2024 年6 月11 日 汽车汽配: 超配 证券研究报告 / 业绩点评报告 蔚来汽车 (NIO US, 持有, 目标价: US$5.20) 1Q24 盈利承压，毛利率受益于交付量增长有望环比改善 目标价: US$5.20 当前股价: US$4.72 • 受行业竞争加剧、新旧车型更替影响，1Q24 整体业绩承压。 股价上行/下行空间 +10% 52周最高/最低价 (US$) 16.18/3.61 • 预计2Q24 交付5.4-5.6 万辆新车，2Q24 汽车板块毛利率有望环比提升至双位数。 市值 (US$mn) 8,025 • 维持“持有”评级和目标价5.20 美元不变。 当前发行数量(百万股) 1,700 三个月平均日交易額 270 1Q24 整体业绩承压，当期在手现金流出约120 亿元。根据蔚来汽车1Q24 业绩报告，公 (US$mn) 流通盘占比 (%) 91 司实现营业收入99.1 亿元，同环比下降7.2%/42.1%；其中汽车销售收入83.8 亿元，同环 主要股东 (%) 比下降9.1%/45.7%。公司1Q24 综合毛利率为4.9%，同比提升3.4 个百分点，环比下降 李斌 11 2.6 个百分点 ...

我们维持"买入"评级，并将我们的 SOTP 目标价从每股 175.00 港元小幅上调至 180.00 港元，是 因为我们基于盈利前景改善而上调了对核心业务、餐饮外卖和到店酒旅的估值。详情如下： • 餐饮外卖业务方面，我们采用 15 倍 2024 年 P/E（不变），得到估值为 570 亿美元（之前为 530 亿美元）。以上倍数相对于美团的全球外卖同业公司 FactSet 一致预测均值（37.5 倍 2024 年 P/E）存在约 60%的折价，主要是因为美团的可触达市场（TAM）较小（见图表 5）。 • 到店、酒店及旅游业务方面，我们采用 15 倍的 2024 年 P/E（不变），得到估值为 380 亿美元 （之前为 360 亿美元）。以上估值倍数相较美团的全球旅游业同业公司一致预测均值（19.2 倍 2024 年 P/E）存在约 20%的折价（图表 5），原因是美团 TAM 较小。 图表 3: 美团社区电商可比公司 P/GMV 估值倍数 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------|----------|-------|-------------------- ...

s 2024 年6 月5 日 证券研究报告 / 行业更新报告 医药 2 医药月报（五月）：集采常态化，人工关节集采续约降价 温和 • 统计时间段内， 除了 H 股超小盘外，申万A/H 各市值区间均有所下跌。 • 医药行业进入常态化严监管阶段，利好合规的龙头企业。 • 我们预计2024 年行业业绩增长有望超过10%并将推动估值修复。 根据万得数据，统计时间段内（2024/5/1-2024/5/31）申万医药A 股（461 家）共有103 家公司上涨，按照子行业来看，涨幅数量前三的为化学制剂28 家，中药14 家，原料药11 家。统计时间段内申万医药H 股（87 家）共有38 家公司上涨，按照子行业来看，涨幅数 量并列前三的为其他生物制品6 家，原料药6 家，化学试剂6 家。 本月重点新闻政策： 1）国家医保局、国家税务总局在京签署《关于“推进数据共享 深化协同共治”合作备忘 录》，进一步深化巩固两部门合作，拓展双方数据资源优势，持续提升服务效能，以部门 协同共治更好服务经济社会高质量发展。我们认为，过去，由于各部门职责和管理权限不 同，医保局想了解企业的成本、费用情况，只能通过财政部以“医药行业会计信息质量检 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HK$14.07, up from the previous target of HK$13.15 [1][17][35]. Core Insights - The clinical data presented at the 2024 ASCO annual meeting shows that TST001 combined with nivolumab and CAPOX has a median progression-free survival (mPFS) of 12.6 months in patients with high/medium CLDN18.2 expression and 80% of PD-L1 CPS<5 patients [3][49]. - The company has optimized its R&D pipeline and resource allocation, resulting in a modest increase in R&D expenses to RMB 382 million in 2023, which is a year-on-year increase of RMB 32.2 million [5][51]. - The DCF valuation model indicates a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 9.8% and a terminal growth rate of 2.0%, leading to a new target price of HK$14.07 [7][35]. Financial Analysis - The company's revenue for 2024E is projected at RMB 132 million, with a gross profit of RMB 33 million, and a net loss of RMB 527 million [32][58]. - R&D expenses for 2024E are expected to be RMB 396 million, reflecting a 21% reduction from previous estimates [5][37]. - The company anticipates a 15% growth in net profit for both 2024E and 2025E, with net losses decreasing from RMB 624 million to RMB 527 million in 2024E [5][37]. Valuation Overview - The DCF analysis estimates the equity value at HK$14.07 per share, indicating a potential upside of 691% from the current share price of HK$1.78 [48][35]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately US$42 million, with a current share count of 184 million [48]. Clinical Development - The report highlights the significant clinical efficacy of TST001 in treating gastric or gastroesophageal junction cancer, particularly in patients with high/medium CLDN18.2 expression [39][49]. - The results from the Phase I/II clinical trials support the advancement of TST001 into Phase III trials, which have received regulatory approval from the FDA and CDE [39][49].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Logistics with a target price of HK$14.23, indicating a potential upside of 57% from the current price of HK$9.06 [1][2][10] Core Insights - JD Logistics has shown significant improvement in profit margins, leading to an upward revision of the earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024-2026 by 4.7% to 18.4% [4][8] - The company is expected to benefit from enhanced operational efficiency due to automation, cost savings from the integration of Debon Holdings, and improved economies of scale [4][5] - The report highlights that 31% of JD Logistics' revenue still comes from related parties, indicating a significant dependency on its parent company, JD Group [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 181,863 million, with a growth rate of 9.1% [6][9] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 7.6% in 2023 to 8.3% in 2024 [7][9] - Adjusted net profit for 2024 is forecasted at RMB 2,634 million, reflecting a 32.7% year-on-year increase [6][9] Earnings Forecast - The report revises the EPS estimates for 2024 to RMB 0.42, up from RMB 0.40, and for 2025 to RMB 0.54, up from RMB 0.47 [3][9] - The adjusted net profit margin is expected to increase slightly, with projections of 1.4% for 2024 and 1.7% for 2025 [9][10] Valuation - The target price of HK$14.23 is based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) model, maintaining a WACC of 11.7% and a perpetual growth rate of 2% [10][11] - The current valuation suggests a significant discount of 36.3% compared to the target price, indicating potential for price appreciation [10][11]

s 2024 年5 月8 日 证券研究报告 / 行业更新报告 医药 医药月报（四月）：北京市发布支持创新药发展政策 • 统计时间段内，除了 A 股超小盘外，申万A/H 各市值区间均明显上涨。 • 胰岛素集采续约，采购量增多，总体价格保持平稳。 • 我们预计2024 年行业业绩增长有望超过10%并将推动估值修复。 根据万得数据，统计时间段内（2024/4/6-2024/5/6）申万医药A 股（461 家）共有281 家公司上涨，按照子行业来看，涨幅数量前三的为化学制剂75 家，中药43 家，原料药 32 家。统计时间段内申万医药H 股（87 家）共有78 家公司上涨，按照子行业来看，涨 幅数量前三的为其他生物制品20 家，化学制剂13 家，医疗耗材10 家。 本月重点新闻政策： 1）胰岛素专项集采接续在上海开标并进行公示。本次接续采购全国共有35000 多家医疗 机构参加，填报胰岛素需求量超过2.4 亿支，涵盖临床常用的二代和三代胰岛素。从中标 企业透露的信息来看，此次接续中选价格与之前集采相比有升有降，总体价格保持平稳。 我们认为，本轮胰岛素接续采购报量更多，同时将进一步推动三代胰岛素的使用。 2）《北京市支 ...

2024 年5 月20 日 物流: 超配 授权转发报告/ 公司更新报告 京东物流 (2618 HK, 买入, 目标价: HK$13.20) 1Q24 业绩表现强势：收入、净利润均超预期 目标价: HK$13.20 当前股价: HK$9.80 • 京东物流公告1Q24 业绩，收入、净利润均超预期。 股价上行/下行空间 +35% • 一体化供应链客户数量恢复同比正增长，有望推动收入加速增长。 52周最高/最低价 (HK$) 13.68/6.61 市值 (US$mn) 6,235 • 重申“买入”评级及DCF 目标价13.20 港元。 当前发行数量(百万股) 4,963 三个月平均日交易額 9 此港股通报告之英文版本于2024 年5 月17 日中午12 时25 分由华兴证券（香港）发 (US$mn) 流通盘占比 (%) 26 布。中文版由华兴证券的姜雪烽（证券分析师登记编号：S1680519070001）审核。如 主要股东 (%) 果您想进一步讨论本报告所述观点，请与您在华兴证券的销售代表联系。 京东科技集团 64 1Q24 强势表现为实现全年指引奠定坚实基础：京东物流公告1Q24 业绩，收入同比增长 天作之合有限 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HK$48.26 [52][68]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in the global LiDAR and perception solutions market, benefiting from the growing demand for LiDAR technology driven by advancements in autonomous driving and ADAS [53][64]. - The company has established a strong customer base, having secured 63 mass production models from 22 automotive manufacturers and tier-one suppliers as of February 29, 2024 [89]. - The report anticipates significant growth in LiDAR shipments, projecting 950,790 units in 2024, 1,431,663 units in 2025, and 2,027,610 units in 2026, representing year-on-year growth rates of 266.3%, 50.6%, and 41.6% respectively [67]. Summary by Sections Investment Overview - The report highlights the rapid transition of the automotive industry towards electrification and automation, with LiDAR technology being a critical component for advanced industrial products like cars and robots [88][94]. Competitive Advantages - The company has a robust production capacity supported by its expertise in product validation, design, and manufacturing, which enhances its scalability in production and logistics [90]. - The integration of self-developed hardware and AI perception software into LiDAR solutions provides a significant competitive edge, allowing the company to cater to diverse customer needs [66][65]. Financial Analysis - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated at RMB 29.05 billion, RMB 45.14 billion, and RMB 74.70 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 159.4%, 55.4%, and 65.4% [67][54]. - The company is expected to achieve a NON-GAAP net profit of -RMB 2.9 billion in 2024, -RMB 0.29 billion in 2025, and RMB 4.1 billion in 2026, indicating a significant turnaround in profitability [67][54]. Market Outlook - The global LiDAR market is projected to reach approximately RMB 1.3 trillion by 2030, with an average annual growth rate of 78.8% from 2022 to 2030, driven by the increasing adoption of autonomous vehicles [44][64].

2024 年5 月8 日 医药: 超配 证券研究报告 / 业绩点评报告 老百姓大药房 (603883 CH, 买入, 目标价: RMB44.31) 门店拓展聚焦+下沉；新兴业务收入增速可观 目标价: RMB44.31 当前股价: RMB35.22 • 我们预测公司2023-26 年营收/ 归母净利润CAGR 分别为19%/24%。 股价上行/下行空间 +26% 52周最高/最低价 (RMB) 35.66/22.81 • 新兴业务收入增速可观；线上销售增长迅速。 市值 (US$mn) 2,856 • 维持买入评级，上调DCF 目标价至44.31 元。 当前发行数量(百万股) 585 三个月平均日交易額 16 2023 年业绩符合我们预期：根据老百姓年报，2023 年公司实现营收/归母净利润224.37/ (US$mn) 流通盘占比 (%) 100 9.29 亿元，同比增长11%/ 18%。销售费用率 /管理费用率分别为20.4%/ 5.3%，同比 主要股东 (%) +1.0ppts/ -0.2ppts。1Q24，公司实现营收/归母净利润55.39 亿元/3.21 亿元，同比增长 老百姓医药集团 26 2%/10 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 57.48, indicating a potential upside of 27% from the current price of RMB 45.40 [1][2][15]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue and net profit CAGR of 26% and 33% respectively from 2023 to 2026, driven by robust store growth and the trend of hospital prescription outflow [4][5]. - The company added 3,196 stores in 2023, with a total of 13,920 stores as of Q1 2024, and is projected to reach 23,774 stores by 2026, reflecting a CAGR of 22% in store count [6][11]. - The company’s 2023 revenue was RMB 22.59 billion, a 14% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of RMB 1.41 billion, up 12% [5][20]. Financial Performance - The company reported a gross margin of 38.2% in 2023, slightly down from the previous year, attributed to an increase in low-margin wholesale revenue [5][8]. - The forecast for 2024E revenue is RMB 28.53 billion, with a gross profit of RMB 11.22 billion and a net profit of RMB 1.99 billion [10][12]. - The report indicates a downward adjustment in EPS for 2024 and 2025 by 28% and 27% respectively, due to increased share capital from stock dividends [11][14]. Market Comparison - The company’s P/E ratio for 2024 is projected at 29, which is above the industry average of 15, suggesting a premium valuation due to expected high growth rates [15][17]. - Compared to peers, the company has a higher market capitalization of RMB 45.88 billion and a lower EPS than some competitors, indicating competitive positioning in the market [17]. Store Expansion and Strategy - The company is leveraging both online and offline channels to capture hospital prescription flows, with a significant number of stores qualifying for medical insurance [5][6]. - The report highlights the importance of acquisitions for expansion, with a focus on maintaining growth in a competitive retail pharmacy environment [18]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are RMB 28.53 billion, RMB 35.75 billion, and RMB 44.88 billion respectively, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [12][20]. - The company is expected to maintain a healthy net profit margin, with projections of 7.0% for 2024E and 7.4% for 2026E [21].