2024 年5 月14 日 耐用消费品及服装: 超配 证券研究报告 / 公司更新报告 特步国际 (1368 HK, 买入, 目标价: HK$6.72) 拟剥离 KP Global，短期有助于利润端 目标价: HK$6.72 当前股价: HK$5.60 • 特步国际拟剥离KP Global 亏损业务； 股价上行/下行空间 +20% 52周最高/最低价 (HK$) 9.38/3.61 • 剥离完成后，我们预计2024 年营收/归母净利润分别同比增长9.0%/24.8%至 市值 (US$mn) 1,893 156.4/12.9 亿元； 当前发行数量(百万股) 2,641 • 维持买入评级，上调目标价8%至6.72 港元，对应11 倍2025 年P/E。 三个月平均日交易額 8 (US$mn) 流通盘占比 (%) 100 拟剥离KP Global 亏损业务：1）特步国际发布公告称，拟以1.51 亿美元将K-Swiss/ 主要股东 (%) Palladium 品牌母公司KP Global 出售于丁氏家族全资控股公司Ding Shun Investment， 群成投资 47 有望于8 月完成剥离；同时特步拟发放1.51 ...

s 2024 年5 月15 日 证券研究报告 / 行业更新报告 汽车汽配 4 月新能源车渗透率提升至 43.5%，以旧换新补贴细则落地有 望新增 1-2 百万辆新车需求 • 4 月新能源车零售销量达67.4 万辆，同比增长27.9%，环比下降5.6%，4 月渗透率 提升至43.5%。 • 4 月动力+储能电池产销分别达到78.2/73.5GWh(同比增长60.0%/57.0%)，储能电池 同环比出口大幅提升。 • 我们预计以旧换新政策细则落地有望新增乘用车销量1-2 百万辆。 消费者观望情绪导致4 月新能源车销量环比略有下滑：根据乘联会数据，4 月狭义乘用车 零售销量实现153.2 万辆，同环比下降6.0%/9.3%；批发销量实现195.2 万辆，同比提升 9.2%，环比下降11.1%。当月新能源车零售销量达67.4 万辆，同比增长27.9%，环比下 降5.6%，4 月渗透率为43.5%，1-4 月累计渗透率提升至38.1%。我们认为4 月新能源车 销量环比下滑，主要系价格战持续以及市场预期五一假期促销力度更强，消费者观望情绪 加重所致。1-4 月国内累计新能源车批发和零售销量分别达到244.4/272.9 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for Tesla (TSLA US) with a target price of US$151.31, down from the previous target of US$159.84, reflecting a 5% decrease in the target price [1][11]. Core Insights - Tesla's 1Q24 performance showed a significant decline in net profit, with GAAP net profit down 55.1% year-over-year and Non-GAAP net profit down 47.6% year-over-year, attributed to a drop in delivery volumes and rising capital expenditures [2][3]. - The annual delivery forecast has been revised down to 1.773 million vehicles, indicating challenges in meeting previous expectations due to declining demand for electric vehicles [2][3]. - New product launches, including a low-cost model and Robotaxi, are expected to support future sales growth, although their timely rollout remains uncertain [3][11]. Financial Summary - For 1Q24, Tesla reported revenues of US$21.3 billion, a year-over-year decline of 8.7%, with automotive revenue at US$17.38 billion, down 12.9% year-over-year [2][5]. - The gross margin for the quarter was 17.4%, down 1.9 percentage points year-over-year, impacted by price promotions and production ramp-up of the Cybertruck [2][5]. - Free cash flow was negative at US$2.53 billion, primarily due to a 90% drop in operating cash flow and a 34% increase in capital expenditures [2][5]. Revenue and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024 have been adjusted to US$96.039 billion, reflecting a 3.6% decrease from previous estimates, with expected revenues of US$115.973 billion in 2025 and US$138.961 billion in 2026 [10][16]. - The forecast for Non-GAAP net profit has been reduced to US$11.057 billion for 2024, with expected growth to US$14.705 billion in 2025 and US$18.527 billion in 2026 [10][16]. Valuation Methodology - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method, maintaining a 50x P/E ratio for the automotive business, resulting in a target price of US$151.31 per share [11][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning with a target price of HK$26.55, indicating a potential upside of 33% from the current price of HK$19.90 [1][2][3]. Core Insights - The report projects a revenue growth of 5.2% year-on-year for 2024, reaching RMB 29.03 billion, and a net profit growth of 5.1% to RMB 3.35 billion, maintaining a net profit margin of 11.5% [3][4]. - The company is focusing on growth drivers such as running shoes and basketball products, with plans to expand its product lines and optimize store configurations in lower-tier cities [3][4]. - The report slightly adjusts the target price down by 0.5% but maintains the earnings forecasts for 2024-2026, with expected revenue growth rates of 5.2%, 6.0%, and 5.8% respectively [4][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 29,033 million, with a gross profit margin of 49.6% [5][6]. - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be RMB 3,349 million, with an EPS of RMB 1.30 [5][6]. - The report anticipates a stable management expense ratio of 4.6% and an increase in sales expense ratio to 33.3% [6]. Market Position and Strategy - Li Ning plans to launch new products in the running and basketball categories, targeting both high-end and value segments to capture market share [3][4]. - The company aims to open 75 new stores in 2024, focusing on lower-tier cities while closing underperforming stores in higher-tier cities [3][4]. Valuation Metrics - The report maintains a P/E ratio of 17x for 2025, with a slight adjustment in net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 [4][6]. - The projected net profit for 2025 and 2026 is RMB 3,673 million and RMB 4,023 million respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 1.42 and RMB 1.56 [5][6].

2024 年4 月26 日 消费服务: 中性 证券研究报告 / 公司更新报告 九毛九国际 (9922 HK, 买入, 目标价: HK$6.10) 太二短期受制于高基数，怂变革成效有待观察 目标价: HK$6.10 当前股价: HK$4.79 • 太二短期受制于高基数，未来有望继续稳步增长； 股价上行/下行空间 +27% 52周最高/最低价 (HK$) 17.90/4.42 • 怂着手变革寻找新需求，未来发展有待进一步观察； 市值 (US$mn) 879 • 维持买入评级，下调目标价13%至6.10 港元，对应15 倍2024 年P/E。 当前发行数量(百万股) 1,437 三个月平均日交易額 10 太二短期受制于高基数，未来业绩有望继续稳步增长：1）在相对高基数下，太二1Q24 同 (US$mn) 流通盘占比 (%) 100 店销售同比下滑13.9%，翻台率回落至3.9 次/天。3 月随基数效应逐步减弱，下滑程度环 主要股东 (%) 比有所收窄。2）太二将加快推新节奏，尝试将更具性价比的黑鱼引入堂食菜单、继续寻找 GYH J Limited 37 川渝菜品，并推出学生优惠与儿童套餐等扩充目标客群。假设2024 ...

2024 年4 月24 日 医药: 超配 证券研究报告 / 业绩点评报告 片仔癀 (600436 CH, 买入, 目标价: RMB282.55) 提价带动肝病用药营收高速增长；分红率大幅提升 目标价: RMB282.55 当前股价: RMB227.39 • 我们预测，2023-26 年营收 /归母净利润 CAGR 分别为13%/ 22%。 股价上行/下行空间 +24% 52周最高/最低价 (RMB) 321.00/180.69 • 1Q24 业绩恢复较高增长；主要由肝病用药部门和化妆品业务驱动。 市值 (US$mn) 18,939 • 重申买入，将DCF（WACC ：7.3%）目标价下调至282.55 元。 当前发行数量(百万股) 603 三个月平均日交易額 68 1Q24 业绩恢复较高增长：根据公司公告，片仔癀2023 年实现营收/ 归母净利润100.6/ (US$mn) 流通盘占比 (%) 100 28.0 亿元，同比增长16%/ 13%。毛利率同比提高1.1ppts 至46.8%，销售费用率 /管理 主要股东 (%) 费用率分别为7.8%/ 3.6%，同比+2.2ppts/ -0.2ppts，销售费用同 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Hold" rating to Guoxuan High-Tech with a target price of RMB 16.70 [1][5] Core Views - Guoxuan High-Tech delivered 45.3 GWh of power and energy storage batteries in 2023, with net profit attributable to the parent company increasing by 201.3% YoY [1] - The company's overseas business is expected to account for 60% of total revenue in 2024, up from 30% in 2023 [1][5] - The report downgrades the target price to RMB 16.70 and the rating to "Hold" due to intensified competition in the domestic battery industry and a higher PEG ratio compared to industry peers [5] Financial Performance - In 2023, Guoxuan High-Tech achieved revenue of RMB 31.605 billion, a 37.1% YoY increase, with a gross margin of 16.9% [1] - The company's 1Q24 revenue was RMB 7.508 billion, with a gross margin of 17.9%, up 0.9 percentage points QoQ [1][2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company in 1Q24 was RMB 69.1 million, down 8.6% YoY and 89.3% QoQ [2] Profit Forecast - The report lowers the 2024-2025 revenue forecasts by 32.0% and 31.2% to RMB 37.805 billion and RMB 47.252 billion, respectively [3] - The 2024-2025 net profit forecasts are reduced by 40.2% and 43.1% to RMB 1.492 billion and RMB 2.127 billion, respectively [3] - For 2026, the company is expected to achieve revenue of RMB 61.471 billion and net profit of RMB 2.945 billion [3] Valuation - The report assigns a 20x P/E ratio for 2024, slightly above the historical average of 18x, resulting in a target price of RMB 16.70 [5] - Guoxuan High-Tech's 2024 PEG ratio is 0.36, higher than the industry average of 0.32 [5] Industry Outlook - The downstream new energy vehicle industry is experiencing a price war, leading to intensified competition in the domestic battery market [5] - The company's overseas business expansion, particularly in the US and Europe, is expected to drive future growth [1][5]

2024 年4 月17 日 高端制造: 超配 证券研究报告 / 业绩点评报告 宁德时代 (300750 CH, 买入, 目标价: RMB244.10) 1Q24 盈利超预期，经营性现金流快速增长 目标价: RMB244.10 当前股价: RMB197.14 • 1Q24 盈利能力超预期，毛利率/净利率分别为26.4%/13.2%（同比提升5.1/2.2 个百 股价上行/下行空间 +24% 分点）。 52周最高/最低价 (RMB) 251.33/140.40 市值 (US$mn) 119,808 • 多款配套宁德电池的新车型上市贡献增量，1Q24 国内动力电池装机份额提升至 当前发行数量(百万股) 4,399 48.9%；当季储能电池出货占比20%。 三个月平均日交易額 682 (US$mn) • 维持“买入”评级，目标价上调至244.10 元。 流通盘占比 (%) 88 主要股东 (%) 1Q24 盈利超预期，存货管理改善提升现金流水平。根据宁德时代1Q24 季报，公司实现 厦门瑞庭投资有限公司 23 收入797.7 亿元，同环比分别下滑10.4%/24.9%，主要由于原材料价格下滑导致销售单价 黄世霖 11 ...

s 2024 年4 月12 日 证券研究报告 / 行业更新报告 医药 医药月报（三月）：国务院发布大规模设备更新行动方 案，医疗设备四大领域或将受益 • 统计时间段内， A 股超小盘、小盘均上涨， H 股小盘、中盘均上涨。 • 2024 年医保基金监管高压态势持续，医药反腐持续推进。 • 我们预计2024 年行业业绩增长有望超过10%并将推动估值修复。 根据万得数据，统计时间段内（2024/3/10-2024/4/10）申万医药A 股（461 家）共有251 家公司上涨，按照子行业来看，涨幅数量前三的为化学制剂71 家，中药43 家，原料药31 家。统计时间段内申万医药H 股（87 家）共有39 家公司上涨，按照子行业来看，涨幅数 量前三的为其他生物制品10 家，原料药各6 家，化学制剂、医疗耗材各5 家。 本月重点新闻政策： 1）国务院发布《推动大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新行动方案》（以下简称《方 案》）。其中指出，到2027 年，工业、农业、建筑、交通、教育、文旅、医疗等领域设 备投资规模较2023 年增长25%以上。此轮《方案》明确点名医疗设备四大领域更新改造： 医学影像、放射治疗、远程诊疗、手术机器 ...

2024 年4 月12 日 食品、饮料及烟草: 中性 授权转发报告/ 业绩点评报告 百威亚太 (1876 HK, 买入, 目标价: HK$18.90) 高销量基数或令 1H24 短期承压，但全年前景保持不变 目标价: HK$18.90 当前股价: HK$10.94 • 1Q23 中韩市场销量高基数可能会拖累百威亚太1H24 销量表现。 股价上行/下行空间 +73% • 管理层预计，1Q24 平均销售价格的高个位数增长将推动毛利率进一步扩张，并维持 52周最高/最低价 (HK$) 24.85/10.40 市值 (US$mn) 18,502 正常化息税前利润率同比持平。 当前发行数量(百万股) 13,243 • 重申“买入”评级，目标价18.90 港元不变（对应 30.1 倍 2024 年 P/E）。 三个月平均日交易額 28 (US$mn) 流通盘占比 (%) 13 此港股通报告之英文版本于2024 年4 月10 日上午6 时由华兴证券（香港）发布。中 主要股东 (%) 文版由华兴证券的姜雪烽（证券分析师登记编号：S1680519070001）审核。如果您想 百威英博 87 进一步讨论本报告所述观点，请与您在华 ...