2025 年 11 月 1 日 公司研究 Q3 业绩承压，报表继续出清 ——口子窖（603589.SH）2025 年三季报点评 要点 事件：口子窖发布 2025 年三季报，公司 25 年前三季度实现营业总收入 31.74 亿元、同比下滑 27.24%，实现归母净利润 7.42 亿元、同比下滑 43.39%，扣非 归母净利润 7.25 亿元、同比下滑 42.77%。其中 25Q3 单季总营收 6.43 亿元、 同比下滑 46.23%，归母净利润 0.27 亿元、同比下滑 92.55%，扣非归母净利润 0.27 亿元、同比下滑 92.1%。 25Q3 收入下滑幅度较高，报表继续出清。三季度公司收入端同比下滑 46%，消 费场景受损下公司主动释放压力，报表出清幅度相对明显。1）分产品看，25 年 前三季度高档/中档/低档白酒销售收入分别为 29.61/0.41/1.14 亿元，同比 -27.98%/-15.38%/+25.09%，高档白酒需求受损、收入下滑相对明显，其中单 三季度高档/中档/低档白酒销售收入分别为 5.77/0.09/0.46 亿元，同比 -49.35%/-28.51%/+117.28%。2）分区域 ...

2025 年 11 月 1 日 25Q3 收入下滑幅度较高，报表继续出清。三季度公司收入端同比下滑 46%，消 费场景受损下公司主动释放压力，报表出清幅度相对明显。1）分产品看，25 年 前三季度高档/中档/低档白酒销售收入分别为 29.61/0.41/1.14 亿元，同比 -27.98%/-15.38%/+25.09%，高档白酒需求受损、收入下滑相对明显，其中单 三季度高档/中档/低档白酒销售收入分别为 5.77/0.09/0.46 亿元，同比 -49.35%/-28.51%/+117.28%。2）分区域看，25 年前三季度安徽省内/省外销 售收入分别为 25.87/5.30 亿元，同比-27.24%/-23.93%，其中单三季度安徽省 内/省外销售收入分别为 4.86/1.45 亿元，同比-48.95%/-34.04%，省内场景冲击 叠加竞争激烈，三季度收入下滑幅度相对较高。截至 25Q3 末公司省内/省外经 销商分别为 557/564 家，相较 25Q2 末净增 21/18 家。 25Q3 毛利率下移，费用率抬升明显，盈利能力短期承压。1）25Q3 销售毛利率 62.66%、同比下滑 9.25pct，毛 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company has shown marginal improvement in Q3 performance, with efforts to restore market confidence leading to better operational conditions [5][7] - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 1.987 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.17%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 260 million yuan, down 26.13% year-on-year [4] - The company is expected to continue its recovery in Q4, with a focus on channel health and product matrix improvement [7] Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 669 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 4.29%, with net profit of 86 million yuan, down 14.55% year-on-year [4] - The core product categories, soy sauce and vinegar, saw revenue declines of 12.3% and 17.2% respectively in the first three quarters, but the decline narrowed in Q3 to 3.6% and 6.9% [5] Regional Performance - Revenue changes by region in Q3 2025 showed a decline in the East and North regions, while the South and Central regions experienced positive growth [5] Channel Performance - Online revenue decreased by 44.2% in Q3 2025, while offline revenue increased by 3.7%, indicating a recovery in offline channels [6] Cost and Profitability - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 37.4%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 13.1%, down 2.3 percentage points [6] - The company has increased its sales and management expenses due to higher advertising and channel investment [6] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is 408 million yuan, with a corresponding PE ratio of 29x [7][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [4][12]. Core Insights - The company achieved an operating income of 161.2 billion and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 63.1 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of -1.8% and 0.1% respectively [4][5]. - The report highlights a narrowing decline in revenue and a slight positive growth in profit, with net interest income and non-interest income showing year-on-year growth rates of -0.6% and -4.5% respectively [5][8]. - The bank's asset expansion is steady, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.7% in interest-earning assets and 4.3% in loans as of the end of Q3 2025 [6][10]. - The bank's non-performing loan ratio remains low at 1.08%, indicating strong risk compensation capabilities [10][30]. - The report emphasizes the bank's strategic focus on digital transformation and the development of five new business tracks, aiming for a more efficient and sustainable growth model [12][31]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 161.2 billion, a decrease of 1.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 63.1 billion, an increase of 0.1% year-on-year [4][5]. - The annualized weighted average return on equity (ROAE) for the first three quarters of 2025 was 10.07%, down 0.85 percentage points year-on-year [4][5]. Asset and Liability Management - As of Q3 2025, the bank's interest-earning assets and loans grew by 4.7% and 4.3% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a slight acceleration in asset expansion [6][10]. - The bank's deposits increased steadily, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.6% in deposits as of Q3 2025 [7][10]. Profitability and Efficiency - The net interest margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 1.72%, with a narrowing decline compared to previous periods [8][12]. - Non-interest income decreased by 4.5% year-on-year, contributing to a decline in its proportion of total revenue [9][12]. Risk Management - The non-performing loan ratio was reported at 1.08%, with a stable asset quality performance [10][30]. - The bank's provision coverage ratio was 227.8%, indicating strong risk mitigation capabilities [10][30]. Capital Adequacy - As of Q3 2025, the bank's core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio was 9.66%, reflecting a solid capital position [11][30]. - The report notes that the bank has a significant amount of convertible bonds that have not yet been converted, suggesting potential for future capital enhancement [11][12].

2025 年 10 月 31 日 公司研究 增长势能延续，经营周期向上 ——咸亨国际（605056.SH）2025 年三季报点评 要点 事件：公司发布 2025 年三季报，25Q1-3 实现营收/归母净利/扣非归母净利 26.9/1.3/1.3 亿元，同比+35.5%/+32.5%/+36.9%，经营性净现金流-0.2 亿元， 同比+1.4 亿元。单 Q3 实现营收/归母净利/扣非归母净利 11.1/0.7/0.7 亿元，同 比+38.0%/+22.7%/+29.6%，经营性净现金流 1.2 亿元，同比+0.6 亿元。此外， 公司派发现金分红每股 0.08 元（含税），对应公告日股息率 0.5%。 新领域高增拖累毛利率下行，费投收缩显著，盈利能力稳健。 25Q1-3 毛利率 22.2%，同比-5.8pcts，估计与毛利较低的新领域收入延续高增 有关；期间费用率 15.0%，同比-6.1pcts；销售/管理/财务/研发费用率为 7.4%/6.0%/-0.02%/1.6%，同比-3.3/-2.9/+0.3/-0.2pcts。最终销售净利率为 5.0%，同比-0.1pcts，盈利能力相对稳定。 单 Q3 毛利率 2 ...

Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for October 2025 is reported at 49.0%, a significant decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, which is notably higher than the seasonal average decline of 0.4 percentage points observed from 2020 to 2024[2][5] - The production index fell by 2.2 percentage points to 49.7%, while the new orders index decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 48.8%[5][15] - The new export orders index dropped to 45.9%, down 1.9 percentage points, marking the second-lowest level since the introduction of high tariffs in April 2025[5][20] - Small enterprises experienced a notable decline in PMI, falling 1.1 percentage points to 47.1%, while large enterprises' PMI decreased to 49.9%[6] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI for October 2025 is at 50.1%, slightly up from 50.0% in the previous month, driven by holiday consumption[2][28] - The service sector showed improvement, with indices for transportation, retail, and entertainment exceeding 60%, indicating strong performance in consumer-related services[28] - The construction PMI fell to 49.1%, but new orders and business activity expectations increased, suggesting a potential recovery in infrastructure activities[34] Economic Outlook - The report highlights that the construction sector may benefit from the introduction of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools and an additional 200 billion yuan in special bond issuance, which could support infrastructure investment[4][34] - The overall economic environment remains cautious due to external trade uncertainties and domestic demand stability, particularly in high-energy-consuming industries[16][20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue up 42.4% year-on-year to 4.07 billion yuan and net profit up 70.5% to 630 million yuan [2]. - The gross margin improved, with a year-on-year increase of 0.6 percentage points to 27.0% for the first three quarters of 2025, and a notable increase in Q3 2025 gross margin by 4.8 percentage points year-on-year to 29.4% [3]. - The company has established strong customer relationships with leading domestic new energy vehicle manufacturers, enhancing its market position [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.56 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 37.2% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 10.7% [2]. - The net profit for Q3 2025 reached 270 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 102.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 35.1% [2]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The company’s selling, general, and administrative expenses (SG&A) ratio decreased by 0.9 percentage points year-on-year to 6.3% for the first three quarters of 2025 [3]. - The improvement in gross margin is attributed to economies of scale and a decline in upstream raw material prices [3]. Customer and Capacity Advantages - The company has deepened its partnerships with major clients such as Li Auto, Seres, Geely, and BYD, while also expanding its client base to include new players like Leap Motor and Xpeng [4]. - As of Q3 2025, the company’s construction projects increased by 92% year-on-year to 767 million yuan, indicating a robust capacity expansion strategy [4]. Technological Edge - The company has achieved comprehensive layout in bodywork processes and is developing integrated die-casting solutions, which are expected to enhance both volume and pricing [4]. - The company is also venturing into the robotics field, collaborating with Shanghai Electric on customized technology development [4]. Earnings Forecast - The report has revised upward the net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 by 14%, 24%, and 38% respectively, projecting net profits of 920 million yuan, 1.16 billion yuan, and 1.39 billion yuan [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Tianwei Foods (603317.SH) [1] Core Views - The company reported better-than-expected performance in Q3 2025, driven by both organic growth and acquisitions [1][5] - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 2.411 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.98%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 392 million yuan, down 9.30% year-on-year [4][5] - In Q3 2025, revenue was 1.020 billion yuan, up 13.79% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 202 million yuan, an increase of 8.93% year-on-year [4][5] Revenue Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, revenue from various product lines was as follows: hot pot condiments (806 million yuan, +1.59%), recipe-style condiments (1.339 billion yuan, +5.26%), sausage and cured meat condiments (158 million yuan, -27.87%), and others (91 million yuan, +20.01%) [5] - In Q3 2025, revenue growth for hot pot condiments was particularly strong at +24.96% year-on-year, attributed to inventory clearance in Q1 and the onset of the traditional sales peak season [5] - Online sales channels showed robust growth, with a 60.27% increase year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by successful product lines [5][6] Regional Performance - Revenue by region for the first three quarters of 2025 was as follows: Eastern (646 million yuan, +35.56%), Southern (245 million yuan, +4.92%), Western (814 million yuan, -3.71%), Northern (157 million yuan, -13.14%), and Central (532 million yuan, -14.75%) [6] - In Q3 2025, the Eastern region saw a revenue increase of 45.57% year-on-year, while the Southern region increased by 20.91% [6] Profitability and Cost Structure - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 39.4%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, due to cost benefits and improved product mix [7] - The net profit margin for the first three quarters was 16.3%, down 2.0 percentage points year-on-year [7] - In Q3 2025, the gross margin improved to 40.5%, with a period expense ratio of 15.6%, reflecting increased sales and marketing investments [7] Strategic Initiatives - The company is expanding into the compound seasoning market through acquisitions, including a 55% stake in Shandong Yipin Weixiang, enhancing its product line and sales channels [8] - Continuous product innovation is evident with new offerings such as spicy chicken seasoning and thick hot pot products, aimed at broadening the consumer base [8] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 626 million yuan, 706 million yuan, and 785 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.59, 0.66, and 0.74 yuan [8][10] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 19x for 2025, 17x for 2026, and 15x for 2027, indicating a favorable outlook for future growth [8][10]

2025 年 10 月 31 日 ——妙可蓝多（600882.SH）2025 年三季报点评 买入（上调） 当前价：25.11 元 作者 公司研究 BC 两端齐发力，收入利润持续改善 分析师：陈彦彤 执业证书编号：S0930518070002 021-52523689 chenyt@ebscn.com 分析师：汪航宇 执业证书编号：S0930523070002 021-52523174 wanghangyu@ebscn.com 分析师：聂博雅 执业证书编号：S0930522030003 021-52523808 nieboya@ebscn.com -10% 18% 46% 74% 102% 10/24 01/25 04/25 07/25 妙可蓝多 沪深300 | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | % | 1M | 3M | 1Y | | 相对 | 1.76 | -10.21 | -23.20 | | 绝对 | 3.25 | 3.25 | -2.11 | | 资料来源：Wind | | | | 相关研报 B 端业务表现亮眼，利润显著改善——妙可 蓝多（600882. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported a steady performance in Q3 2025, with revenue and net profit for the first three quarters reaching 2.133 billion and 192 million yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 10.5% and 10.6% [4] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue and net profit of 753 million and 75 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 14.6% and 15.7% [4] - All business segments experienced revenue growth, with significant acceleration in the South China, Southwest, and Northwest regions [5] Revenue Performance - For Q3 2025, revenue growth by product was as follows: compound seasoning +9.7%, light cooking solutions +25.0%, and beverage dessert ingredients +3.7% [5] - By region, Q3 2025 revenue growth was: East China +12.0%, South China +101.2%, North China +14.6%, Central China -4.9%, Northeast +16.4%, Southwest +38.0%, Northwest +92.1%, and overseas -20.2% [5] Sales Model - In Q3 2025, direct sales and non-direct sales generated revenues of 610 million and 120 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 17.7% and 5.2% [6] - The company has expanded its distribution network, increasing the number of distributors to 517, a net increase of 14 from Q2 2025 [6] Profitability and Cost Control - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's gross margin was 33.3%, up 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to changes in revenue structure and improved production efficiency [6] - The net profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 9.0%, remaining stable year-on-year [6] Long-term Growth Potential - The company is expected to maintain strong growth momentum, particularly in the C-end revenue driven by the expansion of light cooking solutions, while the B-end will focus on acquiring new customers and maximizing existing customer potential [7] - The company is actively innovating its product matrix and expanding into new channels, indicating robust long-term growth potential [7] Financial Forecasts - The company’s projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 264 million, 307 million, and 337 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.66, 0.77, and 0.84 yuan [7] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 22x for 2025, 19x for 2026, and 17x for 2027 [7]