2026 年 2 月 2 日 盈利预测、估值与评级：高性能有机颜料价格上涨幅度不及我们此前预期，因此 我们下调公司 2025-2026 年的盈利预测，新增 2027 年盈利预测，我们预计公司 2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为 1.73（下调 22%）/2.23（下调 22%）/2.70 亿 元，折合 EPS 分别为 0.42/0.54/0.65 元。公司是我国有机颜料行业的龙头企业， 我们看好公司未来发展，维持"增持"评级。 风险提示：下游需求不及预期，原材料价格波动，项目建设进度不及预期风险。 公司盈利预测与估值简表 公司研究 拟投资建设 1000 吨 PEEK 项目，加码新材料领域布局 ——百合花（603823.SH）对外投资公告点评 要点 事件：公司发布《关于对外投资的公告》，公司计划总投资不超过 10000 万元 建设"年产 1,000 吨聚醚醚酮（PEEK）材料项目"（以下简称项目）。 点评： 拟投资 1 亿元建设 1000 吨 PEEK 项目，加码新材料领域布局。公司围绕新质生 产力行业的新材料方向进行高端产品布局，拟投资不超过 1 亿元建设"年产 1,000 吨聚醚醚酮（PEEK）材料项目 ...

2026 年 2 月 2 日 公司研究 4Q25 盈利承压，关注高端化+全球化推进 ——长城汽车（601633.SH、2333.HK）2025 年业绩快报点评 要点 2025 年业绩快报披露，4Q25 低于预期：2025 年公司营业收入同比+10.2%至 2,227.9 亿元，归母净利润同比-21.7%至 99.1 亿元，扣非后归母净利润同比 -36.5%至 61.6 亿元；其中，4Q25 公司收入同比+15.5%/环比+13.0%至 692.1 亿元，归母净利润同比-43.5%/环比-44.4%至 12.8 亿元，扣非后归母净利润同 比-49.4%/环比-63.9%至 6.8 亿元。我们测算，2025 年公司扣非后单车盈利同 比-40.8%至 0.47 万元，4Q25 扣非后单车盈利同比-52.1%/环比-68.2%至 0.17 万元。4Q25 盈利环比下降主要受年终奖计提+报废税递延导致。 高端化战略成果显现，品牌价值稳步提升：2025 年公司汽车销量同比+7.3%至 132.4 万辆，新能源汽车销量同比+25.4%至 40.4 万辆（渗透率同比+4.4pcts 至 30.5%）；4Q25 公司汽车销量同 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [4][6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 16 million to 20 million yuan in 2025, marking a turnaround from previous losses [1]. - The recovery in demand for pesticide intermediates has significantly improved the company's performance, particularly through the operational improvements at its subsidiary, Fujian Gaobao, which has reduced its losses substantially [2]. - The company plans to raise 186 million yuan through a private placement to expand its production capacity in the new materials sector, specifically for BPEF and BPF products, which are widely used in various high-tech applications [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Forecasts - The company’s projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 18 million, 75 million, and 110 million yuan respectively, with a notable increase in revenue expected [4][5]. - Revenue is forecasted to grow from 1,576 million yuan in 2025 to 2,129 million yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [5][9]. Profitability and Valuation Metrics - The gross margin is expected to improve from 15.5% in 2025 to 19.1% in 2027, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [11]. - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is projected to decrease from 410 in 2025 to 67 by 2027, suggesting a more favorable valuation as profitability improves [12]. Operational Developments - The company is enhancing its production capabilities to meet the growing demand in the new materials sector, which is expected to drive future growth [3]. - The operational efficiency improvements and strategic adjustments in product structure and sales strategies are anticipated to contribute to double-digit revenue growth in 2025 [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies, including China Giant Glass, Conch Cement, and Oriental Yuhong, while suggesting "Hold" for others like Puyang Refractories and Keren Co. [8] Core Insights - Leading waterproof companies such as Oriental Yuhong and Keshun have raised prices by 5-10% due to significant increases in raw material costs, indicating a potential recovery in industry profitability [4][6] - The real estate sector is showing signs of recovery after a prolonged adjustment period, with expectations of policy support and improved transaction volumes in the second-hand housing market [4][6] - Intel's glass substrate technology has achieved mass production, which could impact the domestic supply chain positively, with recommendations to focus on companies like Kaisheng Technology and Gobika [4][6] Summary by Sections Price Increases in Waterproof Companies - Companies like Oriental Yuhong and Keshun have announced price hikes of 5-10% for their waterproof products, driven by rising costs of acrylic emulsions and other raw materials [4][6] - The waterproof membrane industry has seen its first year-on-year production growth since November 2025, indicating a positive shift in the market [4][6] Company Profit Forecasts and Valuations - The report includes detailed earnings per share (EPS) forecasts and price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for various companies, with notable mentions such as: - Oriental Yuhong: EPS forecast of 0.68 yuan for 2026, with a P/E ratio of 20 [8] - China Giant Glass: EPS forecast of 1.09 yuan for 2026, with a P/E ratio of 17 [8] - Conch Cement: EPS forecast of 2.09 yuan for 2026, with a P/E ratio of 12 [8] Weekly Market Review - The report provides insights into the weekly performance of the construction and building materials sectors, highlighting fluctuations in various indices [10][11] - Specific companies have shown significant weekly gains, such as *ST Lifan with a 47.33% increase, while others like Huamin Co. experienced a 16% decline [19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 21-31.5 million yuan in 2025, marking a turnaround from losses in previous years [1] - The recovery in the prices of photoinitiators and improved performance quarter by quarter are highlighted, with significant price increases for key products such as TPO, 907, and 184, which rose by 14.7%, 18.1%, and 21.2% respectively [2] - The company is enhancing its industry leadership through the trial production of new photoinitiator projects, which will improve product variety and self-sufficiency in upstream intermediates [3] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised upwards, with expected net profits of 31 million, 78 million, and 136 million yuan respectively [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company anticipates a revenue of 1.513 billion yuan in 2025, with a slight growth of 1.64% year-on-year [4] - The gross profit margin is projected to improve to 15.1% in 2025, up from 8.8% in 2023 [10] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to turn positive at 0.19 yuan in 2025, compared to a loss of 0.86 yuan in 2023 [8] Profitability and Valuation - The report indicates a significant improvement in profitability, with a return on equity (ROE) expected to reach 1.2% in 2025, compared to -3.7% in 2023 [10] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 140 in 2025, decreasing to 32 by 2027, indicating a potential for valuation improvement as earnings grow [11] Market Position and Growth - The company is solidifying its market position with new projects entering trial production, which will enhance its capacity and product offerings in the photoinitiator sector [3] - The establishment of the Tianjin Ruiwu Equity Investment Fund is expected to contribute positively to the company's investment income [2]

2026 年 2 月 2 日 总量研究 二级市场价格重返上涨通道，多只商业不动产 REITs 推进中 ——REITs 月度观察（20260101-20260131） 1、 一级市场 截至 2026 年 1 月 31 日，我国公募 REITs 产品数量达 78 只，合计发行规模达 2017.49 亿元（不含扩募）。从底层资产类型来看，截至 2026 年 1 月 31 日， 交通基础设施类发行规模最大，共发行 687.71 亿元，园区基础设施类 REITs 发 行规模次之，为 329.33 亿元。 根据上交所及深交所项目动态披露，截至 2026 年 1 月 31 日，共有 22 只 REITs 处于待上市状态，其中 20 只为首发 REITs，另外 2 只为待扩募 REITs。 2、 二级市场表现 价格走势：2026 年 1 月 1 日-2026 年 1 月 31 日（以下简称"本月"），我国已 上市公募 REITs 的二级市场价格整体呈现波动上行的趋势：中证 REITs（收盘） 和中证 REITs 全收益指数分别收于 809.56 和 1052.42，本月回报率分别为 3.98% 和 4.22%。与其他主流大类 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Apple Inc. (AAPL.O) [1] Core Insights - Apple achieved record revenue of $143.8 billion in FY1Q26, representing a year-over-year increase of 15.7%, significantly exceeding market expectations and the company's previous guidance of 10%-12% growth [4][5] - Net profit reached $42.1 billion, up 15.9% year-over-year, with a basic EPS of $2.85, marking an 18.5% increase [4] - The overall gross margin rose to 48.2%, surpassing the previous guidance of 47%-48% [4] Revenue Performance - iPhone revenue was $85.3 billion, reflecting a 23% year-over-year increase, with strong performance across all regions, validating the robust product cycle of the iPhone 17 series [5] - Service revenue reached $30 billion, a 14% year-over-year increase, setting a new record, with multiple sub-segments like advertising and cloud services also achieving historical highs [5] - Other hardware categories showed mixed results, with Mac revenue declining by 7% due to high base effects from last year's M4 chip launch, while iPad revenue grew by 6% and wearables saw a slight decline of 2% due to supply constraints [5] Guidance and Strategic Initiatives - For FY2Q26, Apple projects total revenue growth of 13%-16%, with service revenue expected to maintain similar growth rates as FY1Q26 [6] - Gross margin guidance is set at 48%-49%, despite acknowledging rising storage costs, indicating strong pricing power and supply chain management capabilities [6] - Apple is deepening its AI strategy, collaborating with Google to develop next-generation foundational models, enhancing user experience with new AI features [6] Profit Forecasts - Based on the strong performance in FY1Q26 and optimistic guidance, the report raises the GAAP net profit forecasts for FY2026 to $121.1 billion, with corresponding EPS estimates of $8.38 [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Apple Inc. (AAPL.O) [1] Core Insights - Apple achieved record revenue and profit in FY1Q26, with revenue reaching $143.8 billion (yoy +15.7%) and net profit at $42.1 billion (yoy +15.9%), surpassing market expectations and previous guidance [4][5] - The overall gross margin increased to 48.2%, exceeding the previous guidance of 47%-48% [4] - The strong performance was driven by a robust recovery in iPhone sales, with iPhone revenue at $85.3 billion (yoy +23%) [5] - Service revenue also reached a record high of $30 billion (yoy +14%), indicating strong user engagement and monetization capabilities [5] - Despite supply chain challenges, the guidance for FY2Q26 remains optimistic, with expected revenue growth of 13%-16% and gross margin guidance of 48%-49% [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY1Q26 revenue was $143.8 billion, net profit was $42.1 billion, and basic EPS was $2.85 [4] - The gross margin for FY1Q26 was 48.2%, reflecting strong pricing power and supply chain management [6] Business Segments - iPhone revenue was $85.3 billion, marking a 23% year-over-year increase [5] - Service revenue reached $30 billion, a 14% increase year-over-year, with multiple sub-segments achieving record highs [5] - Other hardware segments showed mixed results, with Mac revenue declining by 7% and iPad revenue increasing by 6% [5] Future Outlook - The guidance for FY2Q26 includes a revenue growth forecast of 13%-16% and a gross margin of 48%-49% [6] - The company is focusing on AI development, including partnerships with Google for next-generation models and enhancing user experience through new AI features [6][7] - Long-term growth potential is supported by a large active device ecosystem of over 2.5 billion [7]

总量研究 周期主题 ETF 资金净流入规模扩大，国防军工主题基金净值表现不佳 ——基金市场与 ESG 产品周报 20260202 2026 年 2 月 2 日 要点 市场表现综述：大类资产方面，本周（下文如无特殊说明，本周均指代 2025.1.26-2025.1.30）原油价格大涨，国内权益市场指数震荡分化，沪深 300 上涨 0.08%。行业方面，本周各申万一级行业指数多数下跌，石油石 化、通信、煤炭行业涨幅居前，国防军工、电力设备、汽车行业跌幅居前。 基金市场方面，本周权益型基金表现不佳，纯债型基金维持正收益。 基金产品发行情况：本周国内市场新成立基金 47 只，合计发行份额为 482.72 亿份。其中混合型基金 21 只、股票型基金 19 只、FOF 基金 1 只、 债券型基金 4 只、国际(QDII)基金 2 只。全市场新发行基金 45 只，从类型来 看，股票型基金 21 只、混合型基金 15 只、FOF 基金 5 只、债券型基金 2 只、国际(QDII)基金 2 只。 基金产品表现跟踪：长期行业主题基金指数表现来看，本周周期、金融地产 主题基金净值上涨，其余主题基金表现不佳，国防军工主题基金净值显著 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the commercial aerospace sector [6]. Core Insights - SpaceX plans to deploy up to 1 million AI satellites to create the world's first space data center, expanding the demand for commercial aerospace [1][2]. - The new satellites will operate at altitudes of 500km, 1000km, and 2000km, providing large-scale AI inference and data center services to billions of users globally [1]. - The focus of competition in commercial aerospace is shifting from communication services to the development of orbital computing infrastructure [2]. Summary by Sections Satellite Deployment - SpaceX's initiative aims to establish a "space-based computing network" that leverages solar energy and the unique environment of space to handle high-intensity computing tasks, overcoming the limitations faced by terrestrial data centers [2]. Rocket Manufacturing and Launch Capabilities - SpaceX has reduced the cost of launching payloads to approximately $1400-$2000 per kilogram through the regular recovery and reuse of Falcon 9 rocket boosters, with plans to further decrease costs to $100 per kilogram with the next-generation fully reusable Starship [3]. Communication Infrastructure - Inter-satellite laser communication is critical for the SpaceX orbital data center system, facilitating all major data transmission and network routing tasks [4]. Strategic Asset Integration - Elon Musk is considering merging SpaceX with his AI company xAI or Tesla to enhance the space computing layout, potentially allowing SpaceX's orbital data centers to provide significant computing power to xAI [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the rocket sector such as Chaojie Co., Gaohua Technology, and Zhongheng Design, as well as satellite companies like Shaanxi Huada, Shanghai Port, and others [5].