK) rated Overweight [62]

Investment Rating - The report identifies several European defence stocks as "Overweight" (OW) rated, including Airbus, Rolls-Royce, Leonardo, Rheinmetall, and Thales, indicating a positive outlook for these companies in the context of AI integration in defence [6][32][105]. Core Insights - The European Defence sector is increasingly intersecting with themes of sustainability and national security, leading to a narrative shift that may ease weapon exclusions in sustainability funds [2][27]. - NATO's AI military spending is projected to reach approximately $112 billion by 2030 under the base case scenario, with a potential sixfold increase to $306 billion in a bullish scenario [6][30]. - The report evaluates nine key AI applications that are reshaping the defence sector, with cybersecurity and unmanned systems identified as the most advanced areas [6][74]. Summary by Sections Investment Landscape - The European Commission has announced a rearmament plan with AI at its core, aiming to scale up defence spending in response to geopolitical tensions [28][64]. - The report highlights a lack of consensus among sustainability-focused asset managers regarding what constitutes acceptable investments in the defence sector, particularly concerning controversial weapons [27][42]. AI Integration in Defence - The Application Readiness Radar evaluates nine AI applications, indicating that cybersecurity and unmanned systems are leading in terms of corporate readiness and investment [6][74]. - The report emphasizes the importance of ethical considerations in AI military applications, advocating for effective risk management frameworks and corporate engagement [6][37][74]. Corporate Readiness - The report assesses AI technology readiness among European Aerospace and Defence companies across six verticals, identifying Airbus as the most prepared company with readiness across all assessed areas [32][105]. - Companies such as Rolls-Royce, Leonardo, and Rheinmetall also demonstrate strong AI capabilities, offering an attractive bull-bear skew for investors [6][105]. Market Dynamics - The report notes a significant increase in venture capital funding for defence-related AI technologies, with European startups attracting $653 million in 2024, doubling year-on-year [66]. - The integration of AI in defence is seen as critical for enhancing operational efficiency and addressing emerging threats, with a focus on dual-use technologies that serve both military and civilian purposes [104][105].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Zijin Mining Group is Overweight [4][78]. Core Views - The report highlights that Zijin Mining Group generates over 50% of its gross profit from copper, with a forecasted compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7% in copper production volume from 2025 to 2027, driven by projects such as Kamoa, Timok, Julong, and Ashele [13][14]. - The price target for Zijin Mining Group has been raised to HK$25.10, reflecting an implied 2025 estimated price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15x [3][4]. - The report indicates a positive risk-reward scenario, with a bull case price target of HK$31.80 and a bear case price target of HK$9.60 [10][11]. Summary by Sections Price Target and Scenarios - The price target has been updated from HK$23.40 to HK$25.10, with the bull case increasing from HK$31.00 to HK$31.80 and the bear case from HK$9.40 to HK$9.60 [2][3]. - The updated earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are Rmb1.56, Rmb1.70, and Rmb1.65, respectively, reflecting increases of 1%, 4%, and 5% [3][4]. Production and Pricing - The report adjusts the Kamoa production volume to 400kt for 2025-26 and raises the realized average selling price (ASP) to gold price ratio based on first-quarter 2025 actual numbers [3]. - In the bull case scenario, gold and copper prices are projected at US$3,945/oz and US$5.03/lb, respectively, with gold production of 84.9 tons and copper production of 938.9kt in 2025 [11]. - The base case scenario estimates gold and copper prices at US$3,289/oz and US$4.19/lb, with gold production of 78.6 tons and copper production of 853.5kt [12]. Investment Drivers - Recent mergers and acquisitions, including four gold, three lithium, and one molybdenum project, are expected to enhance gold output growth and diversify into new products [14]. - The report emphasizes the strong demand for copper in China, which is a significant driver for Zijin's growth [13].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or sector discussed Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is in a "wait-and-see" mode, with Chair Powell indicating that the economy is "solid" and the policy is moderately restrictive, allowing the Fed to remain patient [1][4] - Inflation is projected to rise to 3.0-3.3% for both headline and core PCE by year-end, influenced by tariffs and a tight labor market [3][8] - The Fed's future actions will depend on economic data, particularly regarding inflation and labor market conditions, with potential interest rate cuts forecasted to begin in March 2026 [3][8] Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The Fed anticipates that tariffs will increase prices over the summer, aligning with the report's view [1] - Chair Powell noted that the impact of tariffs on inflation could be either short-lived or more persistent, depending on various factors [5][10] Labor Market - Immigration controls are expected to keep labor force growth low, contributing to a tight labor market [3][11] - The Fed is monitoring per-capita economic health due to slowing population growth, which may present a different picture than aggregate data [12] Monetary Policy - The Fed is not expected to make preemptive cuts, with most committee members believing that conditions for cuts will be met by year-end [8] - Chair Powell emphasized the uncertainty surrounding tariff pass-through to consumers and the need for caution in policy adjustments [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the industry, with expectations of GDP growth slowing to 4.5% in the third quarter of 2025, following a strong second quarter performance [3][13]. Core Insights - The second quarter showed robust growth, but June data revealed emerging concerns, particularly in retail and export sectors, indicating a potential softening of economic momentum [3][4]. - The real estate market continues to struggle, with declining transaction volumes and increased fiscal pressure on local governments, necessitating potential policy adjustments [5][12]. - Consumer spending is being supported through financial measures, with a focus on enhancing service supply to stimulate demand [10][11]. Summary by Sections Economic Performance - The second quarter GDP growth is projected to reach 5%, but a decline to 4.5% is anticipated in the third quarter due to weakening exports and a sluggish real estate market [3][13]. - Retail sales showed strong performance in early June, driven by promotional activities, but this may not be sustainable as consumer sentiment weakens [4][10]. Export and Trade - Exports to the U.S. saw a rebound in June, likely due to seasonal demand for the holiday shopping season, but overall export performance remains weak [4][18]. - Container throughput at major ports in China has significantly slowed, indicating a broader decline in trade activity [4][14]. Real Estate Market - The real estate sector remains under pressure, with transaction volumes continuing to decline and fiscal revenues falling short of budget targets [5][22]. - Local governments face increasing fiscal challenges, prompting discussions on expanding budgetary flexibility and potential new financing tools [5][12]. Consumer Spending and Policy Measures - The government is implementing measures to support consumer spending, including financial backing for service consumption and infrastructure development [10][11]. - Structural reforms are necessary for a more balanced economic recovery, focusing on social welfare and tax reforms [11][12].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the stablecoin industry or specific companies involved in it. Core Insights - The stablecoin market has seen significant growth, with total market capitalization increasing from approximately US$3 billion in 2019 to over US$230 billion by 2Q25. The market is projected to reach US$2 trillion by 2028, with potential estimates as high as US$3.7 trillion by the end of the decade [8][10][20]. - The Hong Kong SAR government aims to establish the city as a global hub for digital assets, with stablecoins being a crucial component of this strategy. The development of stablecoins is expected to facilitate various payment scenarios, including cross-border transactions and digital financial asset transactions [1][20]. - Key players in the stablecoin ecosystem include issuers, exchanges, custodians, payment channels, blockchain networks, and brokers, each with distinct roles and monetization strategies [14][18]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The stablecoin market is currently dominated by fiat-backed stablecoins, with USDT and USDC capturing 66% and 26% of the market share, respectively [8][9]. - The growth prospects for stablecoins are closely tied to the adoption of digital assets in various payment scenarios, including B2B, B2C, and C2C transactions [1][20]. Regulatory Framework - The report outlines similarities and differences between stablecoin regulations in the US and Hong Kong, emphasizing the need for regulatory supervision and adequate consumer protection [18][19]. - Hong Kong's Stablecoin Bill is set to take effect on August 1, 2025, with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) as the primary regulator [19]. Utilization and Features - Potential features of Hong Kong's stablecoins include being primarily referenced to HKD, maintaining liquid and low-risk reserve assets, and requiring all ecosystem players to be licensed [23][24]. - Key use cases for stablecoins in Hong Kong include facilitating digital asset transactions, trade finance, and cross-border payments [24]. Company Involvement - Companies such as Standard Chartered, Futu, ZhongAn, and JD.com are actively participating in the stablecoin ecosystem, with various strategies to secure licenses and develop digital asset solutions [25][30][31]. - The report notes that only Futu and Standard Chartered have initiated monetization efforts, with digital asset revenue contributions currently being immaterial but expected to ramp up upon obtaining relevant licenses [26][32]. Equity Implications - The rising adoption of stablecoins is anticipated to benefit companies in the communications services and discretionary sectors, particularly e-tailing platforms, while traditional payment service providers may face declining transaction volumes [34].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall investment rating for the industry, but it provides forecasts and expected returns for various asset classes, indicating a mixed outlook across equities, bonds, and commodities [4][18]. Core Insights - The correlation between the dollar and the S&P 500 has returned to negative territory after reaching five-year highs, suggesting a shift in market dynamics [9]. - Bloomberg's Fedspeak Index has dropped to its most dovish signal since 2021, indicating a potential easing in monetary policy [10]. - The US economic surprise index has fallen to its lowest level in nine months, reflecting weaker-than-expected economic data [20]. Summary by Sections Equities - S&P 500 forecasted returns range from a bear case of 5,968 to a bull case of 7,200, with a base case return of 6,500, indicating a potential decline of 16.6% in the bear scenario and an increase of 21.9% in the bull scenario [4]. - MSCI Europe shows a bear case of 2,141 and a bull case of 2,620, with a base case of 2,250, reflecting a potential decline of 21.6% in the bear scenario and an increase of 25.6% in the bull scenario [4]. - Topix forecasts range from 2,100 in the bear case to 3,250 in the bull case, with a base case of 2,900, indicating a potential decline of 21.8% in the bear scenario and an increase of 19.7% in the bull scenario [4]. Fixed Income - UST 10-year yields are forecasted to range from 4.38% in the bear case to 2.85% in the bull case, with a base case of 3.45%, indicating a potential increase of 7.8% in the bear scenario and a decrease of 17.5% in the bull scenario [4]. - US Investment Grade (IG) credit spreads are expected to range from 85 bps in the bear case to 70 bps in the bull case, with a base case of 90 bps, reflecting a potential decline of 2.2% in the bear scenario and an increase of 1.8% in the bull scenario [4]. Commodities - Brent crude oil is forecasted to range from $77 in the bear case to $120 in the bull case, with a base case of $60, indicating a potential decline of 29.1% in the bear scenario and an increase of 70.2% in the bull scenario [4]. - Gold prices are expected to range from $3,368 in the bear case to $3,900 in the bull case, with a base case of $3,250, reflecting a potential decline of 21.5% in the bear scenario and an increase of 10.9% in the bull scenario [4]. Market Sentiment - The Market Sentiment Indicator (MSI) aggregates survey positioning, volatility, and momentum data to quantify market stress and sentiment, indicating a current negative sentiment [55][60]. - The report tracks daily fund flows across approximately 5,000 ETFs globally, covering around $7 trillion in assets, providing insights into cross-asset sentiment and positioning [23].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to Xiaomi Corp with a price target raised to HK$62.00, indicating a potential upside of 22% from the current share price of HK$50.80 [7]. Core Insights - The launch of the SU7 Ultra marks the beginning of Xiaomi's luxury car journey, with expectations for significant growth in its EV segment, particularly with the upcoming YU7 model [3][4]. - Xiaomi's revenue is projected to exceed Rmb1 trillion by 2030, driven by its dual growth engines: the EV and Smartphone+AIoT+Internet divisions, with net profit expected to surpass Rmb100 billion [2][9]. - The report highlights Xiaomi's strong market position in the AIoT and smartphone sectors, with anticipated revenue growth from innovative product launches and improved product mix [5][11]. Summary by Sections Price Target and Market Outlook - The price target for Xiaomi has been increased from HK$45.00 to HK$62.00, reflecting confidence in the company's growth trajectory [1]. - The analysis suggests that Xiaomi's share price could exceed HK$100 before 2030, supported by robust revenue and profit growth [2][9]. EV Business Development - The SU7 Ultra's launch is seen as a pivotal moment for Xiaomi, enhancing its brand equity and market share in the luxury segment [3][31]. - The report raises volume forecasts for EV sales to 370,000 units in 2025 and 750,000 units in 2026, with an increase in average selling price (ASP) from Rmb245,000 to Rmb250,000 in 2025 [60][53]. - Cumulative EV gross profit estimates for 2024-2026 have been revised upwards from Rmb48.1 billion to Rmb67.6 billion [57]. AIoT and Smartphone Growth - The AIoT division is expected to see solid growth in 2025, driven by innovative product launches and a diversified product mix [64]. - Xiaomi's smartphone segment is experiencing positive momentum, with higher ASPs contributing to margin recovery and improved brand image [77][84]. - The report notes that Xiaomi's market share in China has improved from No. 5 in 2023 to No. 3 in 2024, with continued gains expected in both domestic and international markets [84].

June 23, 2025 12:53 AM GMT India Economics – Macro Indicators Chartbook | Asia Pacific Policy Impetus to Bolster Growth Growth indicators exhibit a modest recovery led by domestic demand. Macro stability indicators have improved, increasing flexibility for policy makers. Uncertainty from external conditions continues to weigh on growth, even as India appears better placed on a relative basis. 1) Growth – uneven recovery: High-frequency data in May suggest a mixed trend across indicators, with ones such as G ...