来源: 公司资料, 第一上海 来源: 彭博 波司登（3998.HK） 更新报告 24/25 上半财年维持高质量的业绩增长 2024/2025 上半财年业绩概览：截至 2024 年 9 月 30 日的中期业绩，公司实现营业收入 88 亿元（人民币，下同）、同比增加 17.8%（主要受益于品牌羽绒服和贴牌加工管理业务 的良好增长）。毛利率比去年同期减少 0.1PCT 到 49.9%（主要受产品+品牌结构变化和羽 绒成本上升的影响）。经营利润率同比增长 19.6%到 14.7 亿元（受益于营运效率的提 升），撇除女装业务的经营利润增长 28.3%到 16.1 亿元。归母净利润 11.3 亿元、同比增 加 23%，归母净利率同比提升 0.5PCT 至 12.8%，拟派中期股息每股 6 港仙，派息比率为 57.9%。存货周转天数增加 29 天到 189 天；主要由于 1）集团提前进行原材料备货，2） 略提前生产致制成品增加，3）放缓上半财年给经销商的发货节奏和发货速度，希望在下 半年不确定的市场环境中以小单快反的供应链管理体系应对消费者需求。集团持有净现 金为 64.1 亿，资产负债水平健康。集团继续维持高质量的业绩增 ...

上海复旦（1385） 更新报告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|---------------------------------|-------------------------|-------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------|---------------|--------------------------------|-------------| | 存量市场竞争激烈， | | FPGA | 持有 \n | 产品毛利率阶段性承压 | | | 曹凌霁 | 2024 年 12 | 月 2 日 ...

Investment Rating - Buy rating with a target price of HKD 328.3, representing a 29.44% upside from the current price [1] Core Views - Q3 2024 results met expectations with revenue of RMB 502.2 billion (+18.9% YoY) and net profit of RMB 25.2 billion (+18.1% YoY) [1] - Q3 gross margin improved to 21.9%, up 3.2 percentage points QoQ, driven by economies of scale in NEV sales [1] - November NEV sales reached 504,000 units (+67% YoY, +1% MoM), with DM5.0 models driving strong PHEV sales of 306,000 units (+133% YoY) [1] - Full-year 2024 NEV sales expected to exceed 4.1 million units, supported by strong DM5.0 model sales and government subsidies [1] - 2025 is expected to be a breakthrough year for BEV models with new platform launches, further boosting profitability [1] Financial Performance Revenue & Profitability - Q3 revenue reached RMB 201.1 billion (+14.2% QoQ), with net profit of RMB 11.6 billion (+28% QoQ) [1] - Auto business revenue in Q3 was RMB 157.58 billion (+18% QoQ), with gross margin improving to 26% (+4 ppts QoQ) [1] - 2024-2026 revenue forecast at RMB 780.1/953.3/1,130.6 billion, with net profit of RMB 37.5/45.8/55.9 billion [2][4] - Gross margin expected to improve from 20.2% in 2023 to 22.6% by 2026 [4] Vehicle Sales & Profitability - YTD November 2024 sales reached 3.74 million units (+40% YoY), with premium brands (Denza, Fang Cheng Bao, Yangwang) contributing 163,000 units (+39.4% YoY) [1] - Q3 vehicle ASP increased to RMB 139,500 (+RMB 3,000 QoQ) due to higher-priced DM5.0 models [1] - Q3 vehicle profit per unit rose to RMB 9,400 (+RMB 8,000 QoQ), expected to remain stable in Q4 [1] International Expansion - November overseas sales reached 31,000 units, with YTD exports at 360,000 units (+74% YoY) [1] Valuation & Forecast - 2025 target valuation of HKD 888.1 billion based on 20x PE for auto business and 15x PE for electronics [1] - 2024-2026 EPS forecast at RMB 12.87/15.74/19.20, with P/E ratios of 18.3x/15.0x/12.3x [2][4] - Dividend yield expected to increase from 1% in 2023 to 2% by 2026 [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 31.77, representing a potential upside of 53.11% from the current price of HKD 20.75 [4]. Core Insights - The company has achieved significant revenue growth, with a reported revenue of RMB 1.13 billion for the first three quarters, marking a year-on-year increase of 69% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 54.7% [4]. - The gross profit margin has improved due to economies of scale, reaching 17.5% in Q3, up from previous periods [4]. - The company has secured contracts with several major automotive manufacturers, including both domestic and international brands, for its advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) [4]. - The ADAS product revenue reached RMB 3.3 billion in Q3, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 87.1% and a shipment increase of 150% [4]. - The company is expected to rapidly increase its product penetration in the smart vehicle market, particularly in the RMB 150,000 to 200,000 segment [4]. Financial Summary - The company reported total revenue of RMB 1,120.15 million for 2023, with projections of RMB 1,645.64 million for 2024 and RMB 3,200.15 million for 2025 [6]. - The adjusted net profit is forecasted to improve from a loss of RMB 4.33 billion in 2023 to a loss of RMB 460.46 million in 2024, and a profit of RMB 37.57 million in 2025 [6]. - The gross margin is expected to increase from 8.36% in 2023 to 20.35% in 2025, indicating improved profitability [6]. - The company’s total assets are projected to be RMB 3.27 billion in 2023, with a slight decrease to RMB 2.61 billion in 2024, before recovering to RMB 3.42 billion in 2025 [6].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for Mobvista (1860 HK) [2] Core Business - Mobvista is a global leader in mobile advertising and marketing technology, primarily serving mobile app developers and helping Chinese developers expand overseas [2] - The company focuses on programmatic advertising and data-driven marketing, with its core business relying on the Mintegral platform [2] - Key business segments include: (i) programmatic advertising solutions, (ii) data analytics and operations services, (iii) SaaS tool matrix development and sales, and (iv) multi-scenario traffic monetization services [2] - Advertising technology accounts for 98 6% of revenue, with programmatic advertising being the major contributor, while marketing technology currently represents 1 4% of revenue but is in a rapid expansion phase [2] Market Outlook - The global mobile advertising and marketing technology market is expected to exceed $500 billion by 2025, with programmatic advertising growing at a 16 2% CAGR [2] - Mid-tail and long-tail traffic are becoming increasingly important due to privacy protection and antitrust policies, presenting significant growth opportunities [2] Competitive Landscape - The global ad tech platform market is dominated by Google AdMob and Meta Audience Network in the head traffic segment, while mid-tail and long-tail traffic are controlled by programmatic advertising platforms including AppLovin, Unity Ads, and Mintegral [2] - Mobvista has strengthened its competitiveness in ROI improvement for advertisers, global traffic coverage, and data analytics efficiency through continuous algorithm optimization and service enhancement [2] Future Prospects - The company plans to focus on advertising services for mid-core games, utility apps, and e-commerce sectors, which are experiencing rapid growth [2] - The mid-core game sector, in particular, is expected to reach a market potential of hundreds of billions of dollars by 2025 due to the popularity of hybrid monetization models [2] - Mintegral platform currently handles trillions of ad requests annually, with revenue and profit steadily increasing alongside global business expansion [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for the company with a target price of **310.4 RMB**, representing an **18.83% upside** from the current price [3][7] Core Views - The company's **gross margin improved significantly** to **31.2%** in Q3 2024, driven by lower raw material costs and technological premiums from new product installations [3] - **Battery shipments grew strongly**, with global market share reaching **64.9%** in the first 8 months of 2024 and domestic market share increasing to **45.9%**, up **3.1 percentage points** year-over-year [3] - The company launched a new **hybrid battery "XiaoYao"** with a pure electric range of over **400 km** and **4C ultra-fast charging** capability, which has been adopted by multiple brands including Li Auto, Avatr, and Deepal [3] - Overseas expansion is progressing steadily, with **8 factories** already built or under construction in Europe, including a new remanufacturing center in Hungary expected to be completed by **2026** [3] Financial Performance - **Revenue** for the first three quarters of 2024 reached **360.0 billion RMB**, a **19.3% year-over-year increase** [3] - **Net profit attributable to shareholders** was **131.36 billion RMB** in Q3 2024, with a **net profit margin of 15.6%** [3] - The company's **battery shipments** in Q3 2024 totaled **125 GWh**, including **30 GWh** of energy storage batteries, a **60% year-over-year increase** [3] - **Revenue** is forecasted to grow to **520.7 billion RMB** by 2026, with **net profit attributable to shareholders** expected to reach **71.4 billion RMB** [7] Market Position and Growth - The company continues to lead the global power battery market, with a **64.9% share** in the first 8 months of 2024 [3] - Domestic market share increased to **45.9%**, up **3.1 percentage points** year-over-year [3] - The company expects **20% year-over-year growth** in battery shipments in 2025, driven by strong domestic and international demand [3] Product Innovation - The new **hybrid battery "XiaoYao"** features a **400 km pure electric range** and **4C ultra-fast charging**, enabling a **280 km range** with just **10 minutes of charging** [3] - The battery incorporates **lithium-sodium integration technology**, allowing operation in temperatures as low as **-40°C** [3] - By **2025**, nearly **30 hybrid models** from brands including Geely, Chery, and GAC are expected to adopt the XiaoYao battery [3] Overseas Expansion - The company is accelerating its **battery recycling business** in Europe, with a remanufacturing center in Hungary expected to be completed by **2026** [3] - The German factory is ramping up production smoothly, aiming to achieve **break-even** within the year [3] - The first phase of the Hungary plant is progressing steadily, with production expected to start next year [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of $160, indicating a potential upside of 16.85% from the current price [2][31]. Core Insights - The company reported Q3 FY2025 revenue of $35.1 billion, a year-over-year increase of 93.6%, significantly exceeding the guidance of $32.5 billion and Bloomberg consensus of $33.3 billion [5][4]. - The gross margin for the quarter was 74.6%, slightly down from the previous quarter but above the company's guidance and in line with expectations [5][6]. - Operating profit reached $21.9 billion, up 109.9% year-over-year, with an operating margin of 62.3%, reflecting strong demand for Hopper GPUs [5][6]. - The company generated free cash flow of $16.8 billion during the quarter, compared to $7 billion in the same period last year [6]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company expects Q4 FY2025 revenue to be around $37.5 billion, representing a year-over-year growth of 69.7%, which is above Bloomberg's consensus of $37 billion [8]. - The projected revenue CAGR for FY2025-2027 is 60.1%, with GAAP EPS CAGR expected to be 67.7% [32]. Business Segments Performance - Data center revenue for Q3 FY2025 was $30.77 billion, a 112% increase year-over-year, driven by demand for large models and generative AI [15]. - Gaming revenue for Q3 FY2025 was $3.28 billion, up 15% year-over-year, primarily due to sales of the RTX 40 series [23]. - The professional visualization segment reported revenue of $490 million, a 17% increase year-over-year, with AI driving demand [27]. - Automotive revenue reached $450 million, a 72% increase year-over-year, fueled by the demand for smart driving chips [27]. Strategic Developments - The company is focusing on the Blackwell platform, which is expected to generate significant revenue in the upcoming quarters, with strong demand from major clients like Dell and Microsoft [8][20]. - The software business is also anticipated to grow, with annualized revenue reaching $1.5 billion, expected to exceed $2 billion in the next quarter [21]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company is well-positioned in the AI and data center markets, benefiting from the shift towards cloud infrastructure and accelerated computing [20]. - The report highlights the importance of maintaining a competitive edge in GPU performance and CUDA optimization to sustain growth [35].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 7.03, indicating a potential upside of 26.6% from the current price of HKD 5.55 [2][4]. Core Insights - The company's performance met expectations, with significant growth in the natural gas business, despite a decline in oil sales revenue due to fluctuating oil prices [2][4]. - The oil and new energy segments showed a year-on-year production increase of 2.1%, with total oil equivalent production reaching 1443 million barrels [2][4]. - The refining segment experienced a profit decrease, while the chemical segment showed profit growth, indicating a mixed performance across different business units [2][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 702.41 billion, a decrease of 5.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 132.52 billion, an increase of 0.7% year-on-year [2][4]. - The average crude oil price for the first three quarters was USD 76.88 per barrel, with natural gas sales volume reaching 1629.6 billion cubic meters, reflecting a 30% increase in operating profit for the natural gas segment [2][4]. - The company’s refining throughput was 1036.2 million barrels, with gasoline production decreasing by 2.7% to 8990 million tons, while kerosene production saw a significant increase [2][4]. Revenue and Profitability Forecast - The forecasted revenues for 2024-2026 are RMB 3.10 trillion, RMB 3.11 trillion, and RMB 3.16 trillion respectively, with net profits projected at RMB 180.1 billion and RMB 186.0 billion for the same period [2][4]. - The report anticipates a net profit growth rate of 7 times PE for the years 2024-2026, supporting the bullish outlook on the company's stock [2][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 23.95, indicating a potential upside of 40.7% from the current price [4]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated significant revenue growth, achieving Q3 revenue of CNY 467 million, a year-on-year increase of 34.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13.6%. Cumulatively, revenue for the first three quarters grew by 57.1% [1]. - Cost control measures have led to a notable reduction in losses, with Q3 net loss narrowing by 32.6% to CNY 291 million. The gross margin for Q3 improved to 82.1%, up 4.1 percentage points from the previous quarter [1]. - The company is focusing resources on key pipelines, with several clinical trials progressing well, including the completion of patient enrollment for various Phase III trials [3]. Financial Performance - The company reported a cash and cash equivalents balance of CNY 1.12 billion as of September 30, with a loan credit line of CNY 2.8 billion [1]. - The sales revenue for the product 泰它西普 reached approximately CNY 270 million in Q3, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 43% [2]. - The projected revenues for the company for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 are CNY 1.624 billion, CNY 2.411 billion, and CNY 3.243 billion, respectively [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2]. Core Views - The company is expected to see continuous growth driven by its dual business segments, with significant contributions from home decoration and rental services [2]. - Adjusted net profit for Q3 2024 reached 73.68 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.5% [2]. - The company’s total transaction volume increased by 26.8%, indicating strong market performance [2]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for Q3 2024 was 62 billion RMB, stable compared to the previous year, with a net income of 77 billion RMB, up 30.9% year-on-year [2]. - The gross profit margin for the period was 22.7%, a decrease attributed to rising fixed salary costs and a decline in the profit margin from existing home sales [2]. - The adjusted net profit for the year is projected to be 80 billion RMB, 96 billion RMB, and 109 billion RMB for the next three years, respectively [2]. Business Segment Analysis - The existing home business saw a decline in profit margin, while the new home business outperformed expectations, with transaction volume reaching 4,778 billion RMB, an increase of 8.8% year-on-year [2]. - The new home business generated a transaction fee rate of 3.4%, achieving a historical high, with commission income from state-owned developers rising to 58% [2]. - Revenue from home decoration and rental services grew by 62.0% year-on-year, contributing to 35.8% of total revenue, marking a historical high [2]. Market Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from recent policy adjustments in real estate credit and transaction taxes, which are likely to lead to significant growth in overall transaction volume [2]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 66.9 HKD / 25.6 USD, based on a projected PE ratio of 15 times for 2025 [2].