Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific assets [3]. Core Insights - The S&P 500 is forecasted to reach 6,500 by Q4 2025, representing a total return of 15.6% with a volatility of 19% [3]. - The report highlights a mixed performance across global equity markets, with the DAX outperforming at +3.8% and technology sectors leading at +4.3% [101]. - The US Dollar experienced a significant decline of 4.55% in April, marking its second worst monthly performance in 15 years [9][101]. - Credit spreads tightened for US and EU high-yield bonds, while spreads widened for investment-grade indices [101]. Summary by Relevant Sections Equities - S&P 500: Current level at 5,687, forecasted to 6,500 with a return of 15.6% [3]. - MSCI Europe: Current level at 2,137, forecasted to 2,150 with a return of 3.8% [3]. - Topix: Current level at 2,688, forecasted to 2,600 with a return of -0.8% [3]. - MSCI Emerging Markets: Current level at 1,133, forecasted to 1,050 with a return of -4.6% [3]. Fixed Income - UST 10-year yield forecasted to decrease to 4.00% from 4.31%, with a total return of 6.8% [3]. - US Investment Grade (IG) credit spread at 102 bps, forecasted to tighten to 95 bps with a return of 1.5% [3]. Commodities - Brent crude oil forecasted to decrease to $57.5 from $61, with a return of -5.2% [3]. - Gold forecasted to increase to $3,500 from $3,250, with a return of 5.3% [3]. Currency - JPY forecasted to appreciate to 141 from 145, with a return of 1.0% [3]. - EUR forecasted to depreciate to 1.08 from 1.13, with a return of -6.5% [3]. Market Sentiment - The report indicates a negative sentiment in the market, with the Market Sentiment Indicator (MSI) reflecting stress and positioning data [54][58].

Investment Rating - The report suggests that India will likely outperform a global bear market while underperforming in a bull market, indicating a positive long-term investment outlook for India despite global uncertainties [1][3]. Core Insights - Strong macroeconomic fundamentals are highlighted, including improving terms of trade, declining primary deficit, and falling inflation volatility, which are expected to support mid- to high-teens earnings growth annually over the next three to five years [6]. - Technical indicators are favorable, with orderly declines in the market and persistent retail buying, suggesting a structural nature to the current market dynamics [6]. - Key catalysts for India include dovish actions from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), potential stimulus through GST rate cuts, and a trade deal with the US, while global factors such as US policy and growth rates remain crucial [6]. Summary by Sections Macro Stability - The report emphasizes strong macro stability with a reliable source of domestic risk capital and a dovish RBI, which are expected to support economic growth [6][35]. Corporate Fundamentals - Earnings growth is projected to be robust, with estimates suggesting a compound annual growth rate of 16% through fiscal year 2028, driven by increased private investment and macro stability [94][96]. Valuations - The current price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 3.8 implies a 10-year annual return of 9.6%, indicating improved long-term return prospects [77][78]. Portfolio Strategy - The recommended portfolio strategy favors domestic cyclicals over defensives and external-facing sectors, with an overweight position in financials, consumer discretionary, and industrials [6][100]. Economic Forecasts - GDP growth is forecasted at 6.3% for fiscal year 2025, with a gradual decline in the repo rate expected to support economic activity [94]. Index Target - The base case target for the BSE Sensex is set at 82,000 by December 2025, reflecting a modest upside potential of 2% from current levels [95][96]. Sentiment Indicators - The proprietary sentiment indicator remains in the buy zone, suggesting positive market sentiment despite global uncertainties [6][91]. Institutional Flows - Institutional flows are currently off highs, indicating potential shifts in market dynamics that could impact equity returns in the near term [88]. Risk Factors - While the report identifies several risks, it emphasizes that the overall outlook for India remains positive, supported by strong fundamentals and favorable technicals [6].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a preference for large-cap stocks over small-cap stocks, indicating a favorable investment rating for large caps in the current market cycle [5][8]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that large-cap stocks are expected to outperform small caps due to better pricing power and operational efficiency in a slowing macroeconomic environment [5][8]. - It highlights the attractiveness of large-cap healthcare stocks compared to staples, noting that healthcare trades at a discount and offers better defensive hedges [5][8]. - The report also points out that industrials are favored over consumer discretionary goods within cyclicals, citing stronger pricing power and less exposure to tariffs [5][8]. - A focus on high-quality stocks is recommended, as they are expected to perform better in a slowing economic environment [5][8]. - The report indicates a preference for US equities over international equities, particularly the S&P 500, due to its quality growth attributes and lower volatility [6][9]. Summary by Sections Trade Preferences - Large caps are preferred over small caps due to their relative outperformance in a late-cycle environment [5][8]. - Large-cap healthcare is favored over staples, with a noted 4-turn discount to the S&P and a 6-turn discount to staples, making it a better defensive hedge [5][8]. - Industrials are preferred over consumer discretionary goods, benefiting from stronger pricing power and structural exposure to infrastructure build-out [5][8]. - High-quality stocks are recommended for investment, particularly those with less leverage and lower earnings volatility [5][8]. - The report suggests selective investment in high-quality cyclicals that have already priced in a slowdown [5][8]. - US equities, particularly the S&P 500, are favored over international equities due to their quality growth characteristics and improving earnings revisions [6][9]. Market Outlook - The S&P 500 has surpassed previous resistance levels, indicating a potential for further gains if positive developments continue [14]. - A trade deal with China is seen as crucial for maintaining corporate confidence and supporting equity markets [15][17]. - The report notes that while earnings season has been better than feared, there are still concerns about future earnings revisions and macroeconomic conditions [19][21]. - The report anticipates a mid-single-digit percent hit to EPS growth in 2025 and 2026, which is typical in moderate growth slowdowns [26][27].

M Idea May 4, 2025 10:00 PM GMT Asia | Asia Pacific Three Actionable Ideas Amcor – OW | Grab Holdings – OW | AirTAC International – OW OW – Amcor (AMC.AX): The BERY transaction has the potential to deliver attractive earnings accretion. AMC's track record points to them being able to deliver on this potential, creating significant earnings growth and valuation upside. Upgrade to OW. OW – Grab Holdings (GRAB.O): Solid start to the year with profitable growth in a seasonally low quarter. Higher EBITDA guidanc ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight (OW) rating on Defensives versus Cyclicals, particularly favoring Gold miners, Aerospace and Defense, and Consumer Staples [2] Core Insights - The report indicates a cautious outlook due to the ascendance of Multipolar World trends, with significant slowing in growth anticipated and further adjustments needed in valuations and earnings estimates [1][2] - Preferred markets include domestic Japan (unhedged), India, Singapore, and UAE, while being Equal-weight (EW) on China and Underweight (UW) on Korea and Taiwan [1] - Financials are favored over Semiconductors and Tech Hardware [1] Market Allocation - The report highlights a preference for Japan (30.6% allocation), India (12.9%), Singapore (3.3%), and UAE (1.4%), while being neutral on China (18.0%) and Taiwan (8.9%) [24] - The allocation reflects a strategic positioning in markets expected to perform better in the current economic climate [24] Earnings and Valuations - The report provides base-case earnings forecasts for major indices, with the TOPIX expected to reach 2,600 by December 2025, reflecting a 3% decrease from current levels [10] - The MSCI EM index is projected to decline to 1,050, a 6% drop, while the MSCI APxJ is expected to reach 550, also a 5% decrease [10] - The report outlines a Bull Case scenario for the MSCI APxJ reaching 3,100, indicating a potential upside of 12% [11] Global Economic Forecasts - Real GDP growth forecasts for major economies show a decline, with the US projected at 1.4% for 2025 and China at 4.2% [13] - The report anticipates a general slowdown in growth across Asia, with specific countries like India maintaining relatively higher growth rates [13] Inflation Projections - The report forecasts headline CPI for the US at 3.0% for 2025, while China is expected to remain low at 0.1% [15] - Inflation rates across Asia are projected to vary, with India expected to see a CPI of 4.9% [15] Focus List of Companies - The report includes a focus list of companies with Overweight ratings, such as Bajaj Finance Limited and ICICI Bank, indicating strong performance potential [29] - The focus list reflects a diverse range of sectors, including Financials, Consumer Staples, and Communication Services, with significant upside potential noted for several companies [29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for domestic exposures such as Banks, Telcos, Real Estate, Utilities, and domestic Consumer Staples, while being cautious on global trade-exposed markets like Taiwan and South Korea [14]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the weakening US dollar is favoring emerging market (EM) currencies, leading to a favorable environment for markets and companies with higher local currency revenues [3][7]. - It emphasizes a preference for domestic-oriented markets, particularly India, Singapore, and the Philippines, due to their resilience against currency fluctuations [14]. - The report identifies sectors that historically outperform in a weaker dollar environment, such as Materials and Energy, while suggesting a focus on defensives and gold miners in the current atypical market conditions [19]. Market Allocation and Performance - The report provides a scorecard for APxJ/EM market allocation, indicating that markets like Brazil, South Africa, Mexico, and Australia have historically outperformed in a weaker dollar environment [19]. - It outlines the estimated upside to base case December 2025 index targets for various markets, with India (SENSEX) projected at 82,000 and Singapore (MSCI Singapore) at 1,900 [30]. - The report includes a focus list of companies with high sensitivity to a weaker USD, such as H World Group and Innovent Biologics, all rated "Overweight" [28][32].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Cautious industry view for China's IT Services and Software sector [8]. Core Insights - The software industry in China is expected to continue its downtrend, with the bottom yet to be reached [2]. - AI adoption is identified as the sole bright spot, with increasing interest from CIOs leading to larger budgets and tighter timelines for implementation [5][10]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Enterprise confidence is struggling to recover, with CIOs' confidence sinking further due to macroeconomic conditions and the impact of tariffs [4][10]. - IT services budgets are stabilizing, while software budgets are deteriorating, indicating a shift in spending priorities [10]. AI Adoption - There is a significant rise in CIO interest in AI, with 71% expecting AI projects to represent a substantial portion of their IT investments in 2025, up from 52% in the previous survey [11][60]. - AI is cannibalizing traditional IT spending, with hardware and IT services gaining budget share at the expense of software [5][14]. Budget Expectations - The 2025 IT budget growth expectation is 5.8%, down from previous projections, with software growth expected to be 4.2% [12][21]. - SOEs are revising down their IT budgets for 2025, while POEs are expected to see a slight increase [42]. Vendor Insights - DeepSeek is recognized as having the best AI product suite, with a significant majority of CIOs favoring it over competitors [82]. - The preference for AI model development vendors has increased, indicating a shift away from traditional hyper-scaler cloud vendors [90]. Spending Trends - The average percentage of IT spending related to AI is projected to rise to 11.2% in 2025, reflecting a growing commitment to AI initiatives [60][75]. - CIOs expect AI to add an average of 4.5% to their IT budgets in 2025, with a notable portion of this funding coming from reallocations within existing budgets [75][79].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a lower outlook for Brent prices, with forecasts reduced by $5-10 per barrel due to increased OPEC supply and anticipated market surplus [1][14][26]. Core Insights - OPEC's recent quota increase of 411 kb/d in May and another similar increase in June suggests a trend towards higher production levels, leading to a projected market surplus of approximately 1.1 mb/d in 2H25 and 1.9 mb/d in 2026 [10][14][26]. - The Brent price is expected to decline to around $55 per barrel by 1H26, down from a previous estimate of $65 per barrel, reflecting the anticipated oversupply in the market [14][26][30]. - Historical parallels are drawn to the late 1997 downturn, where a similar increase in OPEC production coincided with a significant demand slump, resulting in a drastic price decline [21][22][25]. Supply and Demand Summary - OPEC supply is projected to grow by an additional 0.4 mb/d in both 2025 and 2026, while non-OPEC supply is expected to increase by 1.2 mb/d in 2025 and 1.1 mb/d in 2026, leading to a total liquids balance surplus of approximately 1 mb/d in 2025 and 1.9 mb/d in 2026 [26][27][30]. - Total oil liquids demand is forecasted to grow by 0.7 mb/d in 2025 and 0.6 mb/d in 2026, which is significantly outpaced by supply growth [26][27][30]. Price Forecasts - The report outlines a cautious price outlook, with Brent prices expected to remain at the lower end of the forecast range, likely settling in the mid-$50s per barrel by mid-2026 [29][30][36]. - The relationship between oil prices and shale break-evens suggests that prices may need to fall below the mid-$50s to balance the market, depending on demand impacts from external factors such as tariffs [30][31][36].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" (OW) rating for Maoyan (1896.HK) and Ali Pictures (1060.HK) due to their strong ticketing business and market share gains in content [4][32] - The rest of the companies are rated "Equal Weight" (EW) or "Underweight" (UW) based on weaker growth outlooks and stretched valuations [4][32] Core Insights - The 2025 China film box office forecast has been reduced from Rmb57 billion to Rmb49 billion, reflecting a 15.5% year-over-year increase and a 76% recovery [2][17] - The non-holiday box office market remains weak, with a significant decline in revenue from Rmb30 billion in 2018/2019 to Rmb10-20 billion during 2022-2024 [3][23] - The report highlights a concentration among producers and distributors in the blockbuster-driven market, with holiday box office accounting for 58-60% of total box office from 2022 to 2024 [3][24] Summary by Sections Industry Outlook - The report forecasts a 16% growth in the film box office for 2025, indicating a recovery trend [17][18] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a box office of Rmb24 billion, a 49% increase year-over-year, largely driven by the success of Nezha 2 [8][19] - The second quarter is expected to decline by over 25% year-over-year, with significant drops during the May Golden Week [8][20] Company Analysis - Maoyan and Ali Pictures dominate the film ticketing business with over 60% and 30% market share, respectively, and are also key players in film distribution [36][42] - The report raises revenue forecasts for Beijing Enlight by 40% for 2025-2027, reflecting the success of Nezha 2 and its expansion into IP derivatives [33] - Huace Film is expected to see a 40% year-over-year revenue growth in 2025, driven by a strong content pipeline [37] Market Dynamics - The non-holiday market has shrunk significantly, with foreign films' box office dropping from Rmb26 billion in 2017 to Rmb10 billion in 2024 [23][25] - The report notes that domestic blockbusters are primarily released during holiday periods, exacerbating the imbalance in the market [24][23] - Tariffs are expected to further weaken the non-holiday box office, with a forecast of Rmb9 billion for foreign films in the base case scenario for 2025 [25][26]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies. Core Insights - Emerging Market (EM) equity funds experienced outflows of US$1.2 billion in the week ending April 30, 2025, with China leading the outflows at US$2.8 billion, partially offset by inflows from India (US$0.7 billion), Brazil (US$0.5 billion), Korea (US$0.4 billion), and Taiwan (US$0.4 billion) [2][3] - GEM long-only managers increased their overweights in Brazil and Korea while reducing their underweight in China, funded by adding to India underweight and cutting South Africa overweight [3][4] - Japanese equities saw foreign inflows of US$3.7 billion in the week ending April 25, 2025, although year-to-date flows remain net sold [5] Market Dynamics - In March 2025, GEM investors trimmed underweights in Consumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail and Telecommunication Services, funded by cutting overweights in Semiconductors and Media & Entertainment [4] - The underweight in Japan among long-only investors narrowed to 27 basis points as of the end of March 2025, down from 39 basis points at the end of December 2024 [5] - Active long-only managers added to overweight positions in Consumer Durables & Apparels and trimmed underweight in Automobiles & Components, funded by adding to underweight in Capital Goods [5] Fund Positioning - As of March 31, 2025, the relative market allocation of EM fund managers shows a significant underweight in China, which has narrowed, while both portfolio and index weights have risen [11] - The report highlights that the active fund positions in EM equities by market show Brazil with a portfolio weight of 7.8%, India at 19.5%, and Korea at 9.0% [21] - Sector positioning indicates that Financials account for 24.1% of the portfolio, followed by Information Technology at 21.5% and Consumer Discretionary at 14.5% [23][27]