Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company with a target price raised to HK$41.46, reflecting a 10% upside potential from the current price of HK$37.65 [1][4]. Core Insights - The company has reported strong preliminary earnings for 1H24, with revenue and net profit both showing significant growth, attributed to successful overseas expansion and improved operational leverage [1][2]. - Revenue is expected to grow by no less than 55% year-on-year, while net profit (excluding fair value changes of financial assets) is projected to increase by no less than 90% [1][2]. - The company’s overseas market revenue is anticipated to grow by 241% year-on-year, driven by a substantial increase in store count and strong same-store sales growth [1][4]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E have been adjusted upwards by 16.5%, 17.7%, and 18.8% respectively, reflecting better-than-expected overseas expansion and domestic sales [2][4]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E have been increased by 41.1%, 46.4%, and 56.1% respectively, due to improved cost control and operational efficiency [2][4]. - The adjusted EPS for 2024E is projected at RMB 1.50, increasing to RMB 1.86 for 2025E and RMB 2.21 for 2026E [1][2]. Valuation - The valuation method used is the P/E ratio, with a new target multiple of 20.3 times the 2025 P/E, which is a premium of 20% over the average P/E of international peers [4]. - The report indicates that the current trading multiple of 18.4 times the 2025 P/E is reasonable compared to industry peers [4][5].

2024 年 7 月 12 日 证券研究报告 / 行业更新报告 汽车汽配 6 月新能源汽车渗透率持续提升至 48.1%,自动驾驶利好有望 促进 7 月新能源汽车销量稳中有升 • 6 月新能源汽车销量同环比持续提升,渗透率持续提升至 48.1%。 • 6 月动力+储能电池销量稳步提升,上半年储能电池出口量累计同比增长 106.7%。 • 7 月燃油车有望提升出口比例,持续看好国内新能源汽车渗透率稳中有升。 6 月新能源汽车销量同环比持续提升,渗透率持续提升至 48.1%。根据乘联会数据,6 月 狭义乘用车零售销量实现 177.9 万辆,同比下滑 6.9%,环比提升 4.0%;批发销量实现 218.6 万辆,同比下滑 3.1%,环比提升 7.6%。当月新能源车零售销量达 85.6 万辆,同环 比提升 28.7%/6.5%,6 月渗透率为 48.1%(5 月渗透率为 46.7%),1-6 月累计渗透率提 升至 41.4%。我们认为 6 月新能源车销量及渗透率稳步提升的原因主要系新能源车企新品 不断且促销活动较多,侵蚀了国内部分同价位处于去库存阶段、且缺乏新品支撑的燃油车 市场。1-6 月国内累计新能源车批发和零售销 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports with a target price of HK$101.85, reflecting a 4% decrease from the previous target price of HK$105.55 [1][3]. Core Insights - Anta Sports is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 10.4% year-on-year in 1H24, with net profit attributable to shareholders benefiting from the listing of Amer Sports, projected to increase by 51.1% [3]. - The Anta brand is anticipated to meet its annual guidance, while the FILA brand may face some pressure [3]. - The report forecasts a revenue increase for Anta Sports of 11.8% and a net profit increase of 25.6% for the full year 2024, reaching RMB 697.2 billion and RMB 128.6 billion, respectively [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 69.723 billion, with a net profit of RMB 12.859 billion, translating to an EPS of RMB 4.54 [5][6]. - The report adjusts the revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 downwards by 0.8%, 1.4%, and 2.0%, respectively, while net profit forecasts are adjusted upwards by 2.3% for 2024 and downwards for 2025 and 2026 [4][6]. - The expected P/E ratio for 2025 is maintained at 20 times, corresponding to the new target price of HK$101.85, which still offers a 48% upside potential from the current price of HK$69.00 [2][4]. Brand Performance - The Anta brand is projected to achieve a revenue growth of 12.5% in 2H24 and 10.0% for the full year 2024, driven by successful product launches and marketing strategies [3][4]. - FILA's revenue growth is expected to slow down, with a forecast of 10.7% growth in 2H24 and 9.0% for the full year 2024, indicating potential challenges [4]. - Other brands under Anta are expected to see significant growth, with a projected revenue increase of 35%-40% in 1H24 [3].

2024 年 7 月 15 日 耐用消费品及服装: 超配 证券研究报告 / 公司更新报告 特步国际 (1368 HK, 买入, 目标价: HK$6.05) | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|-------|-----------| | 目标价: HK$6.05 | | : HK$5.21 | | 股价上行/下行空间 | | +16% | | 52 周最高/最低价 (HK$) | | 9.38/3.61 | | 市值 (US$mn) | | 1,765 | | 当前发行数量(百万股) | | 2,645 | | 三个月平均日交易額 (US$mn) | | 6 | | 流通盘占比 (%) | | 100 | | 主要股东 (%) | | | | 群成投资 | | 47 | | 按 2024 年 7 月 12 日收市数据 | | | | 资料来源: FactSet | | | | 主要调整 | | | | | 原值 | 变动 | | 评级 | 买入 | N/A | | 目标价 (HK$) | 6.72 | -10% | | 2024E EPS ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Li Ning (2331 HK) with a target price of HK$26.55, representing a 71% upside from the current price of HK$15.50 [1] Core Views - Li Ning's 1H24 revenue is expected to grow by 2.0% YoY to RMB 14.3 billion, while net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decline by 14.9% YoY to RMB 1.81 billion [1] - For the full year 2024, revenue and net profit are forecasted to grow by 5.2% and 5.1% YoY, reaching RMB 29.03 billion and RMB 3.35 billion, respectively [1] - The company is expected to maintain a gross margin of 49.4% in 1H24, up 0.6 percentage points YoY, driven by improved discount rates [1] - Li Ning is focusing on expanding its product line in the RMB 399-599 price range and adopting a "one county, one strategy" approach to penetrate lower-tier cities [1] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 27.6 billion in 2023 to RMB 32.6 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 5.7% [1] - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 3.19 billion in 2023 to RMB 4.02 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 8.1% [1] - The company's gross margin is forecasted to improve from 48.4% in 2023 to 50.0% in 2026 [2] Valuation - The target price of HK$26.55 implies a 17x 2025 P/E ratio [1] - Current valuation metrics show a 2024E P/E of 10.9x, P/B of 1.4x, and P/S of 1.3x [2] Industry Outlook - The report assigns an **Overweight** rating to the Consumer Durables & Apparel sector, indicating expected outperformance relative to the market [1] Key Drivers - Li Ning's running shoe matrix is performing well, with continued iterations of flagship products like Jueying and Dilu [1] - The company is adjusting its basketball shoe offerings to cater to the consumption downgrade trend, introducing products priced between RMB 499-699 [1] - Channel reforms are underway, with a focus on expanding in lower-tier cities through tailored strategies [1]

汽车汽配: 超配 证券研究报告 / 评级更新报告 特斯拉 (TSLA US, 买入, 目标价: US$282.13) | 目标价 : US$282.13 | | : US$246.39 | |------------------------------|--------|---------------| | 股价上行/下行空间 | | +15% | | 52 周最高/最低价 (US$) | | 299.29/138.80 | | 市值 (US$mn) | | 781,919 | | 当前发行数量(百万股 ) | | 3,174 | | 三个月平均日交易額 (US$mn) | | 16,235 | | 流通盘占比 (%) | | 100 | | 主要股东 (%) | | | | Elon Musk | | 21 | | The Vanguard Group | | 7 | | Blackrock | | 6 | | 按 2024 年 7 月 3 日收市数据 | | | | 资料来源: FactSet | | | | 主要调整 | | | | | 原值 | 变动 | | 评级 | 持有 | ↑ | | 目标价 ( ...

2024 年 7 月 4 日 证券研究报告 / 行业更新报告 医药 医药月报(六月):江苏将辅助生殖项目加入医保报销 • 统计时间段内,申万 A/H 各市值区间均有所下跌。 • 辅助生殖、减肥药行业(如 GLP-1 靶向药)有望受益于政策支持。 • 我们预计 2024 年行业业绩增长有望超过 10%并将推动估值修复。 根据万得数据,统计时间段内(2024/6/1-2024/6/30)申万医药 A 股(461 家)共有 32 家公司上涨,按照子行业来看,涨幅数量前三的为化学制剂 7 家,中药 6 家,原料药 5 家。统计时间段内申万医药 H 股(87 家)共有 23 家公司上涨,按照子行业来看,涨幅数 量前三的为其他生物制品 8 家,化学制剂 6 家,原料药、医疗耗材、医药流通 2 家。 本月重点新闻政策: 1)江苏 13 个辅助生殖类医疗项目、无痛分娩专用项目纳入医保。我们认为,随着不断有 新的地区发布政策将辅助生殖纳入医保,利好于行业发展。截至目前,覆盖的区域包括北 京、广西、甘肃、内蒙古、重庆、江苏等。 2 国家卫生健康委等 16 个部门联合制定了《"体重管理年"活动实施方案》。要点包括: 加强科学普及和 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC (1876 HK) with a target price of HK$15.20, down from HK$16.52, reflecting an 8% decrease [1][4][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Budweiser APAC's revenue for Q2 2024 is expected to decline by 2.3% year-on-year, primarily due to weakness in the Chinese beer market, although this is partially offset by a recovery in the South Korean market [4][5]. - The normalized EBITDA for Q2 2024 is projected to grow by 4.5%, driven by cost efficiencies and effective marketing expense management [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the need for a recovery in consumer sentiment in China, as the company's performance is significantly impacted by the sluggish beer market in the region [4][5]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024E are set at US$6,864 million, with a slight decrease of 0.6% from previous estimates [9]. - Adjusted net profit for 2024E is forecasted at US$995 million, reflecting a minor reduction of 0.3% [9]. - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, including expected EPS of US$0.07 for 2024E, unchanged from previous estimates [6][9]. Market Performance - The current stock price is HK$9.20, indicating a potential upside of 65% to the target price [2]. - The market capitalization of Budweiser APAC is reported at US$15,606 million, with a three-month average daily trading volume of US$20 million [2][3]. Regional Insights - The report notes that Budweiser APAC's sales in the Chinese market are expected to decline, while the South Korean market is anticipated to show recovery, benefiting from previous price increases and a low base effect [5][4]. - The average selling price in the South Korean market is expected to rise due to effective pricing strategies implemented in Q4 2023 [5]. Valuation - The report values Budweiser APAC at a P/E ratio of 26.0x for 2024, which is lower than the previous estimate of 28.2x, indicating a more attractive valuation compared to historical averages [10].

Investment Rating and Target Price - The report initiates coverage on Shenwei Pharmaceutical (2877 HK) with a **Buy** rating and a target price of HK$19.30 [1][4] - The target price implies an upside potential of **+151%** from the current price of HK$7.69 [2] - The target price corresponds to a 2024 P/E of 12x, in line with the average of comparable companies in the Hong Kong market [5] Core Investment Thesis - Shenwei Pharmaceutical is a mature traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) manufacturer with a robust product portfolio, including injections, TCM formula granules, granules, and soft capsules [4][13] - The company is expected to achieve a **15% CAGR in revenue** and **13% CAGR in net profit** from 2023 to 2026, driven by growth in TCM formula granules and granule segments [4][13] - The company has a strong shareholder return profile, with a historical dividend payout ratio of 40%-50% and an average dividend yield of 4.5% from 2014 to 2023, ranking 6th among 87 healthcare H-shares [4][12] - Free cash flow is expected to remain robust, supporting a potential increase in dividend payout, with projected dividend yields of 7.8%/8.6%/10.0% for 2024-26 [4][12] Key Business Segments and Growth Drivers TCM Formula Granules - TCM formula granules are expected to be a major growth driver, with a projected **20% CAGR in revenue** from 2023 to 2026 [4][13] - The company won all 200 bids in the first national TCM formula granules centralized procurement, which is expected to facilitate nationwide expansion [13][45] - The company plans to expand into new markets such as Beijing, Tianjin, Shandong, and Anhui, leveraging its cost control and operational efficiency advantages [13][45] - The segment is expected to maintain a high gross margin of around 74%, benefiting from the company's early price adjustments and efficient operations [13][45] Injections - The injection segment, which accounted for 39.5% of 2023 revenue, is expected to grow at a **5% CAGR** from 2023 to 2026, driven by the lifting of payment restrictions on five key injection products [13][15] - The core product, Qingkailing Injection, saw a 75% YoY revenue growth in 2023 due to increased demand during the flu season, but is expected to decline in 2024 due to a high base effect [15][41] - The company's injection products are expected to benefit from increased acceptance and reduced adverse reaction rates, supported by stricter regulatory standards [22][26] Granules - The granule segment, contributing 15.4% of 2023 revenue, is expected to grow at a **21% CAGR** from 2023 to 2026, driven by the company's exclusive product, Huamoyan Granules [13][55] - Huamoyan Granules, the only approved TCM for synovitis treatment, is expected to see strong growth as the company increases marketing efforts post-anti-corruption measures [55][57] Soft Capsules - The soft capsule segment is expected to grow at a **15% CAGR** from 2023 to 2026, driven by products like Huoxiang Zhengqi Soft Capsules and Jiangzhi Tongluo Soft Capsules [13] Industry Catalysts and Policy Support - The TCM industry is expected to benefit from favorable policies, including potential inclusion of more TCM products in the National Essential Drug List and continued support for TCM in the healthcare system [4][13] - The lifting of payment restrictions on five injection products in the 2023 National Reimbursement Drug List is expected to drive volume growth [15][16] - Stricter regulatory standards for TCM injections are expected to improve product quality and patient acceptance, benefiting established players like Shenwei Pharmaceutical [22][26] Valuation and Peer Comparison - The target price of HK$19.30 implies a 2024 P/E of 12x, in line with the average of comparable companies in the Hong Kong market [5] - The company's current 2024 P/E of 5.4x is significantly lower than the peer average of 12x, suggesting potential for valuation re-rating [10] - Shenwei Pharmaceutical's strong free cash flow generation and high dividend yield make it an attractive investment in the TCM sector [4][12]

s 证券研究报告 / 行业更新报告 5 月新能源车渗透率达到 46.7%,欧盟反补贴关税可能影 响中国车企短期出口前景 • 5 月新能源车零售销量达 80.4 万辆,同环比增长 38.6%/18.8%,5 月渗透率为 46.7%。 • 5 月动力+储能电池产销稳步提升,储能电池同环比出口大幅增长。 • 欧盟反补贴初裁结果对中国车企影响有限,对电池企业无影响。 5 月购车政策提前退出促进新能源车销量同环比提升。根据乘联会数据,5 月狭义乘用车 零售销量实现 171.0 万辆,同比下滑 3.0%,环比提升 11.4%;批发销量实现 203.1 万辆, 同 环 比 提 升 0.6%/7.9% 。 当 月 新 能 源 车 零 售 销 量 达 80.4 万 辆 , 同 环 比 提 升 38.6%/18.8%,5 月渗透率为 46.7%(4 月渗透率为 43.5%),1-5 月累计渗透率提升至 39.9%。我们认为 5 月新能源车销量增长主要系新能源车车购税优惠政策自 6 月 1 日起剔 除 200 公里以下微型电动车等入门车型,因而 5 月车购税优惠政策退出前的抢上牌因素促 进 了 新 能 源 市 场 的 持 续 增 ...