"三桶油"强化能源保供，谋划高质量发展建设世界一流 ——石油化工行业周报第 439 期（20260202—20260208） 要点 2026 年 2 月 8 日 行业研究 分析师：赵乃迪 执业证书编号：S0930517050005 010-57378026 zhaond@ebscn.com "三桶油"集团及下属子公司召开年度工作会议，强调能源安全、深化转型 升级。近期"三桶油"集团公司及下属子公司陆续召开 2026 年度工作会议， 总结 2025 年工作和"十四五"发展成就，研究提出"十五五"发展思路和目 标任务，部署 2026 年重点工作。2026 年，"三桶油"集团将做强做优做大 油气主业基本盘，增强能源高效供给能力，发挥能源保供"顶梁柱"作用；深 入推动炼油化工结构调整和提质升级，着力提升产业链创效水平和整体竞争 力，建设世界一流能源资源集团。 中国石油集团：发挥能源保供"顶梁柱"作用，为建设能源强国努力奋斗。 （1）中国石油集团强调，到 2030 年，公司要全面实现高质量发展、基本建 成世界一流企业，公司将突出价值创造，坚持向新发展，强化集智攻关，聚焦 治理现代化，树牢底线思维，扎实推进国企改革深化提 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report focuses on the "Fixed Income +" funds from 2019 - 2025, including their types, issuance, performance, and asset structure. It reveals that the issuance of "Fixed Income +" funds was relatively intensive from 2020 - 2022, peaking in 2021. In recent years, secondary bond funds have been the issuance focus. The share and scale of "Fixed Income +" funds have increased significantly from 2019 to 2025, with secondary bond funds playing the leading role. The performance of different types of "Fixed Income +" funds varies in different periods, and in 2025, the asset allocation of some funds has changed. [1][2][19] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 "Fixed Income +" Fund Types - "Fixed Income +" funds should have bond assets as the basis and use non - bond assets (mainly equity or equity - related assets) to enhance returns, with controllable return drawdowns. The main types include first - tier bond funds, second - tier bond funds, partial - debt hybrid funds, and convertible bond funds. [10][11] - First - tier bond funds mainly increase returns through convertible bond investments. Second - tier bond funds can invest in convertible bonds and stocks, with bond and cash assets accounting for at least 80% and stock investment below 20%. Partial - debt hybrid funds have a bond investment ratio of at least 60% and a stock investment ratio of 0 - 40%, with more strategies to enhance returns. Convertible bond funds mainly invest in convertible bonds and balance risks and returns. [11] - Flexible allocation funds and partial - debt FOF funds are not included in the scope of "Fixed Income +" funds in this report. As of December 31, 2025, the total share of partial - debt FOF funds was 1.804 billion, accounting for 0.1% of the total public fund share. [13] 3.2 2019 - 2025 Four "Fixed Income +" Fund Observations 3.2.1 Issuance - From 2020 - 2022, the issuance of "Fixed Income +" funds was relatively intensive, peaking in 2021 with 326 funds issued and a share of 401.25 billion. In 2025, 177 funds were issued, with a share of 65.22 billion, more than in 2024 but less than from 2020 - 2022. [19] - From 2019 - 2025, second - tier bond funds and partial - debt hybrid funds were the issuance focus. Since 2022, the issuance scale of second - tier bond funds has significantly exceeded that of partial - debt hybrid funds. In 2023 - 2025, no new convertible bond funds were issued. In recent years, second - tier bond funds have been the issuance focus, followed by first - tier bond funds. [20] 3.2.2 Stock - At the end of 2025, the total share of "Fixed Income +" funds was 2.2 trillion. Second - tier bond funds accounted for 57.0%, followed by first - tier bond funds (31.5%), partial - debt hybrid funds (10.0%), and convertible bond funds (1.4%). [25] - Compared with the end of 2019, the share of "Fixed Income +" funds increased by 1.46 trillion at the end of 2025, with second - tier bond funds accounting for 72.3% of the increased share. The share change can be divided into three stages: significant increase in second - tier bond funds and partial - debt hybrid funds from 2020 - 2021; continuous reduction in partial - debt hybrid funds and scale contraction in second - tier bond funds from 2022 - 2024; and mainly second - tier bond funds' share growth in 2025. [2][26] 3.2.3 Performance - From 2019 - 2021, convertible bond funds' returns continuously exceeded those of the other three types of "Fixed Income +" funds. [31] - From 2022 - 2023, the performance of different "Fixed Income +" funds was not ideal, but first - tier bond funds maintained positive returns, while convertible bond funds had negative returns for two consecutive years. [31] - From 2024 - 2025, all types of "Fixed Income +" funds achieved positive returns. In 2024, partial - debt hybrid funds performed best, and convertible bond funds performed worst. In 2025, convertible bond funds performed best, and first - tier bond funds performed poorly. [34] 3.2.4 Asset Structure - The proportion of stocks and bonds held by "Fixed Income +" funds fluctuated, and the stage - division of performance was not obvious in the stock - holding proportion. In 2025, the median proportion of stocks held by first - tier bond funds, second - tier bond funds, and partial - debt hybrid funds increased compared to 2024, while that of convertible bond funds decreased slightly. [36] - In 2025, the median proportion of bonds held by different "Fixed Income +" funds decreased compared to 2024. The proportion of convertible bonds held by different funds also decreased in 2025. [37][40]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the copper industry [6] Core Views - Short-term copper prices are expected to fluctuate, but there is optimism for an upward trend in copper prices in 2026 due to ongoing supply-demand tightness [1][4] - The TC spot price continues to hit historical lows, indicating tight procurement of copper concentrate [1][3] - The report recommends specific companies for investment: Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, and Western Mining, while also suggesting to pay attention to Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4] Supply and Demand Summary - **Supply**: - As of February 6, 2026, domestic copper concentrate inventory at major ports is 638,000 tons, down 5.2% from the previous week [2][46] - The TC spot price is at -51.23 USD/ton, a decrease of 0.9 USD/ton from January 30, 2026, marking a low since September 2007 [3][57] - **Demand**: - Cable manufacturing utilization rate increased by 0.7 percentage points to 60.15% as of February 5, 2026 [4][70] - Air conditioning production is projected to decline by 31.6% in February, 6.5% in March, and increase by 4.0% in April 2026 [4][87] Inventory Summary - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 4.0% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory rose by 4.9% [2][24] - Global inventory across major exchanges reached 1,021,000 tons, up 3.6% from January 30, 2026 [2][24] Price Trends - As of February 6, 2026, SHFE copper closed at 100,100 CNY/ton, down 3.45% from January 30, 2026, while LME copper closed at 13,060 USD/ton, down 0.08% [1][17]

2026 年 2 月 8 日 总量研究 ——2026 年 2 月 8 日利率债观察 要点 7D OMO 降息的预期在升温 1、7D OMO 降息的预期在升温 近段时间，市场中对 7D OMO 降息的预期有所升温。这主要是不少投资者"判 断"2 月 4 日 3M 买断式逆回购的边际中标利率已降至 1.4%。鉴于当前 7D OMO 利率也为 1.4%，而 3M 和 7D 的央行资金利率之间通常会有一定的期限利差， 因此一些投资者认为本次 3M 买断式逆回购利率的下行将倒逼 7D OMO 降息。 实际上，买断式逆回购和 MLF 操作采用的是固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中 标的方式，边际中标利率由市场化形成，不具有政策利率的属性。人民银行加大 流动性投放力度，买断式逆回购和 MLF 的量给得足一些，那么自然其边际中标 利率就容易低一些。所以，买断式逆回购边际中标利率的下降与 7D OMO 降息 之间并无必然的联系，或至少说是没有直接的联系。 进一步讲，买断式逆回购和 MLF 操作数量的确定在主观上是为了调控 CD 等货 币市场利率，在客观上又会影响到工具本身的边际中标利率。因此，对于大多数 投资者而言，关注可以实时获 ...

Core Insights - The report introduces a "Five-Dimensional Industry Comparison Framework" that integrates multiple factors affecting stock price performance, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive analysis rather than relying on a single indicator [3][9] - Historical backtesting from 2016 to February 2025 shows that industries with higher scores in this framework tend to perform better, with annualized returns for the top scoring group at 11.8% compared to -10.5% for the lowest scoring group [21][23] - The report suggests a focus on growth sectors for February, particularly in high valuation industries such as electronics, power equipment, machinery, non-ferrous metals, communications, and computers [3][34] Five-Dimensional Industry Comparison Framework - The framework consists of five dimensions: market style, fundamentals, liquidity, trading, and valuation, with subjective judgments applied to market style, liquidity, and valuation [9][12] - The scoring process involves adjusting weights based on market conditions, with equal weighting during non-earnings seasons and increased emphasis on fundamentals during earnings seasons [8][30] February Market Outlook - The report anticipates a growth-oriented market style for February, with expectations of net inflows from public funds and a focus on high valuation sectors [3][34] - Key industries identified for investment include electronics, power equipment, machinery, non-ferrous metals, communications, and computers, which are expected to benefit from favorable market conditions [34][35] Industry Recommendations - **Electronics and Communications**: Companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and ShenNan Circuit are highlighted for their strong positions in AI-related markets and expected growth in demand for high-end products [36] - **Power Equipment**: Firms such as Shenghong Co. and Yangguang Electric are recommended due to their potential benefits from overseas storage and AI power sectors [40] - **High-End Manufacturing**: Companies like Anpeilong and Jingjin Equipment are noted for their advancements in robotics and AI applications, with significant growth potential [42] - **Non-Ferrous Metals**: Companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum are expected to benefit from rising copper prices and strategic stockpiling initiatives [46][47] - **Computers**: Firms such as Hikvision and Kingsoft are recognized for their strong AI capabilities and market positioning, with expectations for sustained growth [49][50]

Quantitative Models and Factors Summary Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model Name: Volume Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses volume signals to determine market timing[12] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model evaluates the volume timing signals for major indices as of February 6, 2026, and maintains a cautious view[24] - **Model Evaluation**: The model is currently signaling a cautious outlook for all major indices[24] Model Name: Momentum Sentiment Indicator - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses the number of stocks with positive returns within an index to gauge market sentiment[24] - **Model Construction Process**: - Calculate the proportion of stocks in the CSI 300 index with positive returns over the past N days - The formula is: $ \text{CSI 300 Index N-day Upward Stock Proportion} = \frac{\text{Number of stocks with positive returns in the past N days}}{\text{Total number of stocks in the index}} $[24] - **Model Evaluation**: The indicator can quickly capture upward opportunities but may miss out on gains during sustained market exuberance and has limitations in predicting downturns[25] Model Name: Moving Average Sentiment Indicator - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses the eight moving average system to determine the trend state of the CSI 300 index[32] - **Model Construction Process**: - Calculate the eight moving average values for the CSI 300 index closing prices with parameters 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233 - Assign values to the moving average indicator based on the moving average interval values - The formula is: $ \text{Indicator Value} = \begin{cases} -1 & \text{if interval value is 1/2/3} \\ 0 & \text{if interval value is 4/5/6} \\ 1 & \text{if interval value is 7/8/9} \end{cases} $[32] - **Model Evaluation**: The recent CSI 300 index is in a non-prosperous sentiment interval[32] Model Backtesting Results Volume Timing Model - **Signal**: Cautious for all major indices[24] Momentum Sentiment Indicator - **Current Value**: The indicator is above 60%, indicating high market sentiment[25] Moving Average Sentiment Indicator - **Current Value**: The CSI 300 index is in a non-prosperous sentiment interval[32] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor Name: Cross-sectional Volatility - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor measures the cross-sectional volatility of index constituent stocks to assess the Alpha environment[36] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the cross-sectional volatility for the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index constituent stocks - The formula is: $ \text{Cross-sectional Volatility} = \sqrt{\frac{1}{N-1} \sum_{i=1}^{N} (R_i - \bar{R})^2} $ where $ R_i $ is the return of stock i, and $ \bar{R} $ is the average return[37] - **Factor Evaluation**: The short-term Alpha environment has deteriorated, but the quarterly view shows a good Alpha environment for the CSI 300 and CSI 1000 indices[36] Factor Name: Time-series Volatility - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor measures the time-series volatility of index constituent stocks to assess the Alpha environment[37] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the time-series volatility for the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index constituent stocks - The formula is: $ \text{Time-series Volatility} = \sqrt{\frac{1}{T-1} \sum_{t=1}^{T} (R_t - \bar{R})^2} $ where $ R_t $ is the return at time t, and $ \bar{R} $ is the average return[40] - **Factor Evaluation**: The recent week shows an improvement in the Alpha environment for all indices[37] Factor Backtesting Results Cross-sectional Volatility - **CSI 300**: - Last quarter average: 2.17% - Last quarter percentile (2 years): 70.99% - Last quarter percentile (1 year): 74.07% - Last quarter percentile (6 months): 65.64%[37] - **CSI 500**: - Last quarter average: 2.48% - Last quarter percentile (2 years): 48.41% - Last quarter percentile (1 year): 53.97% - Last quarter percentile (6 months): 56.35%[37] - **CSI 1000**: - Last quarter average: 2.63% - Last quarter percentile (2 years): 66.53% - Last quarter percentile (1 year): 68.92% - Last quarter percentile (6 months): 66.14%[37] Time-series Volatility - **CSI 300**: - Last quarter average: 0.96% - Last quarter percentile (2 years): 58.02% - Last quarter percentile (1 year): 60.91% - Last quarter percentile (6 months): 47.94%[40] - **CSI 500**: - Last quarter average: 1.27% - Last quarter percentile (2 years): 50.00% - Last quarter percentile (1 year): 57.94% - Last quarter percentile (6 months): 60.32%[40] - **CSI 1000**: - Last quarter average: 1.22% - Last quarter percentile (2 years): 63.35% - Last quarter percentile (1 year): 71.31% - Last quarter percentile (6 months): 66.93%[40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The overall issuance volume of credit bonds decreased month - on - month, and the credit spreads of various industries showed mixed trends [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market 3.1.1 Issuance Statistics - From February 2nd to February 6th, 2026, a total of 432 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 399.332 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 15.10% [11] - Industrial bonds: 184 were issued, with a scale of 166.015 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 30.88%, accounting for 41.57% of the total credit bond issuance [11] - Urban investment bonds: 210 were issued, with a scale of 141.497 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 19.61%, accounting for 35.43% of the total [11] - Financial bonds: 38 were issued, with a scale of 91.820 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 17.94%, accounting for 22.99% of the total [11] - The average issuance term of credit bonds was 2.82 years, with industrial bonds at 2.29 years, urban investment bonds at 3.49 years, and financial bonds at 2.19 years [13] - The average issuance coupon rate of credit bonds was 2.13%, with industrial bonds at 2.03%, urban investment bonds at 2.25%, and financial bonds at 1.91% [17] 3.1.2 Cancellation of Issuance Statistics - Four credit bonds cancelled their issuance this week [22] 3.2 Secondary Market 3.2.1 Credit Spread Tracking - In Shenwan's first - level industries, the largest upward movement in AAA - rated industry credit spreads was in the food and beverage industry (2.2BP), and the largest downward movement was in the light manufacturing industry (1.2BP). For AA + - rated industries, the largest upward movement was in non - ferrous metals (5.6BP), and the largest downward movement was in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (2.4BP). For AA - rated industries, the largest upward movement was in non - bank finance (1.8BP), and the largest downward movement was in the computer industry (6.3BP) [24] - In terms of urban investment bonds by region, for AAA - rated bonds, the largest upward movement was in Jilin (5.9BP), and the largest downward movement was in Inner Mongolia (2.1BP). For AA + - rated bonds, the largest upward movement was in Beijing (5.8BP), and the largest downward movement was in Fujian (2.7BP). For AA - rated bonds, the largest upward movement was in Guangxi (1.5BP), and the largest downward movement was in Yunnan (6.7BP) [26] - Coal credit spreads showed mixed trends, and steel credit spreads generally increased. For coal, AAA, AA +, and AA - rated credit spreads increased by 1.5BP, decreased by 0.9BP, and increased by 1.1BP respectively. For steel, AAA and AA + - rated credit spreads increased by 1.5BP and 5BP respectively [24] - Urban investment credit spreads of various levels showed mixed trends, and non - urban investment credit spreads generally increased. The three - level urban investment credit spreads increased by 0.1BP, decreased by 0.6BP, and decreased by 0.8BP respectively; the three - level non - urban investment credit spreads increased by 0.6BP, increased by 0.8BP, and remained flat respectively [24] - State - owned enterprise credit spreads showed mixed trends, and private enterprise credit spreads generally decreased. For central state - owned enterprises, the three - level credit spreads increased by 1.5BP, decreased by 0.7BP, and decreased by 0.9BP respectively; for local state - owned enterprises, the three - level credit spreads increased by 0.2BP, decreased by 0.2BP, and decreased by 1.4BP respectively; for AAA and AA + - rated private enterprises, credit spreads decreased by 0.4BP and 1BP respectively [25] 3.2.2 Trading Volume Statistics - The total trading volume of credit bonds was 147.0414 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 8.17%. The top three in terms of trading volume were commercial bank bonds, corporate bonds, and medium - term notes. Commercial bank bonds had a trading volume of 49.7061 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 8.95%, accounting for 33.80% of the total. Corporate bonds had a trading volume of 41.3421 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 9.23%, accounting for 28.12% of the total. Medium - term notes had a trading volume of 31.2069 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 7.75%, accounting for 21.22% of the total [27] 3.2.3 Actively Traded Bonds This Week - The report selects the top 20 urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds in terms of trading volume this week for investors' reference [29]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced fluctuations and adjustments, with major indices generally declining, particularly the ChiNext and CSI 500, while the Shanghai 50 and SME 100 saw smaller declines. The current valuation of the Sci-Tech 50 and Wind All A indices is relatively high, with their PE(TTM) percentile above 90% since 2010 as of February 6, 2026 [1][11][14] - The report highlights a positive outlook for the upcoming spring market, suggesting that favorable policies and fundamental factors may emerge in the coming months. However, a short-term correction is anticipated before the Spring Festival due to tightening liquidity and reduced trading enthusiasm among investors [3][25] - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining positions during the holiday period, as historical data indicates that the market tends to perform well in the 20 trading days following the Spring Festival [3][31] Group 2 - Key industries to focus on include electronics, power equipment, machinery, non-ferrous metals, communications, and computers, which are expected to show growth and independent prosperity in February. The report suggests that investors should pay attention to these sectors [4][34][35] - The report identifies short-term investment opportunities in the "price increase" theme, particularly in chemical raw materials and petroleum and petrochemical sectors, while recommending a mid-term strategy to accumulate positions in the metals sector after it stabilizes [4][35] - The report notes that the second-hand housing market in several key cities showed signs of recovery in January, with significant year-on-year increases in transaction volumes, indicating a potential rebound in the real estate sector [21][22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company is positioned to benefit from the acceleration of domestic aircraft deliveries and the development opportunities in commercial aerospace, with significant projects and contracts in place [1][2] - The company has increased its R&D investments and is focusing on high-quality, low-cost development in emerging sectors such as commercial aerospace and low-altitude economy, despite facing short-term profit pressures [3] Summary by Sections Aerospace and Commercial Opportunities - The domestic large aircraft delivery is expected to speed up, with 15 C919 aircraft projected to be delivered in 2025, an increase from 2024 [1] - The company has secured contracts for composite material components and tooling, including a 246.3 million yuan project with AVIC [1] - The company is actively involved in the manufacturing of composite parts for major domestic aircraft manufacturers, including components for the C919 and CJ-1000 engines [1] Satellite Communication and Emerging Markets - The company has completed key satellite communication products and is positioned as a core supplier for ground systems, which is expected to benefit from the growing demand in commercial aerospace [2] - The company plans to enhance its R&D efforts in integrated aerospace products and communication technologies to expand its product offerings [2] Financial Performance and Projections - The company anticipates a significant decline in net profit for 2025, projecting approximately 41 million yuan, a decrease of about 59.63% year-on-year due to increased R&D costs and customer budget cuts [3] - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 532 million yuan and 746 million yuan, respectively, with a new projection for 2027 at 1.018 billion yuan [4] - The expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 0.10 yuan, 0.32 yuan, and 0.46 yuan, respectively [4]

2026 年 2 月 6 日 晨会速递 【债券】中长端信用债表现优于短端，机构博弈摊余成本法债基"定开潮"——信用 债月度观察（2026.1） 整体来看，受摊余成本法债基集中定开、年初配置盘支撑等因素的影响，2026 年 1 月中长端信用债表现整体优于短端信用债，3-15 年期中短期票据收益率下行显著。 具体来看，产业债 3-5 年期品种表现突出。城投债短期限下沉策略表现较为突出，AA- 级 2–3 年期城投债表现强势，收益率于本月下行 12bp 左右；同时中高等级城投债的 拉长久期策略也较为突出。 公司研究 【海外 TMT】FY26Q1 业绩符合预期， 内存短缺拖累下游需求——高通（QCOM.O） FY26Q1 业绩点评(增持) 高通 FY26Q1 业绩符合预期，FY26Q2 指引不及预期，主要系内存短缺&涨价对下游 需求产生不利影响。。维持对公司 FY2026-2028GAAP 归母净利润 115 亿/125 亿/130 亿美元的预测，分别同比增长 108%/8%/4%，现价对应 FY2026-2028 PE 分别为 14X、 13X、12X，维持"增持"评级。 【纺服】潮领风尚，厚积薄发——潮宏基（00 ...