Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to JD Logistics (2618 HK) with a target price of HK$20.67, representing a 39% upside from the current price of HK$14.88 [2][3] - The target price has been revised upward by 17% from the previous target of HK$17.68 [5] Core Views - JD Logistics demonstrated strong profitability in 3Q24, with non-IFRS net profit margin increasing to 5.2% from 1.3% in 3Q23, driven by efficiency improvements despite a challenging macroeconomic environment [10] - The company's adjusted net profit surged 313% YoY in 3Q24, supported by robust margin expansion, particularly in gross margin [10] - Access to Tmall/Taobao merchants and overseas expansion are identified as two key long-term growth drivers [9][11] - JD Logistics plans to double its self-operated warehousing space for international business by 2025, with a focus on the Asia-Pacific region [11] Financial Performance - Revenue grew 6.6% YoY in 3Q24, with revenue from JD Group and third-party channels increasing by 8.1% and 5.9% respectively [11] - Gross margin improved to 10.6% in 2024E, up from 7.6% in 2023A, reflecting the company's efficiency initiatives [13][20] - Adjusted EPS for 2024E/2025E/2026E has been revised upward by 36.2%/24.4%/20.4% to RMB 0.93/1.07/1.19 [5][20] - The company's adjusted net profit margin is expected to reach 3.3% in 2024E, up from 2.4% previously forecasted [20] Valuation - The target price of HK$20.67 is based on a DCF model with a WACC of 12.1% and a perpetual growth rate of 2.0% [21][22] - JD Logistics is currently trading at a 28.0% discount to the revised target price, with a 2024E P/E of 14.6x and 2025E P/E of 12.6x [21] Industry Outlook - The logistics industry remains highly competitive, but JD Logistics is well-positioned to benefit from its access to Tmall/Taobao platforms, which is expected to drive long-term revenue growth [11] - The company's international business, though relatively small, is expected to contribute to long-term revenue growth with manageable capital expenditure [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group with a target price of HK$34.00, reflecting an 18% upside potential from the current price of HK$28.80 [1][10][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Xiaomi's third-quarter performance exceeded expectations, with revenue and adjusted net profit surpassing forecasts by 3% and 4% respectively, driven by strong IoT revenue and electric vehicle shipments [1][3]. - The management remains optimistic about future expansion, particularly in the electric vehicle segment, where gross margins have improved to 17.1% [1][10]. - The smartphone market outlook is positive, with projected shipment growth of 7% year-on-year in 2025, supported by the strong sales of the Xiaomi 15 series [1][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, Xiaomi reported total revenue of RMB 92.5 billion, a 31% year-on-year increase, with adjusted net profit of RMB 6.25 billion, reflecting a 4% growth [3][6]. - The smartphone segment generated RMB 47.45 billion in revenue, while the IoT segment contributed RMB 26.1 billion, both showing strong growth [3][6]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 have been adjusted upwards by 2%-4%, primarily due to higher expected smartphone and electric vehicle shipments [9][10]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is projected to be RMB 27.64 billion, an increase of 2% from previous estimates [9][10]. Valuation - The report uses a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for valuation, maintaining a target multiple of 28.5 times the 2025 adjusted earnings, reflecting confidence in the smartphone market recovery and Xiaomi's strong position in the electric vehicle sector [10][11]. - The target price adjustment from HK$33.00 to HK$34.00 is based on updated profit forecasts and reflects a potential upside of 18.1% from the current stock price [10][11].

2024 年 11 月 20 日 医药: 超配 证券研究报告 / 首次覆盖报告 马应龙 (600993 CH, 买入, 目标价: RMB37.49) 买入 搏有 起出 | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------|-------------| | 目标价 : RMB37.49 当前股价 | : RMB24.95 | | 股价上行/下行空间 | +50% | | 52 周最高 /最低价 (RMB) | 31.18/20.20 | | 市值 (US$mn) | 1,485 | | 当前发行数量 (百万股) | 431 | | 三个月平均日交易額 (US$mn) 流通盘占比 (%) | 26 100 | | 主要股东 (%) | | | | 29 | | 中国宝安 | | | 武汉国资委 | 6 4 | | 交银施罗德 按 2024 年 11 月 18 日收市数据 资料来源: FactSet | | 股价表现 | --- | --- | |-----------------|-------| | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HK$30.40, representing a potential upside of 31% from the current price of HK$23.20 [1][8][9] Core Insights - The company has shown a recovery path, with a 10% quarter-on-quarter revenue growth in Q3 2024, although the price increase was less than expected [1][4] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 exceeded expectations at 12.2%, compared to the forecast of 11.5% [1][4] - The management indicated strong growth in consumer electronics, but weakness persists in industrial and automotive sectors [1][4] - Revenue forecasts for 2025 have been adjusted downwards to a 23% year-on-year growth, a reduction of 5% from previous estimates [1][5] Financial Summary - The company reported a net profit of US$45 million in Q3 2024, which was 9% higher than the forecast [4] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is US$0.08, with subsequent years expected to rise to US$0.12 in 2025 and US$0.16 in 2026 [1][5] - Revenue for 2024 is forecasted at US$2,003 million, with a projected increase to US$2,461 million in 2025 and US$2,953 million in 2026 [5][14] Valuation - The valuation approach is based on a price-to-book (P/B) ratio, with a target P/B of 1.0 times and an estimated book value per share of US$3.87 for 2025 [8][9] - The report highlights that the company’s long-term return on equity (ROE) prospects remain challenging due to high capital expenditures and competitive pressures in traditional processes [8][9] Market Comparison - The company’s current market capitalization is approximately US$5.13 billion, with a P/E ratio of 38.7 for the next fiscal year [9] - Compared to peers, the company has a lower P/B ratio of 0.8, indicating potential undervaluation relative to its competitors [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 520.00, representing a potential upside of approximately 28.8% from the current price of HKD 403.80 [2][17]. Core Insights - The report highlights strong growth in the gaming sector, particularly in domestic games, driven by titles such as "Dungeon & Fighter Mobile" and other flagship games, with a projected 4Q24 year-on-year growth of 16% for both domestic and international games [2][14]. - The advertising segment continues to show robust growth, with a year-on-year increase of 17%, supported by WeChat features [2][10]. - The report notes a significant increase in net profit, with a year-on-year growth of 33% in 3Q24, surpassing previous forecasts [2][10]. Financial Performance Summary - The total net revenue for 3Q24 was RMB 167.19 billion, reflecting an 8% year-on-year increase [10]. - The gaming revenue for 3Q24 reached RMB 51.80 billion, with a 13% year-on-year growth, and domestic games grew by 14% [10]. - The report projects a total revenue of RMB 658.95 billion for 2024, with a slight adjustment reflecting a 0% change from previous estimates [15]. Revenue Breakdown - Domestic mobile game revenue is expected to reach RMB 131.79 billion in 2024, showing a 9.5% year-on-year increase [8]. - The report indicates that the advertising segment's gross margin has slightly decreased, while the overall revenue structure is shifting towards higher-margin businesses [14][15]. - The financial technology and enterprise services segment is projected to grow by 2% year-on-year in 4Q24, indicating a stable performance despite market challenges [10][14]. Earnings Per Share (EPS) Forecast - The report updates the EPS forecast for 2024 to RMB 22.82, reflecting a 1% increase from previous estimates [2][15]. - For 2025, the EPS is projected to be RMB 25.46, a 3% increase from earlier forecasts [2][15]. - The 2026 EPS forecast is set at RMB 28.32, also reflecting a 3% increase [2][15].

Industry Investment Rating - Overweight rating for the automotive and auto parts industry [2] Core Views - October passenger vehicle wholesale sales hit a record high, with new energy vehicle (NEV) penetration rate stabilizing above 50% [2] - Retail and wholesale sales of passenger vehicles in October achieved double-digit year-on-year growth, with NEV sales increasing by 55.9% YoY and 6.5% MoM [2] - The cumulative penetration rate of NEVs in the first 10 months reached 46.5% [2] - Power battery sales and installations in October increased by 6.2% and 8.6% MoM, respectively, with lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries accounting for nearly 80% [2] - Both high-end and low-end market segments showed strong growth, and production and wholesale volumes are expected to continue growing in November during the restocking period [2] Market Performance - In October, retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 2.28 million units, up 12.1% YoY and 7.3% MoM, while wholesale sales reached 2.668 million units, up 12.6% YoY and 9.3% MoM [3] - NEV retail sales in October were 1.196 million units, up 55.9% YoY and 6.5% MoM, with a penetration rate of 52.5% [3] - Cumulative NEV retail and wholesale sales from January to October were 8.331 million and 9.208 million units, respectively, up 32.5% and 39.8% YoY [3] - Passenger vehicle exports in October were 441,000 units, up 13.0% YoY and 2.0% MoM, with cumulative exports in the first 10 months reaching 3.991 million units, up 30.0% YoY [3] - NEV exports in October were 120,000 units, up 10.4% YoY and 13.7% MoM, with cumulative exports in the first 10 months reaching 1.088 million units, up 27.7% YoY [3] Battery Market - In October, power and energy storage battery sales totaled 110.3 GWh, up 47.4% YoY and 6.2% MoM, with power battery sales accounting for 79.1 GWh, up 30.6% YoY and 3.3% MoM [4] - Cumulative power and energy storage battery sales from January to October were 796.0 GWh, up 43.2% YoY [4] - Power battery installations in October were 59.2 GWh, up 51.0% YoY and 8.6% MoM, with LFP batteries accounting for 79.4% of total installations [4] - Ternary battery installations in October were 12.2 GWh, down 1.1% YoY and 7.2% MoM, accounting for 20.6% of total installations [4] Market Segments - High-end and low-end market segments showed strong growth in October, driven by national scrappage and local replacement subsidy policies [5] - As of November 6, over 1.7 million applications for vehicle scrappage subsidies were submitted nationwide, indicating rapid growth in replacement demand [5] - November is traditionally a period of strong restocking, with manufacturers expected to increase production to meet year-end demand [5] Top NEV Models - The top 5 NEV models by sales in October were: BYD Seagull (51,288 units), BYD Qin L DM-i (39,316 units), BYD Seal 06 (38,069 units), Tesla Model Y (36,204 units), and Wuling Hongguang MINI EV (34,185 units) [7] Battery Installations by Companies - In October, CATL led with 25.32 GWh of battery installations, accounting for 42.78% of the market, followed by BYD with 15.82 GWh (24.73%) [11] - Cumulative installations from January to October were 183.02 GWh for CATL and 100.67 GWh for BYD [11] Policy Updates - Key policies in October included Shanghai's financial support for hydrogen storage and fuel cell vehicle projects, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's announcement of new pilot cities for full electrification of public vehicles [16] - Other policies focused on promoting renewable energy and improving charging infrastructure [16] Company News - XPeng held its AI DAY on November 6, showcasing new technologies and launching the P7+ model with a starting price of 186,800 RMB [17] - Leapmotor announced that it expects to achieve profitability earlier than previously anticipated [17] - Huawei's HarmonyOS Smart Selection launched the new S7 model with a pre-sale price starting at 248,000 RMB [17] - BYD collaborated with Huawei to launch the Bao 8 smart off-road vehicle, priced between 379,800 RMB and 407,800 RMB [17] - Tesla CEO Elon Musk was announced as a co-leader of a proposed government efficiency department under the Trump administration [17] - Seres announced a cash dividend of 0.331 RMB per share, totaling 500 million RMB [17]

Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained with a target price of $122.25, representing an 18% increase from the previous target price [1][4] - The target price implies a 25x 2025 P/E and a 17% upside from the current price [4][6] Core Views - Expansion logic remains sound with strong fundamentals, driven by successful entry into new product categories such as outdoor fans, portable coolers, and cold beverage machines [2] - Short-term catalysts are lacking, and the stock may continue to fluctuate within the $90-$110 range over the next 2-3 months [3] - Revenue and adjusted net profit for 2024 are expected to grow by 27.5% and 35.2% YoY, respectively [2][4] Financial Performance and Forecasts - 2024E revenue is projected at $5.423 billion, up 27.5% YoY, with adjusted net profit of $607 million, up 35.2% YoY [4][5] - 2025E revenue is forecasted at $6.100 billion, a 12.5% YoY increase, with adjusted net profit of $686 million, up 12.9% YoY [4][5] - 2026E revenue is expected to reach $6.830 billion, growing 12.0% YoY, with adjusted net profit of $783 million, up 14.2% YoY [4][5] Product and Market Expansion - Successful product launches, including the CREAMi ice cream maker, which now contributes high single-digit revenue share after initial slow growth [2] - Plans to expand SKUs for outdoor fans and portable coolers, with further growth expected in Europe [2] - New product categories such as semi-automatic coffee machines and multi-functional beauty devices are expected to drive future growth [2] Valuation and Peer Comparison - Current 2025E P/E of 21.3x, compared to the peer average of 13.8x [8] - SharkNinja's valuation is higher than peers like Whirlpool (9.8x 2025E P/E) and Reynolds Consumer (15.7x 2025E P/E) [8] Financial Ratios and Metrics - 2024E gross margin is expected to improve to 48.2%, up from 44.9% in 2023A [9] - 2024E adjusted net margin is forecasted at 11.2%, with ROE of 22.7% [9] - Free cash flow is projected to grow from $868 million in 2024E to $1.149 billion in 2026E [9]

| --- | --- | |-------|-------------------------------| | | 2024 年 11 月 12 日 | | | 证券研究报告 / 点评报告 | | | | | 医药 | | 超配 中性 低配 医保预付金制度有望提升医疗服务业经营效率 • 医保预付金将缓解医疗机构垫资压力，提升行业经营效率； • 医保预付金也将促进药品和耗材企业稳健运行； • 我们看好医疗服务业发展前景，首推海吉亚、固生堂、锦欣生殖。 近日，国家医保局办公室、财政部办公厅印发了《关于做好医保基金预付工作的通知》 （医保办函〔2024〕101 号，以下简称《通知》）。 建立预付金制度有望缓解医疗服务行业回款压力：根据《通知》，建立医保基金预付金是 为了帮助医疗机构解决医疗费用垫付压力、提高医疗服务能力、增强参保人员就医获得感 而设置的周转资金。医保基金预付金只能用于药品、耗材等医疗费用周转支出，不得用于 医疗机构基础建设投入、日常运营、偿还债务等非医疗费用支出。我们认为，预付金制度 的实施，能切实为医疗机构可持续发展赋能助力，进而为参保群众提供更优质的医疗保 障，促进药品和耗材企业稳健运行。 ...

Industry Investment Rating - Overweight rating for the pharmaceutical retail industry [1] Core Views - The pharmaceutical retail business has shown strong revenue growth resilience in the first 8 months of 2024 [1] - The pharmaceutical retail industry is expected to achieve improved profit margins in the future, with Yifeng Pharmacy being the top recommendation [1][2] - The industry is transitioning from store expansion to profitability enhancement, maintaining long-term growth potential [2] Revenue Growth and Channel Analysis - From January to August 2024, the pharmaceutical retail market in China reached a sales scale of RMB 3,244 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.4% [1] - Retail pharmacies (including O2O) accounted for 87.0% of the market, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.3% [1] - E-commerce B2C accounted for 13.0% of the market, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.6%, and its market share increased by 1.0% compared to the previous year [1] - In July and August 2024, offline retail pharmacy revenue grew by 2% and 5% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a clear improvement in the performance of physical pharmacies [2] Channel Differentiation and Product Focus - Retail pharmacies, due to their professional nature, focus on categories such as oncology drugs, cardiovascular drugs, and hypertension medications [2] - Online platforms, leveraging privacy, prioritize categories like dermatological drugs and urological medications [2] - O2O, as an emerging field, is increasingly important for retail growth, particularly for acute medication needs such as cold medicines, cough suppressants, and systemic anti-infective drugs [2] Company Recommendation - Yifeng Pharmacy (603939CH) is recommended with a "Buy" rating and a target price of RMB 47.90 [2]

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