第二阶段：美国向全球实质性加征 10%关税，带来全球经济预期下修。总需求 风险大幅提升的背景下，后续制造业的压力或向 CAPEX 环节传导，供给侧或面 临新一轮出清压力。股市对于"稳预期稳信心"扮演重要角色，中央汇金、中国 诚通等、各地国资等以及多家央企国企上市公司表态增持回购，建议关注指数权 重股及国资上市公司（中国建筑、中国铁建、中国化学等、中建材系如天山股份、 中材科技、中国巨石等、地方国资如上海建工、四川路桥等）。 第三阶段："以我为主"，博弈国内政策逆周期调节。四月五月或是政策密集出 台的窗口期（领导人出访、政治局会议等）。期待三大方向：1）提振消费，补 足内需短板，对冲外需下行风险。建筑建材领域可关注文旅消费场景相关企业， 如大丰实业、风语筑；2）走出去，进一步拥抱"非美"市场。关注一带一路相 关标的，如中材国际、上海港湾、科达制造等；新疆地区是我国向西开放的桥头 堡，关注新疆交建、青松建化。3）投资端。基建投资基数较高，更多是偏结构 性机遇如水利投资、铁路投资等。地产投资数年回落，基数偏低；房价亦从历史 高点有较为明显回落；居民对"好房子"有明显需求。房地产作为内需最重要的 载体，期待后续政策发 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the public utility sector, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark index by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [5][34]. Core Insights - The impact of the US-China tariff conflict on domestic electricity consumption is limited, with the electricity consumption from the top four export industries to the US accounting for approximately 0.68% of total social electricity consumption in 2024 [2][27]. - Historically, during the last tariff conflict phase from March 2018 to January 2020, the hydropower sector outperformed the market, suggesting a potential for similar performance in the current context [3][28]. - The report suggests focusing on hydropower stocks with strong defensive attributes, such as Yangtze Power and Sichuan Investment Energy, as well as thermal power stocks with performance support like Huadian International and Anhui Energy [3][31]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Limited Impact of Tariff Conflict on Domestic Electricity Consumption - The export volume of the top four industries to the US has seen a slight decline over the past two years, with 2024 exports projected at $438.9 billion, a recovery from $410.9 billion in 2023 [10][16]. - The electricity consumption from the top four export industries to the US is relatively small, with a total of approximately 67 billion kWh, which is less than 2.3% of total electricity consumption [2][27]. Section 2: Hydropower Performance During Tariff Conflict - During the previous tariff conflict, the hydropower sector demonstrated significant excess returns compared to other energy sectors, benefiting from its defensive characteristics [3][28]. - The report highlights that hydropower stocks are expected to perform well again, with specific recommendations for stocks like Yangtze Power and Sichuan Investment Energy [3][31]. Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on hydropower stocks with strong defensive attributes and thermal power stocks that have solid performance support [3][31]. - The historical performance of hydropower during the last tariff conflict suggests a favorable outlook for similar conditions in the current market [3][28].

2025 年 4 月 14 日 行业研究 宇树发布 G1 搏击视频，工程机械景气度持续复苏 ——机械行业周报 2025 年第 15 周（2025.4.7-2025.4.13） 机械行业 买入（维持） 作者 分析师：黄帅斌 执业证书编号：S0930520080005 0755-23915357 huangshuaibin@ebscn.com 分析师：陈佳宁 执业证书编号：S0930512120001 021-52523851 chenjianing@ebscn.com 分析师：汲萌 执业证书编号：S0930524010002 021-52523859 jimeng@ebscn.com 分析师：李佳琦 执业证书编号：S0930524070006 021-52523836 lijiaqi@ebscn.com 联系人：夏天宇 xiatianyu@ebscn.com 行业与沪深 300 指数对比图 要点 重点子行业观点 人形机器人： 4 月 9 日，中共中央政治局常委、国务院总理李强主持召开经济形势专家和企业家 座谈会，听取对当前经济形势和下一步经济工作的意见建议。智元机器人联合创始 人兼首席技术官彭志辉参会并发言。 ...

超千亿资金加仓大盘宽基 ETF，北交所主题基金表现占优 ——基金市场与 ESG 产品周报 20250414 总量研究 要点 市场表现综述：大类资产方面，本周（下文如无特殊说明，本周均指代 2025.4.7-2025.4.11）黄金价格大涨，国内权益资产表现不佳。行业方面， 本周申万一级行业多数回调，农林牧渔、商贸零售、国防军工、食品饮料四 个行业呈现上涨，电力设备、通信、机械设备行业跌幅居前。基金市场方 面，本周权益型基金整体延续回撤，纯债型基金表现持续占优。 基金产品发行情况：本周国内新基市场有所升温，新成立基金 17 只，合计 发行份额为 204.69 亿份，新成立基金以股票型基金为主。其中股票型基金 14 只、债券型基金 2 只、混合型基金 1 只。全市场新发行基金 41 只，从类 型来看，股票型基金 25 只、债券型基金 11 只、混合型基金 4 只、FOF 基金 1 只。 基金产品表现跟踪：长期行业主题基金指数方面，本周各类行业主题基金净 值持续回撤，国防军工主题基金相对抗跌。截至 2025 年 4 月 11 日，本周国 防军工、消费、TMT、周期、医药、金融地产、行业均衡、行业轮动、新能 源主题基 ...

2025 年 4 月 14 日 行业研究 贷款投放超预期，关注需求修复持续性 ——2025 年 3 月份金融数据点评 银行业 买入（维持） 作者 分析师：王一峰 执业证书编号：S0930519050002 010-57378038 wangyf@ebscn.com 分析师：赵晨阳 执业证书编号：S0930524070005 010-57378030 zhaochenyang@ebscn.com 行业与沪深 300 指数对比图 2 月信用活动的"三组关系"——2025 年 2 月份金 融数据点评 1 月信贷"开门红"超预期——2025 年 1 月份金融 数据点评 社融增速触底回升——2024 年 12 月份金融数据点 评 年末贷款增长拖累因素增多——2024 年 11 月份金 融数据点评 货币增速筑底回升，静待政策"组合拳"显效—— 2024 年 10 月份金融数据点评 政策聚焦"房"与"股"，托举资产价格助力需求 修复——2024 年 9 月份金融数据点评 量价延续下行趋势，待需求侧发力托底——2024 年 8 月份金融数据点评 解读金融数据的三条主线——2024 年 7 月份金融 数据点评 信用活动延续偏弱 ...

2025 年 4 月 14 日 公司研究 镍冶炼项目放量，海外布局领先 ——中伟股份（300919.SZ）2024 年年报点评 要点 事件：中伟股份发布2024年年报，公司24年营业收入为402.23亿元，同比增长 17.36%；实现归母净利润14.67亿元，同比下降24.64%；实现扣非归母净利润 12.81亿元，同比下降19.26%。 单季度来看，24Q4营业收入为100.6亿元，同比增长24.46%，环比下降0.17%； 实现归母净利润1.43亿元，同比下降74.41%，环比下降68.82%；实现扣非归母 净利润1.4亿元，同比下降69.32%，环比下降62.67%，业绩下滑主要由于三元 材料需求不及预期。 镍冶炼项目产能放量带动收入高速增长：公司收入增长主要由于新能源金属业务 放量，2024年，新能源金属业务收入大幅增长297.96%，销量14.8万金吨，同 比增长454.40%，主要得益于镍冶炼项目产能放量；新能源金属业务毛利率为 7.54%，同比下降1.35pcts。 四氧化三钴业务高电压技术领先：公司四氧化三钴收入为22.45亿元，同比下降 24.11%，毛利率为10.57%，较上年增长0.91 ...

Group 1: Financial Data Highlights - In March 2025, new social financing (社融) reached 58,879 billion RMB, exceeding market expectations by 10,544 billion RMB and significantly higher than the average of 43,991 billion RMB from 2019 to 2024[3] - The year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.4%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[3] - New RMB loans in March amounted to 36,400 billion RMB, an increase of 5,500 billion RMB year-on-year[4] Group 2: Structural Insights - Short-term financing demand from enterprises surged, with short-term loans increasing by 4,600 billion RMB year-on-year, accounting for 93% of the total increase in RMB loans[10] - The M1 growth rate rebounded to 1.6%, a significant increase of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating improved liquidity conditions[11] - Total RMB deposits increased by 42,500 billion RMB in March, with household deposits rising by 30,900 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2,600 billion RMB[4] Group 3: Policy and Market Implications - The strong performance of social financing was driven by proactive fiscal policies, with government bond issuance in March increasing by 3,586 billion RMB year-on-year[9] - The report suggests that monetary policy will continue to support economic recovery through both total and structural measures[12] - Risks include potential underperformance of fiscal stimulus measures and liquidity shortages that could lead to market fluctuations[13]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - March US inflation unexpectedly cooled, primarily due to declines in energy and airfare prices, with previous "import rush" buffering tariff impacts [2] - High tariffs are expected to gradually reflect in inflation data, leading to supply shortages and rising costs, potentially causing inflation expectations to become unanchored [2] - The Federal Reserve may remain cautious in its interest rate decisions due to current trade policy uncertainties [2] Group 2: Market Strategy - A-share market is expected to gradually shake off short-term disturbances, with potential scenarios of "weak reality, weak sentiment" or "strong reality, weak sentiment" influencing defensive and cyclical investment styles [3] - Industries benefiting from domestic demand expansion and consumption promotion policies, such as home appliances, food and beverage, social services, and retail, are worth attention [3] - Companies actively repurchasing shares are also noteworthy, particularly in the electronics, automotive, and machinery sectors [3] Group 3: Financial Market Trends - A-share market experienced high volatility, with significant fluctuations influenced by US tariff policies and external liquidity [4] - The market is showing a reversal effect, with large-cap stocks outperforming, while liquidity, value, and momentum factors yielded negative returns [5] - ETF funds saw significant net inflows during market corrections, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment [4] Group 4: Credit and Bond Market - Credit and social financing data for March indicate positive growth trends, with no significant disagreements in market interpretations [6] - The secondary market for REITs showed fluctuations, with a weighted REITs index returning -0.85% during the week, reflecting mixed performance among listed REITs [7] - The convertible bond market experienced volatility, with the index declining by 1.7%, but still outperforming the equity market [9] Group 5: Industry-Specific Insights - The semiconductor industry is benefiting from high tariffs driving domestic substitution, particularly in analog, RF, storage, and CPU chip sectors [11] - The petrochemical sector remains optimistic about energy security and domestic substitution trends, with recommendations for companies like Sinopec and CNOOC [12][13] - The coal industry shows resilience despite falling oil and gas prices, with limited downside expected for coal prices [17] Group 6: Company Performance - Hangzhou Bank reported a 9.6% increase in revenue and an 18.1% rise in net profit for 2024, indicating strong fundamentals [21] - China Jinmao turned a profit in 2024 with a net profit of 1.07 billion yuan, showing improved land acquisition efforts [22] - Zijin Mining achieved a record high net profit of 10.17 billion yuan in Q1 2025, driven by increased copper and gold production [26] Group 7: Future Outlook - The electric new energy sector is expected to perform well despite recent tariff impacts, with optimism about domestic demand and supply-side policies [19] - The pharmaceutical sector is seeing increased support for innovation, particularly in AI and biomanufacturing, with strong investment opportunities identified [20] - The agricultural sector anticipates a significant reduction in pig production, with recommendations for companies with high cost recovery [18]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The growth of credit and social financing is positive, and a series of economic and financial indicators have rebounded since last autumn, indicating that the package of incremental policies introduced since September last year have effectively boosted social confidence and the economy has significantly recovered, demonstrating the effectiveness of China's macro - control policies [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Credit and Social Financing Growth - **Single - month Increment**: In March 2025, new RMB loans and social financing were 6.85 trillion and 5.89 trillion yuan respectively, significantly higher than the market - expected median values of 3.0 trillion and 4.8 trillion yuan, and increased by 3.76 trillion and 1.02 trillion yuan respectively compared with the same period last year [1]. - **Cumulative Increment**: In the first three months of this year, RMB loans and social financing increased by 3.53 trillion and 2.25 trillion yuan respectively compared with the same period last year, and the cumulative increment of social financing reached a record high [1]. - **Balance (Stock) Cumulative Growth Rate**: At the end of March 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of RMB loan balances and social financing stocks increased by 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points respectively compared with the end of February, and the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stocks reached the highest level since June 2024 [1]. - **Growth Momentum**: The increase in the bill market interest rate in late March 2025 reflected the tendency of some financial institutions to actively compress the scale of credit supply, indicating strong credit growth momentum in March. The significant decline in the bill market interest rate in April means that the increase in late March was mainly the result of credit regulation [1]. Rebound of Economic and Financial Indicators - **M1 Year - on - Year Growth Rate**: It was - 3.3% in September last year and rebounded to 1.6% in March this year [2]. - **Manufacturing PMI**: It was 49.1% in August last year and rebounded to 50.5% in March this year [2]. - **Cumulative Year - on - Year Growth Rate of Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods**: It was 3.3% in September last year and rebounded to 4.0% in February this year [2].

油价波动加剧，地缘政治不确定性叠加页岩油成本支撑油价。截至 4 月 11 日， 布伦特、WTI 原油分别报收 64.59、61.48 美元/桶，较月初分别下跌 13.3%、 13.6%。2025 年 3 月以来俄乌谈判无实质进展，地缘政治仍存不确定性。根 据达拉斯联储 25Q1 的调查，对于新开发油井，受访页岩油生产企业平均需要 65 美元/桶的 WTI 油价以实现可盈利的钻井，高于上年的 64 美元/桶，不同 区域新钻井的盈亏平衡油价在 61-70 美元/桶之间。美国页岩油参与原油市场 边际成本定价，和地缘政治风险共同对原油市场形成支撑。 2025 年 4 月 13 日 行业研究 坚守长期主义之六："三桶油"：不确定环境下的最大确定性 ——石油化工行业周报第 398 期（20250407-20250413） 要点 中美贸易冲突升级，能源安全重要性凸显。美东时间 4 月 10 日，美国政府宣 布对中国输美商品加征 125%关税。针对美方对华加征畸高关税，国务院关税 税则委员会于 12 日宣布对美征收关税税率提高至 125%，中美贸易冲突持续 升级。在中美脱钩的背景下，我国战略性资源的自主供应重要性凸显，202 ...