一周观点 总量研究 本周观点 | 总量研究 2 | | --- | | 本周观点 2 | | 重点报告 2 | | 行业研究 4 | | 本周观点 4 | | 重点报告 5 | | 公司研究 6 | | 重点报告 6 | | 重点报告摘要 7 | | 总量研究 7 | | 行业研究 10 | | 公司研究 12 | | 领域 | 一周观点 | 分析师 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 新一轮政策部署护航，A 股跨年行情可期。一方面，未来国内经济政策有望持续发力，经济增 | | | | 长有望保持在合理区间，进一步夯实资本市场繁荣发展的基础；另一方面，政策红利释放，有 | | | 策略 | 望提振市场信心，进一步吸引各类资金积极流入；此外，历史来看，"十三五"和"十四五" | 张宇生 | | | 开局之年 A 股市场均有不错的表现，历史上开局之年的积极表现有望在 2026 年得到延续。 | | | | 本周国内权益市场指数普遍上涨，创业板指上涨 1.86%,周期主题基金表现占优，消费、医药 | | | 金工 | 主题基金净值回调。国内市场新成立基金 39 只，合计发行份额为 365.89 亿份 ...

要点 2025 年 12 月 15 日 行业研究 12 月高炉产能利用率有望低于去年同期水平 ——金属周期品高频数据周报（2025.12.8-12.14） 流动性：M1 M2 增速差在 9 月创下近 56 个月高点后，连续两个月回落。 （1）BCI 中小企业融资环境指数 2025 年 11 月值为 52.50，环比上月 +0.17%；（2）M1 和 M2 增速差与上证指数存在较强的正向相关性：M1 和 M2 增速差在 2025 年 11 月为-3.1 个百分点，环比-1.10 个百分点；（3）本 周伦敦金现价格为 4299 美元/盎司。 基建和地产链条：高炉产能利用率连续两周低于去年同期水平。（1）本周 价格变动：螺纹-0.61%、水泥价格指数+0.86%、橡胶+1.71%、焦炭 -3.29%、焦煤-0.71%、铁矿-0.63%；（2）本周全国高炉产能利用率、水 泥、沥青开工率环比-1.16pct、-0.30pct、+0.3pct。 地产竣工链条：钛白粉毛利润处于低位水平。本周钛白粉、玻璃的价格环比 分别+0.00%、+0.00%，钛白粉毛利润为-1679 元/吨，平板玻璃本周开工率 73.82%。 工业品链 ...

2025 年 12 月 15 日 总量研究 交易信心有所提振，后市仍将震荡上行 ——金融工程市场跟踪周报 20251215 要点 本周市场核心观点与市场复盘： 本周（2025.12.08-2025.12.12，下同）A 股震荡上行，市场量能有所提振。截 至周五（2025.12.12，下同），主要宽基指数量能择时指标均转为看多信号。沪 深 300、中证 500 指数时序波动率、横截面波动率均有提升，Alpha 环境好转。 资金面方面，融资增加额环比提升，资金交易情绪积极。 12 月中央经济工作会议进一步提振市场信心，资金面叠加情绪指标改善下，市 场或进一步震荡上行。风格方面，本周市场大市值风格显著、基本面因子表现相 对占优，市场或逐步实现资金面驱动向基本面驱动的过渡。中长线持续看好"红 利+科技"配置主线。 本周上证综指下跌 0.34%，上证 50 下跌 0.25%，沪深 300 下跌 0.08%，中证 500 上涨 1.01%，中证 1000 上涨 0.39%，创业板指上涨 2.74%，北证 50 指数 上涨 2.79%。 截至 2025 年 12 月 12 日，宽基指数来看，上证指数和上证 50 指数处于估 ...

晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【宏观】财政发力，社融回稳——2025 年 11 月金融数据点评 得益于财政加力，11 月金融数据有所回稳，具体表现为地方债供给提速减少了对社 融增速的拖累，以及财政支出加快转化为一般存款从而支撑货币供应表现。但信贷结 构短期化更多反映了银行调节指标的需求，以及内生性增长动能不足的顽疾。此次金 融数据的亮点则在于，流动性环境友好，企业债融资大幅增长对社融构成积极贡献。 风险提示：财政刺激政策落地不及预期；流动性投放有缺口导致资金面出现波动。 【策略】新一轮政策部署护航，A 股跨年行情可期——策略周专题（2025 年 12 月第 2 期） 2025 年 12 月 15 日 | | 商品市场 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | SHFESHFE 黄金 | 970.66 | 1.33 | | SHFESHFE 燃油 | 2368 | -0.59 | | SHFESHFE 铜 | 94080 | 2.03 | | SHFESHFE 锌 | 23605 | 2.65 | | SHFESHFE 铝 | 22170 | 0.91 | | ...

Investment Ratings - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both the power equipment and environmental protection sectors [1]. Core Views - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the application of green electricity and promotes the development of hydrogen, ammonia, methanol, and energy storage, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in green energy sectors in 2026 [3]. - Domestic energy storage saw significant growth in November, with newly installed capacity reaching 4.51GW/13.03GWh, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 57.14% in power and 74.66% in capacity [3][7]. - The report highlights the importance of hydrogen and green fuels as new growth points, with expectations for increased investment in these areas due to supportive policies and market conditions [4]. Summary by Sections Energy Storage - Domestic energy storage is experiencing a boom, with November's new installations showing a 45.95% year-on-year increase in power and a 49.6% increase in capacity [3][7]. - The report anticipates that independent energy storage tenders will maintain a good level in 2026, supported by a complete revenue model through energy markets and auxiliary services [3]. Hydrogen and Green Fuels - The report suggests that hydrogen and methanol will play a crucial role in the non-electric applications of green electricity, with significant investment expected in these areas [4]. - The development of zero-carbon parks and factories is also highlighted as a key initiative for 2026 [3]. Wind Power - The report notes that in 2024, onshore wind power installations are expected to reach 75.8GW, a year-on-year increase of 9.68%, while offshore wind installations are projected to be 4.0GW, a decrease of 40.85% [8]. - The bidding capacity for wind power equipment in 2024 is expected to be 164.1GW, a 90% increase year-on-year [13]. Lithium Battery - The report indicates that the demand for lithium batteries remains strong, with December's retail sales of new energy vehicles expected to show a bright performance despite a year-on-year decline of 17% [19]. - The supply chain for lithium batteries is expected to stabilize, with ongoing negotiations for long-term contracts and price adjustments [22][23].

2025 年 12 月 14 日 行业研究 中国石化集团： 深化改革积极转型，谱写中国式现代化石化新篇章 ——石油化工行业周报第 432 期（20251208—20251214） 要点 世界级石化龙头砥砺奋进，股份公司上市 25 周年再启航。中国石油化工集团 有限公司是中国最大的成品油和石化产品供应商，世界第一大炼油公司、第二 大化工公司，加油站总数位居世界第二。公司主要包括四大业务板块，分别为 油气和新能源板块、炼油和销售板块、化工和新材料板块以及资本和金融板块。 旗下直接拥有上市公司包括中国石化股份有限公司、中石化炼化工程、石化油 服和石化机械，其中中国石化股份有限公司现有全资子公司、控股和参股子公 司、分公司等共 100 余家，包括油气勘探开发、炼油、化工、产品销售以及 科研、外贸等企业和单位。2024 年以来，全球经济复苏承压，地缘政治风险 上升，国际油价震荡下行，市场供需矛盾突出，公司克服生产经营不利局面， 实现了各业务的高质量发展。2024 年，中国石化集团实现营业总收入 31388 亿元，同比-3.3%，实现归母净利润 578 亿元，同比-13.0%。2025 年是中国 石油化工股份有限公司 H ...

2025 年 12 月 14 日 要点 军工新材料：电解钴价格下跌。（1）本周电解钴价格 40.60 万元/吨，环比 -0.5%。本周电解钴和钴粉价格比值 0.78 ，环比-1.0%；电解钴和硫酸钴价格 比值为 4.32 ，环比-2.8%。（2）碳纤维本周价格 83.8 元/千克，环比+0%， 毛利-9.61 元/千克。 新能源车新材料：硫酸钴价格上涨。（1）本周电碳、工碳和电池级氢氧化锂 价格分别为 9.21 、8.93 和 8.22 万元/吨，环比+0%、+0%和-0.2%。电碳与 工碳价差为 2024 年 11 月以来较低，或代表锂电景气度相较工业领域有所减 弱。（2）本周硫酸钴价格 9.02 万元/吨，环比+1.86%。（3）本周磷酸铁 锂、523 型正极材料价格分别为 3.91 、15.86 万元/吨，环比+0%、+1.4%。 （4）本周氧化镨钕价格 578.74 元/公斤，环比-0.7%。 光伏新材料：EVA 价格下跌。（1）本周光伏级多晶硅价格 6.50 美元/千克， 环比 +0%。（2）本周 EVA 价格 9,800 元/吨，环比-1.0%，处于 2013 年来较 低位置。（3）本周 3.2m ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector, with a focus on specific companies such as Innovent Biologics, Efang Biologics, and Mindray Medical [4][27]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the investment opportunities in the "One Old, One Young" sectors, particularly in reproductive assistance, pediatric drugs and vaccines, maternal and infant health monitoring, and aging-related consumer healthcare [2][24]. - It highlights the importance of clinical value in the pharmaceutical sector, suggesting that future investments should focus on innovative drug chains and high-end medical devices [3][25]. - The report notes that the domestic pharmaceutical sector is experiencing a valuation recovery, driven by supportive policies and increasing global competitiveness [26]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The A-share pharmaceutical index fell by 1.04%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.96 percentage points and the ChiNext index by 2.52 percentage points, ranking 17th among 31 sub-industries [1][15]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Medical Health Index decreased by 2.26%, lagging behind the Hang Seng Index by 0.97 percentage points [1][15]. R&D Progress - Recent developments include IND applications from Haisimengnuo and clinical trial advancements for various drugs from companies like Hengrui Medicine and Anke Biotechnology [29][30]. Key Companies and Valuation - The report provides a detailed earnings forecast and valuation table for key companies, indicating a positive outlook for companies like WuXi AppTec and Mindray Medical, with projected PE ratios decreasing over the next few years [4][27]. Policy and Industry Resonance - The report discusses the eight key tasks for medical insurance in 2026, focusing on improving coverage for flexible employment and enhancing maternal healthcare services, which are expected to boost the birth rate and the rehabilitation medical device industry [2][20][24]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests a three-stage investment strategy based on clinical value, recommending investments in innovative drugs and high-value medical devices, with a focus on companies that are expanding internationally [3][25][26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the public utility sector [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of green electricity consumption and solid waste management in the context of the "dual carbon" goals set for 2026, suggesting a focus on the green electricity sector for potential valuation recovery [4][8] - The report highlights the ongoing decline in electricity prices and the need for adjustments in the installation rhythm of new green electricity projects based on regional supply and demand [4][3] - The report suggests that the electricity market reform is progressing, with a focus on expanding the electricity spot market and auxiliary services, while also noting the transformation of thermal power's functional positioning [4] Summary by Sections Market Review - The SW public utility sector experienced a slight decline of 0.09% this week, ranking 11th among 31 SW sectors, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.34% [23] - Among sub-sectors, thermal power increased by 0.22%, while hydropower decreased by 0.26% [23] - The top five performing stocks in the public utility sector this week were: Jiaze New Energy (+9.71%), Yinxing Energy (+8.58%), Zhongtai Co. (+7.79%), Xichang Power (+5.38%), and Chenzhou International (+4.14%) [29] Price Updates - The report notes a significant drop in thermal coal prices, with Qinhuangdao port's 5500 kcal thermal coal price decreasing by 39 CNY/ton this week [2][9] - The average settlement price for electricity in Guangdong was reported at 292.88 CNY/MWh, down from 354.64 CNY/MWh the previous week [10] Key Events - Various provinces have begun releasing results for the "136" document's incremental project bidding, with significant volumes of green electricity being auctioned at varying prices [3][7] - The Central Economic Work Conference reiterated the commitment to the "dual carbon" goals, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive green transition and the expansion of green electricity applications [8]

2025 年 12 月 14 日 行业研究 美国 COMEX 交易所电解铜库存续创历史新高 ——铜行业周报（20251208-20251212） 要点 本周小结：宏观情绪改善，看好铜价继续上行。截至 2025 年 12 月 12 日，SHFE 铜收盘价 94080 元/吨，环比 12 月 5 日+1.40%；LME 铜收盘价 11553 美元/ 吨，环比 12 月 5 日-0.96%。（1）宏观：美联储 12 月如期降息；国内中央经济 工作会议强调明年政策"坚持稳中求进、提质增效"，提出优化"两新"（大规 模设备更新和消费品以旧换新）政策，整体利好铜消费。（2）供需：线缆企业 开工率在铜价大涨后本周略有回落，但 Q4 电网旺季效应仍存；2025Q4 空调排 产同比下降，但环比改善；供需仍将维持偏紧格局，继续看好铜价上行。 库存：国内铜社库环比+2.6%，LME 铜库存环比+0.8%。（1）港口铜精矿库存： 截至 2025 年 12 月 12 日，国内主流港口铜精矿库存 76.4 万吨，环比上周+1.8%。 （2）全球电解铜库存：截至 2025 年 12 月 8 日，全球三大交易所库存合计 69.0 万吨，环比 ...