Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the petrochemical industry [6] Core Views - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have eased, leading to a decline in oil prices, with Brent and WTI crude oil prices reported at $66.34 and $65.07 per barrel respectively, down 12.5% and 12.1% from the previous week [1] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran's nuclear program and conflicts involving Israel and Palestine, continue to pose significant risks to oil prices [2] - OPEC+ is expected to continue its large-scale production increase plans, with a focus on monitoring the execution of these plans [3] - Potential mergers and acquisitions in the energy sector, particularly the discussions between Shell and BP, could accelerate consolidation in the overseas energy market [4] - The long-term outlook for oil supply and demand remains positive, with a focus on major Chinese oil companies and the oil service sector, as well as chemical product demand recovery driven by macroeconomic factors [5] Summary by Sections Geopolitical Risks - The easing of Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions has resulted in a significant drop in oil prices, returning to levels prior to the Israel-Iran conflict [1] - Despite the ceasefire, the underlying issues related to Iran's nuclear program remain unresolved, indicating ongoing geopolitical risks [2] OPEC+ Production Plans - OPEC+ is preparing to consider further production increases in its upcoming meeting, with a notable increase of 411,000 barrels per day agreed upon by eight member countries [3] Mergers and Acquisitions - Shell is reportedly in preliminary talks to acquire BP, which could lead to the largest energy sector merger since the Exxon-Mobil deal in 1999 [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a continued positive outlook for major Chinese oil companies and oil service firms, as well as for the petrochemical sector driven by recovering demand [5]

近段时间市场中对银行负债压力的话题讨论较多。不少投资者认为，在 5 月 20 日新一轮存款降息后，大量存款流向银行理财等资管产品，因此明显加大了银行 的负债压力。 我们认为，在讨论的初始应厘清负债压力的概念：首先，所谓的负债压力，既取 决于负债缺口的规模，也取决于缺口补充的难度。其次，对负债缺口的衡量有两 个不同的尺度，一个是相对于监管指标的，另一个是相对于银行自身诉求的。 2025 年 6 月 29 日 总量研究 由银行负债压力想到的 ——2025 年 6 月 29 日利率债观察 要点 1、由银行负债压力想到的 不难看出，银行以此方式所获得的存款规模时点数的提升并无法提高其支持实体 经济的质效，而且还会降低自身乃至于行业的盈利能力。我们认为，这是典型的 内卷式竞争。 规模情结所导致的内卷在资产端也有体现，其结果是形成了贷款利率的不合理下 行。譬如，今年一季度曾出现过利率 2.5%左右的消费贷产品。综合存、贷款两 端来看，规模情结压低了银行业的净息差和利润增速，影响了金融支持实体经济 的可持续性，亦制约了货币政策的空间。 我们注意到，近些年货币当局充分发挥利率自律机制作用，规范存贷款市场竞争 秩序，取得了很好 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Volume Timing Indicator - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses volume indicators to determine market timing signals, identifying bullish or bearish trends based on trading volume dynamics[12][21] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the volume timing signal for major indices 2. Assign "bullish" or "bearish" views based on the volume trend 3. As of June 27, 2025, all indices except the North Exchange 50 showed bullish signals[21][22] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures market sentiment shifts based on volume trends[21] 2. Model Name: Momentum Sentiment Indicator - **Model Construction Idea**: This model evaluates market sentiment by analyzing the proportion of stocks with positive returns in the past N days, aiming to identify market optimism or overheating[23] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the proportion of stocks in the CSI 300 index with positive returns over the past N days $ \text{Proportion} = \frac{\text{Number of stocks with positive returns in N days}}{\text{Total number of stocks in CSI 300}} $ 2. Smooth the indicator using two moving averages with windows N1 and N2 (N1 > N2) 3. Generate signals: - Bullish when the short-term average (fast line) exceeds the long-term average (slow line) - Neutral when the fast line is below the slow line 4. Parameters: N = 230, N1 = 50, N2 = 35[26][27] - **Model Evaluation**: The model is effective in capturing upward opportunities but may miss gains during sustained market exuberance and struggles to predict downturns[23][26] 3. Model Name: Moving Average Sentiment Indicator - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses an eight-moving-average system to assess market trends and sentiment by comparing the closing price of the CSI 300 index with its moving averages[29] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate eight moving averages for the CSI 300 index: 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, and 233 days 2. Count the number of moving averages below the current closing price 3. Assign sentiment values: - Positive sentiment if more than five moving averages are below the closing price - Neutral or negative sentiment otherwise 4. Generate signals based on sentiment values[29] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a clear relationship between sentiment states and index trends, making it a useful tool for market timing[29] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Volume Timing Indicator - **Signal**: Bullish for all indices except North Exchange 50, which remains bearish as of June 27, 2025[21][22] 2. Momentum Sentiment Indicator - **Signal**: Fast line rising, slow line declining, maintaining a bullish view for the CSI 300 index[27] 3. Moving Average Sentiment Indicator - **Signal**: CSI 300 index is in a positive sentiment zone as of June 27, 2025[29] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Cross-Sectional Volatility - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the dispersion of stock returns within an index to assess the alpha environment[34] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the cross-sectional volatility of index constituents weekly 2. Compare the current week's volatility with historical averages to determine the alpha environment[34][38] - **Factor Evaluation**: - Short-term alpha environment improved for CSI 300 and CSI 500 but weakened for CSI 1000 in the past week - Over the past quarter, CSI 300 showed a strong alpha environment, while CSI 500 and CSI 1000 were weaker[34][38] 2. Factor Name: Time-Series Volatility - **Factor Construction Idea**: Tracks the volatility of index constituents over time to evaluate market stability and alpha potential[38] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the time-series volatility of index constituents weekly 2. Compare the current week's volatility with historical averages to assess the alpha environment[38][41] - **Factor Evaluation**: - Short-term alpha environment improved for all indices in the past week - Over the past quarter, CSI 300 and CSI 500 showed strong alpha environments, while CSI 1000 was moderate[38][41] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Cross-Sectional Volatility - **CSI 300**: - Last week: Increased, indicating improved short-term alpha environment - Quarterly average: 1.65%, in the upper range of the past six months[34][38] - **CSI 500**: - Last week: Increased, indicating improved short-term alpha environment - Quarterly average: 1.88%, in the lower range of the past six months[34][38] - **CSI 1000**: - Last week: Decreased, indicating a weaker short-term alpha environment - Quarterly average: 2.23%, in the middle range of the past six months[34][38] 2. Time-Series Volatility - **CSI 300**: - Last week: Increased, indicating improved short-term alpha environment - Quarterly average: 0.52%, in the upper range of the past six months[38][41] - **CSI 500**: - Last week: Increased, indicating improved short-term alpha environment - Quarterly average: 0.44%, in the upper range of the past six months[38][41] - **CSI 1000**: - Last week: Increased, indicating improved short-term alpha environment - Quarterly average: 0.27%, in the middle range of the past six months[38][41]

2025 年 6 月 28 日 策略研究 2025 年上半年市场回顾：蓄势跃升 ——策略周专题（2025 年 6 月第 4 期） 要点 本周 A 股收涨 本周 A 股收涨。本周 A 股主要宽基指数均收涨，创业板指、中证 500 等指数涨幅 靠前，上证 50、上证指数涨幅靠后。从市场风格来看，本周主要风格指数均收涨， 小盘成长、中盘成长涨幅居前，而大盘价值、大盘成长涨幅靠后。分行业来看，申 万一级行业大多收涨，计算机、国防军工等行业涨幅靠前，石油石化、食品饮料等 行业跌幅靠前。 2025 年上半年市场回顾：蓄势跃升 市场上半年呈"N 型"走势，上证指数小幅收涨。从上半年的市场表现来看，受海 内外多重因素交织影响，A 股上半年走势较为震荡，年初至 6 月 27 日，上证指数 上涨 2.2%。分阶段来看，市场上半年的走势可以分为"震荡上行——震荡调整— —震荡上行"三个阶段，整体呈"N 型"走势。年初至 3 月中旬，AI 产业加速发展 与政策暖风共振，A 股市场震荡上行；3 月下旬至 4 月上旬，受特朗普"对等关税" 影响，A 股市场震荡调整；4 月中旬至年中，国内政策积极发力，叠加中美贸易摩 擦阶段性缓和，市场震 ...

2025 年 6 月 28 日 总量研究 二级市场价格有所回调，两只新 REITs 成功上市 ——REITs 周度观察（20250623-20250627） 要点 1、 二级市场 2025 年 6 月 23 日-2025 年 6 月 27 日（以下简称"本周"），我国已上市公募 REITs 二级市场价格整体呈现下跌的趋势：加权 REITs 指数收于 143.24，本周 回报率为-1.22%。与其他主流大类资产相比，回报率由高至低排序分别为：可 转债> 美股>A 股>纯债>REITs>黄金>原油。 从项目属性来看，本周产权类和特许经营权类 REITs 的二级市场价格走势均呈现 下跌趋势，产权类 REITs 的跌幅更小。 3、风险提示 作者 从底层资产类型来看，本周交通基础设施类 REITs 跌幅最大。本周回报率排名前 三的底层资产类型分别为保障房类、能源类和生态环保类。 从单只 REIT 层面来看，本周公募 REITs 涨跌互现，除去本周上市的中金亦庄产 业园 REIT 和中金中国绿发商业 REIT 后，有 6 只 REITs 上涨，有 60 只 REITs 下跌。除去本周上市的两只新 REITs 后，涨跌幅方 ...

2025 年 6 月 28 日 总量研究 周内涨幅创年内至今最高 ——可转债周报（2025 年 6 月 23 日至 2025 年 6 月 27 日） 要点 1、市场行情 本周（2025 年 6 月 23 日至 2025 年 6 月 27 日，共 5 个交易日）转债市场显著 上涨，全周中证转债指数涨跌幅为+2.1%（上一交易周为-0.2%），周内涨幅创 年内最高；本周中证全指变动为+3.3%。2025 年开年以来，中证转债涨跌幅为 +6.6%，中证全指数涨跌幅为+3.4%，转债市场表现好于权益市场。 分评级来看，高评级券（评级为 AA+及以上）、中评级券（评级为 AA）、低评 级券（评级为 AA-及以下）本周涨跌幅分别为+1.75%、+2.47%、+2.78%，低 评级券本周涨幅最多。分转债规模看，大规模转债（债券余额大于 50 亿元）、 中规模转债（余额在 5 至 50 亿元之间）、小规模转债（余额小于 5 亿元）本周 涨跌幅分别为+1.95%、+2.23%和+3.05%，小规模转债涨幅最多。分平价来看， 超高平价券（转股价值大于 130 元）、高平价券（转股价值在 110 至 130 元之 间）、中平价券（ ...

要点 量化市场跟踪 大类因子表现：本周全市场股票池中，Beta 因子和流动性因子分别获取正收益 1.06%、0.37%；市值因子和残差波动率因子分别获取负收益-0.64%、-0.31%， 市场表现为小市值风格；盈利因子获取负收益-0.30%；其余风格因子表现一般。 2025 年 6 月 28 日 总量研究 市场小市值风格明显，大宗交易组合超额收益显著 ——量化组合跟踪周报 20250628 单因子表现：沪深 300 股票池中，本周表现较好的因子有单季度净利润同比增 长率 (1.94%)、5 日反转 (1.83%)、标准化预期外收入(1.79%)。表现较差的因 子有大单净流入(-0.87%)、ROIC 增强因子 (-0.63%)、单季度 ROA (-0.45%)。 中证 500 股票池中，本周表现较好的因子有总资产增长率(1.84%)、单季度营业 收入同比增长率 (1.56%)、单季度营业利润同比增长率 (1.07%)。表现较差的因 子有营业利润率 TTM (-1.79%)、单季度 EPS (-1.67%)、大单净流入 (-1.60%)。 流动性 1500 股票池中，本周表现较好的因子有单季度营业利润同比增长率 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [4][6]. Core Insights - The company's core business includes the development, manufacturing, and sales of home respiratory devices and cochlear implant components, with expectations for gradual performance improvement in 2025 [2]. - The company has successfully completed the first two phases of its production base in Malaysia, with the third phase expected to be operational by the end of 2025, enhancing its production capacity [3]. - A stock incentive plan has been introduced, reflecting the company's confidence in long-term growth, with performance targets set for 2025-2027 [4]. Summary by Sections Business Performance - The home respiratory device component business is expected to return to normal growth rates in 2024, supported by the Malaysian base potentially mitigating tariff risks [2]. - The revenue from cochlear implant components is showing steady growth, and new product components are experiencing rapid revenue increases [2]. Financial Forecasts - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are 444 million and 539 million yuan, respectively, reflecting a downward revision of 11.6% and 16.0% from previous estimates [4]. - The report projects a net profit of 656 million yuan for 2027, indicating growth potential [4]. Valuation Metrics - The company is positioned as a leader in precision medical device components, with a projected revenue growth rate of 21.13% for 2025 and 20.22% for 2026 [5]. - The estimated P/E ratio for 2025 is 22, with a projected P/B ratio of 2.5, indicating a favorable valuation relative to its growth prospects [5][12].

2025 年 6 月 27 日 公司研究 Agent 产品持续更新，收费模式变更验证产品力 24 年各业务收入：24 年公司针对大企业客户的苍穹&星瀚实现收入 13.04 亿 元人民币，同比增长 32.9%，合同签约金额达约 21 亿元，同比增长 52%；针 对中型客户的星空实现收入 21.53 亿元，同比增长 10.3%；小微业务实现收 入 12.29 亿元（yoy+13.8%）。我们预计 25 年公司大企业业务将保持稳健增 长，中型和小微业务受到宏观经济影响有所承压。 盈利预测、估值与评级：公司聚焦订阅优先、AI 优先。受益于国产替代浪潮， 苍穹&星瀚订单快速增长，星空旗舰版有望成为新增长点。鉴于中型&小微业 务受到宏观经济影响增速有所放缓，公司 Agent 产品仍处于商业化初期，收 费模式变化对收入的实际影响仍需观察，基于保守性原则，我们小幅下修 25-26 年收入预测至 70.0/78.7 亿元（较上次预测-6%/-9%），新增 27 年收 入预测 88.2 亿元；下修 25-26 年归母净利润预测至 1.3/3.8 亿元（较上次预 测-24%/-1%），新增 27 年归母净利润预测 6.6 亿元。作 ...

Profit Trends - In May 2025, industrial enterprises' profit growth rate fell to -9.1%, down from +3.0% in April 2025, marking a significant decline[4] - Cumulative profit growth for January to May 2025 was -1.1%, compared to +1.4% for January to April 2025[2] - Cumulative revenue growth for the same period was +2.7%, down from +3.2% in the previous four months[2] Contributing Factors - The decline in profit growth is attributed to weakening export support, increased year-on-year declines in industrial product prices, and lower profit margins[3] - The profit margin for May 2025 decreased to 5.3%, down from 5.4% in April 2025, due to rising operating costs and high base effects from the previous year[4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw an expanded year-on-year decline from -2.7% to -3.3% in May 2025, influenced by falling international oil prices and weak domestic demand[5] Sector Performance - By sector, mining profits fell by 29.0%, while manufacturing and electricity, gas, and water supply sectors saw growth rates of 5.4% and 3.7%, respectively, for January to May 2025[14] - The manufacturing sector's profit margin increased to 4.25%, while the mining sector's margin decreased to 16.92%[14] Market Dynamics - Private enterprises maintained a positive profit growth rate of +3.4% for January to May 2025, while state-owned enterprises experienced a decline of -7.4%[26] - Industrial enterprises are currently in a phase of active destocking, with inventory growth at 3.5%, down from 4.0% in the previous month[28] Outlook and Risks - Future profit recovery for industrial enterprises remains uncertain due to potential overseas demand fluctuations, ongoing negative price trends, and insufficient effective demand[33] - Risks include policy implementation falling short of expectations and unexpected changes in the international political and economic landscape[34]