2025 年 4 月 10 日 总量研究 关税冲突下，国内通胀如何演绎？ ——2025 年 3 月价格数据点评 作者 分析师：高瑞东 执业证书编号：S0930520120002 010-56513108 gaoruidong@ebscn.com 分析师：刘星辰 执业证书编号：S0930522030001 021-52523880 liuxc@ebscn.com 相关研报 春节效应助力 CPI 回升——2025 年 1 月价 格数据点评兼光大宏观周报（2025-02- 09） 核心 CPI 缘何回升？——2024 年 12 月价格 数据点评（2025-01-09） 稳物价政策效果初现——2024 年 11 月价格 数据点评（2024-12-09） 如何走出低物价循环？——2024 年 10 月价 格数据点评兼光大宏观周报（2024-11- 09） 国内物价为何超预期回落？——2024 年 9 月价格数据点评兼光大宏观周报（2024- 10-13） 为何 CPI 和 PPI 走势分化？——2024 年 8 月价格数据点评（2024-09-09） 核心 CPI 降至低位——2024 年 7 月价格数 据点评（202 ...

2025 年 4 月 10 日 联系人：吴子倩 021-52523872 wuziqian@ebscn.com 公司研究 24 年业绩表现稳健， 持续推进三大基地协同发展 ——太阳纸业（002078.SZ）2024 年年报点评 买入（维持） 当前价：13.62 元 作者 分析师：姜浩 执业证书编号：S0930522010001 021-52523680 jianghao@ebscn.com 市场数据 | 总股本(亿股) | 27.95 | | --- | --- | | 总市值(亿元)： | 380.62 | | 一年最低/最高(元)： | 11.58/16.53 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 33.83% | 股价相对走势 -21% -11% 0% 10% 20% 04/24 07/24 10/24 01/25 太阳纸业 沪深300 | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | % | 1M | 3M | 1Y | | 相对 | 0.22 | -2.23 | -11.95 | | 绝对 | -5.94 | -4.69 | -7.61 | | 资料来源：Wind | ...

2025 年 4 月 10 日 公司研究 广西基地产能释放营收大幅增长，现金分红总额续创新高 ——川恒股份（002895.SZ）2024 年报点评 要点 事件：公司发布 2024 年年报。2024 年，公司实现营收 59.06 亿元，同比增长 36.72%；实现归母净利润 9.56 亿元，同比增长 24.80%；实现扣非后归母净利 润 9.36 亿元，同比增长 23.01%。2024Q4，公司单季度实现营收 19.32 亿元， 同比增长 54.83%，环比增长 29.73%；实现归母净利润 2.84 亿元，同比增长 3.43%，环比减少 10.73%。 点评： 磷化工产品销量显著增长，分红总额续创新高。随着公司原有产能装置负荷的进 一步提高，以及公司广西基地新增产能的释放，2024 年公司磷酸二氢钙、磷酸 一铵、磷酸等主要产品销量显著增长，进而带动公司整体营收快速增长。2024 年，公司磷酸二氢钙、磷酸一铵、磷酸销量分别为 37.0 万吨、26.6 万吨、31.5 万吨，同比分别增长 15.8%、15.7%、107.9%。此外，得益于 2024 年年内工 业级磷酸一铵价格的上涨，2024 年公司磷酸一铵销售均 ...

2025 年 4 月 10 日 公司研究 盈利能力持续提升，智能物流业务有望打开第二成长曲线 ——安徽合力（600761.SH）2024 年报点评 要点 业绩小幅增长，盈利能力持续提升 安徽合力 2024 年实现营业收入 173.3 亿元，同比增长 1.0%（调整后）；归 母净利润 13.2 亿元，同比增长 0.2%（调整后）。毛利率为 23.5%，同比提升 2.9 个百分点；净利率为 8.7%，同比提升 0.6 个百分点。 叉车锂电化进程不断推进，公司有望深度受益 维持"买入"评级 考虑到关税政策变动或对公司业绩造成影响，出于审慎原则我们下调公司 2025-2026 年归母净利润预测 25.6%/28.2%至 14.2/16.0 亿元，引入 2027 年归 母净利润预测 18.1 亿元，对应 EPS 分别为 1.60/1.80/2.03 元。公司有望深度受 益于叉车行业国际化、锂电化进程，同时智能物流、维保业务有望为公司打开第 二成长曲线，维持公司"买入"评级。 风险提示：上游原材料价格波动的风险；扩产进度不及预期的风险；海外市场拓 展不及预期的风险 公司盈利预测与估值简表 | 指标 | 2023 | 20 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [3][12]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 3.07 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 36.5%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 33.61% to 301 million yuan, with a non-recurring net profit of 281 million yuan, down 11.87% year-on-year [1][3]. - Revenue growth was primarily driven by veterinary biological products and the pet supply chain, which grew by 23.4% and 37.66% respectively. In contrast, revenue from formulations and raw materials declined by 5.83%, and pet medicines saw a decrease of 28.26% [1][3]. - The company is actively enhancing its strategic industrial structure through high-level R&D investments, with R&D expenses amounting to 197 million yuan, representing 6.4% of total revenue. The acquisition of Baoding Shoujun's 100% equity extends its business into foot-and-mouth disease vaccines [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 3,070 million yuan, with a growth rate of 36.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 301 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 33.61% [4][8]. - The revenue breakdown shows significant increases in pet biological products (849.09%), livestock biological products (49.78%), and the pet supply chain (37.66%), while pet medicines decreased by 28.26% [1][2]. R&D and Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on strengthening its industrial structure by maintaining high R&D investments, with a total of 197 million yuan allocated for 2024. Collaborations with research institutions are also underway to accelerate innovation [2][3]. Market Outlook and Profitability - The report anticipates a recovery in the livestock and poultry breeding sector, with gradual improvements in the company's main business. However, profit forecasts for 2025-2026 have been adjusted downward due to anticipated pressures in the veterinary medicine sector [3][4]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.86 yuan, 1.08 yuan, and 1.31 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 21, 17, and 14 [4][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [4]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 6.901 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.50%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 574 million yuan, up 13.82% year-on-year [1]. - Domestic sales faced pressure with a decline of 10.78% to 4.862 billion yuan, primarily due to oversupply in the polysilicon segment, while international sales surged by 68.26% to 1.981 billion yuan, driven by increased global demand for AI and renewable energy [2]. - The company capitalized on the AI wave, with a significant increase in data center orders, resulting in a 167.43% growth in sales revenue from new infrastructure, and a staggering 603.68% increase in data center order value [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 6.901 billion yuan, with a net profit of 574 million yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 551 million yuan, reflecting growth rates of 13.82% and 14.64% respectively [1]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 2.102 billion yuan, a 10.97% increase year-on-year, but a slight decrease in net profit by 0.45% [1]. Sales Breakdown - Domestic sales decreased to 4.862 billion yuan, while international sales increased significantly to 1.981 billion yuan, highlighting the company's successful global expansion strategy [2]. - The company established long-term partnerships with major international firms, enhancing its global market presence [2]. Growth Opportunities - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing AI data center construction, with a notable increase in orders and revenue from new infrastructure projects [3]. - The storage and digitalization segments also showed promising growth, with storage product revenue increasing by 26.34% to 523 million yuan and digital solutions revenue rising by 74.04% to 123 million yuan [3]. Profitability and Valuation - The report projects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 750 million yuan, 953 million yuan, and 1.183 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS estimates of 1.64, 2.08, and 2.59 yuan [4][5]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 18 for 2025, indicating a favorable valuation compared to future earnings growth [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected investment return that will outperform the market benchmark by over 15% in the next 6-12 months [3][12]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 3.07 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 36.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 33.61% to 301 million yuan [1][4]. - The revenue growth is primarily driven by the veterinary biological products and pet supply chain, which grew by 23.4% and 37.66% respectively [1]. - The overall gross margin decreased from 49.69% in 2023 to 41.38% in 2024 due to market price fluctuations and rising raw material costs [1]. Revenue and Profitability - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 3.07 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 36.5% compared to 2023 [4]. - The net profit for 2024 is forecasted at 301 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 33.61% from the previous year [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 0.65 yuan, with projections for 2025 and 2026 at 0.86 yuan and 1.08 yuan respectively [4][10]. R&D and Strategic Developments - The company maintained a high level of R&D investment in 2024, with R&D expenses amounting to 197 million yuan, representing a rate of 6.4% of revenue [2]. - The acquisition of 100% equity in Baoding Shoujun extends the company's business into foot-and-mouth disease vaccines, enhancing its strategic industry structure [2]. Pet Medical Sector - The pet segment generated 690 million yuan in revenue in 2024, accounting for 22.47% of total revenue, with significant contributions from pet biological products [2]. - The pet biological products revenue surged by 849% year-on-year, driven by the successful launch of the "Rui Miao Shu" cat trivalent vaccine [2]. Financial Forecasts - The company’s revenue is expected to grow to 3.23 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected growth rate of 5.14% [4]. - The net profit is anticipated to recover to 401 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 33.27% [4]. - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 21, 17, and 14 respectively [4][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [4]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 6.901 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.50%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 574 million yuan, up 13.82% year-on-year [1]. - Domestic sales faced pressure with a decline of 10.78% to 4.862 billion yuan, primarily due to oversupply in the polysilicon segment, while international sales surged by 68.26% to 1.981 billion yuan, driven by increased global demand for AI and renewable energy [2]. - The company capitalized on the AI wave, with a significant increase in data center orders, resulting in a 167.43% growth in sales revenue from new infrastructure, and a staggering 603.68% increase in data center order value [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 6.901 billion yuan, with a net profit of 574 million yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 551 million yuan, reflecting growth rates of 3.50%, 13.82%, and 14.64% respectively [1]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenues of 2.102 billion yuan, a 10.97% increase year-on-year, but a slight decrease in net profit by 0.45% [1]. Sales Breakdown - Domestic sales decreased to 4.862 billion yuan, a drop of 10.78%, while international sales rose to 1.981 billion yuan, marking a growth of 68.26% [2]. - The company has established long-term partnerships with major international firms such as General Electric and Siemens, enhancing its global market presence [2]. Order Growth and Future Prospects - The company signed over 140 data center orders, with a total order value of 3.324 billion yuan, indicating a robust future revenue stream [3]. - The energy storage segment generated 523 million yuan in revenue, up 26.34%, while digital solutions revenue reached 123 million yuan, growing by 74.04% [3]. Profitability and Valuation - The report projects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 750 million yuan, 953 million yuan, and 1.183 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS estimates of 1.64 yuan, 2.08 yuan, and 2.59 yuan [5]. - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 18 for 2025, 14 for 2026, and 12 for 2027, suggesting a favorable valuation compared to projected earnings [4].

2025 年 4 月 10 日 总量研究 关税互搏，中美经济韧性谁更强？ ——《大国博弈》系列第八十二篇 作者 分析师：高瑞东 执业证书编号：S0930520120002 010-56513108 gaoruidong@ebscn.com 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 分析师：刘星辰 执业证书编号：S0930522030001 021-52523880 liuxc@ebscn.com 分析师：周可 执业证书编号： S0930524120001 021-52523677 zhouke@ebscn.com 联系人：周欣平 010-57378026 zhouxinping@ebscn.com 相关研报 特朗普升级全球关税战，对华后续军棋推演 ——《大国博弈》系列第八十一篇（2025- 04-03） 美国政府停摆迫近，影响几何？——《大国 博弈》系列第八十篇（2025-03-11） 中美关税第二轮，双方在如何出牌？—— 《大国博弈》系列第七十九篇（2025-03- 05） 从减税视角出发，特朗普后续关税力度几 何？——《大 ...

2025 年 4 月 10 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【债券】做好防守，相机而动——可转债 2025Q1 回顾与后续展望 【医药】进口替代有望加速，关注国产手术机器人市场份额攀升——手术机器人行业 跟踪报告(增持) 手术机器人行业潜在空间大、渗透率低，增长动力充足；技术和资金壁垒较高、商业 模式出色，业内公司营收持续性和盈利能力有保障。建议优先关注治疗而非检测、患 者基数大、初步具备产业化基础的细分赛道，如腔镜机器人行业。建议关注微创机器 人-B（H）、康基医疗（H）（战略投资唯精医疗）、威高股份（H）（集团布局妙手 手术机器人等），此外，建议关注精锋医疗、思哲睿、键嘉医疗、术锐机器人等未上 市公司。 【基化】关税反制背景下，持续看好化肥及农药板块投资机会——石化化工交运行业 日报第 47 期（20250408）(增持) 2025 年一季度转债市场整体表现优于权益市场。2023 年四季度以来，转债市场的存 续规模持续下降，今年以来延续了这一趋势。2018-2019 年中美关税摩擦阶段，转债 市场表现明显强于权益市场，转债等权指数上涨幅度接近 25%，而同期沪深 300 指 数仅小幅上涨。" ...