Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Hold" rating to the company with a target price of RMB 25.90, reflecting a 15% decrease from the previous target price of RMB 30.62 [1][2] Core Insights - The company's performance in the first three quarters of 2024 was below expectations, with revenue and net profit declining by 6.8% and 12.4% year-on-year, respectively [1][2] - The "old-for-new" policy has shown significant effects, but there is still a lack of long-term logic, leading to concerns about the risk-reward ratio [1][2] - The company is expected to see a revenue growth of 3% year-on-year in Q4 2024, driven by the "old-for-new" policy and improved online channel revenue growth [1][2] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024E is adjusted to RMB 10,749 million, a decrease of 14.1% from previous estimates [2] - The net profit for 2024E is revised down to RMB 1,662 million, reflecting a 25.7% reduction [2] - The EPS for 2024E is adjusted to RMB 1.76, down 25.3% from earlier projections [2] Market Position and Valuation - The current market capitalization of the company is approximately USD 3,199 million [1] - The company’s P/E ratio for 2025E is projected at 14 times, with a target price corresponding to this valuation [1][2] - The stock price has a potential upside of 8% from the current price of RMB 24.07 [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HK$6.95, representing a 24% increase from the previous target price of HK$5.61 [1][7]. Core Insights - The company's brand, Xtep, has shown a month-to-date (MTD) revenue growth of over 10% in October, indicating a strong performance that is expected to meet the annual guidance [4][6]. - For the fiscal year 2024, the overall revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company are projected to grow by 1.5% and 21.3%, reaching RMB 14.56 billion and RMB 1.25 billion, respectively [6][9]. - The report highlights that the company's inventory and discount levels are healthy, with expectations for continued improvement in gross margin [5][6]. Financial Projections - The revenue forecast for 2024 has been adjusted to RMB 14.56 billion, reflecting a 3.6% decrease from previous estimates, while the net profit forecast has been adjusted to RMB 1.25 billion, a decrease of 3.0% [9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at RMB 0.47, with subsequent years showing growth to RMB 0.53 in 2025 and RMB 0.59 in 2026 [8][9]. - The report anticipates a gross margin improvement of 2.1 percentage points to 44.2% for 2024, alongside a net profit margin increase of 1.4 percentage points to 8.6% [6][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Eve Energy (300014 CH) with a target price of RMB64.30, representing a 30% upside from the current price of RMB49.44 [1][2] - The target price has been revised upward by 16% from RMB55.30 to RMB64.30 [2] Core Views - Eve Energy's 3Q24 gross margin improved significantly to 19.0%, driven by higher capacity utilization in power and energy storage batteries, as well as lower raw material costs [4] - The company's overseas energy storage business is expected to grow significantly in 2025/26, with the first global cooperative project (ACT) progressing smoothly [5] - The report forecasts a 40.2% YoY growth in net profit attributable to shareholders in 2025, supported by improving capacity utilization and strong demand for energy storage and consumer batteries [6] Financial Performance - 3Q24 revenue was RMB12.39 billion, down 1.3% YoY but up 0.4% QoQ [4] - 3Q24 gross profit reached RMB2.355 billion, with a gross margin of 19.0%, up 3.4 percentage points QoQ [4] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders grew 25.5% QoQ to RMB1.0 billion in 3Q24 [4] - The company's energy storage battery shipments reached 35.7GWh in the first three quarters of 2024, up 115.6% YoY [5] Business Outlook - Power battery shipments are expected to increase in 4Q24 with new customer Leapmotor's volume contribution [5] - The ACT project, a joint venture with Cummins, Daimler Truck, and PACCAR, is on track to start production in 2026 with an annual capacity of 21GWh [5] - Consumer batteries have been operating at full capacity for six consecutive months, with the Malaysia factory progressing well [5] Valuation - The battery business is valued at 19x 2025E P/E, implying a valuation of RMB112.4 billion [11][12] - Including the stake in Smoore International, the total valuation is RMB131.6 billion, leading to the target price of RMB64.30 [11][12] - The 2025E EPS is forecasted at RMB3.19, representing a 40.2% YoY growth [6][12] Peer Comparison - Eve Energy's 2025E P/E of 15.5x is slightly below the peer average of 19x, with a PEG ratio of 0.39 [13] - The company's valuation multiples are comparable to industry leaders like CATL (22x 2024E P/E) and Gotion High-Tech (28x 2024E P/E) [13]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Micron Technology (MU US) and sets a target price of $148.00 [1][5][6]. Core Insights - Micron is expected to rapidly iterate its HBM products, leading to revenue and profit margins that may exceed expectations [1]. - The HBM business market share is projected to continue increasing from 2024 to 2026, with significant capital expenditures planned to enhance production capacity [2][16]. - The high demand for HBM products, particularly driven by AI applications, is anticipated to support pricing stability in the high-end segment [3][15]. - Operating profit margins for Micron are expected to improve significantly in the 2025 and 2026 fiscal years, driven by a higher contribution from HBM revenue and recovery in DRAM and NAND margins [4][17]. Summary by Sections HBM Business Outlook - Micron's HBM market share is expected to rise to 11% by 2025, supported by increased capital expenditures and advancements in HBM3E and HBM4 technologies [2][16]. - The global demand for HBM driven by AI chips is projected to reach 23.6 billion GB by the end of 2025, while supply from Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix is expected to be 20.1 billion GB, indicating a supply shortage [3][15]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for Micron show significant growth, with expected revenues of $38.65 billion in 2025 and $44.85 billion in 2026 [5][8]. - The GAAP operating profit margin is projected to reach 27.5% in 2025 and 32.0% in 2026, driven by an increase in HBM revenue contribution [4][17]. Valuation and Target Price - The target price of $148.00 reflects a substantial upside potential of 41% from the current price of $105.05, based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation approach [5][6][19]. - The valuation includes estimates for DRAM, NAND, and other business segments, along with net cash of $9.08 billion [19]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the high-end HBM products will remain in short supply through 2025-2026, supporting price stability [3][15]. - Micron's strategy includes a focus on long-term contracts with customers, which has increased the predictability of revenue and operational stability [28][30]. Product Development and Innovation - Micron is advancing its product offerings by skipping HBM3 and directly developing HBM3E and HBM4, with successful validation from Nvidia [18][34]. - The company is also enhancing its production efficiency and reducing costs through technological innovations in DRAM and NAND manufacturing processes [24][26].

Investment Rating - Tesla (TSLA US) is rated as "Buy" with a target price of US$270 00, indicating a 26% upside potential from the current price of US$213 65 [2] Core Views - Tesla's 3Q24 gross margin improved significantly to 19 8%, up 1 8/1 9 percentage points YoY/QoQ, driven by a 4 6% QoQ reduction in vehicle cost to US$35,106 [3] - Elon Musk expects 20-30% growth in new vehicle sales in 2025, with Cybercab production reaching 2 million units annually in the future [3][4] - Tesla plans to launch a cheaper model priced below US$30,000 in 2025, and FSD V13 is expected to be released soon, improving intervention intervals by 5-6 times [4] - The Lathrop factory is rapidly developing, and the Shanghai factory is expected to start shipments in 1Q25, with fixed energy storage product capacity reaching 100GWh annually [4] Financial Performance - 3Q24 revenue was US$25 18 billion, up 7 8% YoY but down 1 2% QoQ, with operating profit reaching US$2 72 billion, up 54 0%/69 3% YoY/QoQ [3] - 3Q24 GAAP/non-GAAP net income was US$2 17/2 51 billion, up 16 9%/8 1% YoY, with operating cash flow and free cash flow at US$6 26/2 74 billion [3] - 2024E/2025E/2026E EPS is forecasted at US$2 82/3 54/4 51, with 2024E EPS revised up by 7% [2] - 2024E/2025E/2026E revenue is projected at US$98 87/117 18/140 12 billion, with non-GAAP net income at US$9 05/12 21/15 56 billion [4][7] Valuation - Tesla's 2024E P/E for the automotive business is maintained at 90x, while the energy storage business is valued at 10x P/S, resulting in a target price of US$270 00 [8][9] - The automotive business is valued at US$708 82 billion, energy storage at US$96 13 billion, and services/other at US$52 51 billion, totaling US$857 46 billion [9] Industry Outlook - The automotive and auto parts sector is rated as "Overweight" [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning with a target price of HK$19.30, indicating a potential upside of 25% from the current price of HK$15.50 [1]. Core Insights - The establishment of a joint venture is seen as beneficial for Li Ning, allowing the company to focus on the domestic market while leveraging external expertise for overseas expansion. The joint venture aims to achieve revenue of US$1 billion in its fourth year, reflecting the company's commitment to international growth [4][5]. - Li Ning's overseas business currently accounts for approximately 2% of total revenue, with expectations for significant growth through the joint venture [4]. - The financial projections indicate a modest revenue growth of 2.2% in 2024, with further increases of 3.9% and 3.6% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [5][6]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Li Ning are as follows: RMB 28.2 billion in 2024, RMB 29.3 billion in 2025, and RMB 30.4 billion in 2026, with corresponding net profits of RMB 3.08 billion, RMB 3.28 billion, and RMB 3.47 billion [6][7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be RMB 1.19 for 2024, RMB 1.27 for 2025, and RMB 1.34 for 2026, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14 times for 2025 [1][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning with a target price of HK$19.30, representing a potential upside of 26% from the current price of HK$15.28 [1][4]. Core Insights - The report indicates that Li Ning's 3Q24 operational performance met expectations, with projected revenue and net profit for 2024 expected to grow by 2.2% and decline by 3.3% respectively, reaching RMB 28.22 billion and RMB 3.08 billion [4][5]. - The report maintains earnings forecasts and the "Buy" rating, with a target price of HK$19.30, corresponding to a 14x P/E ratio for 2025 [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - 3Q24 results showed a slight decline in overall revenue (excluding Li Ning Young), with online sales growing while offline sales faced a decline [4]. - The report forecasts a 0.2% increase in total revenue for 2024, driven by a strong performance in professional channels and a low base effect for the upcoming quarter [5]. - The projected revenue figures for 2024-2026 are RMB 28.22 billion, RMB 29.33 billion, and RMB 30.38 billion respectively, with net profits expected to be RMB 3.08 billion, RMB 3.28 billion, and RMB 3.47 billion [6][7]. Earnings Forecast - The report anticipates a slight decrease in gross margin for 2024, with an expected increase in sales and management expense ratios due to higher marketing expenditures and depreciation costs [5]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are RMB 1.19, RMB 1.27, and RMB 1.34 respectively [6][7]. Market Position - Li Ning's market strategy includes increasing retail discounts to attract customers, while online discounts have shown improvement [5]. - The report highlights the importance of maintaining a healthy inventory structure, with over 80% of products having a shelf life of less than six months [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price raised to RMB 301.00 from RMB 251.30, indicating a potential upside of 19% from the current price of RMB 253.36 [1][5]. Core Insights - The company has exceeded market expectations with a significant increase in gross margin, reaching 31.2% in Q3 2024, driven by a decline in raw material costs and the introduction of new high-margin products [1][3]. - Despite a year-on-year revenue decline of 12.5% in Q3 2024, the company reported a net profit of RMB 13.1 billion, reflecting a 26% increase compared to the previous quarter [2][3]. - The company continues to strengthen its market position through the launch of innovative products, with Q3 2024 battery shipments reaching 125 GWh, of which 20% were for energy storage [1][3]. Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2024 revenue was RMB 92.3 billion, down 12.5% year-on-year but up 6.1% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - Gross profit for Q3 2024 was RMB 28.8 billion, with a gross margin of 31.2%, an increase of 8.7 percentage points year-on-year [2][3]. - The company reported a net profit of RMB 13.1 billion in Q3 2024, a 26% increase from the previous quarter [2][3]. Earnings Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2024-2026 has been adjusted to RMB 363.7 billion, RMB 405.9 billion, and RMB 444.9 billion, respectively, reflecting a downward revision due to declining battery prices [3][4]. - The gross margin is expected to improve to 28.3%, 28.7%, and 29.0% for 2024-2026, respectively, as the company focuses on high-margin products [3][4]. - The net profit forecast for 2024-2026 has been raised to RMB 511.4 billion, RMB 630.5 billion, and RMB 712.3 billion, indicating a year-on-year growth of 15.9%, 23.3%, and 13.0% [3][4]. Valuation - The company is assigned a valuation of 21 times P/E for 2025, compared to an average of 12 times for comparable companies, supporting the target price of RMB 301.00 [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the automotive parts industry [2]. Core Insights - In September, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) exceeded 50% for the third consecutive month, with wholesale sales expected to reach 12 million units for the year [2]. - The sales of power batteries and installed capacity increased by 11.9% and 15.5% month-on-month, respectively, indicating a strong growth trend in the battery sector [3]. - The report anticipates continued support for NEV subsidies in October, projecting retail and wholesale sales of NEVs to reach approximately 10.6 million and 12 million units, respectively, for the year, reflecting year-on-year growth of 36.8% and 35.4% [3]. Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicle Sales - In September, retail sales of narrow-sense passenger vehicles reached 2.109 million units, a month-on-month increase of 4.5% and a year-on-year increase of 10.7% [2]. - NEV retail sales in September reached 1.123 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 50.5% and a month-on-month growth of 9.3%, resulting in a penetration rate of 52.8% [2]. - Cumulative retail and wholesale sales of NEVs from January to September were 7.135 million and 7.839 million units, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 37.4% and 32.7% [2]. Battery Sales and Installed Capacity - In September, the total sales of power and energy storage batteries reached 103.9 GWh, with a year-on-year growth of 44.8% and a month-on-month growth of 11.9% [3]. - Power battery sales accounted for 76.6 GWh, representing 73.7% of total sales, while energy storage battery sales reached 27.3 GWh, showing a year-on-year growth of 114.1% [3]. - The cumulative sales of power and energy storage batteries from January to September were 685.7 GWh, with a year-on-year growth of 42.5% [3]. Market Trends and Policies - The report highlights the impact of the "old-for-new" vehicle replacement policy, which has significantly boosted NEV sales, particularly during the festive periods [2]. - As of October 4, 2024, a total of 1.258 million applications for subsidies under the vehicle replacement program had been received, with 62% of these applications for green energy NEVs [3]. - The report notes that the overall automotive market is expected to see stable month-on-month growth in October, driven by seasonal factors and rural demand [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Logistics with a target price raised to HK$17.68 from HK$15.79, indicating a potential upside of 26% from the current price of HK$14.00 [1][5]. Core Insights - JD Logistics is expected to see a continued improvement in profit margins, with a projected increase of 2.1 percentage points, leading to a year-on-year adjusted net profit growth of 65% in Q3 2024 [1]. - Revenue growth for Q3 2024 is anticipated to be slightly below previous forecasts due to a weak macroeconomic environment, with an expected year-on-year growth of 5.4% [1][2]. - The report highlights that the company’s gross margin is projected to rise to 10.0% in Q3 2024, up from 7.9% in Q3 2023, driven by operational efficiencies and cost control measures [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 is estimated at RMB 178,442 million, reflecting a 7.1% growth compared to 2023 [2]. - Adjusted net profit for 2024 is projected to be RMB 4,291 million, representing a 116.1% increase year-on-year [2][4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is forecasted to be RMB 0.68, up from RMB 0.61, marking a 12.5% increase [4][5]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from external customers is expected to grow by 7.6% in 2024, while revenue from related parties is projected to increase by 6.0% [2]. - The contribution from JD Group is anticipated to be RMB 53,067 million in 2024, while revenue from other sources is expected to reach RMB 125,375 million [2]. Valuation - The report employs a discounted cash flow (DCF) model for valuation, maintaining a WACC of 12.1% and a perpetual growth rate of 2.0% [5]. - The stock is currently trading at a discount of 21% to the adjusted target price, with a P/E ratio of 18.7 for 2024 and a CAGR of 20.5% for EPS from 2024 to 2026 [5].