2024 年 9 月 20 日 证券研究报告 / 行业更新报告 汽车汽配 超配 中性 8 月新能源汽车渗透率继续增长至 53.5%，"金九银十"将进 一步促进整体车市销量提升 • 8 月新能源汽车销量同环比增长 43.4%/17.0%，渗透率环比增长 2.8 个百分点。 • 8 月动力电池销量和装机量环比增长 10.0%/13.5%，储能电池销量同环比持续增长。 • 预计 9 月乘用车及新能源汽车补贴将持续发力，金九银十将进一步促进整体车市销量 提升。 8 月新能源汽车销量同比增长。根据乘联会数据，8 月狭义乘用车零售销量实现 192.1 万 辆，同环比增长 0.1%/1.8%；批发销量实现 216.9 万辆，同比下降 3.0%，环比增长 3.1%。当月新能源车零售销量达 102.7 万辆，同环比增长 43.4%/17.0%，8 月渗透率为 53.5%（7 月渗透率为 50.7%）。插电混动车型（PHEV）前 8 月累计销量 252.1 万辆，同 比增长 75.7%，增幅明显超过纯电车型（BEV）的 15.7%。我们认为 8 月新能源车销量较 快增长的原因主要系以旧换新政策持续激发新能源车市场消费热情。1-8 ...

s 股票名称 代码 评级 目标价 立讯精密 002475 CH 买入 RMB46.43 韦尔股份 603501 CH 买入 RMB131.00 舜宇光学 2382 HK 买入 HK$64.00 评级与目标价格摘要 立讯精密 (002475 CH) 现值 原值 变动 评级 买入 买入 N/A 目标价 (RMB) 46.43 42.70 9% 韦尔股份 (603501 CH) 现值 原值 变动 评级 买入 买入 N/A 目标价 (RMB) 131.00 120.00 9% 舜宇光学 (2382 HK) 现值 原值 变动 评级 买入 持有 ↑ 目标价 (HK$) 64.00 62.00 3% 研究团队 王国晗, 分析师 证书编号：S1680524080001 电话：+86 21 6015 6827 电邮地址：ghwang@huaxingsec.com 2024 年 9 月 19 日 证券研究报告 / 行业更新报告 科技硬件 重点关注新 iPhone 相机控制功能及 AI 相关规格升级；上调 舜宇光学至买入评级 • 随 iPhone 16 发布的相机控制功能及用户 AI 体验提升超出预期。 • 我们认为三折叠屏幕是华 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HK$61.98, reflecting a potential upside of 42% from the current price of HK$43.50 [2][4][8]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue CAGR of approximately 30% from 2024 to 2026, driven by strong market demand for its products [2][3]. - The company reported a significant increase in product revenue for 1H24, reaching RMB 3.81 billion, a year-on-year growth of 55.1% [2][6]. - The gross margin for 1H24 was 84.1%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points compared to the previous year, attributed to rising sales and decreasing production costs [2][3]. - The company has multiple key products in the cardiovascular and metabolic (CVM) fields awaiting approval, which are considered crucial for future growth [2][3]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from RMB 6,206 million in 2023 to RMB 12,948 million by 2026, with a gross profit increasing from RMB 5,070 million to RMB 10,667 million over the same period [1][12]. - The net profit is expected to turn positive by 2025, reaching RMB 1,004 million, and further increasing to RMB 2,508 million by 2026 [1][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to improve from a loss of RMB 0.66 in 2023 to a profit of RMB 1.61 by 2026 [1][12]. Valuation Analysis - The report employs a two-stage DCF valuation method, resulting in a target price of HK$61.98, which corresponds to a 2025 enterprise value/revenue multiple of 7.7x, significantly higher than the comparable company average of 4.0x [8][9]. - The WACC used in the valuation is 10.2%, with a perpetual growth rate of 3% [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a **Buy** rating to Shenwei Pharmaceutical (2877 HK) with a target price of HK$18.00, representing a 106% upside potential from the current price of HK$8.75 [1][2] Core Views - Shenwei Pharmaceutical's exclusive products are growing steadily, and traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) formula granules are expected to recover growth after 2H24 [3] - The company's revenue and net profit are forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 11% and 10% respectively from 2023 to 2026 [3] - The target price is based on a DCF model with a WACC of 12.1% and a perpetual growth rate of 0.5%, implying a 2025E P/E of 11x, in line with the industry average [14] Financial Performance - In 1H24, Shenwei Pharmaceutical reported revenue of RMB 2.087 billion, down 13% YoY, while net profit grew 28% YoY to RMB 626 million [4] - Excluding one-time items, adjusted net profit declined 5% YoY to RMB 409 million [4] - Gross margin improved slightly by 0.1 ppts to 75.3% in 1H24 [4] - Free cash flow was RMB 489 million in 1H24, with an interim dividend of RMB 83 million and a trailing 12-month dividend yield of 40% [4] - Net cash per share stood at HK$7.64, representing 87% of the latest closing price [4] Product Performance - Injection sales declined 19% YoY to RMB 779 million in 1H24, with the flagship product Qingkailing down 9% YoY to RMB 366 million [4] - Soft capsule sales fell 18% YoY to RMB 289 million, while granule sales grew 4% YoY to RMB 345 million, driven by a 12% increase in Huamoyan granules [4] - TCM formula granule sales dropped 12% YoY to RMB 555 million in 1H24, with sales in Hebei and Yunnan hospitals down 1% YoY, accounting for 90.4% of total formula granule revenue [5] Forecast Adjustments - Revenue forecasts for 2024-26 were lowered by 5%/8%/8%, mainly due to weaker-than-expected injection and formula granule sales [11] - Gross profit forecasts for 2024-26 were revised down by 5%/8%/9%, while net profit and EPS forecasts were cut by 5%/8%/8% [13] - Injection revenue forecasts for 2024-26 were reduced by 8%/12%/13%, and formula granule revenue forecasts were lowered by 9%/13%/16% [12] Valuation - The DCF target price of HK$18.00 implies a 2025E P/E of 11x, in line with the industry average of 10x [14] - Shenwei Pharmaceutical trades at a discount to A-share peers, with a 2025E P/E of 6x vs. the A-share average of 20x [19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 10.78, representing a potential upside of 34% from the current price of RMB 8.02 [1][12]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve long-term growth driven by the development of new products, particularly in the oncology treatment sector with the launch of its first antibody drug, trastuzumab [4][5]. - The company has a stable revenue growth outlook, with a projected revenue CAGR of 9% and net profit CAGR of 18% for the years 2023-2026, despite a downward adjustment from previous estimates [4][10]. - The report highlights a decrease in R&D expenses by 26.44% in 1H24, which has contributed to stabilizing net profit growth [4][7]. Financial Summary - For 1H24, the company reported revenue of RMB 1.299 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1%, and a net profit of RMB 416 million, up 5% from the previous year [7][8]. - The company's gross profit margin for 1H24 was 78.2%, reflecting a slight improvement from 77.7% in 1H23 [7]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024E is RMB 0.63, with a slight increase of 6% from previous estimates [9][10]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The revenue forecast for 2024E is adjusted to RMB 2.982 billion, down 18% from previous estimates, while the net profit forecast is increased to RMB 1.048 billion, up 6% [9][10]. - The company’s product segments show varied performance, with biological products expected to generate RMB 2.133 billion in revenue for 2024E, down 23% from previous estimates [11][12]. Valuation - The report employs a two-stage DCF valuation method, resulting in a target price of RMB 10.78, which corresponds to a P/E ratio of 16 for 2025, higher than the average of comparable companies [12][15]. - The report notes that the company’s continuous growth in biological products justifies a premium valuation [12][15].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Hold" rating to the company with a target price of RMB 33.79, indicating a potential upside of 3% from the current price of RMB 32.77 [1][12]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on enhancing its gross margin through a strategic shift towards blood products, which have shown stable growth driven by sales of PCC and factor VIII products. However, the outlook for non-blood products remains uncertain due to significant revenue declines in related segments [4][9]. - The report highlights a significant drop in revenue for the first half of 2024, primarily due to the divestiture of non-blood product businesses, but notes an improvement in gross margin to 67.03%, up 17.1 percentage points year-on-year [4][7]. - Revenue forecasts for blood products are projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.9% to 14.1% from 2024 to 2026, while non-blood product segments are expected to decline [4][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 1H24, the company reported revenue of RMB 896 million, a decrease of 42% year-on-year, with a net profit of RMB 316 million, down 3% [7][9]. - The blood products segment generated RMB 790 million in revenue, reflecting a 3.6% increase year-on-year, while the biochemical drug segment saw a 45% decline [8][9]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The revenue forecast for 2024 has been adjusted downwards by 37% to RMB 1,887 million, with net profit estimates revised to RMB 597 million, reflecting a 2% increase from previous estimates [11][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at RMB 1.18, with subsequent years showing growth to RMB 1.35 in 2025 and RMB 1.51 in 2026 [11][12]. Valuation - The report employs a two-stage discounted cash flow (DCF) model for valuation, adjusting the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) to 8.7% and maintaining a perpetual growth rate of 1% [12][13]. - The target price of RMB 33.79 corresponds to a 2025 price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 25x, slightly above the average of comparable companies [12][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan (3690 HK) with a target price of HK$193.00, representing an upside potential of 88% from the current price of HK$102.80 [2][5][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights strong growth in key segments, with a significant increase in order volume for the in-store, hotel, and travel business, which saw a year-on-year growth of 60% in Q2 2024. The operating profit margin is expected to improve to 34% due to stabilizing industry competition [6][11]. - The report also notes that the on-demand delivery segment, which includes food delivery and flash purchase, experienced a 14.2% year-on-year increase in order volume in Q2 2024, with total revenue growth estimated at 17% [11][30]. - The report projects that the core local business operating profit will grow by 28% year-on-year in 2024, up from a previous estimate of 16%, driven by improved profitability in food delivery, flash purchase, and in-store services [12][30]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 334,451 million, reflecting a 19% year-on-year growth, with adjusted EBITDA expected to reach RMB 44,161 million, a 24% increase [15][26]. - The adjusted net income for 2024 is forecasted at RMB 41,503 million, representing a 13% increase from previous estimates [15][26]. Segment Analysis - The in-store, hotel, and travel segment is expected to generate RMB 57,050 million in revenue for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 25% [26][68]. - The on-demand delivery segment is projected to achieve a revenue growth of 18.7% in 2024, with a significant improvement in profitability due to reduced subsidies and enhanced operational efficiency [11][30]. Valuation - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation approach, assigning a 15x P/E multiple to the food delivery business, resulting in a valuation of USD 65 billion, and a 0.8x P/GMV multiple for community e-commerce, leading to a valuation of USD 52 billion [17][19][30]. - The overall SOTP valuation for Meituan is estimated at HK$1,230 billion, supporting the target price of HK$193 [32].

2024 年 7 月 30 日 消费服务: 中性 证券研究报告 / 评级更新报告 九毛九国际 (9922 HK, 持有, 目标价: HK$2.70) 主要调整 现值 原值 变动 评级 持有 买入 ↓ 目标价 (HK$) 2.70 6.10 -56% 2024E EPS (RMB) 0.17 0.37 -54% 2025E EPS (RMB) 0.25 0.42 -40% 2026E EPS (RMB) 0.30 0.48 -37% 股价表现 | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|------------| | 股价上行/下行空间 | +2% | | 52 周最高/最低价 (HK$) | 15.78/2.61 | | 市值 (US$mn) | 482 | | 当前发行数量(百万股) | 1,414 | | 三个月平均日交易額 (US$mn) | 8 | | 流通盘占比 (%) | 100 | | 主要股东 (%) | | | GYH J Limited | 38 | | 按 2024 年 7 月 29 日收市数据 | | 资料来源: FactSet Jul ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with an updated target price of RMB 251.30, up from RMB 244.10 [1][10]. Core Insights - The company's gross margin continued to improve, reaching 26.6% in Q2 2024, while the energy storage business experienced rapid growth with a year-on-year shipment increase of 45%, accounting for nearly 25% of total shipments [1][2]. - Despite a 12% year-on-year decline in revenue for the first half of 2024, net profit increased by 10.4% to RMB 228.6 billion, indicating effective cost management and a strong market position [1][8]. - The company achieved a domestic market share of 46.7% in the power battery sector and is actively expanding its overseas market presence [1][2]. Financial Summary - For the first half of 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 1,667.7 billion, a decrease of 12% year-on-year, while the gross margin improved by 5 percentage points to 26.5% [1][7]. - The net profit for Q2 2024 was RMB 123.6 billion, reflecting a 13.4% increase compared to the previous quarter [1][7]. - The company’s operating cash flow for the first half of 2024 was RMB 447.1 billion, with cash on hand reaching RMB 2.55 billion [1][7]. Performance Adjustments - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted downwards to RMB 385.6 billion, RMB 431.0 billion, and RMB 473.1 billion, respectively, while net profit estimates have been increased by 3.0%, 2.3%, and 0.6% for the same periods [2][8]. - The gross margin projections for 2024-2026 have been raised by 2.2, 2.0, and 1.7 percentage points, respectively, indicating improved profitability despite revenue declines [8][9]. Market Position - The company holds a global market share of 37.5% in the power battery sector as of May 2024, solidifying its leading position in the industry [2][8]. - The company has signed agreements with major partners, including Rolls-Royce, to enhance its presence in the energy storage market in Europe and North America [2][8].

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