Group 1 - The current Hong Kong stock market is in a phase of oscillation and correction, with the Hang Seng Technology Index dropping from a peak of around 6000 points in mid-January to 5346.2 points by February 6, marking a weekly decline of 6.51%, the largest in recent weeks [1] - The adjustment within the sector shows significant differentiation, with semiconductor and internet leaders experiencing larger declines, while new energy vehicles and home appliances showed relative resilience, indicating that funds are concentrating on quality core assets rather than exiting the market entirely [1][2] - The report emphasizes that the current market conditions represent a "golden layout window" for investors, characterized by oversold valuations, counter-cyclical capital inflows, and improving fundamentals [1][10] Group 2 - Southbound capital has shown a "buy the dip" behavior, with a net inflow of 560.7 billion HKD in the week of February 6, the highest weekly net inflow in three months, indicating strong confidence from domestic investors in the Hong Kong technology sector [2] - The concentration of capital flows has increased, with technology ETFs becoming key tools for domestic investors, reflecting a shift from traditional high-dividend sectors to technology growth sectors [2][3] - The report notes that the Hang Seng Technology Index's PE (TTM) is at 22.1 times, significantly below its historical average of 32.1 times and the global comparable technology indices, highlighting a valuation discount of over 35% [4] Group 3 - The report identifies four solid support dimensions for the Hang Seng Technology Index: technical, valuation, capital, and fundamental aspects, which collectively create a "margin of safety" for the sector [3] - The technical indicators show that the index is severely oversold, with a strong support level around 5400 points, which has not been effectively breached despite recent declines [3][4] - The fundamental outlook is bolstered by the sector's deep integration with the AI wave, with over 70% of the index's components related to AI, indicating strong growth potential as the industry transitions from R&D to commercialization [6][7] Group 4 - The report attributes the recent decline in the Hang Seng Technology Index to short-term emotional disturbances rather than a reversal of fundamental trends, driven by external tightening expectations, internal profit-taking, and unfounded rumors [7][8] - It emphasizes that the current market downturn is a valuable opportunity for investors to acquire quality assets, as the emotional "panic low" often represents a "golden buying point" [9][10] - The report suggests a strategy of "buying in batches and holding long-term," focusing on core stocks that are rapidly commercializing AI applications and have stable cash flows [9][10]

2026 年 2 月 10 日 总量研究 "安全"的溢价：地缘政治如何重塑全球利率曲线？ 核心观点：地缘政治正通过"安全"溢价深刻重塑全球利率曲线，超长端利率的 上行本质是财政扩张服务于国家安全的结构性变化，而非简单的周期性波动。高 通胀下推行的财政扩张，大幅削弱了传统意义上债券的避险属性。在美国中期选 举之前，特朗普带来的宏观叙事仍将主导资产价格波动，人民币计价资产已经显 现出"避风港"属性。 主要经济体超长端利率共振上行。全球超长端利率的同步攀升，并非简单的经济 周期驱动，而是地缘政治裂变下的结构性转向。特朗普就职后的"百日新政"引 发了市场对财政赤字无序扩张与关税冲突的担忧，驱动市场为远期通胀与主权信 用风险重定价。 期限溢价为"安全"进行定价。期限溢价正经历一场范式革命：国家安全、供应 链重塑与科技竞争等无限需求，取代了主权信用成为超长债定价的新锚点。美债 "武器化"事件暴露了储备资产"安全化"的浪潮，而竞争性财政扩张、再工业 化与资源囤积三大结构性因素，彻底颠覆了供需自发调节机制。 关注叙事被颠覆的可能。当前利率曲线的陡峭化，起始于 2025 年 1 月 20 日特 朗普就职这一政治事项，但政治动能 ...

2026 年 2 月 10 日 行业研究 【环保】特斯拉加码光伏扩产，中国光伏设备与辅材龙头企业有望受益——碳中和领 域动态追踪（一百七十二）(买入) 特斯拉计划在 2028 年底前在美国本土实现从原材料端起的 100GW 一体化光伏制造。 美国光伏产能的扩张离不开中国的设备和技术，光伏组件的生产制造亦离不开中国的 辅材供应链。建议关注双良节能、晶盛机电、连城数控、拉普拉斯、捷佳伟创、奥特 维、ST 京机、福斯特、聚和材料、帝科股份、永臻股份等。 【房地产】【光大地产】核心城市楼市成交高频跟踪 20260209(增持) 截至 2026 年 2 月 8 日(由于基数变动，年初同比数据波动性较大为正常情况)， 20 城新房：累计成交 5.6 万套(-13.7%)；北京 3013 套(+2%)、上海 8996 套(+16%)、深 圳 1858 套(-55%)；10 城二手房：累计成交 10.6 万套(+33.2%)；北京 1.8 万套(+37%)、 上海 2.9 万套(+45%)、深圳 6532 套(+27%)。 公司研究 【社服】川渝风味面馆龙头，加速全国布局——遇见小面（2408.HK）投资价值分析 报告(增持 ...

2026 年 2 月 9 日 有色金属 铼粉价格连续 2 个月上涨 ——金属新材料高频数据周报（20260202-20260208） 要点 军工新材料：电解钴价格下跌。（1）本周电解钴价格 42.00 万元/吨，环比 -5.2%。本周电解钴和钴粉价格比值 0.73 ，环比-5.2%；电解钴和硫酸钴价格 比值为 4.28 ，环比-5.2%。（2）碳纤维本周价格 83.8 元/千克，环比+0%。 毛利-9.19 元/千克。 新能源车新材料：氢氧化锂价格下跌。（1）本周碳酸锂和氢氧化锂价格分别 为 13.44 、13.25 万元/吨，环比-16.2%、-16.1%。（2）本周硫酸钴价格 9.53 万元/吨，环比+0%。（3）本周磷酸铁锂、523 型正极材料价格分别为 5.24 、18.00 万元/吨，环比+0%、-3.5%。（4）本周氧化镨钕价格 757.72 元/公斤，环比+1.2%。 光伏新材料：多晶硅价格下跌。（1）本周光伏级多晶硅价格 6.19 美元/千 克，环比 -6.5%。（2）本周 EVA 价格 9,650 元/吨，环比+0%，处于 2013 年 来较低位置。（3）本周 3.2mm 光伏玻璃镀膜价格 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the electric power equipment and new energy sector, indicating an expected investment return exceeding 15% over the next 6-12 months compared to the market benchmark index [5]. Core Insights - Tesla is expanding its solar manufacturing capacity in North America, with plans to reach 100GW integrated solar manufacturing by the end of 2028, which is expected to benefit leading Chinese solar equipment and material companies [1][4]. - The Chinese solar supply chain plays a crucial role in the expansion of solar capacity in the U.S., with significant increases in global market share for silicon materials, wafers, cells, and modules projected from 2021 to 2025 [2]. - The cost and technical importance of auxiliary materials in solar module production are rising, with a forecasted growth in U.S. solar power generation driven by policy and demand, benefiting Chinese auxiliary material suppliers [3]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Tesla's Expansion - Tesla is assessing new solar cell manufacturing projects across the U.S., starting with a 10GW expansion at its Buffalo factory [1]. Section 2: Chinese Supply Chain Impact - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's solar industry chain is expected to see substantial capacity expansion, with global market shares for key components increasing significantly by 2025 [2]. Section 3: Auxiliary Materials in Solar Production - The cost share of auxiliary materials in solar modules is increasing, with specific components like paste, aluminum frames, and glass becoming critical to overall module costs [3]. Section 4: Investment Recommendations - Companies such as Duliang Energy, Jingsheng Mechanical, and others are recommended for investment due to their potential benefits from Tesla's expansion [4]. - Auxiliary material companies like Foster and Juhe Materials are also highlighted as key beneficiaries of the growing U.S. solar demand [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5]. Core Insights - The company, "Yujian Xiaomian," is the leading brand in the Sichuan-Chongqing flavor noodle restaurant sector in China, employing a dual model of direct operation and franchising. It was founded in 2014 and is projected to become the largest Sichuan-Chongqing flavor noodle restaurant by 2024, with plans for an IPO in 2025 [1][21]. - The company has experienced continuous revenue growth and has turned profitable through price reductions and effective raw material cost control, despite facing challenges such as high debt and rental pressures from store expansions [1][3]. - The Sichuan-Chongqing flavor noodle market is witnessing a resurgence in expansion following industry consolidation, with a notable increase in popularity and a clear trend towards chain operations, particularly in lower-tier markets [1][2]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Yujian Xiaomian is recognized as the top Sichuan-Chongqing flavor noodle restaurant in China, utilizing a combination of direct operation and franchising [1]. - The company has expanded its menu to include a variety of noodle dishes, rice, snacks, and beverages, catering to a wide demographic and operating in various locations [21]. 2. Market Dynamics - The Chinese noodle restaurant industry is steadily growing, with Sichuan-Chongqing flavors gaining popularity. The market is highly fragmented, with the top five companies holding only 2.9% market share [1][2]. - The company is positioned as the fourth largest in the Chinese noodle restaurant sector and the fastest-growing in the Sichuan-Chongqing category [1]. 3. Growth Strategy - The company is focusing on market penetration in lower-tier cities, with the number of stores in these areas increasing from 30 to 76 between 2022 and 2025 [3]. - The franchise model is being implemented with a strategy of "slow expansion, strong control," ensuring quality through a unified supply chain [3]. 4. Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow significantly, with forecasts of 1.15 billion CNY in 2024 and 1.66 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting growth rates of 44.2% and 43.8% respectively [4]. - The company anticipates net profits of 105 million CNY in 2025, with an EPS of 0.15 CNY, and a corresponding P/E ratio of 32X [4][13]. 5. Operational Efficiency - The company has implemented a digital system to enhance operational efficiency across all business segments, leveraging real-time data to improve performance [2]. - Despite rapid expansion, the company faces challenges in maintaining store efficiency, with average daily sales per store showing a declining trend [41]. 6. Competitive Advantages - Yujian Xiaomian's competitive edge lies in its diversified offerings, standardized management practices, and strong capital backing from notable investors [2][3]. - The company has successfully reduced raw material costs from 38.3% in 2022 to 31.4% in 2025, showcasing effective cost management strategies [49].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sector [5] Core Insights - The report highlights a general decline in non-ferrous metal prices, while gold, tungsten, molybdenum, and vanadium prices have increased on a month-on-month basis [1] - The liquidity environment for small and medium enterprises has improved, with the BCI index rising by 6.62% to 50.27 in January 2026 [11] - The construction and real estate sectors are experiencing low inventory levels for hot-rolled steel, indicating potential supply constraints [21] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquidity - The BCI index for small and medium enterprises increased to 50.27, reflecting a positive shift in financing conditions [11] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -4.7 percentage points in December 2025, indicating a contraction in liquidity [11] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Weekly inventory levels for hot-rolled steel are at a five-year low, with rebar prices down by 0.93% [21] - The national average capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 86%, unchanged from the previous week [9] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate for semi-steel tires is at a five-year high, while the prices for cold-rolled, copper, and aluminum have decreased [2] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 23,110 CNY/ton, down 6.21% from the previous week [2] Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.33%, with the engineering machinery sector showing the best performance at +4.35% [4] - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the broader market is currently at 0.50, indicating potential undervaluation [4] Real Estate Completion Chain - The prices of titanium dioxide and glass remain low, with the glass operating rate at 73.89% [1][76] - The cumulative year-on-year change in completed residential area was -18.10% for 2025 [76]

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors related to quantitative analysis[1][2][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the pharmaceutical sector, including Innovent Biologics, Efang Biologics, Tianshili, WuXi AppTec, and Mindray Medical [4][28]. Core Insights - The policy-driven upgrade of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) industry is expected to enhance industry concentration in the medium to long term, benefiting companies with strong quality control and innovative capabilities [2][24]. - The implementation plan for high-quality development of the TCM industry aims to establish a collaborative development system by 2030, focusing on raw material supply, innovation, production quality control, and internationalization [2][23]. - The investment strategy emphasizes the importance of clinical value in the pharmaceutical sector, recommending a focus on innovative drugs and high-end medical devices [3][26]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The A-share pharmaceutical index rose by 0.14%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.47 percentage points [1][16]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Medical Health Index fell by 1.41%, but still outperformed the Hang Seng Index by 1.65 percentage points [1][16]. Policy Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments issued a plan to enhance the TCM industry, which includes fostering leading enterprises and establishing high-standard raw material production bases [2][24]. - The plan emphasizes digitalization and sustainability, aiming to raise compliance standards and accelerate the exit of smaller companies from the market [2][25]. Company Updates - Recent clinical progress includes the NDA submission for HRS-9531 by Heng Rui Medicine and the initiation of clinical trials for various drugs by other companies [1][31][32]. - Key companies such as Yunnan Baiyao, Baiyunshan, and Taiji Group are highlighted for their strong positions in raw material supply [2][25]. Financial Forecasts - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for key companies, with Innovent Biologics projected to have an EPS of 0.49 in 2025 and WuXi AppTec expected to reach an EPS of 5.07 in the same year [4][28]. - The pharmaceutical manufacturing industry reported a revenue decline of 1.2% year-on-year for 2025, with total revenue reaching 2,487 billion yuan [51].

2026 年 2 月 9 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【策略】持股过节，关注成长——2026 年 2 月五维行业比较观点 2 月行业配置观点：关注成长板块。结合我们对于 2 月主观因素的判断，五维行业比 较框架视角下，预计市场风格或主要偏向成长，高估值板块相对更值得关注。从打分 的情况来看，电子、电力设备、机械设备、有色金属、通信、计算机等行业得分较高， 未来或值得投资者重点关注。 【策略】坚守布局，持股过节——策略周专题（2026 年 2 月第 1 期） 我们认为，本轮春季行情仍然值得期待，后续市场无论是在政策方面，还是在基本面 层面，未来几个月或仍有利好消息。不过市场表现未必会一帆风顺，春节之前，市场 可能会进入短暂的震荡修正阶段。不过，我们仍然建议投资者持股过节，在春节之后， 市场交易热度会再度回升，结合假期高频数据以及产业热点消息，之后市场可能会迎 来新一轮的上涨行情。 【债券】2019-2025 年"固收+"基金简要观察——"固收+"基金研究系列之一 比较符合"固收+"基金的有一级债基、二级债基、偏债混合型基金和可转债基金。 发行方面，2024 和 2025 年这两年二级债基是发行 ...