2025 年 12 月 14 日 策略研究 新一轮政策部署护航，A 股跨年行情可期 ——策略周专题（2025 年 12 月第 2 期） 要点 本周 A 股主要宽基指数大多收涨 本周 A 股主要宽基指数大多收涨。从主要宽基指数来看，本周 A 股主要宽基指 数大多收涨，仅上证指数、上证 50、沪深 300 下跌，其余指数均收涨，其中， 创业板指、科创 50、中证 500 涨幅居前。从估值来看，当前科创 50、万得全 A 等指数估值分位数相对偏高，截至 2025 年 12 月 12 日，其 2010 年以来 PE(TTM) 分位数均高于 80%。 本周中盘成长风格占优，申万一级行业走势分化，通信、国防军工等行业涨幅靠 前，而煤炭、石油石化等行业跌幅居前。从市场风格来看，本周主要风格指数分 化，中盘成长、小盘成长涨幅靠前，中盘价值、小盘价值跌幅居前。分行业来看， 本周申万一级行业走势分化，通信、国防军工、电子、机械设备涨幅居前，煤炭、 石油石化、钢铁、房地产跌幅居前。 本周重要事件回顾 政策方面，中央经济工作会议提出"要坚持稳中求进、提质增效"，明确延续"更 加积极的财政政策"和"适度宽松的货币政策"；此外，两部门部 ...

2025 年 12 月 14 日 行业研究 从银行视角看经济工作会议 ——2025 年中央经济工作会议精神解读 银行业 买入（维持） 作者 分析师：王一峰 执业证书编号：S0930519050002 010-57378038 wangyf@ebscn.com 分析师：董文欣 执业证书编号：S0930521090001 010-57378035 dongwx@ebscn.com 分析师：赵晨阳 执业证书编号：S0930524070005 010-57378030 zhaochenyang@ebscn.com 一是数量工具层面，央行或继续通过逆回购、买断式、MLF、国债买卖、降准等 多重渠道"花样放水"。现阶段央行流动性投放渠道丰富，逆回购、买断式、MLF、 国债买卖等工具涵盖多种期限与操作频次，对银行体系流动性"补水"并不局限 于降准一种方式。截至 12 月 12 日，包含逆回购、买断式、MLF、国债买卖等工 具在内的广义公开市场操作存量约 14 万亿。鉴于央行保持其"贷方地位"以维系 结构性流动性短缺框架有效性，综合考虑流动性投放的滚动频度、融资成本、基 础货币吞吐强度等因素，预计 2026 年需要央行通过二 ...

2025 年 12 月 14 日 行业研究 政策蓝图绘就，化工结构性机会浮现 ——基础化工行业周报（20251208-20251214） 要点 政策协同发力稳中求进，内需创新引领经济高质量发展。2025 年中央经济工 作会议于 12 月 10 日至 11 日在北京举行，习近平总书记发表重要讲话，会 议肯定了党中央团结带领全国各族人民迎难而上，推动高质量发展取得新成 效，经济社会发展主要目标顺利完成。会议明确 2025 年八大重点任务：坚 持内需主导，建设强大国内市场；坚持创新驱动，加紧培育壮大新动能；坚 持改革攻坚，增强高质量发展动力活力；坚持对外开放，推动多领域合作共 赢；坚持协调发展，促进城乡融合和区域联动；坚持"双碳"引领，推动绿 色转型等等。2025 年经济工作以稳中求进为主线，聚焦内需、创新、改革、 开放、民生、风险六大领域，政策协同发力。 深化国有企业改革，持续看好"三桶油"。2025 年中央经济工作会议强调要 制定和实施进一步深化国资国企改革方案，完善民营经济促进法配套法规政 策。此前政府工作报告也指出，24 年我国坚定不移全面深化改革扩大开放， 增强发展内生动力，深化国有企业改革，持续优化国有 ...

2025 年 12 月 13 日 总量研究 大市值风格占优，私募调研跟踪策略超额收益显著 ——量化组合跟踪周报 20251213 要点 量化市场跟踪 大类因子表现：本周（2025.12.08-2025.12.12，下同），规模因子、beta 因子、 非线性市值因子、获得正收益（1.18%、0.91%和 0.82%），BP 因子和流动性 因子获得负收益（-0.55%和-0.38%），市场大市值风格占优。 单因子表现：沪深 300 股票池中，本周表现较好的因子有总资产增长率(2.05%)、 单季度 ROA(1.71%)、换手率相对波动率(1.59%),表现较差的因子有对数市值因 子(-1.00%)、下行波动率占比(-1.10%)、大单净流入(-1.14%)。 中证 500 股票池中，本周表现较好的因子有单季度 EPS(1.61%)、总资产增长率 (1.39%)、动量弹簧因子(1.22%),表现较差的因子有市销率 TTM 倒数(-2.49%)、 下行波动率占比(-2.55%)、市净率因子(-3.06%)。 流动性 1500 股票池中，本周表现较好的因子有总资产增长率(2.25%)、单季度 营业收入同比增长率(2.0 ...

总量研究 二级市场价格继续下跌，市场交投热情环比下降 ——REITs 周度观察（20251208-20251212） 要点 2025 年 12 月 13 日 1、 二级市场 2025 年 12 月 8 日-2025 年 12 月 12 日（以下简称"本周"），我国已上市公 募 REITs 二级市场价格整体呈现波动下跌的态势：加权 REITs 指数收于 180.06， 本周回报率为-0.23%。与其他主流大类资产相比，回报率由高至低排序分别为： 黄金>A 股>纯债>REITs>可转债>美股>原油。 从项目属性来看，本周产权类和特许经营权类 REITs 的二级市场价格走势有所分 化：产权类 REITs 有所上涨，特许经营权类 REITs 有所下跌。 从底层资产类型来看，本周市政设施类 REITs 涨幅最大。本周回报率排名前三的 底层资产类型分别为市政设施类、水利设施类和新型基础设施类。 从单只 REIT 层面来看，有 34 只 REITs 上涨，有 2 只与上周持平，有 41 只 REITs 下跌。涨跌幅方面，涨幅排名前三的分别是华泰南京建邺 REIT、中金重庆两江 REIT 和广发成都高投产业园 REIT。 成 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From December 8 to December 12, 2025, the issuance volume of credit bonds increased month - on - month, and the credit spreads of various industries showed mixed changes. The primary market issuance was active, and the secondary market trading volume increased significantly [1][24][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market 3.1.1 Issuance Statistics - During the week, 369 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 459.512 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 35.34%. Among them, 174 industrial bonds were issued, amounting to 186.503 billion yuan (a 62.28% month - on - month increase, accounting for 40.59%); 149 urban investment bonds were issued, totaling 88.809 billion yuan (a 7.82% month - on - month decrease, accounting for 19.33%); and 46 financial bonds were issued, reaching 184.2 billion yuan (a 43.60% month - on - month increase, accounting for 40.09%) [11] - The average issuance term of credit bonds was 2.80 years. The average issuance terms of industrial bonds, urban investment bonds, and financial bonds were 2.36 years, 3.34 years, and 2.48 years respectively [12] - The average issuance coupon rate of credit bonds was 2.24%. The average issuance coupon rates of industrial bonds, urban investment bonds, and financial bonds were 2.19%, 2.39%, and 1.96% respectively [17] 3.1.2 Cancellation of Issuance Statistics - Four credit bonds were cancelled for issuance during the week [22] 3.2 Secondary Market 3.2.1 Credit Spread Tracking - In the Shenwan primary industries, for AAA - rated industries, the largest upward movement in credit spread was in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (up 3.1BP), and the largest downward movement was in medicine and biology (down 4.2BP). For AA + - rated industries, the largest upward movement was in electrical equipment (up 2.7BP), and the largest downward movement was in building materials (down 12.7BP). For AA - rated industries, the largest upward movement was in machinery (up 4.9BP), and the largest downward movement was in public utilities (down 2.8BP) [3] - For urban investment bonds by region, among AAA - rated bonds, the largest upward movement in credit spread was in Yunnan (up 4.7BP), and the largest downward movement was in Guangdong (down 3.7BP). Among AA + - rated bonds, the largest upward movement was in Beijing (up 13BP), and the largest downward movement was in Shaanxi (down 4.8BP). Among AA - rated bonds, the largest upward movement was in Yunnan (up 4.9BP), and the largest downward movement was in Shaanxi (down 9.8BP) [26] 3.2.2 Trading Volume Statistics - The total trading volume of credit bonds was 1625.428 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 36.58%. The top three in terms of trading volume were commercial bank bonds, corporate bonds, and medium - term notes. Specifically, commercial bank bonds had a trading volume of 628.038 billion yuan (a 60.23% month - on - month increase, accounting for 38.64%); corporate bonds had a trading volume of 402.758 billion yuan (a 10.55% month - on - month increase, accounting for 24.78%); and medium - term notes had a trading volume of 294.033 billion yuan (a 23.12% month - on - month increase, accounting for 18.09%) [4] 3.2.3 Actively Traded Bonds This Week - The report selected the top 20 urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds in terms of trading volume this week for investors' reference, including details such as security code, security abbreviation, trading volume, average trading yield, ChinaBond valuation yield, ChinaBond implied rating, remaining term, and issuer [30][32][33]

2025 年 12 月 13 日 行业研究 信贷投放较早呈现年末收官特征 ——2025 年 11 月份金融数据点评 银行业 买入（维持） 作者 分析师：王一峰 执业证书编号：S0930519050002 010-57378038 wangyf@ebscn.com 分析师：赵晨阳 执业证书编号：S0930524070005 010-57378030 zhaochenyang@ebscn.com 行业与沪深 300 指数对比图 资料来源：Wind 相关研报 贷款增长再现"小月"，社融与货币降速——2025 年 10 月份金融数据点评 贷款熨平波动，货币持续活化——2025 年 9 月份 金融数据点评 社融遇拐点，货币见活化——2025 年 8 月份金融 数据点评 信贷扩张季节性回落，存款资金入市节奏提速 —— 2025 年 7 月份金融数据点评 信用活动季节性走强——2025 年 6 月份金融数据 点评 信用扩张走向量价平衡——2025 年 5 月份金融数 据点评 如何看待 4 月社融与信贷"大劈叉"？——2025 年 4 月份金融数据点评 贷款投放超预期，关注需求修复持续性——2025 年 3 月份金融数据点评 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, both the convertible bond market and the equity market rose. Currently, some individual bonds fluctuate greatly, and their future trends may further diverge. The overall trading difficulty in the market remains high. It is recommended to comprehensively judge based on convertible bond terms and the situation of the underlying stocks, select bonds carefully, and focus on new bond opportunities in industries catalyzed by policies and industries with high prosperity [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情 - From December 8 to December 12, 2025 (a total of 5 trading days), the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by +0.20% (last week's increase was +0.08%), and the CSI All - Share Index changed by +0.19% (last week's increase was +0.77%). Since 2025, the CSI Convertible Bond Index has risen by +16.50%, and the CSI All - Share Index has risen by +21.83% [1] - By bond rating, high - rated bonds (AAA), medium - high - rated bonds (AA+), medium - rated bonds (AA), medium - low - rated bonds (AA -), and low - rated bonds (AA - and below) rose by - 0.13%, - 0.61%, +0.17%, +0.25%, and - 0.42% respectively this week. Medium - rated and medium - low - rated bonds rose [1] - By convertible bond scale, large - scale convertible bonds (bond balance > 2 billion yuan), medium - large - scale convertible bonds (balance between 1.5 and 2 billion yuan), medium - scale convertible bonds (balance between 1 and 1.5 billion yuan), small - medium - scale convertible bonds (balance between 0.5 and 1 billion yuan), and small - scale convertible bonds (balance < 0.5 billion yuan) rose by - 0.51%, - 0.45%, +1.04%, - 0.29%, and - 0.24% respectively this week. Except for medium - scale convertible bonds, all others declined [2] - By conversion parity, ultra - high - parity bonds (conversion value > 130 yuan), high - parity bonds (conversion value between 120 and 130 yuan), medium - high - parity bonds (conversion value between 110 and 120 yuan), medium - parity bonds (conversion value between 100 and 110 yuan), medium - low - parity bonds (conversion value between 90 and 100 yuan), low - parity bonds (conversion value between 80 and 90 yuan), and ultra - low - parity bonds (conversion value < 80 yuan) rose by +5.15%, - 1.39%, - 1.03%, +0.57%, - 2.16%, +2.22%, and - 0.60% respectively this week, showing divergent trends [2] Convertible Bond Price, Parity, and Conversion Premium Rate - As of December 12, 2025, there were 408 outstanding convertible bonds (407 at the end of last week), with a balance of 556.12 billion yuan (556.996 billion yuan at the end of last week) [3] - The average convertible bond price was 130.13 yuan (129.94 yuan at the end of last week), with a percentile of 91.57% (from the beginning of 2023 to December 12, 2025) [3] - The average convertible bond parity was 99.99 yuan (100.82 yuan at the end of last week), with a percentile of 86.66% [3] - The average convertible bond conversion premium rate was 31.41% (30.76% at the end of last week), with a percentile of 37.36% [3] Convertible Bond Performance and Allocation Direction - This week, both the convertible bond market and the equity market rose. Some individual bonds fluctuate greatly, and future trends may further diverge. The overall trading difficulty in the market remains high. It is recommended to comprehensively judge based on convertible bond terms and the situation of the underlying stocks, select bonds carefully, and focus on new bond opportunities in industries catalyzed by policies and industries with high prosperity [4] Convertible Bond Increase Situation - The top 15 convertible bonds in terms of increase this week include "Zai22 Convertible Bond" with an increase of 50.01%, "Huamao Convertible Bond" with an increase of 22.56%, "Weidao Convertible Bond" with an increase of 21.09%, etc. [21]

2025 年 12 月 12 日 总量研究 金融数据：看淡、看全、看明白 ——2025 年 12 月 12 日利率债观察 要点 1、金融数据：看淡、看全、看明白 2024 年 12 月召开的中央经济工作会议提出"使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长 同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配"。2025 年国内生产总值和居民消费 价格的预期目标分别为"增长 5%左右"和"涨幅 2%左右"。 2025 年 11 月末社融同比增长 8.5%、M2 同比增长 8%，既高于前文中的 5%和 2%，也略高于两者之和（注：即 7%），还高于 2025 年前三季度名义 GDP 增 速，这说明金融有力有效地支持了实体经济发展。此外，2025 年 11 月末社融 和 M2 的增速分别较去年同期提高了 0.7 个和 0.9 个百分点，这充分体现出今年 货币政策的适度宽松取向。 在过去的若干年中，每年中央经济工作会议皆有与"使社会融资规模、货币供应 量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配"相类似的提法。例如，2023 年 12 月召开的中央经济工作会议中提出"社会融资规模、货币供应量同经济增 长和价格水平预期目标相匹配"；2022 年 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the non-metallic building materials sector [6]. Core Insights - The glass industry is characterized by heavy asset attributes and continuous production, leading to rigid supply dynamics. The report highlights the structural differentiation between float glass and photovoltaic glass, indicating that the float glass sector is experiencing a downward cycle while photovoltaic glass is entering a growth phase [8][10]. Supply and Production Characteristics - The float glass production process is the mainstream method, accounting for 80%-90% of total production. The industry is heavily reliant on raw materials such as silica sand and soda ash, with fixed assets and construction in progress representing approximately 60% and 40% of total revenue for float and photovoltaic glass leaders, respectively [1][2]. - The glass production lines have a design lifespan of 8-10 years, necessitating continuous operation once ignited, which creates supply rigidity. The report notes that the supply side is influenced by policies that restrict new capacity and require capacity replacement [2][42]. Demand Analysis - Demand for float glass is primarily driven by the real estate sector and automotive industry, with real estate construction area being the leading factor. The report predicts a contraction in float glass demand over the next two to three years, although the decline will narrow [2][3]. - Photovoltaic glass demand is driven by the growth in photovoltaic installations and the penetration rate of double-glass modules, with expectations for continued growth in global and Chinese photovoltaic installations until 2030 [2][3]. Cost Structure and Profitability - The cost structure of the glass industry is dominated by raw materials and energy, accounting for over 80% of total costs. Float glass is sensitive to raw material prices, while photovoltaic glass is more sensitive to energy prices [3]. - The report indicates that the gross margin gap between leading and lagging companies in the float glass sector has widened from 14 percentage points to 20 percentage points from 2015 to 2024, reflecting increased profitability for leading firms [3]. Competitive Advantage Analysis - Scale advantages and vertical integration are key factors for leading companies to maintain low-cost advantages. The report highlights that leading firms like Xinyi Glass and Qibin Group have significantly outperformed their peers in revenue scale, further widening the gap [4]. - Leading companies are increasing their self-supply ratio of raw materials to reduce production costs, with Qibin Group's self-supply ratio of silica sand increasing from 48% in 2019 to 70% in 2024 [4]. Investment Recommendations - For the float glass sector, the report suggests focusing on leading companies such as Xinyi Glass and Qibin Group, as the trend of increasing concentration among leading firms is expected to continue [4][10]. - In the photovoltaic glass sector, the report anticipates a wave of small and medium-sized enterprises exiting the market, leading to increased concentration among leading firms like Xinyi Solar and Flat Glass [4][10].