汽车汽配 2024 年 10 月 17 日 证券研究报告 / 行业更新报告 超配 中性 低配 9 月新能源汽车渗透率持续突破 50%，全年批发销量预计 达到 1,200 万辆 • 9 月新能源汽车销量同环比增长 50.5%/9.3%，渗透率连续三个月突破 50%，前 9 个 月累计渗透率达到 45.5%。 • 9 月动力电池销量和装机量环比提升 11.9%/15.5%，储能电池销量同环比持续增长； • 预计 10 月乘用车及新能源汽车补贴将持续发力， 预计全年新能源车零售/批发口径销 量将分别达到 1,060/1,200 万辆左右。 9 月整体车市同环比增长，新能源车渗透率连续三个月突破 50%。根据乘联会数据，9 月 狭义乘用车零售销量实现 210.9 万辆，同环比提升 4.5%/10.7%；批发销量实现 250.4 万 辆 ， 同 环 比 增 长 2.2%/16.2% 。 当 月 新 能 源 车 零 售 销 量 达 112.3 万 辆 ， 同 环 比 增 长 50.5%/9.3%，9 月渗透率为 52.8%（8 月渗透率为 53.5%），前 9 个月累计渗透率达到 45.5%。我们认为 9 月新能源车销量 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Logistics with a target price raised to HK$17.68 from HK$15.79, indicating a potential upside of 26% from the current price of HK$14.00 [1][5]. Core Insights - JD Logistics is expected to see a continued improvement in profit margins, with a projected increase of 2.1 percentage points, leading to a year-on-year adjusted net profit growth of 65% in Q3 2024 [1]. - Revenue growth for Q3 2024 is anticipated to be slightly below previous forecasts due to a weak macroeconomic environment, with an expected year-on-year growth of 5.4% [1][2]. - The report highlights that the company’s gross margin is projected to rise to 10.0% in Q3 2024, up from 7.9% in Q3 2023, driven by operational efficiencies and cost control measures [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 is estimated at RMB 178,442 million, reflecting a 7.1% growth compared to 2023 [2]. - Adjusted net profit for 2024 is projected to be RMB 4,291 million, representing a 116.1% increase year-on-year [2][4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is forecasted to be RMB 0.68, up from RMB 0.61, marking a 12.5% increase [4][5]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from external customers is expected to grow by 7.6% in 2024, while revenue from related parties is projected to increase by 6.0% [2]. - The contribution from JD Group is anticipated to be RMB 53,067 million in 2024, while revenue from other sources is expected to reach RMB 125,375 million [2]. Valuation - The report employs a discounted cash flow (DCF) model for valuation, maintaining a WACC of 12.1% and a perpetual growth rate of 2.0% [5]. - The stock is currently trading at a discount of 21% to the adjusted target price, with a P/E ratio of 18.7 for 2024 and a CAGR of 20.5% for EPS from 2024 to 2026 [5].

2024 年 10 月 15 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------|-----------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------- ...

2024 年 10 月 16 日 证券研究报告 / 行业更新报告 医药 超配 中性 低配 医药月报（九月）：各地相继新增辅助生殖项目至医保报 销范围；跨省结算门诊慢特病新增 5 种 • 统计时间段内，申万医药 A/H 指数均涨幅明显，我们认为受益于市场情绪好转，医药 作为超跌板块反弹迅猛。 • 各地相继将辅助生殖类项目纳入医保报销范围，利好辅助生殖产业链。 • 我们预计 2024 年行业业绩增长有望超过 10%并将推动估值修复。 根据万得数据，统计时间段内（2024/9/1-2024/9/30）申万医药 A 股共有 457 家公司上 涨，按照子行业来看，涨幅数量前三的为化学制剂 109 家，中药 72 家， 医疗耗材 43 家。 申万医药 H 股共有 84 家公司上涨，按照子行业来看，涨幅数量前三的为其他生物制品 22 家，化学制剂 13 家，医疗耗材 10 家。 本月重点新闻政策： 1）四川省医保局、山西省医保局、湖南省医保局、云南省医保局、广东省医保局等于最近 陆续发文，新增辅助生殖类医疗服务价格项目至基本医疗保险基金支付范围。我们认为， 从去年以来，各地相继将辅助生殖类项目纳入医保报销范围，利好辅助生殖 ...

2024 年 10 月 14 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------|---------------|--------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------|------------------------------------------|---------|---------| | 线上游戏: 超配 \n腾讯控股 | (700 HK, | | 买入, 目 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports with a target price of HK$108.40, representing a 4% increase from the previous target price of HK$104.20 [1]. Core Views - Anta Sports' performance in Q3 2024 was below expectations, particularly for the FILA brand, while Descente and KOLON continued to show strong growth [1]. - The company is expected to achieve its annual guidance, with a projected revenue growth of 12.4% year-on-year for 2024 [1]. - The report highlights challenges for FILA in meeting its annual targets, with anticipated revenue growth between 4.6% and 5.2% for the year [1][2]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 70,096 million, with a slight downward adjustment of 0.9% from previous estimates [2]. - Gross profit margin is expected to remain stable at 63.2% across the forecast period [2]. - Net profit for 2024 is forecasted at RMB 14,122 million, reflecting a decrease of 1.5% from earlier projections [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at RMB 4.99, down 1% from previous estimates [1][2]. Market Performance - The current stock price is HK$91.40, with an upside potential of 19% to the target price [1]. - The market capitalization of Anta Sports is approximately US$33.273 billion [1]. - The report indicates that the company's stock is trading at a P/E ratio of 16.7 for 2024, which is competitive compared to peers [3].

2024 年 9 月 24 日 耐用消费品及服装: 中性 证券研究报告 / 公司更新报告 JS 环球生活 (1691 HK, 买入, 目标价: HK$1.88) 买入 搏有 盘出 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------|-------|----------|-----------| | 目标价 : HK$1.88 | | 当前股价 | : HK$1.50 | | 股价上行/下行空间 | | | +25% | | 52 周最高 /最低价 (HK$) | | | 1.79/1.12 | | 市值 (US$mn) | | | 669 | | 当前发行数量 (百万股) | | | 3,475 | | 三个月平均日交易額 (US$mn) | | | 1 | | 流通盘占比 (%) 主要股东 (%) | | | 100 | | | | | | | JS Holding 按 2024 年 9 月 23 日收市数据 | | | 46 | | 资料来源: FactSet 主要调整 | | | | | | 现值 | 原值 | ...

2024 年 9 月 24 日 耐用消费品及服装: 中性 证券研究报告 / 公司更新报告 九阳股份 (002242 CH, 买入, 目标价: RMB11.00) 买入 搏有 盘出 遭遇阶段性发展瓶颈，再次考验多品类扩张能力 • 国内厨小电市场步入成熟期，我们预计九阳 2024 年营收同比增长 2.9%； | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------| | 目标价 : RMB11.00 | 当前股价 : RMB9.24 | | 股价上行/下行空间 | +19% | | 52 周最高/最低价 (RMB) | 14.50/8.68 | | 市值 (US$mn) | 1,004 | | 当前发行数量 (百万股) | 767 | | 三个月平均日交易額 (US$mn) | 5 | | 流通盘占比 (%) (%) | 100 | | 主要股东 | | | 上海力鸿企业管理有限公 司 | 50 | | BILTING DEVELOPM ...

s | --- | --- | |--------|------------------------------| | | 2024 年 9 月 24 日 | | | 证券研究报告 / 行业更新报告 | | 半导体 | | 超配 中性 低配 IDAS 设计自动化产业峰会 • EDA 设计布局更加"左侧"。 • 我们愈发认为建立行业标准并统一模型参数规格对 EDA 行业健康发展十分重要。 • 我们看到 DTCO 系统与制造端和设计端的融合更加明显。 我们参加了 2024 年 9 月 23-24 日在上海举办的 IDAS 设计自动化产业峰会。本次峰会主 要分享了 EDA 行业针对模拟芯片、数字芯片、存储器、Chiplet&先进封装、晶圆制造等环 节应用的最新进展。从本次会议中，根据本次产业峰会，我们看到的主要更新有：1）芯片 设计环节：更加强调设计人员左侧布局，更早规划封装设计及芯粒库模型的标准制定；2） Chiplet&封装环节: Chiplet 带来的挑战之一是芯片间的热影响和电磁干扰问题。EDA 工具 需要进一步完善电磁和热仿真分析的能力提升竞争力；3）芯片测试环节：国内头部厂商认 为芯片测试和封装的界限正 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of US$19.71, indicating a potential upside of 66% from the current price of US$11.91 [1][4]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a key beneficiary in the rapidly developing low-altitude economy, particularly with the commercialization of eVTOL (Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing) aircraft. The EH216-S model has received all necessary certifications, marking a significant milestone for commercial operations [3][11]. - The report forecasts strong sales growth for the EH216-S, with projected deliveries of 190, 400, and 700 units from 2024 to 2026, respectively, leading to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 138% [2][13]. - Financial projections indicate substantial revenue growth, with total revenues expected to reach RMB 4.38 billion, RMB 9.04 billion, and RMB 15.67 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 272.6%, 106.5%, and 73.4% [6][13]. Summary by Sections Investment Overview - The report highlights the acceleration of eVTOL commercialization as a turning point for the low-altitude economy, with the company being a leading player in this sector. The EH216-S has become the first eVTOL to receive the necessary certifications for commercial operation [11][14]. Product Strength and Market Demand - The EH216-S is noted for its competitive advantages, including a compact design, cost-effective operation due to its unmanned nature, and strong market demand, with over 1,100 orders already secured [12][34]. - The report emphasizes the expected demand for eVTOLs in various applications, particularly in tourism and urban air mobility, with a long-term forecast suggesting a domestic demand exceeding 100,000 units [18][21]. Financial Analysis - The financial outlook includes a narrowing of net losses, with projections of RMB 2.03 billion and RMB 1.26 billion for 2024 and 2025, respectively, and a return to profitability with a net profit of RMB 1.42 billion by 2026 [6][13]. - The valuation is based on a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 10 times the 2025 forecast, leading to the target price of US$19.71 [4][13]. Government Support and Market Environment - The report notes significant government support for the low-altitude economy, which is expected to create a favorable environment for the company's growth and the broader eVTOL market [23][24]. - The EH216-S's early certification provides a competitive edge, as it is currently the only eVTOL capable of commercial operation, while competitors are still in the certification process [25][27].