Inflation Data Summary - In August, the U.S. CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year, up from 2.7% in the previous month, aligning with market expectations[2] - The seasonally adjusted CPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month, compared to 0.2% previously, slightly exceeding the market forecast of 0.3%[2] - Core CPI remained stable at 3.1% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, consistent with the previous month[2] Inflation Drivers - The increase in CPI was primarily driven by rising prices in food, energy, and housing[3] - Food prices rose by 0.5% month-on-month, with beef prices significantly increasing by 2.7%[4] - Energy prices saw a month-on-month increase of 0.7%, recovering from a decline of 1.1% in the previous month[4] Market Expectations and Fed Policy - The current inflation trend suggests a controlled environment for further interest rate cuts, with a 25 basis point cut expected in September[3] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point cut in October have risen to 82.1%, up from 73.9% the previous day[7] - The probability of another 25 basis point cut in December is at 75.4%, increasing from 68.1%[7]

2025 年 9 月 12 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【策略】牛市中，板块轮动有何规律？——解密牛市系列之四 历史来看，流动性驱动行情下，前期关注金融、中期关注 TMT、后期关注金融；基 本面驱动行情下，前期关注消费、中期关注制造、后期关注地产。本轮牛市目前或以 流动性驱动为主，可能正处于中期，TMT 或成为牛市中期主线，当前可重点关注， 若行情逐渐过渡至后期，可关注金融板块。未来牛市若转向基本面驱动，先进制造值 得重点关注，若行情演绎至后期，可关注地产板块。 行业研究 【电子】25Q2 电子行业 AI、PCB、英伟达供应链等领域净利润同比增速较快——电 子行业 2025 年二季报总结(买入) 2025 年 Q2 全行业（A 股）652 家公司归母净利润为 1,368.2 亿元，同比+35%，环 比+34%。其中，25Q2 归母净利润同比增速排名前 3 的子行业为 AI 供应链（25Q2 归母净利润为 174.7 亿元，同比+87%，下同）、PCB（70.0 亿元，+68%）、英伟 达供应链（128.6 亿元，+67%）。 【基化】AI 拉动半导体材料需求增长，25H1 行业上市公司业绩向 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue growth and significant improvement in profitability in the first half of 2025, with a revenue of 728 million yuan, up 13.88% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 58 million yuan, up 25.54% year-on-year [2] - The company benefits from an integrated industrial chain advantage, being one of the few companies that produce both film and capacitor products, which allows it to meet diverse customer needs [3] - The market for ultra-thin film materials in the renewable energy sector is expected to grow, driven by technological advancements and national policies, which will also boost the demand for capacitor films [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 25H1, the company achieved a revenue of 728 million yuan, with a gross margin of 26.16%, an increase of 1.63 percentage points year-on-year [2] - In 25Q2, the revenue was 363 million yuan, with a net profit of 31 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 39.60% [2] - The electronic-grade film materials segment generated 294 million yuan in revenue, up 15.47% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 30.17% [2] Market Outlook - The demand for film capacitors is expected to grow, which will drive the continuous growth of the capacitor film market [3] - The report highlights the potential for new market increments in the capacitor film industry due to the maturation of composite current collector application technologies [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 121 million yuan and 146 million yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 169 million yuan [4] - The company is positioned as a leading domestic manufacturer of film capacitors and polypropylene film materials, with a sustained growth outlook in the renewable energy sector [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has achieved revenue growth across its three main businesses, with a significant increase in special fabric production capacity [1] - In H1 2025, the company reported total revenue of 13.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1 billion yuan, up 115% [5] - The wind turbine blade business saw revenue of 5.2 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 84%, with sales volume reaching 15 GW, up 103% [6] - The fiberglass business reported a revenue of 4.35 billion yuan, a 13% increase, with a net profit of 560 million yuan, up 262% [7] - The lithium membrane business achieved revenue of 930 million yuan, a 22% increase, with sales volume growing by 60% [9] Summary by Sections Wind Power Blade Business - Revenue reached 5.2 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a net profit of 370 million yuan, reflecting a 258% increase year-on-year [6] - The company is expanding its production capacity both domestically and internationally, with new projects in Xinjiang, Shantou, and Brazil [6] Fiberglass Business - The company sold 673,000 tons of fiberglass products, generating 4.35 billion yuan in revenue, with a gross margin of 26% [7] - The company is advancing in the special fabric sector, with significant R&D and production capabilities, including low-expansion and ultra-low-loss fabrics [7][8] Lithium Membrane Business - Revenue from the lithium battery separator business was 930 million yuan, with a sales volume of 1.3 billion square meters [9] - The company has established seven production bases across China and is progressing with an overseas base in Hungary [9] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report projects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 2.05 billion yuan, 2.3 billion yuan, and 2.58 billion yuan respectively, with significant growth expected in the special fabric sector [10] - The company is expected to maintain a strong market position with new projects enhancing its revenue and profit streams [10]

Investment Rating - The electronic industry is rated as "Buy" [5] Core Insights - In Q2 2025, the electronic industry saw a significant increase in net profit, with a total of 652 companies reporting a net profit of 136.82 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 35% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 34% [11][12] - The top three sub-industries in terms of year-on-year net profit growth are AI supply chain (174.7 billion yuan, +87%), PCB (70.0 billion yuan, +68%), and Nvidia supply chain (128.6 billion yuan, +67%) [11][12] - The semiconductor-MEMS, PCB materials, digital GPU and CPU, consumer electronics metal and structural parts, and semiconductor-analog sub-industries also experienced rapid growth in net profit [13] Summary by Sections Sub-industry Performance - The top five sub-industries by net profit growth in Q2 2025 are: 1. Semiconductor-MEMS: 1.33 million yuan, +2784% 2. PCB materials: 0.65 million yuan, +1259% 3. Digital GPU and CPU: 12.02 million yuan, +736% 4. Consumer electronics metal and structural parts: 2.79 million yuan, +138% 5. Semiconductor-analog: 3.45 million yuan, +117% [13][14] Major Companies in the Industry - The top five companies in the electronic industry by net profit in Q2 2025 are: 1. Industrial Fulian: 68.83 billion yuan, +51% 2. SMIC: 9.44 billion yuan, -17% 3. Cambricon: 6.83 billion yuan, turning profitable 4. Haiguang Information: 6.96 billion yuan, +23% 5. Luxshare Precision: 36.01 billion yuan, +23% [17][18] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the following areas for investment: 1. Optical modules/DCI/CPO: Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Guangku Technology 2. Servers: Industrial Fulian 3. PCB/CCL: Shengyi Technology, Shenzhen South Circuit, Pengding Holdings 4. Upstream PCB: Xinqi Microelectronics 5. Power supplies: Magmi, Oulu Tong 6. Domestic computing power: Cambricon, Haiguang Information, Lanke Technology 7. Robotics: Lingyi Intelligent Manufacturing, Zhenyu Technology 8. Semiconductors: AISC customization: Xinyuan Technology, Aojie Technology; Silicon carbide: Sanan Optoelectronics; Analog: Chengdu Huami; Components: Fuchuang Precision; FAB: Huahong Semiconductor/Hua Hong Company (A/H), SMIC (A/H); Materials: Dinglong Co., Ltd., Tongcheng New Materials; Storage: Baiwei Storage, Zhaoyi Innovation, Beijing Junzheng [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Apple Inc. (AAPL.O) with a current price of $234.35 [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the launch of the thinnest iPhone to date, the iPhone Air, and emphasizes the importance of new product sales and AI-driven internal growth as key areas for future tracking [1][10]. - The report notes that external risks that previously suppressed Apple's stock price have gradually diminished, leading to a more optimistic outlook for the company's stock [10]. Summary by Sections New Product Launch - Apple held its fall event on September 10, 2025, unveiling four new iPhone models (iPhone 17 series and iPhone Air), a new AirPods Pro 3, and three new Apple Watch models [4][5]. - The iPhone Air is positioned as the thinnest iPhone ever at 5.6mm, featuring significant upgrades in hardware and AI integration [6][7]. Financial Performance - The report projects revenue growth for Apple, with estimated revenues of $416.06 billion for FY2025, reflecting a 6.4% increase from the previous year [13]. - GAAP net profit is expected to reach $110.51 billion in FY2025, representing a 17.9% growth [13]. AI Strategy - The integration of AI features into products is highlighted, with expectations for further development of Apple Intelligence, which is anticipated to enhance user experience and ecosystem stickiness [10][12]. - Potential AI collaborations and acquisitions, such as discussions around acquiring Perplexity AI and partnerships with Google for AI integration, are noted as catalysts for growth [11]. Pricing and Market Strategy - The pricing strategy for new iPhone models includes an increase in storage capacity options, with the iPhone 17 Pro starting at $1,099 for 256GB, up from the previous model's 128GB starting point [7][14]. - The report suggests that the new pricing structure and product differentiation could drive higher average selling prices (ASP) and stimulate upgrade demand among existing users [10][12]. Financial Projections - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, projecting a gradual increase in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with a focus on hardware and services as key revenue drivers [16][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Viewpoints - The company has achieved significant revenue growth, with a 20.9% year-on-year increase in revenue to RMB 2.63 billion for the first half of 2025, and a 55.9% increase in net profit to RMB 170 million [1] - The company is expanding its new business model, having secured a 25-year development right for the Dhufriyah oil field in Iraq, marking a new era in oil and gas field development [2] - The company has seen robust growth across various business segments, with notable increases in oilfield technology services and drilling services, with revenue growth rates of 22.9% and 74.2% respectively [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported a comprehensive gross margin of 28.7%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin increased by 1.2 percentage points to 6.3% [1] - The company's revenue from the Chinese market, Iraqi market, and other overseas markets reached RMB 9.5 billion, RMB 14.5 billion, and RMB 2.3 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 43.0%, 16.6%, and a decline of 13.9% [3] Business Segments - The company’s revenue from oilfield technology services, oilfield management services, testing services, and drilling services for the first half of 2025 was RMB 12.1 billion, RMB 10.0 billion, RMB 2.0 billion, and RMB 2.2 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 22.9%, 11.2%, 21.7%, and 74.2% [2] - The company has made significant progress in the development of natural gas utilization, successfully launching Malaysia's first onshore natural gas commercialization project [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts the company's net profit for 2025 to be RMB 366.4 million, with corresponding EPS of RMB 0.12, and projects continued growth in subsequent years [5] - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from RMB 4.43 billion in 2023 to RMB 6.92 billion in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 11.4% [5]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - In August 2025, CPI remained flat at 0% month-on-month, while PPI ended a consecutive eight-month decline, indicating a potential turning point for PPI [1] - Core CPI growth has rebounded for four consecutive months due to policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and regulating low-price competition, although overall CPI year-on-year growth fell to -0.4% due to food prices [2] - The PPI is expected to see a slow recovery due to a poor demand environment and market-oriented capacity governance, remaining in negative growth territory for the year [2] Group 2: Industry Research - The antimony supply is tightening as Polar Gold's antimony production is projected to drop to zero in the first half of 2025, leading to potential price increases in the domestic market [3] - Antimony prices have fluctuated this year, influenced by export policies and demand changes, with expectations of price increases if export restrictions ease [3] Group 3: Company Research - Huaxin Cement (600801.SH) reported significant growth in net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by accelerated international expansion and increased overseas revenue and cement sales [4] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.9 billion, 3.3 billion, and 3.5 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, maintaining a "buy" rating [4] - Megachip Color (603062.SH) also experienced rapid revenue and profit growth in the first half of 2025, with new business developments in wind power and marine coatings contributing to sales [5] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 270 million, 300 million, and 330 million yuan from 2025 to 2027, maintaining an "increase" rating [5]

CPI Insights - In August 2025, the CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, down from 0% in the previous month, and below the market expectation of -0.2%[2] - The core CPI rose by 0.9% year-on-year, slightly up from 0.8% in the previous month, indicating a continuous recovery over four months[2] - Food prices significantly impacted the CPI, with a year-on-year decline of 4.3% in August, compared to -1.6% in July[4] PPI Insights - The PPI year-on-year decline narrowed to 2.9% in August from 3.6% in July, aligning with market expectations[2] - The PPI month-on-month change was stable at 0%, improving from a decline of 0.2% in the previous month[2] - The "anti-involution" policy has led to a stabilization in prices for coal, steel, and new energy vehicles, contributing to the PPI's upward trend[8] Future Outlook - The CPI is expected to return to positive growth in Q4 2025 as high base effects diminish and pig production capacity management continues[3] - The PPI is anticipated to gradually recover, although the process may be slow due to a weaker demand environment compared to 2015-2016[11] - The overall supply-demand balance in industries is expected to improve, indicating that the worst phase for PPI has likely passed[11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In August 2025, both CPI and PPI were flat month - on - month. CPI decreased year - on - year, while core CPI increased year - on - year. PPI's year - on - year decline narrowed, and its month - on - month decline stopped [1][2]. - Regarding interest - rate bonds, since August 2025, the yield of treasury bonds has shown a significant divergence, with the short - end relatively stable and the long - end rising. Given the current loose liquidity, one should be optimistic about pure bonds, and the fluctuation center of the 10Y treasury bond yield is 1.7% [3][26]. - For convertible bonds, from August 25th to the present, convertible bonds have underperformed underlying stocks and are in a stage of high - level valuation compression. In the long run, convertible bonds are still relatively high - quality assets, and opportunities for allocation emerge after short - term declines [3][31]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Event - On September 10, 2025, the National Bureau of Statistics released the CPI and PPI data for August 2025. In August, CPI decreased by 0.4% year - on - year (previous value: 0%), core CPI increased by 0.9% year - on - year (previous value: 0.8%); PPI decreased by 2.9% year - on - year (previous value: - 3.6%) [1][6]. 3.2 Comment 3.2.1 CPI - In August 2025, CPI's year - on - year growth rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points compared to July, and the month - on - month growth rate was 0%. Both the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates declined compared to the previous month. This month's CPI was within the seasonal fluctuation range [2][7]. - Structurally, food prices' year - on - year decline continued to widen (year - on - year: - 4.3%, previous value: - 1.6%), energy prices continued to fall (transport fuel: year - on - year - 7.1%, month - on - month - 0.9%), service prices' year - on - year growth rate increased (up 0.6% in August, 0.1 percentage points higher than July), and the year - on - year increase of core CPI continued to expand for the fourth consecutive month (up 0.9% in August, previous value: 0.8%) [2][8][11]. 3.2.2 PPI - In August, PPI's year - on - year growth rate was - 2.9% (July: - 3.6%), with the decline narrowing; the month - on - month growth rate was 0% (July: - 0.2%), ending eight consecutive months of negative growth [2][16]. - Structurally, the year - on - year growth rate of production materials prices was - 3.2% (July: - 4.3%), with the decline narrowing; the year - on - year growth rate of living materials prices was - 1.7% (July: - 1.6%), with a slight expansion in the decline. Among production materials, the year - on - year declines of mining, raw materials, and processing industries all narrowed, and the month - on - month growth rate of mining industry prices increased significantly [20]. - Looking forward, with the continuous implementation of the "anti - involution" policy, the current year - on - year PPI growth rate may be at the bottom and on the rise, but there is obvious structural differentiation, and the price increase of upstream mining has not been significantly transmitted to mid - and downstream industrial products [2][20]. 3.3 Bond Market Views 3.3.1 Interest - rate Bonds - Since August 2025, the yield of treasury bonds has shown a significant divergence. The short - end has fluctuated little (the average yield of 1Y treasury bonds in July was 1.36%, and from August 1st to September 9th, it was 1.37%), while the long - end has increased significantly (the average yields of 10Y and 30Y treasury bonds from August 1st to September 9th increased by 9bp and 15bp respectively compared to July). Currently, the sentiment in the interest - rate bond market is still weak. Looking ahead, due to the loose liquidity, one should be optimistic about pure bonds, and the fluctuation center of the 10Y treasury bond yield is 1.7% [26]. 3.3.2 Convertible Bonds - As of September 9, 2025, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by 15.2%, slightly lower than the equity market. Currently, convertible bonds' valuations are close to or exceed historical highs, so adjustments are inevitable. From August 25th to the present, convertible bonds have underperformed underlying stocks and are in a stage of high - level valuation compression. In the long run, given the expectation of a slow - bull equity market and the pattern where the demand in the convertible bond market exceeds supply, convertible bonds are still relatively high - quality assets, and opportunities for allocation emerge after short - term declines [31].