2025 年 10 月 31 日 公司研究 业务多元，趋势向好 ——伊利股份（600887.SH）2025 年三季报点评 要点 事件：伊利股份发布 2025 年三季报，25Q1-Q3 实现营业收入 905.64 亿元，同 比+1.71%；归母净利润 104.26 亿元，同比-4.07%；扣非归母净利润 101.03 亿 元，同比+18.73%。其中，25Q3 单季度实现营业收入 286.31 亿元，同比-1.70%； 归母净利润 32.26 亿元，同比-3.35%；扣非归母净利润 30.86 亿元，同比-3.08%。 液奶表现相对稳定，其他品类增势良好。1）液体乳 25Q3 实现收入 188.14 亿元， 同比-8.83%。主要系公司考虑到终端动销偏弱，双节期间常温液奶备货更加理 性，减少经销商库存，提高经销商盈利能力。公司产品终端价格和新鲜度表现均 持续向好。常温品类前三季度市场份额保持稳定，其中乳饮料积极推新，收入同 比实现正增长。常温酸奶收入同比降幅收窄，市场份额进一步提升。公司推出系 列质价比产品，常温白奶中基础白奶表现相对更好。低温品类收入增长稳健，其 中低温酸奶加强产品创新，低温鲜奶丰富产品价格带 ...

2025 年 10 月 31 日 公司研究 上海区域企稳，利润有所承压 ——光明乳业（600597.SH）2025 年三季报点评 要点 盈利预测、估值与评级：考虑到终端动销有待恢复，下调 2025-2027 年归母净 利润预测为 3.37/3.90/4.63 亿元（较前次下调 39.5%/37.7%/34.6%），对应 2025-2027 年 EPS 为 0.24/0.28/0.34 元，当前股价对应 P/E 分别为 35/30/25 倍，公司作为区域性乳企龙头具备一定竞争优势，维持"增持"评级。 事件：光明乳业发布 2025 年三季报，25Q1-Q3 实现营业收入 182.31 亿元，同 比-0.99%；归母净利润 0.87 亿元，同比-25.05%；扣非归母净利润 1.61 亿元， 同比-24.68%。其中，25Q3 单季度实现营业收入 57.59 亿元，同比+1.04%；归 母净亏损 1.30 亿元，24 年同期为归母净亏损 1.64 亿元；扣非归母净亏损 0.91 亿元，24 年同期为归母净亏损 1.35 亿元。 上海区域经营企稳，海外区域表现良好。分产品看，25Q3 液态奶/其他乳制品/ 牧业产品分 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 7.1 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.03 billion yuan, also up 2.7% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2025, the skincare segment saw a significant decline in revenue by 20.4%, while the hair care segment experienced remarkable growth of 137.7% [2]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters improved by 3.6 percentage points to 73.7%, while the expense ratio increased by 3.6 percentage points to 55.3% [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue was 1.74 billion yuan, down 11.6% year-on-year, with net profit at 0.23 billion yuan, down 23.6% year-on-year [1][2]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 74.7%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.0 percentage points [3]. Profitability Forecast - The net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been revised downwards by 15%, 14%, and 13% respectively, with projected net profits of 1.53 billion, 1.79 billion, and 2.07 billion yuan [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the same years are 3.86, 4.52, and 5.22 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 20, 17, and 15 [4]. Cash Flow and Inventory Management - Operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2025 was 1.2 billion yuan, an increase of 196.7% year-on-year [3]. - Inventory as of September 2025 increased by 47.6% from the beginning of the year to 0.98 billion yuan, while accounts receivable decreased by 38.5% to 0.32 billion yuan [3].

要点 事件：公司发布 2025 年三季报，前三季度实现营业收入、归母净利润、扣非归 母净利润分别为 6.92/0.65/0.63 亿元，同比+51.86%/985%/2508%。经营性净 现金流 1.91 亿元，同比转正；EPS（基本）0.13 元。业绩略超市场预期。 点评： 营销改革顺利推进，止咳宝片销量超年初预期。25Q1-Q3 公司营收分别为 2.95/ 1.96/2.01 亿元，同比+79%/31%/41%，持续呈现恢复式增长。今年以来，公司 深化营销组织变革取得积极成效，止咳宝片实施分规格、分渠道销售管理，其中 36 片/盒、48 片/盒、600 片规格均由公司自营团队负责，分别覆盖全国头部连 锁药店、电商平台、第三终端市场，而 24 片/盒规格采用自营+推广服务商的模 式进行推广。25H1 止咳宝片的销量为 3.31 亿片，恢复至 2023 年同期的 61.29%。 25Q1-Q3 止咳宝片的销量实为 4.35 亿片，恢复至 2023 年同期的 64%，超过公 司年初预期，呈现较好的渠道渗透趋势。随着止咳宝片发货数量的显著回升，公 司盈利能力也实现了强劲修复，25Q1-Q3 年公司销售毛利率同比+ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company reported better-than-expected performance for Q3 2025, with revenue of 7.48 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year growth of 32.76%, and a net profit of 0.85 billion yuan, up 16.39% year-over-year [1] - The strong performance is attributed to high growth in the front-end business, which generated 5.4 billion yuan in revenue, a year-over-year increase of over 36% [1][2] - The company has improved efficiency and strictly controlled costs, contributing to the positive financial results [1] Summary by Sections Front-end Business - The front-end business, including tool compounds and biochemical reagents, serves as the primary growth engine, maintaining high revenue growth [2] - The molecular building blocks segment has seen a significant increase in customer and order numbers, marking it as a secondary growth engine [2] - As of June 2025, the company has a reserve of over 52,000 tool compounds and biochemical reagents, and approximately 95,000 molecular building blocks, creating a comprehensive compound library [2] Back-end Business - The back-end business, which includes APIs, intermediates, and formulations, has a strong order backlog exceeding 5.9 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 40.1% [3] - The company is enhancing its competitive edge in the XDC segment and has established a strategic layout across Shanghai, Ma'anshan, and Chongqing [3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 2.88 billion yuan and 4.00 billion yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 set at 5.19 billion yuan [3] - The estimated EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.36 yuan, 1.89 yuan, and 2.45 yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 62, 45, and 35 [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yiling Pharmaceutical (002603.SZ) [6] Core Views - The company's Q3 revenue has rebounded, indicating strong growth potential for the full year, particularly with expectations for performance during the flu season [2] - The company has significantly improved its profitability metrics, with gross margin increasing by 7.14 percentage points to 60.53% and net profit margin rising by 8.33 percentage points to 17.05% [2] - The company is a leader in innovative traditional Chinese medicine, benefiting from policy incentives for innovation [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 5.868 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.82%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 80.33% to 1 billion yuan [1] - Q3 revenue showed a significant improvement, with a quarter-on-quarter increase attributed to the recovery of core product shipments following marketing reforms [2] Research and Development - The company has increased R&D investment, with R&D expenses reaching 544 million yuan, accounting for 9.27% of revenue, a year-on-year increase of 0.29 percentage points [3] - Several innovative drugs have been approved or are in various stages of clinical trials, indicating a robust pipeline for future growth [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted upwards, with net profit estimates of 1.304 billion yuan for 2025, 1.551 billion yuan for 2026, and 1.779 billion yuan for 2027 [4] - The current price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 22 for 2025, 19 for 2026, and 16 for 2027, reflecting a favorable valuation [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue down 11.5% year-on-year to 1.3 billion yuan and net profit down 36.7% to 330 million yuan [1][3]. - The report highlights increased sales expenses and a decrease in gross margin, with the gross margin for the first three quarters down 0.5 percentage points to 81.1% [2][3]. - Due to uncertainties in terminal demand and increasing industry competition, the profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised downwards, with net profit estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 adjusted to 460 million yuan, 509 million yuan, and 556 million yuan respectively [3]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 1.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.5% year-on-year, with a single-quarter revenue of 430 million yuan in Q3, down 17.6% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 81.1%, with quarterly margins of 83.0%, 80.6%, and 80.4% for Q1, Q2, and Q3 respectively [2]. - The operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 240 million yuan, a decrease of 48.5% year-on-year [2]. Profitability and Valuation Metrics - The report provides updated earnings per share (EPS) estimates of 0.89 yuan, 0.98 yuan, and 1.07 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 28, 25, and 23 [3][4]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to decline to 8.04% in 2025, with a gradual increase to 9.0% by 2027 [4][12].

2025 年 10 月 31 日 公司研究 盈利超预期高增，NBV 增幅进一步走阔 ——中国人寿（601628.SH、2628.HK）2025 年三季报点评 A 股：买入（维持） 当前价：44.38 元人民币 H 股：买入（维持） 当前价：24.72 港币 作者 分析师：王一峰 执业证书编号：S0930519050002 010-57378038 wangyf@ebscn.com 分析师：黄怡婷 执业证书编号：S0930524070003 010-57378023 huangyiting@ebscn.com | 市场数据（A 股） | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(亿股) | 282.65 | | 总市值(亿元)： | 12543.88 | | 一年最低/最高(元)： | 33.61/50.88 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 9.7% | 股价相对走势 | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | % | 1M | 3M | 1Y | | 相对 | 11.1 | -6.5 | -14.1 | 绝对 12.6 9.1 7.0 资料来源：Wind 要点 事件 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company is positioned to benefit from dual drivers: the upgrade cycle of major North American clients and the new AI hardware cycle [8] - The company’s growth prospects are supported by traditional business upgrades and new market opportunities in AI hardware [8] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates across five major segments: acoustics, electromagnetic actuation, optics, sensors, and automotive [5] - Recent product showcases include high-energy density speakers and innovative coaxial speaker products [5][6] Acoustics and Electromagnetic Actuation - The company presented a self-developed micro motor solution, enhancing performance metrics significantly [6] - The new vibration motor for the vivo X300 Pro shows improvements in steady-state and transient vibration [6] Optical and Thermal Management - The company achieved breakthroughs in WLG technology, improving yield and capacity [6] - Thermal management solutions are aligned with the demands of high-end devices [6] Market Dynamics - The upgrade cycle for North American clients, particularly the iPhone 17 series, is expected to boost core component orders [7] - The company is positioned as a key supplier for various components, benefiting from increased demand [7] AI Hardware Opportunities - The company is strategically entering the AI hardware market, aligning its technology with the needs of AI edge devices [8] - Collaborations with major brands for AI-related products are underway, setting the stage for future growth [8] Financial Projections - The report forecasts net profits for 2025 at 2.406 billion RMB, with a growth trajectory supported by improving optical business profitability and diversified market opportunities [8][10]

2025 年 10 月 31 日 公司研究 前三季度油气产量显著增长，盈利能力保持韧性 ——中国海油（600938.SH）2025 年三季报点评 买入（维持） 当前价：27.01 元 作者 分析师：赵乃迪 执业证书编号：S0930517050005 010-57378026 zhaond@ebscn.com 分析师：蔡嘉豪 执业证书编号：S0930523070003 021-52523800 caijiahao@ebscn.com 分析师：王礼沫 执业证书编号：S0930524040002 010-56513142 wanglimo@ebscn.com 25H1 油气产量再创新高，油价波动期盈利 韧性凸显——中国海油（600938.SH）2025 年半年报点评（2025-08-28） 要点 事件： 公司发布 2025 年三季报。2025 年前三季度，公司实现营业总收入 3125 亿元， 同比-4.1%，实现归母净利润 1020 亿元，同比-12.6%。2025Q3 单季，公司实现营 业总收入 1049 亿元，同比+5.7%，环比+4.1%，实现归母净利润 324 亿元，同比 -12.2%，环比-1.6%。 点 ...