Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qualcomm (QCOM.O) [6] Core Insights - Qualcomm's FY26Q1 performance met expectations, but the guidance for FY26Q2 fell short due to adverse impacts from memory shortages and price increases affecting downstream demand [1] - FY26Q1 Non-GAAP revenue was $12.252 billion, a 5% year-over-year increase, with Non-GAAP net profit at $3.781 billion [1] - The guidance for FY26Q2 is projected Non-GAAP revenue of $10.2 to $11 billion, below the consensus estimate of $11.16 billion [1] Summary by Sections QCT Mobile Business - FY26Q1 mobile business revenue was $7.824 billion, up 3% year-over-year, driven by increased shipments of Snapdragon chips [2] - Qualcomm secured a 75% supply share for high-end smartphone chips for Samsung's upcoming series [2] - The guidance for FY26Q2 mobile revenue is approximately $6 billion, with expectations of growth being constrained by memory chip shortages [2] QCT IoT Business - FY26Q1 IoT revenue reached $1.688 billion, a 9% year-over-year increase, primarily due to higher shipments in edge networking and consumer products [3] - The company continues to expand into vertical applications in edge networking and industrial IoT, with new products launched at CES 2026 [3] - The PC segment saw the release of the Snapdragon X2 Plus chip, enhancing performance significantly [3] QCT Automotive Business - FY26Q1 automotive revenue was $1.101 billion, a 15% year-over-year increase, attributed to higher shipments of vehicles equipped with Qualcomm's smart cockpit technology [4] - Qualcomm signed a long-term supply agreement with Volkswagen Group, expanding its supply to brands like Audi and Porsche [4] - The company is collaborating with CARIAD and Bosch to develop autonomous driving systems [4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts GAAP net profits of $11.5 billion, $12.5 billion, and $13 billion for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 respectively, with growth rates of 107.7%, 8.4%, and 4.2% [4] - The current price corresponds to FY2026-2028 P/E ratios of 14X, 13X, and 12X [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yum China (9987.HK) [1] Core Insights - The company reported Q4 2025 revenue of $2.823 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9% (or 7% excluding foreign currency effects), and operating profit of $187 million, up 25% (or 23% excluding foreign currency effects) [5][6] - Same-store sales growth accelerated in Q4 2025, with system sales up 7% year-on-year, and same-store sales up 3% [6] - The company plans to exceed 20,000 stores by 2026, with a net addition of over 1,900 stores, accelerating from 2025 [7] Revenue Performance - Q4 2025 same-store sales growth was driven by KFC and Pizza Hut, with KFC's same-store sales up 3% and Pizza Hut's up 1% [6] - The company expects continued growth in same-store revenue and system sales in 2026, projecting high single-digit growth [6] Store Expansion - In Q4 2025, the company added 587 new stores, bringing the total to 18,101 [7] - The company achieved a net addition of 1,706 stores in 2025, meeting its target of 1,600-1,800 new stores [7] Profitability Improvement - Q4 2025 restaurant profit margin improved to 13.0%, up 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The core operating profit for Q4 2025 was $185 million, a 23% increase year-on-year, driven by operational efficiency and favorable commodity prices [8] New Business Developments - The company made significant progress in new business initiatives, including the expansion of KFC Coffee and KPRO, which contributed to sales growth [9] - New product offerings, such as KFC's spicy chicken and Pizza Hut's handmade thin-crust pizza, attracted younger consumers and drove sales [9] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report raises the net profit forecast for 2026-2027 to $1.027 billion and $1.109 billion, respectively, with an EPS of $2.90 for 2026 [10] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 17x for 2026, indicating strong growth potential for the leading Western fast-food company [10]

2026 年 2 月 5 日 总量研究 一、出海浪潮仍处于上升阶段 2025 年我国对外直接投资规模小幅提升，更多中小企业加入出海行列。政策方 面展现全球化布局拉动外需、促进供给侧改革的意图。 二、哪些行业海外营收大幅增长？ 从一级行业看，轻工制造、家用电器海外营收占比高。电子、机械产业链以及服 务贸易的海外营收同比增长较快。从二级行业来看，电子、机械相关行业海外营 收占比高。电子通信、金融和游戏行业的海外竞争力提升明显。 轻工制造、汽车等对外敞口高的行业，其股价表现相对更优。民营企业对外积极 性持续走高，"十五五"期间民企可能成为海外业务收入的最主要贡献项。 2025 年我国制造业出海进程如何？ ——《见微知著》系列第二十九篇 要点 核心观点： 当前我国制造业出海进程如何？未来哪些行业是出海主力军？人民币升值背景 下出海如何影响出口和投资？本篇报告主要分析了这三方面问题。 三、高海外毛利率是出海的动力 上市公司的海外毛利率较高。一是，海外需求旺盛，出口成为拉动经济增长主要 贡献项。二是，企业加速产能出海，带来产品附加值提升。2025 年上半年，计 算机、医药生物、美容护理、机械设备等行业海外毛利率较高。 海 ...

晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 2026 年 2 月 5 日 【房地产】TOP10 房企开年销售表现相对较好——百强房企销售跟踪（2026 年 1 月） (增持) 1 月 TOP10 房企全口径销售额同比-12%，TOP100 同比-25%，各梯队房企销售表现 分化；全口径/权益口径销售金额同比表现较好的有：中海地产+20.5%/+20.4%、中 国金茂+13.3%/+13.4%。2026 开年《求是》集中刊文，明确改善和稳定房地产预期； 政府直接收购二手旧房促进以旧换新，加快销售去化，地产板块迎来情绪曙光，推荐 招商蛇口、中国金茂等。 公司研究 【石化】实控人首次增持公司股份，彰显未来发展信心——恒力石化（600346.SH） 公告点评(买入) 考虑到炼化行业景气度修复程度不及我们此前预期，因此我们下调公司 2025-2027 年盈利预测，预计公司 2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为 71.72（下调 14%）/90.70 （下调 7%）/103.58（下调 3%）亿元，对应 EPS 分别为 1.02/1.29/1.47 元，公司 新产能逐步投产，依然具备较高成长性，持续实施高分红政策打造价值 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the banking industry, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark index by over 15% in the next 6-12 months [1][29]. Core Insights - The January "opening red" season for loans is expected to be moderate, with stable liquidity conditions. The projected new RMB loans for January are around 5 trillion, with a growth rate of approximately 6.2%, slightly lower than the same period last year [4][5]. - The report anticipates a total social financing (社融) of about 7.5 trillion in January, reflecting a growth rate of around 8.3%, which is consistent with the end of the previous year [9]. - The M1 growth rate is expected to increase, while M2 may see a slight decline, indicating a favorable deposit growth trend [9][10]. Summary by Sections Loan Market - January's new RMB loans are projected at approximately 5 trillion, with a growth rate around 6.2%. The manufacturing PMI has dropped to 49.3%, indicating a contraction in business activity, but banks are expected to maintain strong loan issuance due to seasonal demand [4][5]. - The corporate sector is expected to be the main driver of loan growth, with significant short-term loans and bill financing anticipated. The demand for loans is expected to remain strong despite some pressures from maturing loans [6][7]. Social Financing - The report estimates that social financing will reach about 7.5 trillion in January, which is higher than the previous year's 7 trillion, with a stable growth rate of 8.3% [9]. - Direct financing, including government and corporate bonds, is expected to contribute positively to social financing growth, with a notable increase in net financing from local government bonds [10]. Monetary Conditions - The liquidity in the banking system is expected to remain stable, with the central bank's policies supporting a sufficient liquidity environment. The report notes that the interbank rates have shown less volatility compared to the previous year [12][13]. - The report highlights that the deposit growth is better than expected, with banks managing to retain customer deposits effectively, minimizing the risk of significant outflows [10][11].

2026 年 2 月 4 日 公司研究 实控人首次增持公司股份，彰显未来发展信心 ——恒力石化（600346.SH）公告点评 要点 事件：公司发布《关于实际控制人首次增持暨增持公司股份的进展公告》， 2026 年 2 月 3 日，公司实际控制人之一陈建华先生以自有资金，采取集中竞价交易 方式首次增持公司股份 13,447,369 股，占公司总股本的 0.19%，累计增持金额 为 32,997.02 万元（不含佣金、过户费等交易费用）。 点评： 实控人首次增持公司股份，彰显未来发展信心。公司 2025 年 4 月 9 日发布《关 于实际控制人增持公司股份计划的公告》，实际控制人之一陈建华先生计划自 2025 年 4 月 9 日起 12 个月内，以自有资金或自筹资金通过上海证券交易所交 易系统以集中竞价交易方式增持本公司股份，增持金额不低于人民币 5 亿元，不 超过人民币 10 亿元。2026 年 2 月 3 日，公司实际控制人首次增持公司股份。 公司作为国内领先的民营炼化一体化企业，其实际控制人之一陈建华先生此次增 持未导致公司控制权结构发生变化，公司治理结构保持稳定。自 2025 年 7 月中 下旬以来，随着 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chongqing Beer (600132.SH) [5] Core Views - In 2025, Chongqing Beer achieved operating revenue of 14.72 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.23 billion yuan, up 10.4% year-on-year [1] - The company experienced a slight increase in sales volume of 0.68% in 2025, despite a challenging market environment where the overall beer industry production decreased by 1.1% [1][2] - The fourth quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 1.66 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.2%, and a reduction in net loss compared to the previous year [1][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2025, the company reported a net profit of 1.23 billion yuan, with a decrease in non-recurring net profit by 2.8% to 1.19 billion yuan [1] - The fourth quarter showed a significant improvement in sales and pricing, with sales volume and price per ton increasing by 2.84% and 1.96% respectively compared to the previous year [2] - The company benefited from a favorable scale effect and a legal settlement, which positively impacted its net profit by approximately 19.08 million yuan [2] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that policies promoting service consumption will support the recovery of on-premise consumption, leading to stable growth in beer consumption [3] - The company's strong brand management capabilities are expected to shine through as external pressures ease [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for Chongqing Beer for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 1.23 billion, 1.28 billion, and 1.32 billion yuan respectively, reflecting increases of 3%, 1%, and 1% [3] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be 2.54, 2.64, and 2.73 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 21x for 2025 and 2026, and 20x for 2027 [3][4]

2026 年 2 月 4 日 公司研究 工业 X 射线检测设备龙头，下游高景气度、国产替代趋势双轮驱动 ——日联科技（688531.SH）首次覆盖报告 要点 工业 X 射线检测设备龙头企业。日联科技是国内领先的工业 X 射线智能检测设 备及核心部件供应商，为国家级专精特新"小巨人"。2019–2024 年，公司收 入 CAGR 约 38%，归母净利润 CAGR 约 77%。产品覆盖全球 70+国家和地区， 2025H1 海外收入占比首次超过 10%。 行业：下游应用广泛，需求持续扩容。根据日联科技 2025 年半年报援引沙利文 咨询数据，预计 2025–2030 年全球工业 X 射线检测设备市场规模 CAGR 约 9.9%， 中国市场规模 CAGR 约 10.3%；预计 2030 年该领域全球市场规模有望突破千亿 元，中国市场规模有望突破 300 亿元。 公司：丰富产品线，开展收并购。公司已构建"检测设备+AI 软件+射线源"一 体化产品线，已形成百余款标准化设备。集成电路与电子制造领域，业务已覆盖 头部 PCB/PCBA 客户，市占率位居国内前列。新能源电池方面，公司设备覆盖 动力/储能/消费电池在线与离线 ...

2026 年 2 月 4 日 总量研究 从地方两会看稳增长"路线图" ——2025 年中央经济工作会议精神学习第二篇 作者 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 分析师：刘星辰 执业证书编号：S0930522030001 021-52523880 liuxc@ebscn.com 相关研报 充分挖掘经济潜能，苦练内功应对挑战—— 2025 年中央经济工作会议精神学习 （2025-12-12） 积极有为，实现"十五五"良好开局—— 2025 年 12 月政治局会议精神学习（2025- 12-09） "十五五"高水平对外开放的战略升级—— 《"十五五"规划》系列报告四（2025- 11-19） 理解"十五五"规划的三个定量指标—— 《"十五五"规划》系列报告三（2025- 10-29） 坚持高质量发展，续写奇迹新篇章——二十 届四中全会公报精神学习暨《"十五五"规 划》系列报告二（2025-10-24） "十五五"规划的三条主线、五个猜想—— 《"十五五"规划》系列报告一（2025- 09-28） 巩固经济和资本市场回稳向好势头 ...

2026 年 2 月 4 日 公司盈利预测与估值简表 公司研究 1 月销量承压，静待 AI 应用场景逐步兑现 ——小鹏汽车（XPEV.N）跟踪报告 要点 1 月交付量数据披露：2 月 1 日小鹏汽车披露 1 月交付量数据，1 月小鹏汽车交 付量同比-34.1%/环比-46.6%至 20,011 辆。我们判断，小鹏汽车 1 月销量承压 主要由于补贴政策退坡、新老产品切换导致。 一车双能战略升级，关注四大物理 AI 产品量产落地：1 月 8 日小鹏召开 2026 全球新品发布会，以"AI 驱动全球化出行革新"为核心，1）正式发布四款新车： 2026 款 P7+（纯电+超级增程）、G7 超级增程、2026 款 G6、2026 款 G9，其 中，P7+与 G7 首次引入超级增程版本；2）宣布 2026 年小鹏品牌规划，主要包 含第二代 VLA（实现从视觉信号到动作指令的端到端直接生成，预计 1Q26E 上 车）、Robotaxi（搭载第二代 VLA 并已通过第三方测试机构场地测试，将于 2026 年开启运营）、人形机器人（量产版已完成首台下线测试，将于 2026 年规模量 产）、飞行汽车（将于 2026 年规模量产） ...