2026 年 2 月 25 日 行业研究 SPDR 黄金 ETF 持仓量春节期间总体微幅增加 ——金属周期品高频数据周报（2026.2.9-2026.2.15） 要点 流动性：SPDR 黄金 ETF 持仓量春节期间总体微幅增加。（1）BCI 中小企业 融资环境指数 2026 年 2 月值为 48.66，环比上月-3.20%；（2）M1 和 M2 增速差与上证指数存在较强的正向相关性：M1 和 M2 增速差在 2026 年 1 月 为-4.1 个百分点，环比+0.6 个百分点；（3）本周伦敦金现价格为 5042 美元 /盎司。 基建和地产链条：1-2 月高炉产能利用率或将处于 5 年同期最高水平。（1） 本周价格变动：螺纹+0.00%、水泥价格指数-0.73%、橡胶+3.14%、焦炭 +0.00%、焦煤-0.43%、铁矿-1.04%；（2）本周全国高炉产能利用率、水 泥、沥青开工率环比-0.16pct、+0.00pct、-1.3pct。 地产竣工链条：钛白粉、玻璃价格处于低位水平。本周钛白粉、玻璃的价格 环比分别+0.00%、+1.14%，钛白粉毛利润为-1880 元/吨，平板玻璃本周开 工率 73.89%。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the energy storage sector [6] Core Insights - The investment in energy storage projects is returning to fundamental principles, focusing on capital IRR as a key metric for evaluating project value, with a threshold of 6.5% for good investment value [1][16] - The release of Document No. 114 has accelerated the alignment of profitability models for energy storage plants, shifting from a "strong allocation" to a market-driven economic model [14][15] Summary by Sections 1. Capital IRR Measurement - The capital IRR for energy storage projects is influenced by four core indicators: capacity price level, market arbitrage price difference, EPC costs, and lifespan of the storage station [2][17] - The basic scenario estimates a capital IRR of 5.5% under conservative assumptions, with potential increases based on variations in capacity pricing and market conditions [22][46] 2. Sensitivity Analysis - If the coal power capacity price is set at 330 CNY/kW·year, the capital IRR could reach 15.4% [23] - A 0.01 CNY/kWh increase in market arbitrage price can raise the project IRR by 1.4 percentage points, while a 0.1 increase in daily charge and discharge cycles can increase IRR by 4.4 percentage points [36][27] 3. Provincial Analysis - In 2025, provinces like Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, and Gansu are projected to have capital IRR above 6.5% due to favorable market conditions [4][49] - The report emphasizes the need to monitor monthly changes in electricity market price differences and the pricing of coal power capacity in various provinces [4][49] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the installed capacity of large-scale energy storage in 2026/2027 is a critical variable for lithium battery demand, with ongoing observation needed on capacity pricing, project lists, and market price changes [4][5] - The domestic energy storage industry is entering a healthy development phase, benefiting leading companies such as CATL, Sungrow, EVE Energy, and Haibo [4][5]

2026 年 2 月 24 日 行业研究 春节假期旅游需求旺盛，呈量价齐升、结构优化特点 ——春节假期旅游市场点评 要点 春节假期旅游市场延续高景气度，呈现 "量价齐升、结构优化"特征：2026 年春节假期，全社会跨区域人员流动量有望创新高，民航、铁路、水运等交通方 式客流均实现同比增长，其中水运受游轮观光、海南封关等因素拉动表现尤为亮 眼。酒店市场量价双增，从酒店交易规模来看，飞猪平台春节假期酒店间夜量同 比增长 75%，且高星级酒店人均预订间夜量接近 3 晚，呈现一定的消费升级趋 势，部分热门旅游城市酒店价格涨幅显著；受"先团圆、后度假"的分段式出行 影响，一定程度上推动春运机票价格同比上涨，热门航线供需格局较紧张。 国内游传统与小众目的地热度均上升，AI 推动消费场景串联：1）2026 年春节 国内游市场持续火爆，飞猪平台国内游订单量创历史新高，人均预订金额同比提 升约 10%。2）游客既追求传统旅游目的地的经典体验，亦青睐小众目的地的特 色玩法，国内游呈体验多元化趋势。传统景区方面，祥源文旅旗下核心景区表现 亮眼，春节假期前四天累计接待游客 26.45 万人，同比增长 20%，其中湖南张 家界黄龙洞、 ...

2026 年 2 月 24 日 公司研究 AI 等需求拉动电子特气放量，25 年公司业绩稳健增长 ——中船特气（688146.SH）跟踪点评 增持（维持） 当前价：43.84 元 作者 分析师：赵乃迪 执业证书编号：S0930517050005 010-57378026 zhaond@ebscn.com 分析师：周家诺 执业证书编号：S0930523070007 021-52523675 zhoujianuo@ebscn.com 市场数据 | 总股本(亿股) | 5.29 | | --- | --- | | 总市值(亿元)： | 232.09 | | 一年最低/最高(元)： | 24.14/52.40 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 242.93% | 股价相对走势 -16% 4% 24% 44% 65% 02/25 05/25 08/25 11/25 中船特气 沪深300 收益表现 | % | 1M | 3M | 1Y | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 相对 | -6.50 | 2.68 | 28.90 | | 绝对 | -7.49 | 7.45 | 46.30 | | 资料来源： ...

2026 年 2 月 24 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【宏观】春节假期海外大事一览——假期海外事件点评 春节期间，海外局势出现多番变化，我们重点关注三个事件。1.中东局势高度紧张， 地缘风险溢价推升国际油价大幅上涨。2.美国最高法院裁定特朗普 IEEPA 关税违法。 3.美国通胀数据超预期、经济数据不弱，美联储官员分歧加剧，短期市场降息预期更 纠结。总体来看春节假期期间海外地缘局势动荡，大宗商品价格波动，海外权益市场 多数上涨，但美国较强通胀和经济数据对降息预期带来掣肘。 【宏观】美国通胀放缓，对降息掣肘减弱——2026 年 1 月美国 CPI 数据点评 1 月受食品、汽油价格下跌影响，美国 CPI 同比增速迎来超预期回落。从年初企业重 新定价来看，关税传导仍在持续但强度不大，且二手车价格下跌抵消了这一影响。近 期特朗普计划降低部分关税税率，将进一步缓和通胀压力。我们预计关税对美国通胀 的传导或接近峰值，后续对降息的掣肘预计减弱。 【宏观】金融数据实现高质量开年——2026 年 1 月金融数据点评 开年金融数据表现平稳，重点关注以下：信贷增长的"开门红"效应较弱，财政靠前 发力推动直接融资 ...

2026 年 2 月 24 日 分析师：董文欣 执业证书编号：S0930521090001 010-57378035 dongwx@ebscn.com ——银行&保险业春节后投资展望 银行业 买入（维持） 作者 分析师：王一峰 行业研究 金融股又到"春播"时？ 执业证书编号：S0930519050002 010-57378038 wangyf@ebscn.com 分析师：黄怡婷 执业证书编号：S0930524070003 010-57378023 huangyiting@ebscn.com 分析师：赵晨阳 执业证书编号：S0930524070005 010-57378030 zhaochenyang@ebscn.com 行业与沪深 300 指数对比图 资料来源：Wind 相关研报 1 月贷款同比少增，稳定需求仍需政策加力 — — 2026 年 1 月 份 金 融 数 据 点 评 (2026-2-14) 息差保持稳定，盈利增速回升——2025 年四 季 度 商 业 银 行 主 要 监 管 指 标 点 评 (2026-2-13) 要点 事项： 年初以来（截至 2 月 13 日），A、H 金融股表现分化，涨跌互现， ...

Inflation Data Summary - In January, the US CPI increased by 2.4% year-on-year, below the market expectation of 2.5% and down from the previous value of 2.7%[2] - Month-on-month, the CPI rose by 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3% and the previous month's 0.3%[2] - Core CPI year-on-year increased by 2.5%, matching market expectations but down from 2.6% previously[2] Key Influences on Inflation - The decline in food and gasoline prices contributed to the unexpected drop in CPI growth, with food prices rising only 0.2% month-on-month compared to 0.7% in the previous month[4] - Energy prices saw a month-on-month decrease of 1.5%, with gasoline prices dropping by 3.2%[4] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to be near its peak, with recent plans to reduce some tariffs further alleviating inflationary pressures[8] Future Outlook - The market currently anticipates the first interest rate cut in June 2026, influenced by the upcoming change in the Federal Reserve leadership[8] - It is expected that the Federal Reserve may pause rate cuts in the first quarter of 2026, resuming a more aggressive rate-cutting approach after the new chair takes office in May 2026[8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the banking industry, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark index by over 15% in the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - In January 2026, new RMB loans amounted to 4.71 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 420 billion, with a growth rate of 6.1%, down 0.3 percentage points from the end of December 2025. The performance of loan growth at the beginning of the year is relatively mild, necessitating attention to the stability of future loan growth [4][24]. - The total social financing in January 2026 reached 7.22 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 1,662 billion, and a growth rate of 8.2%, slightly down from the end of December 2025 [24]. - The M2 growth rate rose to 9% in January, with an increase of 6.9 trillion in M2, marking a significant rise compared to previous years [28][29]. Summary by Sections Loan Growth - In January, the new RMB loans were 4.71 trillion, with a year-on-year decrease of 420 billion, indicating a growth rate of 6.1%, which is lower than the same period in the past three years [4][15]. - Corporate loans played a significant role, with new corporate loans amounting to 4.45 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3 trillion [9]. Social Financing - The new social financing scale was 7.22 trillion, with a growth rate of 8.2%, reflecting resilience in the financing landscape despite a slight decline from the previous month [24][25]. - The government bond issuance in January was 9.764 trillion, contributing to the overall social financing growth [24]. Monetary Supply - M2 increased by 6.9 trillion in January, with a growth rate of 9%, indicating a strong monetary supply environment [28][29]. - M1 also saw a growth rate of 4.9%, with an increase of 2.5 trillion, reflecting improved liquidity in the market [28]. Deposit Growth - In January, new RMB deposits reached 8.09 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 3.77 trillion, marking a historical high [29][36]. - The growth rate of deposits was 9.9%, indicating a stronger deposit growth compared to loan growth, which may alleviate structural liquidity shortages in the banking system [29][31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huahong Semiconductor (1347.HK) [6] Core Views - The company achieved 4Q25 revenue of $660 million, a year-over-year increase of 22.4% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 3.9%, aligning closely with the company's guidance [2] - The gross margin for 4Q25 was 13%, consistent with the guidance range of 12% to 14%, reflecting an increase from the previous year but a slight decrease from the previous quarter [2] - The report highlights strong demand driven by AI and storage sectors, with expectations for cautious optimism regarding ASP in 2026 [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - 4Q25 revenue was $660 million, slightly below the market expectation of $666 million, with wafer shipment volume and ASP growth contributing to the increase [2] - The company reported a net profit of $17.5 million for 4Q25, which was lower than the market expectation of $37.4 million [2] - For the full year 2025, revenue reached $2.402 billion, a 19.9% increase year-over-year, with a gross margin of 11.8% [2] Market Demand and Pricing - The report notes that AI-driven demand led to a 41% year-over-year increase in revenue from analog and power management segments in 4Q25 [3] - Embedded NVM revenue grew by 31% year-over-year, while standalone NVM revenue increased by 23% [3] - The company has implemented slight price increases in 2025 and anticipates further price adjustments in 2026, particularly for 12-inch wafers [3] Capacity and Production - The utilization rate for 4Q25 was 103.8%, with a year-over-year increase of 0.6 percentage points but a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 5.7 percentage points [4] - The company expects continued capacity expansion at Fab 9 and a steady increase in wafer shipments, which will drive revenue growth [4] - The guidance for 1Q26 revenue is set at $650 to $660 million, with a gross margin forecast of 13% to 15% [4] Profitability Forecast - The report adjusts the net profit forecast for 2026 to $142 million, reflecting a 158% year-over-year increase, and for 2027 to $195 million [5] - The company is expected to maintain a high utilization rate and stable pricing, despite increased depreciation pressures from capacity expansion [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huahong Semiconductor (1347.HK) [6] Core Views - The company's 4Q25 performance met guidance with revenue of $660 million, a year-over-year increase of 22.4% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 3.9%, driven by increased wafer shipments and ASP growth [2] - The report is optimistic about the demand for BCD and storage, expecting strong growth in 2026, with a cautious outlook on ASP [3] - The acquisition of Fab 5 is progressing smoothly, and the company is expected to continue expanding its production capacity [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 4Q25, the gross margin was 13%, aligning with the company's guidance of 12% to 14%, with a year-over-year increase of 1.6 percentage points [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders in 4Q25 was $17.5 million, below the market expectation of $37.4 million [2] - For the full year 2025, the company achieved revenue of $2.402 billion, a year-over-year increase of 19.9%, with a gross margin of 11.8% [2] Market Outlook - The report highlights that AI-driven demand is boosting revenue in the analog and power management segments, with a year-over-year increase of 41% in 4Q25 [3] - The embedded NVM revenue grew by 31% year-over-year, while standalone NVM revenue increased by 23% year-over-year, indicating a favorable market for storage [3] Production Capacity and Guidance - The production capacity for 8-inch wafers reached 486,000 pieces per month in 4Q25, with a quarter-over-quarter increase of 3.9% [4] - The company expects 1Q26 revenue to be between $650 million and $660 million, with a gross margin guidance of 13% to 15% [4] - The report anticipates that the company will maintain a high utilization rate in 2026, supported by ongoing capacity expansion and price stability [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecast for 2026 is adjusted to $142 million, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 158.3% [5] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-book ratio of 3.3x for 2026, with expectations of market share growth driven by localized trends and process improvements [5]