禮來（LLY） 更新報告 買入 2024年5月3日 替爾泊肽供不應求，公司調高 24年收入預期 但玉翠  24 年 Q1 EPS 同比增長 66%：24 年 Q1 收入同比+26%至 87.7 億美元，得 852-253219539 益於 Mounjaro（+218%至18.1億美元）、Zepbound、Verzenio（阿貝西 Tracy.dan@firstshanghai.com.hk 利 ，+40%至 10.5 億美元） 和 Jardiance（恩格列淨，+19%至 6.9 億美 元）的增長。毛利率同比+4.3 個百分點至 80.9%，研發費用同比+27%至 高小迪 25.2 億美元，研發費率同比+0.3 個百分點至 28.8%，另收購在研項目研 852-25321960 發 費用1.1億美元。銷售管理費用同比增長12%至19.5億美元，S&GA費 率同比下降 2.8 個百分點至 22.3%。綜上所述，公司 GAAP 淨利潤同比增 xiaodi.gao@firstshanghai.com.hk 長67%至22.4億美元，EPS同比增長66%至2.48美元，24年1季度公司 分紅12億美元。  各版塊 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 37.02, indicating a potential upside of 24.2% from the current price of HKD 29.80 [2][3]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of CNY 1.08 billion in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 40.2%. However, it is projected to incur a net loss of CNY 1.51 billion, which is an increase of 51.3% compared to the previous year [1]. - The company has seen a recovery in Q1 2024, with revenues reaching CNY 330 million, a quarter-on-quarter increase of over 13%, and a reduction in net loss by 27.4% to CNY 349 million [1]. - The company plans to initiate an A-share private placement to raise CNY 2.55 billion, aimed at supporting innovative drug research and development [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of CNY 1.08 billion for 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 40.2%. The net loss for the year is projected at CNY 1.51 billion, which is a 51.3% increase from the previous year [1]. - In Q1 2024, the company achieved revenues of CNY 330 million, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of over 13% and a net loss reduction of 27.4% to CNY 349 million [1]. Funding and Financial Strategy - As of the end of Q1 2024, the company had CNY 620 million in cash and equivalents. It is actively seeking various financing tools to increase cash reserves, in addition to a CNY 4.4 billion loan obtained in Q1 [1]. - The company announced plans for a private placement to raise CNY 2.55 billion, which will be fully allocated to support innovative drug development [1]. Product Pipeline and Market Potential - The company is advancing its product pipeline, with multiple candidates entering Phase III clinical trials, including indications for SLE, MG, pSS, and IgAN [2]. - The company is facing a strategic decision regarding the timing of data release for its product, which could impact potential overseas licensing agreements and FDA approval [2]. - The oncology pipeline is set to present up to 16 research data points at the upcoming ASCO conference, which could provide significant insights into the company's future growth [2].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company [9]. Core Insights - The report discusses the market opportunities for the company in the context of the new era of laser radar technology, highlighting the potential for lower-cost laser radar systems to penetrate the automotive market [9]. - The current market penetration of laser radar is only 1%, with expectations for continued price reductions, making it feasible for more vehicles to adopt this technology [9]. - The company aims to collaborate with major automotive manufacturers, including BYD and SAIC, to equip various models with laser radar systems [9]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - The company, 速腾聚创 (2498.HK), operates in the automotive parts industry, focusing on laser radar technology [9]. - The current market capitalization is 183.08 billion HKD, with a share price of 40.60 HKD [9]. Technology Comparison - The report compares laser radar systems with pure vision solutions, noting that while vision systems excel in recognizing road signs and people, they struggle in low-light and adverse weather conditions [9]. - Laser radar provides precise three-dimensional recognition and is seen as complementary to vision systems [9]. Market Demand and Future Outlook - The demand for laser radar in Level 3 and above autonomous driving is expected to grow, as automotive manufacturers will increasingly install laser radar to ensure safety [9]. - The report anticipates that high-end vehicles priced around 250,000 HKD will be equipped with laser radar costing approximately 3,000 HKD, while vehicles in the 150,000 HKD range will use systems around 1,000 HKD [9]. Competitive Landscape - The company has established a competitive advantage by developing its own laser radar technology since 2018-2019, while many competitors still rely on third-party components [9]. - The company has achieved a high level of automation in its production processes, requiring only three workers per production line [9]. Customer Engagement - The company has secured three customers for its MX product, with two expected to begin mass production in Q1 of the following year [9]. - The goal is for approximately 30% of vehicles in the 150,000 HKD segment to utilize the MX product [9].

五粮液（000858） 更新报告 买入 2024年04月29日 分红率刷新纪录，经营业绩保持韧性  经营业绩稳步前行，分红率向上抬升：公司23FY共计实现收入、归母净利润分 黎航荣 别为 832.7/302.1 亿元，同比+12.6%/+13.2%，其中酒类/非酒类产品分别实现 Wayne.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 收入764.5/68.3亿元，同比+13.1%/+6.5%，酒类业务增长稳健。23FY综合毛利 852 2532 1539 率同比+0.37pct 至 75.8%，销售/管理/研发费用率分别同比+0.11/- 0.16/+0.07pct，归母净利率同比+0.2pct至36.3%。公司拟派股息每10股46.7 主要数据 元，分红率大幅提升至60.0%，分红比率及规模均刷新公司历史纪录。 行业 白酒/食品饮料  五粮液系列酒并驾齐驱，渠道建设稳扎稳打：分产品看，23FY 五粮液产品实现 收入628.0亿元，同比+13.5%，其中量增+18.0%至3.9万吨，吨价同比-3.8%， 股价 152.25元 毛利率提升+0.08pct至86.6%；系列酒产品实现收入136.4亿元，同 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company [8]. Core Views - The company's revenue growth slightly exceeded expectations, with operating cash flow quality being high [8]. - For Q1 2024, the company achieved operating revenue and net profit of RMB 45.78 billion and RMB 24.07 billion, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 18.1% and 15.7% [8]. - The company’s cash collection ratio for the period was 101.1%, up by 8.8 percentage points year-on-year, with operating cash flow net amounting to RMB 9.19 billion, a significant increase of 75.2% [8]. - The sales of Moutai liquor and series liquor saw increases, with revenues of RMB 39.71 billion and RMB 5.94 billion, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 17.7% and 18.4% [8]. - The report anticipates a full-year revenue growth target of 15% for the company, supported by a strong brand barrier and ongoing capacity expansion plans [8]. Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2022, was RMB 127.55 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 16.9% [9]. - The net profit for the same period was RMB 65.38 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19.6% [9]. - Forecasts for 2024 predict operating revenue of RMB 171.79 billion and net profit of RMB 91.07 billion, with growth rates of 16.3% and 17.5%, respectively [9]. - The basic earnings per share for 2024 is projected to be RMB 69.89, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.5 times at a share price of RMB 1,709.43 [9].

中国海外发展（688） 更新报告 买入 2024年4月25日 行业排名持续提升，高质量稳健发展 罗凡环  权益销售金额排名第二：2023 年公司实现合同销售额约 3098 亿元，同比增长 5.1%，行业排名第三，权益口径销售金额排名第二。合同销售面积约 1336 万方，同 852-25321962 比下降 3.7%，合同均价提升 9.1%至 23195 元/平方米。整体市占率提高 0.29 个 ppt 至 2.66%。公司依然聚焦主流城市主流地段布局，一二线城市合约销售金额占集团系 Simon.luo@firstshanghai.com.hk 列公司（不含中海宏洋）合约销售金额 74%，在 31 个城市市占率位居当地前三，其 中11个城市市占率位居当地市场第一。销售回款率99%，同比提升6个ppt。公司宣 行业 房地产 派末期股息每股45港仙，全年派息率30%。 股价 12.14港元  土地投资规模及质量行业领先：虽然市场波动下行，但公司保持投资定力，聚焦高 能级城市的优质资产精准投资，2023年新增总购地金额1440亿元，对应货值2640亿 目标价 18.80港元 元，其中北上广深占比均超过60%，一线 ...

宏观经济评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | 2024 年 4 月 23 日 星期二 【宏观经济评论】 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $45.61 or HKD 178.59, indicating a potential upside of 83.10% or 81.59% from the current price [1][3]. Core Insights - The company has adjusted its delivery guidance due to lower-than-expected new car sales orders, forecasting Q1 vehicle deliveries of 76,000 to 78,000 units and an annual sales target of 560,000 to 640,000 units, representing a growth rate of 50% to 70% [1]. - The March delivery figures met the revised expectations, with 29,000 vehicles delivered, marking a year-on-year increase of 39.2% and a month-on-month increase of 43.1% [1]. - The company has restructured its organizational framework to focus on user value and operational efficiency, establishing a new Go to Market (GTM) team to enhance product launch strategies [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2026 are estimated at RMB 201.8 billion, RMB 266.8 billion, and RMB 306.1 billion, respectively, with net profits expected to be RMB 11.2 billion, RMB 18.9 billion, and RMB 23.9 billion [1][5]. - The company anticipates maintaining profitability over the next three years, with a projected gross margin of 19% in 2024 and 20% in 2026 [5][7]. - The company’s total market capitalization is reported at $26.43 billion, with a current stock price of $24.91 or HKD 98.35 [3][5].

羅凡環 (852)25321962 Simon.luo@firstshanghai.com.hk | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|-------------|-----------|---------------------|--------------|-------|------------------|-------| | 圖表 1： IMF 全球經濟 GDP \nWorld Output Advanced Econom ies | 展望（%） 圖表 \n2023 3.2 | 2024E 3.2 | 2025E 3.2 | 2：美國 1 \n6.0 | 年、5 年和 | 10 | 年期國債利率 (%) | 6.0 | | | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.8 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 233.59 RMB, indicating a potential upside of 22.99% from the current price [2][4]. Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2024 results that met expectations, with revenue of 79.77 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 10.41%, and a net profit of 10.51 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 7% [1]. - The company holds a leading market share in the battery sector, achieving a battery shipment volume of 35.5 GWh in January-February 2024, a year-on-year increase of 44.9%, with a market share of 38.4% [1]. - The company is expanding its international presence through technology licensing agreements with major automakers like Ford, Tesla, and GM, and expects to achieve breakeven at its German factory in 2024 [1]. - The company launched the Tianheng energy storage system, which boasts zero degradation in power and capacity over five years, enhancing energy density and safety [1]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to generate revenues of 389.39 billion RMB, 469.91 billion RMB, and 526.13 billion RMB for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2]. - The forecasted net profits for the same years are 49.76 billion RMB, 58.59 billion RMB, and 65.30 billion RMB [2]. - The company’s cash flow remains strong, with operating cash flow of 28.4 billion RMB in Q1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 35% [1].