Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Micron Technology (MU US) and sets a target price of $148.00 [1][5][6]. Core Insights - Micron is expected to rapidly iterate its HBM products, leading to revenue and profit margins that may exceed expectations [1]. - The HBM business market share is projected to continue increasing from 2024 to 2026, with significant capital expenditures planned to enhance production capacity [2][16]. - The high demand for HBM products, particularly driven by AI applications, is anticipated to support pricing stability in the high-end segment [3][15]. - Operating profit margins for Micron are expected to improve significantly in the 2025 and 2026 fiscal years, driven by a higher contribution from HBM revenue and recovery in DRAM and NAND margins [4][17]. Summary by Sections HBM Business Outlook - Micron's HBM market share is expected to rise to 11% by 2025, supported by increased capital expenditures and advancements in HBM3E and HBM4 technologies [2][16]. - The global demand for HBM driven by AI chips is projected to reach 23.6 billion GB by the end of 2025, while supply from Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix is expected to be 20.1 billion GB, indicating a supply shortage [3][15]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for Micron show significant growth, with expected revenues of $38.65 billion in 2025 and $44.85 billion in 2026 [5][8]. - The GAAP operating profit margin is projected to reach 27.5% in 2025 and 32.0% in 2026, driven by an increase in HBM revenue contribution [4][17]. Valuation and Target Price - The target price of $148.00 reflects a substantial upside potential of 41% from the current price of $105.05, based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation approach [5][6][19]. - The valuation includes estimates for DRAM, NAND, and other business segments, along with net cash of $9.08 billion [19]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the high-end HBM products will remain in short supply through 2025-2026, supporting price stability [3][15]. - Micron's strategy includes a focus on long-term contracts with customers, which has increased the predictability of revenue and operational stability [28][30]. Product Development and Innovation - Micron is advancing its product offerings by skipping HBM3 and directly developing HBM3E and HBM4, with successful validation from Nvidia [18][34]. - The company is also enhancing its production efficiency and reducing costs through technological innovations in DRAM and NAND manufacturing processes [24][26].

Investment Rating - Tesla (TSLA US) is rated as "Buy" with a target price of US$270 00, indicating a 26% upside potential from the current price of US$213 65 [2] Core Views - Tesla's 3Q24 gross margin improved significantly to 19 8%, up 1 8/1 9 percentage points YoY/QoQ, driven by a 4 6% QoQ reduction in vehicle cost to US$35,106 [3] - Elon Musk expects 20-30% growth in new vehicle sales in 2025, with Cybercab production reaching 2 million units annually in the future [3][4] - Tesla plans to launch a cheaper model priced below US$30,000 in 2025, and FSD V13 is expected to be released soon, improving intervention intervals by 5-6 times [4] - The Lathrop factory is rapidly developing, and the Shanghai factory is expected to start shipments in 1Q25, with fixed energy storage product capacity reaching 100GWh annually [4] Financial Performance - 3Q24 revenue was US$25 18 billion, up 7 8% YoY but down 1 2% QoQ, with operating profit reaching US$2 72 billion, up 54 0%/69 3% YoY/QoQ [3] - 3Q24 GAAP/non-GAAP net income was US$2 17/2 51 billion, up 16 9%/8 1% YoY, with operating cash flow and free cash flow at US$6 26/2 74 billion [3] - 2024E/2025E/2026E EPS is forecasted at US$2 82/3 54/4 51, with 2024E EPS revised up by 7% [2] - 2024E/2025E/2026E revenue is projected at US$98 87/117 18/140 12 billion, with non-GAAP net income at US$9 05/12 21/15 56 billion [4][7] Valuation - Tesla's 2024E P/E for the automotive business is maintained at 90x, while the energy storage business is valued at 10x P/S, resulting in a target price of US$270 00 [8][9] - The automotive business is valued at US$708 82 billion, energy storage at US$96 13 billion, and services/other at US$52 51 billion, totaling US$857 46 billion [9] Industry Outlook - The automotive and auto parts sector is rated as "Overweight" [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning with a target price of HK$19.30, indicating a potential upside of 25% from the current price of HK$15.50 [1]. Core Insights - The establishment of a joint venture is seen as beneficial for Li Ning, allowing the company to focus on the domestic market while leveraging external expertise for overseas expansion. The joint venture aims to achieve revenue of US$1 billion in its fourth year, reflecting the company's commitment to international growth [4][5]. - Li Ning's overseas business currently accounts for approximately 2% of total revenue, with expectations for significant growth through the joint venture [4]. - The financial projections indicate a modest revenue growth of 2.2% in 2024, with further increases of 3.9% and 3.6% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [5][6]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Li Ning are as follows: RMB 28.2 billion in 2024, RMB 29.3 billion in 2025, and RMB 30.4 billion in 2026, with corresponding net profits of RMB 3.08 billion, RMB 3.28 billion, and RMB 3.47 billion [6][7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be RMB 1.19 for 2024, RMB 1.27 for 2025, and RMB 1.34 for 2026, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14 times for 2025 [1][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning with a target price of HK$19.30, representing a potential upside of 26% from the current price of HK$15.28 [1][4]. Core Insights - The report indicates that Li Ning's 3Q24 operational performance met expectations, with projected revenue and net profit for 2024 expected to grow by 2.2% and decline by 3.3% respectively, reaching RMB 28.22 billion and RMB 3.08 billion [4][5]. - The report maintains earnings forecasts and the "Buy" rating, with a target price of HK$19.30, corresponding to a 14x P/E ratio for 2025 [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - 3Q24 results showed a slight decline in overall revenue (excluding Li Ning Young), with online sales growing while offline sales faced a decline [4]. - The report forecasts a 0.2% increase in total revenue for 2024, driven by a strong performance in professional channels and a low base effect for the upcoming quarter [5]. - The projected revenue figures for 2024-2026 are RMB 28.22 billion, RMB 29.33 billion, and RMB 30.38 billion respectively, with net profits expected to be RMB 3.08 billion, RMB 3.28 billion, and RMB 3.47 billion [6][7]. Earnings Forecast - The report anticipates a slight decrease in gross margin for 2024, with an expected increase in sales and management expense ratios due to higher marketing expenditures and depreciation costs [5]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are RMB 1.19, RMB 1.27, and RMB 1.34 respectively [6][7]. Market Position - Li Ning's market strategy includes increasing retail discounts to attract customers, while online discounts have shown improvement [5]. - The report highlights the importance of maintaining a healthy inventory structure, with over 80% of products having a shelf life of less than six months [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price raised to RMB 301.00 from RMB 251.30, indicating a potential upside of 19% from the current price of RMB 253.36 [1][5]. Core Insights - The company has exceeded market expectations with a significant increase in gross margin, reaching 31.2% in Q3 2024, driven by a decline in raw material costs and the introduction of new high-margin products [1][3]. - Despite a year-on-year revenue decline of 12.5% in Q3 2024, the company reported a net profit of RMB 13.1 billion, reflecting a 26% increase compared to the previous quarter [2][3]. - The company continues to strengthen its market position through the launch of innovative products, with Q3 2024 battery shipments reaching 125 GWh, of which 20% were for energy storage [1][3]. Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2024 revenue was RMB 92.3 billion, down 12.5% year-on-year but up 6.1% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - Gross profit for Q3 2024 was RMB 28.8 billion, with a gross margin of 31.2%, an increase of 8.7 percentage points year-on-year [2][3]. - The company reported a net profit of RMB 13.1 billion in Q3 2024, a 26% increase from the previous quarter [2][3]. Earnings Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2024-2026 has been adjusted to RMB 363.7 billion, RMB 405.9 billion, and RMB 444.9 billion, respectively, reflecting a downward revision due to declining battery prices [3][4]. - The gross margin is expected to improve to 28.3%, 28.7%, and 29.0% for 2024-2026, respectively, as the company focuses on high-margin products [3][4]. - The net profit forecast for 2024-2026 has been raised to RMB 511.4 billion, RMB 630.5 billion, and RMB 712.3 billion, indicating a year-on-year growth of 15.9%, 23.3%, and 13.0% [3][4]. Valuation - The company is assigned a valuation of 21 times P/E for 2025, compared to an average of 12 times for comparable companies, supporting the target price of RMB 301.00 [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the automotive parts industry [2]. Core Insights - In September, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) exceeded 50% for the third consecutive month, with wholesale sales expected to reach 12 million units for the year [2]. - The sales of power batteries and installed capacity increased by 11.9% and 15.5% month-on-month, respectively, indicating a strong growth trend in the battery sector [3]. - The report anticipates continued support for NEV subsidies in October, projecting retail and wholesale sales of NEVs to reach approximately 10.6 million and 12 million units, respectively, for the year, reflecting year-on-year growth of 36.8% and 35.4% [3]. Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicle Sales - In September, retail sales of narrow-sense passenger vehicles reached 2.109 million units, a month-on-month increase of 4.5% and a year-on-year increase of 10.7% [2]. - NEV retail sales in September reached 1.123 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 50.5% and a month-on-month growth of 9.3%, resulting in a penetration rate of 52.8% [2]. - Cumulative retail and wholesale sales of NEVs from January to September were 7.135 million and 7.839 million units, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 37.4% and 32.7% [2]. Battery Sales and Installed Capacity - In September, the total sales of power and energy storage batteries reached 103.9 GWh, with a year-on-year growth of 44.8% and a month-on-month growth of 11.9% [3]. - Power battery sales accounted for 76.6 GWh, representing 73.7% of total sales, while energy storage battery sales reached 27.3 GWh, showing a year-on-year growth of 114.1% [3]. - The cumulative sales of power and energy storage batteries from January to September were 685.7 GWh, with a year-on-year growth of 42.5% [3]. Market Trends and Policies - The report highlights the impact of the "old-for-new" vehicle replacement policy, which has significantly boosted NEV sales, particularly during the festive periods [2]. - As of October 4, 2024, a total of 1.258 million applications for subsidies under the vehicle replacement program had been received, with 62% of these applications for green energy NEVs [3]. - The report notes that the overall automotive market is expected to see stable month-on-month growth in October, driven by seasonal factors and rural demand [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Logistics with a target price raised to HK$17.68 from HK$15.79, indicating a potential upside of 26% from the current price of HK$14.00 [1][5]. Core Insights - JD Logistics is expected to see a continued improvement in profit margins, with a projected increase of 2.1 percentage points, leading to a year-on-year adjusted net profit growth of 65% in Q3 2024 [1]. - Revenue growth for Q3 2024 is anticipated to be slightly below previous forecasts due to a weak macroeconomic environment, with an expected year-on-year growth of 5.4% [1][2]. - The report highlights that the company’s gross margin is projected to rise to 10.0% in Q3 2024, up from 7.9% in Q3 2023, driven by operational efficiencies and cost control measures [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 is estimated at RMB 178,442 million, reflecting a 7.1% growth compared to 2023 [2]. - Adjusted net profit for 2024 is projected to be RMB 4,291 million, representing a 116.1% increase year-on-year [2][4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is forecasted to be RMB 0.68, up from RMB 0.61, marking a 12.5% increase [4][5]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from external customers is expected to grow by 7.6% in 2024, while revenue from related parties is projected to increase by 6.0% [2]. - The contribution from JD Group is anticipated to be RMB 53,067 million in 2024, while revenue from other sources is expected to reach RMB 125,375 million [2]. Valuation - The report employs a discounted cash flow (DCF) model for valuation, maintaining a WACC of 12.1% and a perpetual growth rate of 2.0% [5]. - The stock is currently trading at a discount of 21% to the adjusted target price, with a P/E ratio of 18.7 for 2024 and a CAGR of 20.5% for EPS from 2024 to 2026 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tesla with a target price of US$280.86, indicating an upside potential of approximately 28% from the current price of US$219.16 [1][8]. Core Insights - Tesla officially launched its Robotaxi products, including the Cybercab and Robovan models, which are expected to be a commercial turning point for the Robotaxi business [1][6]. - The Cybercab is projected to start mass production in 2026 at a cost not exceeding US$30,000, while the Robovan is designed to accommodate up to 20 passengers or be used for cargo transport [1][6]. - The report slightly adjusts the 2024 delivery forecast to 1,788,656 units, leading to an increase in revenue projections to US$102.02 billion [6][7]. Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024 is estimated at US$102,019 million, reflecting a 3% increase from previous estimates [7]. - The Non-GAAP net profit for 2024 is projected at US$8,392 million, with an EPS of US$2.63 [7][8]. - The report maintains the 2025 and 2026 earnings forecasts unchanged, with EPS estimates of US$3.41 and US$4.56 respectively [7][8]. Valuation - The valuation for Tesla's automotive business is maintained at a P/E ratio of 90, while the energy business is valued at a P/S ratio of 10, leading to the updated target price of US$280.86 [8][9]. - The total valuation for Tesla is calculated at US$891,301 million, with a per-share target price derived from the total valuation divided by the total shares outstanding [9][10]. Market Performance - Tesla's stock has shown a significant price range over the past year, with a 52-week high of US$271.00 and a low of US$138.80 [1]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at US$18,708 million, indicating strong market activity [1].

2024 年 10 月 16 日 证券研究报告 / 行业更新报告 医药 超配 中性 低配 医药月报（九月）：各地相继新增辅助生殖项目至医保报 销范围；跨省结算门诊慢特病新增 5 种 • 统计时间段内，申万医药 A/H 指数均涨幅明显，我们认为受益于市场情绪好转，医药 作为超跌板块反弹迅猛。 • 各地相继将辅助生殖类项目纳入医保报销范围，利好辅助生殖产业链。 • 我们预计 2024 年行业业绩增长有望超过 10%并将推动估值修复。 根据万得数据，统计时间段内（2024/9/1-2024/9/30）申万医药 A 股共有 457 家公司上 涨，按照子行业来看，涨幅数量前三的为化学制剂 109 家，中药 72 家， 医疗耗材 43 家。 申万医药 H 股共有 84 家公司上涨，按照子行业来看，涨幅数量前三的为其他生物制品 22 家，化学制剂 13 家，医疗耗材 10 家。 本月重点新闻政策： 1）四川省医保局、山西省医保局、湖南省医保局、云南省医保局、广东省医保局等于最近 陆续发文，新增辅助生殖类医疗服务价格项目至基本医疗保险基金支付范围。我们认为， 从去年以来，各地相继将辅助生殖类项目纳入医保报销范围，利好辅助生殖 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings with a target price of HK$520.00, up from the previous target of HK$480.00 [1][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights improved visibility in gaming growth driven by titles such as "Dungeon & Fighter Mobile" and "Evergreen Games," alongside stable external operating environments for other business segments [1]. - The forecast for Tencent's online gaming revenue growth is set at 13% and 9% year-on-year for Q3 and Q4 of 2024, respectively, with an overall revenue growth expected to accelerate to 12% year-on-year [1][9]. - The report anticipates a 9.5% year-on-year increase in domestic mobile game revenue for 2024, reaching RMB 131.85 billion [7]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - Rating: Buy - Target Price: HK$520.00, reflecting a 20% upside from the current price of HK$434.20 [1]. Financial Projections - 2024E Revenue: RMB 658.95 billion, with a 0% change from previous estimates [9]. - 2024E EPS: RMB 22.57, down 2% from prior estimates [9]. - 2025E EPS: RMB 24.70, up 4% from prior estimates [9]. Gaming Segment - Domestic mobile game revenue is projected to grow to RMB 131.85 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 9.5% [7]. - The report expects "Dungeon & Fighter Mobile" and "Evergreen Games" to contribute significantly to revenue growth [1]. Advertising and Financial Services - Q3 2024 advertising revenue is forecasted to grow by 15% year-on-year, with social advertising expected to increase by 16% [1]. - Financial technology and enterprise services are projected to see revenue growth of 1.5% and 11% year-on-year, respectively [1]. Valuation - The SOTP valuation breakdown includes: - Online gaming segment valued at HK$1.6 trillion based on 18x 2025 P/E [12]. - Social value-added services estimated at HK$253 billion based on 15x 2025 P/E [12]. - Financial technology segment valued at HK$991 billion based on 5x 2025 P/S [12].