Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the steel industry and a "Positive" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [19] - It recommends an "Overweight" rating for specific companies including Bo Wei Alloy (601137), Luoyang Molybdenum (603993), Zhongjin Gold (600489), Xiyang Co. (000960), and Zijin Mining (601899) [19] Core Views - The lithium market is experiencing weak demand from downstream sectors, with only essential purchases being maintained. The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance have proposed increasing subsidies for new energy buses and battery replacements, which may improve demand to some extent. However, due to oversupply pressures, lithium prices are expected to remain weak in the short term [18][59] - In the copper sector, there are ongoing disruptions at the mining level, and smelting fees are at historical lows. Domestic demand is performing reasonably well, supported by equipment upgrades and policies aimed at boosting consumption. The report suggests monitoring related sectors [19] - The gold market is expected to benefit from a high probability of interest rate cuts this year, with significant inflows into global gold ETFs providing support for gold prices. The complex geopolitical situation and high U.S. debt levels are also favorable for gold [19] - The tin industry is anticipated to recover gradually, driven by the semiconductor sector and developments in AI and new energy [19] Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the need to focus on new technologies and industries such as smart connected vehicles, hydrogen energy, and low-altitude economy [27] - A joint action plan was released to support the aluminum industry in expanding the use of non-fossil energy sources [27] - Codelco's copper production decreased by 8.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2024 due to operational issues and adverse weather [27] - The report highlights that the average profit margins for various steel products have decreased significantly, indicating a challenging environment for the steel industry [41] Industry Data Steel - As of July 26, 2024, the total steel production was 8.75 million tons, a decrease of 0.96% from July 19, 2024, and a year-on-year decrease of 6.22% [31] - The capacity utilization rates for blast furnaces and electric furnaces were 89.61% and 49.79%, respectively, indicating slight declines [33] - The total steel inventory was 17.34 million tons, with a slight decrease of 0.02% from the previous week but an increase of 8.28% year-on-year [35] Copper - The copper smelting fees were reported at $9.10 per ton, with a decrease of 4.21% from the previous week [45] - The LME copper spot price and the Longjiang non-ferrous copper price both saw declines, with LME copper down 2.12% and Longjiang copper down 2.78% [45] Aluminum - The aluminum market is facing tight supply due to weather impacts, with LME aluminum prices down 3.59% and Longjiang aluminum prices down 1.44% [53] Rare Earths and Minor Metals - Prices for light rare earths have increased, with praseodymium-neodymium oxide up 0.97% to 363,500 yuan per ton [67] - Tungsten concentrate prices decreased by 0.76% to 130,000 yuan per ton [71]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" for general equipment and automation equipment, "Neutral" for specialized equipment and transportation equipment, and "Positive" for engineering machinery [6][26]. Core Viewpoints - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the industry, with specific "Increase" ratings for Sany Heavy Industry, China CRRC, and Zoomlion [20][21]. - In the first half of 2024, the national engineering machinery operating rate was 48.97%, indicating a recovery in the market [7][20]. - A total of 13,853 major projects were initiated nationwide in the first half of 2024, with a cumulative total investment of 100,654.3 billion yuan [6][20]. Summary by Sections Industry News - In the first half of 2024, 13,853 major projects were initiated, with a total investment of 100,654.3 billion yuan. This includes various infrastructure projects such as highways, railways, and water management [6][20]. Industry Data - The operating rate of engineering machinery in the first half of 2024 was 48.97%, with several provinces exceeding 60% [7][20]. Company Announcements - Langhong Technology reported a net profit of 24.96 million yuan for the first half of 2024, a 40.26% increase year-on-year [9]. - Haichang New Materials forecasted a net profit growth of 70%-100% for the first half of 2024 [10]. - Guangsha Huaneng projected a net profit increase of 29.09%-34.65% for the same period [11]. Market Review - From July 17 to July 23, 2024, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index fell by 1.67%, while the machinery equipment sector dropped by 1.97%, underperforming the index by 0.30 percentage points [13][15]. Weekly Insights - The estimated excavator sales for July are approximately 14,000 units, reflecting an 11.06% year-on-year increase, indicating a market recovery [20]. - The report suggests that recent policies aimed at optimizing the real estate market may positively impact housing sales and, consequently, the demand for engineering machinery [20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the light industry manufacturing and textile apparel sectors [4][30]. - Specific stock recommendations include "Buy" for companies such as Oppein Home, Sophia, Haotaitai, Pathfinder, and Semir Apparel [4][30]. Core Insights - Demand is showing signs of improvement, with leading packaging paper companies initiating a new round of price increases [8]. - The domestic retail sales of clothing, shoes, and furniture have remained stable, with growth rates of 1.30% and 2.60% year-on-year, respectively [4][30]. - The whiteboard paper market has experienced a price increase, with prices rising by 30.00 yuan/ton recently, indicating a positive demand outlook for the second half of the year [30]. Industry News - The whiteboard paper industry has seen a price increase of 50 to 100 yuan/ton starting from mid-July, following a previous increase of 200 to 300 yuan/ton for white card paper [8]. - The Southeast Asian e-commerce market has shown significant growth, with a total GMV of 114.6 billion USD in 2023, marking a 15.00% year-on-year increase [9]. Company Announcements - Huayi Group expects a net profit growth of 20.00% to 30.00% for the first half of 2024 [25]. - Songlin Technology anticipates a net profit increase of 66.05% to 90.96% for the same period [25][26]. Market Review - From July 15 to July 19, the light industry manufacturing sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 5.28 percentage points, while the textile and apparel sector lagged by 4.87 percentage points [3][27]. - The textile and apparel sector's retail sales have shown stability, with exports remaining steady, contributing to a positive outlook for leading manufacturers [30].

业 研 [Table_MainInfo] 6 月全球黄金 ETF 延续流入资金 行业周报 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------|------------------|--------------------| | | | ――金属行业周报 | | 分析师: 张珂 | : S1150523120001 | 2024 年 7 月 23 日 | | | | | 行业情况及产品价格走势初判 钢铁:下游处季节性消费淡季,钢铁消费环比下降,钢材产量随之走弱;当 前行业供需双弱,基本面对价格缺乏支撑,需关注宏观预期对价格的影响。 铜:CSPT 召开季度会议,敲定 2024 年第三季度铜精矿现货 TC 指导价为 30 美元/干吨,冶炼端仍存减产预期;消费淡季下,需求端仍表现一般,预计 短期铜价震荡运行。 铝:晋豫地区铝土矿未有全面大规模复产消息,叠加部分地区降雨影响,氧 化铝供给仍维持紧张局面;国内铝下游行业需求表现一般,电解铝维持供应 宽松,预计短期铝价震荡运行。 锂:据 Mysteel 消息,其调研的 42 家样本企业中,仅有 7 家锂盐生产企业在 7 月出现了停产检修,预计 7 月锂盐 ...

行 业 行业周报 [Table_MainInfo] 2024 年 6 月叉车销量约 11.17 万台,同比增长 11.1% ――机械设备行业周报 分析师: 宁前羽 SAC NO: S1150522070001 2024 年 7 月 17 日 [Table_Summary] 投资要点: [Table_Author] 证券分析师 宁前羽 022-23839174 ningqy@bhzq.com 行业要闻 1) 6 月叉车销量约 11.17 万台,同比增长 11.1%。 2) 6 月起重机销量为 4718 台,各品类均有所下降。 证 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------|-------| | [Table_IndInvest]子行业评级 | | | 通用设备 | 看好 | | 专用设备 | 中性 | | 交运设备 | 中性 | | 工程机械 | 看好 | | 自动化设备 | 看好 | 3) 欧盟委员会公告对原产于中国的移动式升降作业平台作出反倾销初裁。 公司重要公告 1) 柳工:发布 2024 年半年度业绩预告,归母净利润同比增长 45%-70%。 2) 山推股份 ...

行业周报 业 研 [Table_MainInfo] 基本面表现偏弱,需关注宏观预期 究 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|----------------------------|----------------|--------------------| | | | | ――金属行业周报 | | 分析师: 张珂 | SAC NO: | S1150523120001 | 2024 年 7 月 17 日 | | [Table_Author] 证券分析师 | [投资要点: Table_Summary] | | | | 张珂 | | | | | 022-23839062 | 行业情况及产品价格走势初判 | | | | zhangke@bhzq.com | | | | | [Table_Contactor] | | | | | [Table_IndInvest] 子行业评级 | | | | | 钢铁 | | | | | 有色金属 | | | | [Table 重点品种推荐 _StkSuggest] 博威合金 增持 洛阳钼业 增持 中金黄 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the light industry manufacturing and textile apparel sectors [4][32]. - Recommended stocks include: Oppein Home (增持), Sophia (增持), Good Wife (增持), Pathfinder (增持), and Semir Apparel (增持) [4][32]. Core Insights - The light industry manufacturing sector's export value for furniture and parts increased by 14.80% year-on-year, while the export value for clothing and accessories remained flat [4][32]. - The average net profit growth forecast for 97 companies in the light industry manufacturing and textile apparel sectors ranges from 48.64% to 103.81% [4][32]. - Companies with over 50% overseas revenue are expected to see net profit growth between 340.41% and 434.01% [4][32]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts in the U.S. is anticipated to improve overseas demand, positively impacting domestic exports of light industry and textile products [4][32]. Summary by Sections Industry News - In June 2024, the prices of pulp and raw paper in major markets showed a general decline, with specific price changes noted for various types of wood pulp [8]. - Uniqlo's parent company, Fast Retailing, reported a 10.4% year-on-year increase in total revenue for the first three fiscal quarters ending May 2024, indicating a strategic focus on opening flagship stores in China [9]. Company Announcements - Mona Lisa expects a net profit decline of 41.63% to 59.38% year-on-year for the first half of 2024 [25]. - Ru Yi Group anticipates a net profit increase of 177.48% to 193.29% year-on-year for the same period, driven by improved operational performance and sales [25][26]. Market Review - From July 8 to July 12, the light industry manufacturing sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.64 percentage points, while the textile apparel sector underperformed by 2.70 percentage points [3][27][30]. - The top five gainers in the light industry manufacturing sector included Hars (17.19%) and Aili Home (12.72%), while the top five losers included PIANO (-17.41%) and ST Jinshi (-16.70%) [27]. - In the textile apparel sector, the top gainers were Fuchun Dyeing and Weaving (11.15%) and Kanglongda (10.13%), with the top losers being Fuanna (-10.99%) and Hailan Home (-8.73%) [30]. Weekly Strategy - The report emphasizes the stable development of light textile product exports in the first half of the year and maintains a "Neutral" rating for the sectors, with specific stock recommendations [4][32].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" for General Equipment and Engineering Machinery, while "Neutral" for Specialized Equipment and Transportation Equipment [1]. Core Viewpoints - In June 2024, excavator sales reached 16,603 units, a year-on-year increase of 5.31%. Loader sales were 10,794 units, up 26.2% year-on-year. However, the operating hours for Komatsu excavators in China decreased by 2.5% year-on-year to 87.90 hours [2][11][12][13]. - The report anticipates a marginal improvement in engineering machinery demand in 2024 due to the introduction of large-scale equipment renewal policies and real estate optimization policies [4][29]. - Urban rail transit construction is expected to maintain growth, with fixed asset investment in rail transit likely to continue increasing under the goal of building a strong transportation nation [4][29]. Summary by Sections Industry News - June excavator sales were 16,603 units, a 5.31% increase year-on-year. Domestic sales were 7,661 units, up 25.6%, while exports were 8,942 units, down 7.51% [11]. - Loader sales in June were 10,794 units, a 26.2% increase year-on-year, with domestic sales at 5,296 units (up 22.6%) and exports at 5,498 units (up 29.8%) [12]. - Operating hours for Komatsu excavators in China were 87.90 hours in June, down 2.5% year-on-year [13]. Company Announcements - Jiechang Drive announced a projected net profit increase of 116.46%-128.18% for the first half of 2024 [17]. - Furui Special Equipment expects a net profit growth of 296%-381% for the same period [18]. Market Review - From July 3 to July 9, 2024, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index fell by 0.92%, while the mechanical equipment sector dropped by 2.81%, underperforming the index by 1.89 percentage points [20]. - As of July 9, 2024, the price-to-earnings ratio for the mechanical equipment sector was 22.46, with a valuation premium of 94.04% compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index [24]. Weekly Perspective - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the industry and recommends "Increase" ratings for Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion Heavy Industry, and CRRC [4][29].

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the steel industry and an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [1][2] Core Views - Steel: Downstream demand is in a seasonal off-peak period, with weak supply and demand dynamics. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate, with attention needed on the upcoming Third Plenum [1] - Copper: Antofagasta has agreed on a new processing fee (TC) of $23.25 per dry ton with some Chinese smelters, covering 50% of copper concentrate supply for H2 2024 and H1 2025. Copper prices may fluctuate in the short term due to moderate demand [1][2] - Aluminum: Supply of alumina remains tight, with no large-scale resumption of bauxite mining in Shanxi and Henan. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate due to steady production release and moderate downstream demand [1] - Lithium: Tariffs imposed by the US and EU on Chinese new energy vehicles and batteries may impact export demand. Lithium prices are expected to remain weak due to oversupply pressures [2] Key Data and Trends Steel - Demand: Shanghai terminal rebar and wire rod procurement volume was 16,300 tons on July 5, up 10.14% from June 28 [9] - Supply: Production of five major steel products was 8.9792 million tons on July 5, down 1.41% from June 28 and 4.14% year-on-year [10] - Inventory: Total steel inventory (social + mill) was 17.561 million tons on July 5, up 0.22% from June 28 and 10.11% year-on-year [14] - Raw materials: PB fines price at Qingdao Port rose 1.95% to 836 yuan/wet ton from June 28 to July 5 [15] Copper - Processing fees: TC/RC for Chinese smelters was $2.60 per ton and 0.26 cents per pound on July 5, up 8.33% from June 28 [22] - Prices: LME copper spot price rose 3.51% to $9,800 per ton, while Yangtze River nonferrous copper spot price rose 2.73% to 79,900 yuan per ton from June 28 to July 5 [23] - Inventory: LME copper inventory increased 6.38% to 191,600 tons, while SHFE copper inventory rose 0.39% to 250,600 tons [23] Aluminum - Prices: LME aluminum spot price rose 0.40% to $2,500 per ton, while Yangtze River nonferrous aluminum spot price rose 0.60% to 20,300 yuan per ton from June 28 to July 5 [25] - Inventory: LME aluminum inventory decreased 2.65% to 999,700 tons, while SHFE aluminum inventory fell 2.19% to 152,500 tons [25] Lithium - Prices: Domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate price fell 1.29% to 91,800 yuan per ton, while lithium concentrate (6%-6.5%) import price fell 0.98% to $1,015 per ton from June 28 to July 5 [31] Recommended Stocks - The report maintains "Overweight" ratings for the following stocks: Boway Alloy (601137), CMOC Group (603993), Zhongjin Gold (600489), Yunnan Tin (000960), and Zijin Mining (601899) [2] Market Performance - From June 28 to July 5, the steel sector rose 1.92%, while the non-ferrous metals sector gained 2.61%. Precious metals and industrial metals were among the top performers [43]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the light industry manufacturing and textile apparel sectors [36][45]. - Specific stock recommendations include "Buy" for Oppein Home, Sophia, Haotaitai, Pathfinder, and Semir Apparel [36]. Core Insights - The Turkish government will impose safeguard measures on imported corrugated base paper starting July 28, 2024, with a tax of $87/ton in the first year, decreasing slightly in subsequent years [10]. - The U.S. apparel market shows mixed signals, with signs of economic recovery such as rising imports and stable inventory levels, but concerns remain regarding changing consumer preferences and inflation pressures [11]. - In June, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities reached 10.47 million square meters, a new high for the first half of the year, despite a year-on-year decline of 24.72% [36]. Industry News - The report highlights the impact of real estate policy improvements on stabilizing market confidence and boosting demand in the real estate supply chain [36]. - The textile and apparel export situation has improved since the second quarter, with a 1.60% year-on-year increase in exports in May, reaching $13.247 billion [36]. Company Announcements - Xianggang Technology expects a net profit increase of 104.08% to 206.12% year-on-year for the first half of 2024 [30]. - Shangpin Home Furnishing plans to repurchase shares at a price not exceeding 20 yuan per share, with a total value between 25 million and 50 million yuan [30]. Market Review - From July 1 to July 5, the light industry manufacturing sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.51 percentage points, with a decline of 1.39% [32]. - The textile and apparel sector also underperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.46 percentage points, with a decline of 1.34% [34].