行 业 行业周报 [Table_MainInfo] 7 月中国地区小松挖掘机开工小时数为 88.40 小时 ――机械设备行业周报 分析师： 宁前羽 SAC NO： S1150522070001 2024 年 8 月 14 日 究 [Table_Author] 证券分析师 宁前羽 022-23839174 ningqy@bhzq.com [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 行业要闻 1) 7 月中国地区小松挖掘机开工小时数为 88.40 小时，同比下降 0.30%。 2) 7 月装载机销量 8379 台，同比增长 27.1%。 3) 利勃海尔宣布关闭徐州工厂，混凝土业务集中到上海总部。 公司重要公告 1) 蜀道装备：2024 上半年实现营业收入 1.52 亿元，同比增长 32.84%。 2) 石化机械：2024 上半年实现营业收入 38.86 亿元，同比下降 8.87%。 3) 英维克：2024 上半年实现营业收入 17.13 亿元，同比增长 38.24%。 周行情回顾 2024 年 8 月 7 日至 2024 年 8 月 13 日，沪深 300 指数下跌 0.26%，申万机械 设备行业下跌 1.45% ...

行业月报 [Table_MainInfo] 碳酸锂产量收缩，轻稀土价格回暖 ――金属行业 8 月月报 分析师： 张珂 SAC NO： S1150523120001 2024 年 8 月 14 日 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 行业数据 钢铁：根据中国物流信息中心数据，7 月钢铁行业 PMI 为 42.5%，环比减少 5.3pct.，随淡季深入钢铁行业景气度继续下行。7 月多地高温、多雨天气影 响施工，下游需求继续走弱；受新旧国标切换影响，市场对旧国标产品库存 去化较为担忧，钢厂生产意愿也随之降低；库存略有下降，7 月钢价走低。 展望未来，8 月仍为消费淡季，天气因素影响下需求难有明显起色，新旧国 标切换也将压制钢价，预计钢价维持弱势震荡。 铜：据 SMM 数据，7 月 SMM 中国电解铜产量为 102.8 万吨，环比增长 2.3%， 同比增长 11.1%，7 月电解铜产量处于高位水平；考虑到原料紧张的影响， 预计 8 月产量或有小幅下降。宏观面上，美国衰退预期缓和，对铜价压制减 弱。展望未来，8 月仍是传统消费淡季，需求难有明显起色，但原料端偏紧 有望支撑价格，预计铜价延续震荡。 铝：电解铝方面 ...

行业周报 行 业 -30.00% -25.00% -20.00% -15.00% -10.00% -5.00% 0.00% 5.00% 沪深300 轻工制造 纺织服饰 [Table_IndInvest] 研 [吨 able_MainInfo] 深圳商品房收储模式出台，地产后周期有望受益 究 [Table_Author] 证券分析师 袁艺博 022-23839135 yuanyb@bhzq.com 分析师： 袁艺博 SAC NO： S1150521120002 2024 年 8 月 12 日 ――轻工制造&纺织服饰行业周报 [吨 able_Summary] 投资要点： 行业要闻 1）巴西 Veracel 纸浆厂开始年度停机检修。 2）彪马上半年净利同比下降 25%。 公司重要公告 1）健盛集团：公司上半年归母净利润同比增长 33.82% 2）华利集团：公司上半年归母净利润同比增长 29.04% 行情回顾 8 月 5 日至 8 月 9 日，轻工制造行业跑赢沪深 300 指数 2.38 个百分点：SW 轻 工制造（0.82%）VS 沪深 300（-1.56%）；纺织服饰行业跑赢沪深 300 指数 1.81 个百分点 ...

Industry Investment Rating - Steel: Neutral [1] - Non-ferrous Metals: Positive [1] Core Views - The steel industry is experiencing a seasonal consumption lull, maintaining a weak supply-demand balance with a slight decrease in inventory. Short-term steel prices are expected to remain weak due to the transition between old and new national standards for rebar [1][3]. - Copper smelting fees remain low, with expectations of reduced production on the smelting side. Domestic demand is weak during the consumption off-season, but the pressure on copper prices is easing due to a slowdown in U.S. recession expectations. Short-term copper prices are anticipated to remain weak and volatile [1][3]. - The aluminum sector is seeing a recovery in supply due to the resumption of some alumina plants in Henan, but weak orders continue to suppress downstream operating rates, leading to a forecast of weak aluminum prices [2][3]. - Lithium prices are expected to remain weak as the demand for energy storage orders shows only a slight recovery, and lithium concentrate prices continue to decline [2][3]. Summary by Sections Steel - Current supply-demand conditions are weak, with a slight inventory decrease. As of August 9, the total steel inventory was 17.03 million tons, down 1.25% week-on-week [1][15]. - The production of five major steel varieties was 7.8351 million tons, down 7.17% week-on-week and down 15.72% year-on-year [15][17]. - The average profit margins for hot-rolled, cold-rolled, rebar, and medium-thick plates are negative, indicating ongoing challenges in profitability [26][28]. Copper - As of August 9, the copper smelting fee was $6.80 per ton, down 12.82% from the previous week [28]. - The LME copper spot price decreased by 1.92% to $8,800 per ton, while the domestic price fell by 2.57% to ¥71,600 per ton [28]. Aluminum - The LME aluminum spot price increased by 2.19% to $2,300 per ton, while the domestic price rose by 0.16% to ¥19,000 per ton [32]. - The operating rates of downstream aluminum processing companies continue to decline, leading to expectations of weak price performance [2][3]. Lithium - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate fell by 1.82% to ¥81,000 per ton, while battery-grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 0.45% to ¥77,100 per ton [39]. - The overall lithium price trend is expected to remain weak due to declining costs and insufficient demand support [37][39]. Rare Earths and Minor Metals - Prices for light rare earths, such as praseodymium-neodymium oxide, increased by 0.40% to ¥374,000 per ton, while heavy rare earths like dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide saw declines of 1.14% and 1.42%, respectively [48][49]. - Tungsten concentrate prices rose by 0.76% to ¥133,000 per ton, indicating a positive trend in minor metals [51].

[Table_ 编辑人Contactor] 晨会纪要（2024/8/13） 崔健 022-28451618 SACNO: S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com [Table_MainInfo]渤海证券研究所晨会 行业专题评述 深圳商品房收储模式出台，地产后周期有望受益——轻工制造&纺织服饰行 业周报——中性 金融工程研究 权益市场震荡回撤，房地产板块领涨――公募基金周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 晨会纪要（2024/8/13） [Table_MorningSection] 行业专题评述 深圳商品房收储模式出台，地产后周期有望受益——轻工制造&纺织服饰行业周报——中性 袁艺博（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150521120002） 投资要点： 1、行业要闻 1）巴西 Veracel 纸浆厂开始年度停机检修； 2）彪马上半年净利同比下降 25%。 2、公司重要公告 1）健盛集团：公司上半年归母净利润同比增长 33.82%； 2）华利集团：公司上半年归母净利润同比增长 29.04%。 3、 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Industry**: Macro and Trade Analysis - **Date**: August 12, 2024 - **Analysts**: Zhou Xi, Song Yiwei, Yan Peipei, Jin Peipeng Key Points Export Dynamics 1. **Weakening Export Momentum**: July exports grew by 7.0% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from June, marking the end of a three-month upward trend. Month-on-month growth turned negative, reaching the lowest level since November 2023, excluding February 2024. The decline in export momentum is attributed to weakening external demand and the expiration of tariff exemptions by the US on Chinese goods, as well as the EU's imposition of countervailing duties on Chinese electric vehicle exports [4][4][4] 2. **Import Growth Surprises**: July imports increased by 7.2% year-on-year, a significant rise of 9.5 percentage points from June. Month-on-month growth was 3.4%, ending a negative trend observed since early 2024. The unexpected rebound in import growth is primarily due to base effects, although actual momentum remains weak. When using 2019 as a base year, the average compound annual growth rate of imports for the month decreased by 1.1 percentage points, the lowest for the year [4][4][4] 3. **Rising Export Uncertainty**: Looking ahead, August exports are expected to continue the downward trend due to a higher base effect. Factors contributing to this include a slowdown in US inventory replenishment and rising supply chain pressure indices from the New York Fed. Geopolitical tensions may further impact exports [4][4][4] Risk Factors 1. **Geopolitical Risks**: Increased global political uncertainty may disrupt market risk appetite [4][4][4] 2. **Economic and Policy Changes**: Recent fluctuations in overseas economies and domestic economic transitions may lead to unexpected policy adjustments [4][4][4] Financial Market Insights 1. **Regulatory Environment**: The central bank has reduced liquidity, with a net withdrawal of 1.1 trillion yuan. The money market showed slight fluctuations, with DR007 rising by 7 basis points to 1.77% [6][6][6] 2. **Primary Market Activity**: In the primary market, 82 bonds were issued, totaling 701 billion yuan, with a net financing amount of 579.5 billion yuan. The issuance of special bonds remained stable [6][6][6] 3. **Secondary Market Trends**: Most interest rates rose due to increased regulatory oversight, with the 1-year government bond yield up by 2 basis points to 1.43% and the 10-year yield up by 5 basis points to 2.18% [6][6][6] 4. **Market Outlook**: The focus remains on regulatory measures affecting long-term yields. If these measures persist, long-term yields may rise sharply, although the upward space for yields remains limited due to unchanged fundamentals [6][6][6] Investment Ratings - **Buy**: Expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by over 20% in the next 6 months - **Hold**: Expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10%-20% in the next 6 months - **Neutral**: Expected to perform within -10% to 10% of the CSI 300 index in the next 6 months - **Reduce**: Expected to underperform the CSI 300 index by over 10% in the next 6 months - **Positive Outlook**: Expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by over 10% in the next 12 months [10][10][10] Additional Notes - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring regulatory changes and their impact on market dynamics, particularly in the context of ongoing economic transitions and geopolitical tensions [6][6][6]

行 业 研 行业周报 [Table_MainInfo]低锂价压力下雅宝暂停澳洲扩张计划 究 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|----------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------| | | | | ――金属行业周报 | | 分析师： | 张珂 | ： S1150523120001 | 2024 年 8 月 6 日 | | [Table_Author]证券分析师 | | | | | 张珂 | | | | | 022-23839062 | | 行业情况及产品价格走势初判 | | | zhangke@bhzq.com | | 钢铁：本周钢材产量继续收缩，库存小幅下降；据 | Mysteel 不完全统计，预 | | [Table_Contactor] | | 月将有部分钢厂减产检修，初步测算建材减量达 | 198 万吨；螺纹钢新 | | [Table_IndInvest]行业评级钢铁 | 中性 | 旧国标切换 ...

行 -20.00% -15.00% -10.00% -5.00% 0.00% 5.00% SW机械设备 沪深300 [Table_Doc] 业 行业周报 [Table_MainInfo]7 月挖掘机销量约 1.37 万台，同比增长 8.6% ――机械设备行业周报 分析师： 宁前羽 SAC NO： S1150522070001 2024 年 8 月 7 日 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 行业要闻 1) 国务院办公厅印发《加快构建碳排放双控制度体系工作方案》。 2) 国务院印发《深入实施以人为本的新型城镇化战略五年行动计划》。 公司重要公告 1) 天宜上佳：与西通航签订《战略合作协议》。 2) 华东重机：终止投资建设亳州年产 10GW N 型高效太阳能电池片生产基 地项目。 3) 华锐精密：发布 2024 年半年度报告，实现归母净利润 7,193.77 万元。 周行情回顾 2024 年 7 月 31 日至 2024 年 8 月 6 日，沪深 300 指数下跌 0.78%，申万机 械设备行业上涨 1.15%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 1.93 个百分点，在申万所有一级 行业中位于第 12 位。 估值方面 ...

行 业 行业周报 研 [吨 able_MainInfo] 促消费再出新政，美联储降息预期关注出口链 究 [Table_Author] 证券分析师 袁艺博 022-23839135 yuanyb@bhzq.com [Table_Contactor] | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|-------| | 子行业评级 | | | 家居用品 | 中性 | | 造纸 | 中性 | | 包装印刷 | 中性 | | 文娱用品 | 中性 | | 纺织制造 | 中性 | | 服装家纺 | 中性 | | 饰品 | 中性 | | [Table_StkSuggest]重点品种推荐 | | | 欧派家居 | 增持 | | 索菲亚 | 增持 | | 好太太 欧派家居 | 增持 | | 探路者 | 增持 | | 森马服饰 | 增持 | [Table_IndQuotePic] 最近一季度行业相对走势 行 业 周 报 ――轻工制造&纺织服饰行业周报 分析师： 袁艺博 SAC NO： S1150521120002 2024 年 8 月 5 日 [吨 able_Summary] 投资 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the light industry manufacturing and textile apparel sectors [30][39]. - The report recommends "Overweight" ratings for specific companies: Oppein Home (603833), Sophia (002572), Haotaitai (603848), Ternua (300005), and Semir Apparel (002563) [30][39]. Core Insights - In the first half of the year, the domestic furniture retail sales totaled 72.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.60% [30][8]. - The retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles reached 709.83 billion yuan, growing by 1.30% year-on-year [30][19]. - The light industry manufacturing sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 7.09 percentage points from June 24 to July 26, with a decline of 9.56% compared to the index's decline of 2.47% [30][26]. - The textile and apparel sector also lagged behind the CSI 300 index by 7.62 percentage points, with a decline of 10.09% [30][26]. Industry Development - The furniture industry is experiencing stable growth, supported by the "old-for-new" policy, which has been reinforced to enhance consumer demand [30][8]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology noted that the optimization of real estate policies has boosted market expectations, further releasing the consumption potential in the furniture market [30][8]. - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to be supported by approximately 300 billion yuan in special long-term bonds, aimed at promoting large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods replacements [30][30]. Market Strategy - The recent increase in activity in the real estate market is attributed to policy adjustments aimed at supporting housing demand [30][29]. - The report highlights that the furniture market's consumption potential is being further released due to product innovation and customization capabilities [30][30]. - The report suggests that the demand for home products is likely to increase as the effects of the "old-for-new" policy become more pronounced [30][30].