Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: PB-ROE-50 Combination - **Model Construction Idea**: The PB-ROE-50 combination is designed to capture excess returns by selecting stocks with favorable Price-to-Book (PB) and Return on Equity (ROE) characteristics[25] - **Model Construction Process**: The model selects stocks based on PB and ROE metrics, with adjustments for market capitalization and rebalancing on a periodic basis. The detailed construction process is referenced in a prior report[25][26] - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrated significant excess returns across different stock pools during the analyzed period, indicating its effectiveness in identifying profitable investment opportunities[25][26] 2. Model Name: Institutional Research Combination - **Model Construction Idea**: This model leverages the insights from public and private institutional research to identify stocks with potential for excess returns[28] - **Model Construction Process**: The model uses a strategy that tracks stocks selected by public and private institutional research, with adjustments made relative to the CSI 800 index. The methodology is detailed in prior reports[28] - **Model Evaluation**: The model showed strong performance, achieving positive excess returns, which highlights the value of institutional research in stock selection[28][29] 3. Model Name: Block Trade Combination - **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies stocks with high block trade activity and low volatility, which are likely to outperform[32] - **Model Construction Process**: The model is constructed based on the "high transaction, low volatility" principle, using monthly rebalancing. The detailed methodology is outlined in a prior report[32] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures excess returns, demonstrating the informational value of block trade activity[32][33] 4. Model Name: Private Placement Combination - **Model Construction Idea**: This model focuses on stocks involved in private placement events, aiming to capture event-driven excess returns[38] - **Model Construction Process**: The model is constructed by considering factors such as market capitalization, rebalancing cycles, and position control, with the private placement announcement date as the key event. The detailed methodology is provided in a prior report[38] - **Model Evaluation**: The model showed a slight negative excess return during the analyzed period, suggesting limited effectiveness in the current market environment[38][39] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. PB-ROE-50 Combination - Weekly excess return: CSI 500: 0.47%, CSI 800: 1.54%, All-market: 1.59%[25][26] - Year-to-date excess return: CSI 500: 2.06%, CSI 800: 15.14%, All-market: 18.32%[26] 2. Institutional Research Combination - Weekly excess return: Public research: 3.63%, Private research: 3.32%[28][29] - Year-to-date excess return: Public research: 16.50%, Private research: 15.79%[29] 3. Block Trade Combination - Weekly excess return: 2.93%[32][33] - Year-to-date excess return: 39.24%[33] 4. Private Placement Combination - Weekly excess return: -0.01%[38][39] - Year-to-date excess return: -3.70%[39] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Momentum Spring Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures momentum effects by identifying stocks with strong recent performance trends[12][13] - **Factor Construction Process**: The factor is calculated based on recent price movements, adjusted for market and sector effects. The exact formula is not provided in the report[12][13] - **Factor Evaluation**: Demonstrated strong positive returns across multiple stock pools, indicating its effectiveness in capturing momentum effects[12][13] 2. Factor Name: Early Morning Return Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the return performance of stocks during the early trading hours[12][13] - **Factor Construction Process**: The factor is calculated by isolating returns during the early trading hours and adjusting for market and sector influences[12][13] - **Factor Evaluation**: Showed consistent positive returns, highlighting its potential as a predictive factor[12][13] 3. Factor Name: Single Quarter ROA - **Factor Construction Idea**: Focuses on the return on assets (ROA) for a single quarter to identify efficient companies[12][13] - **Factor Construction Process**: The factor is derived from quarterly financial reports, specifically the ratio of net income to total assets, adjusted for market and sector effects[12][13] - **Factor Evaluation**: Demonstrated positive returns, indicating its utility in identifying fundamentally strong companies[12][13] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Momentum Spring Factor - Weekly return: CSI 300: 2.26%, CSI 500: 2.56%, Liquidity 1500: 3.25%[12][13][19] - Monthly return: CSI 300: 3.00%, CSI 500: 0.55%, Liquidity 1500: -0.79%[13][15][19] - Year-to-date return: CSI 300: 8.96%, CSI 500: 5.35%, Liquidity 1500: 9.79%[13][15][19] 2. Early Morning Return Factor - Weekly return: CSI 300: 1.88%, CSI 500: 2.66%, Liquidity 1500: 3.21%[12][13][19] - Monthly return: CSI 300: 1.48%, CSI 500: 1.81%, Liquidity 1500: 0.66%[13][15][19] - Year-to-date return: CSI 300: 4.90%, CSI 500: 4.18%, Liquidity 1500: 11.40%[13][15][19] 3. Single Quarter ROA - Weekly return: CSI 300: 1.90%, CSI 500: -0.90%, Liquidity 1500: 0.68%[12][13][19] - Monthly return: CSI 300: 1.19%, CSI 500: 0.47%, Liquidity 1500: -1.20%[13][15][19] - Year-to-date return: CSI 300: 20.46%, CSI 500: -3.19%, Liquidity 1500: 10.47%[13][15][19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, specifically an "Increase" rating, indicating a projected investment return exceeding the market benchmark by 5% to 15% over the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 2025 was under pressure, with total revenue declining by 36.2% year-on-year and 9.5% quarter-on-quarter to 27.36 billion yuan. The gross margin also decreased by 5.2 percentage points year-on-year to 16.3%. The Non-GAAP net loss attributable to shareholders was 360 million yuan, marking the first quarterly Non-GAAP loss in 2023 [1][2]. - The automotive business revenue fell by 37.4% year-on-year, with sales volume down by 39.0% year-on-year to 93,000 units. The average selling price (ASP) increased by 2.6% year-on-year to 278,000 yuan. The gross margin for the automotive business was 15.5% [2]. - Management indicated that the i6 battery supply will adopt a dual-supplier model starting in November, with production capacity expected to reach 20,000 units by early 2026. The company is also focusing on improving product capabilities and operational efficiency through internal adjustments [3]. Summary by Sections Q3 2025 Performance - Total revenue for Q3 2025 was 27.36 billion yuan, down 36.2% year-on-year and 9.5% quarter-on-quarter. Gross margin decreased to 16.3%, with a Non-GAAP net loss of 360 million yuan [1]. Automotive Business - Revenue from the automotive segment was 25.87 billion yuan, a decline of 37.4% year-on-year. Sales volume dropped to 93,000 units, with an ASP of 278,000 yuan. The gross margin for this segment was 15.5% [2]. Future Outlook - The company expects continued pressure on fundamentals in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 due to policy fluctuations and intensified competition. However, management's shift back to a startup management model and advancements in self-developed technologies are anticipated to enhance product capabilities and operational efficiency [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future returns exceeding market benchmarks by over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4][13]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of $25.44 million in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 72% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19%. The gross margin improved by 9 percentage points year-on-year and 2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 18% [1]. - The Robotaxi service revenue saw significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 89% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 339%, reaching $6.69 million. The passenger fare revenue grew by over 200% year-on-year [2]. - The company has established a strong operational presence in major cities and is expected to expand its Robotaxi fleet to over 3,000 vehicles by 2026, with a focus on cost reduction through new vehicle models [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported a Non-GAAP net loss of $54.72 million, which is an increase of 33% year-on-year and 19% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The total revenue forecast for 2025 is approximately $87 million, with a projected growth rate of 16.6% [5]. Business Segments - The Robotruck service revenue increased by 9% year-on-year and 7% quarter-on-quarter to $10.18 million, while the technology licensing and service application revenue surged by 355% year-on-year but decreased by 18% quarter-on-quarter to $8.57 million [2]. - The company has a cash balance of approximately $4.184 billion, bolstered by an additional $6 billion from its IPO [2]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has achieved profitability on a per-vehicle basis for its seventh-generation Robotaxi in Guangzhou and aims to complete its target fleet size of 1,000 vehicles ahead of schedule [3]. - The management emphasizes the importance of technological advancements and strategic partnerships to maintain a competitive edge in the autonomous driving market [3].

"现金奶牛"+分红稳健，服务消费空间广阔 ——房地产行业（物业服务）2026年度投资策略 作者 分析师：何缅南 执业证书编号：S0930518060006 分析师：韦勇强 执业证书编号：S0930524070010 2025年11月27日 核心观点 1、政策友好：2025年以来，物业行业多次获得顶层政策大力支持，"十五五"规划建议明确提出建设安全舒适绿色智慧的"好房子"，实施房屋品质提 升工程和物业服务质量提升行动；中央城市工作会议要求大力发展生活性服务业；国务院多次发文鼓励社区生活服务消费，推行"社区+物业+养老服务"、 加快配齐购物、餐饮、家政、维修等社区居民服务网点等，物业服务行业政策面友好。 2、行业发展：物业行业迈入发展新阶段，行业呈现五大发展趋势：地产销售分化加剧，物管项目或"量缩价升"；独立发展能力提升，"服务消费"属 性日渐凸显；老龄化进程加快，"物业+养老"迎来发展黄金期；推进城中村改造，"物管进村"迎重要发展机遇；"十五五"好物业需求增加，"优质 优价"时代将至。同时，面对新形势，物业企业积极调整经营策略：撤场低盈利项目，保障利润率与现金流；降低地产关联敞口，提升抗周期波动能力； 社区增值 ...

Market Overview - In November, the A-share market experienced a general decline, with the STAR Market 50 index dropping the most by 7.1%, while the Shanghai 50 index fell the least by 1.3%. Other major indices such as CSI 300, ChiNext, and CSI 1000 saw declines of -2.7%, -4.5%, and -3.4% respectively. The performance across industries showed significant divergence, with sectors like comprehensive services, banking, and media leading in gains [1][8][10] - The Hong Kong stock market also showed a volatile trend in November, influenced by fluctuations in the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations and increasing concerns over the AI bubble. As of November 26, 2025, the Hang Seng Hong Kong 35 index rose by 1.1%, while the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index saw minimal changes of 0.1% and -0.1%, respectively. The Hang Seng Technology Index dropped by 4.9% [1][10][11] A-share Insights - The market is believed to still be in a bull phase, but may enter a period of wide fluctuations in the short term. Compared to previous bull markets, there remains considerable room for index growth, but the emphasis on a "slow bull" policy may prioritize the duration of the bull market over its magnitude. Short-term catalysts appear weak, leading to a potential focus on defensive and consumer sectors, while TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors are recommended for mid-term attention [2][13][14][16][19] - In the context of market fluctuations, defensive sectors such as banking, utilities, and coal, along with consumer sectors like food and beverage, are highlighted as potential areas for investment. Historical trends suggest that previously lagging sectors may perform better during periods of market turbulence [16][17] Hong Kong Market Insights - The outlook for the Hong Kong market remains positive, with expectations of continued upward movement due to strong overall profitability and relatively low valuations. The "dumbbell" strategy is recommended, focusing on technology growth and high dividend stocks. Key areas of interest include domestic policies supporting self-sufficiency in chips and high-end manufacturing, as well as independent internet technology companies [3][21][24] - The report emphasizes the importance of high dividend, low volatility strategies, particularly in sectors such as telecommunications, utilities, and banking, which can provide stable returns [21][24] Stock Recommendations - For December 2025, the A-share stock selection includes: Sunlord Electronics, Zhongji Xuchuang, Huayou Cobalt, Sinopec, PetroChina, Zhengguang Co., Haier Smart Home, Hengli Hydraulic, Hangcha Group, and Goldwind Technology [26][27] - The recommended stocks for the Hong Kong market include: Tencent Holdings, China Mobile, China Tower, CNOOC Services, Huiju Technology, Sinopec Engineering, and AIA Group [30][31]

2025 年 11 月 27 日 总量研究 作者 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 分析师：刘星辰 执业证书编号：S0930522030001 021-52523880 liuxc@ebscn.com 相关研报 利润率改善驱动企业利润加速修复——2025 年9月工业企业盈利数据点评（2025-10-27） 8 月工业企业利润缘何高增？——2025 年 8 月工业企业盈利数据点评（2025-09-27） "反内卷"推动制造业盈利好转——2025 年 7 月工业企业盈利数据点评（2025-08-27） 企业利润继续承压，亟待"反内卷"政策提 振——2025 年 6 月工业企业盈利数据点评 （2025-07-27） 10 月盈利增速再次转负，需要担心吗？ ——2025 年 10 月工业企业盈利数据点评 工业企业利润增速缘何回落？——2025 年 5 月工业企业盈利数据点评（2025-06-27） 中游制造业支撑利润增长——2025年4月工 业企业盈利数据点评（2025-05-27） 工业企业盈利恢复向好——2025年3月工业 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NIO, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance over the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Insights - NIO's total revenue for Q3 2025 increased by 16.7% year-on-year and 14.7% quarter-on-quarter, reaching 21.79 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 13.9% [1][2]. - The company is expected to turn profitable in Q4 2025, with management guiding for a delivery volume of 120,000 to 125,000 vehicles and a gross margin of 18% [2][4]. - The introduction of new models and expansion into international markets, along with a joint venture for chip supply, may create new profit models for NIO [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, NIO's vehicle deliveries rose by 40.8% year-on-year and 20.8% quarter-on-quarter to 87,000 units, with automotive revenue increasing by 15.0% year-on-year to 19.20 billion RMB [2]. - Non-GAAP net loss narrowed by 37.3% year-on-year to 2.76 billion RMB [1][2]. Cost Management - R&D expense ratio decreased by 6.6 percentage points year-on-year to 8.9%, while SG&A expense ratio fell by 2.8 percentage points to 18.0% [2]. Future Projections - The report projects a Non-GAAP net loss of approximately 12.8 billion RMB for 2025, with expectations of a return to profitability in 2026 with a net profit of 266 million RMB [4][5]. - Revenue is expected to grow significantly, with a forecast of 84.35 billion RMB for 2025 and 132.83 billion RMB for 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 28.3% and 57.5% respectively [5][9]. Market Positioning - NIO is set to launch three new mid-to-large SUVs in 2026, which may enhance its market presence and sales performance [3]. - The company is also expanding its international footprint through partnerships and new product offerings, which could further drive growth [3].

2025 年 11 月 27 日 公司研究 25Q3 盈利能力持续增长，国际业务与酒管业务表现亮眼 ——同程旅行（0780.HK）2025 年三季度业绩点评 要点 事件：公司发布 25Q3 业绩公告，25Q3 实现营收 55.09 亿元，同比+10.4%；实 现经调整净利润 10.60 亿元，同比+16.5%；经调整净利润率 19.2%，同比 +1.0pcts。 点评： 25Q3 核心 OTA 业务稳健增长，国际业务与酒店管理业务表现亮眼：25Q3 公司 核心 OTA 业务营收达到 46.09 亿元，同比+14.9%。分业务板块：1）25Q3 住宿 预订营收达到 15.79 亿元，同比+14.7%，主要系暑期旺季需求稳健，日均间夜 量创历史新高，同时公司重点满足用户对高品质酒店的需求，推动了平台上高品 质酒店预订量同比提升，ADR 亦持续改善。2）25Q3 交通票务营收达到 22.09 亿元，同比+9.0%。主要系公司持续丰富增值产品与服务，且国际机票业务保持 快速增长（25Q3 国际机票业务营收占交通票务总收入比例达 6%，同比提升 2.0pcts）。3）25Q3 其他业务营收达到 8.21 亿元，同比+3 ...

Retail Data Overview - In September 2025, U.S. retail sales increased by 0.2% month-on-month, below the expected 0.4% and down from the previous 0.6%[2] - Core retail sales (excluding autos and gas) rose by 0.3%, matching expectations but revised down from a previous 0.6%[2] Market Reaction - Following the retail data release, the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq indices rose by 1.43%, 0.91%, and 0.67% respectively[3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 3 basis points to 4.01%, while the 2-year yield also decreased by 3 basis points to 3.43%[3] Consumer Sentiment and Spending - Consumer confidence index dropped from 58.2 to 55.1 in September, indicating reduced consumer spending willingness[7] - Non-essential spending decreased in categories such as non-store retail (-0.7%), sports and hobbies (-2.5%), and clothing (-0.7%)[5][9] Economic Outlook - The report suggests that the combination of tariff policies and government shutdown risks has negatively impacted consumer spending capacity[4] - Despite the weak September data, the potential for a December interest rate cut remains uncertain, with a 50% probability forecasted[4][12] Future Consumption Trends - The fourth quarter is traditionally a peak consumption season in the U.S., with events like Thanksgiving and Christmas expected to boost demand[8] - The easing of trade tensions and the resumption of government operations are anticipated to improve consumer sentiment moving forward[8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [6]. Core Insights - The company reported significant revenue growth of 144% year-on-year, with total revenue reaching 171 million RMB in Q3 2025. Product revenue surged by 429% to 79 million RMB, driven by increased sales of Robotaxi and Robobus. Service revenue also grew by 67% to 92 million RMB, primarily due to smart data and driver assistance operational support services [1][2]. - The Robotaxi-related business saw a remarkable revenue increase of 761% year-on-year, amounting to 35.3 million RMB [1][2]. - The company's gross profit for Q3 2025 was 56 million RMB, reflecting a substantial increase of 1133.55% year-on-year, with a gross margin improvement of 26.41 percentage points to 32.93% [1]. - The net loss narrowed by 70.53% year-on-year to 307 million RMB [1]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are set at 587 million RMB, 1.13 billion RMB, and 2.02 billion RMB for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 62.4%, 92.8%, and 78.4% [5][9]. - The company anticipates achieving single-vehicle breakeven in Abu Dhabi as it expands its fleet to over 500 vehicles by 2026 [3]. Business Expansion and Operations - The company has obtained autonomous operation licenses in eight countries, with a Robotaxi fleet nearing 750 vehicles. It has commenced pure unmanned commercial operations in Abu Dhabi, collaborating with Uber and TXAI [2][3]. - The company is actively expanding its operations in the Middle East, particularly in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Riyadh, where it currently operates over 100 Robotaxis [3]. Financial Metrics - The company’s financial metrics indicate a projected net loss of 1.55 billion RMB for FY2025, with an expected EPS of -1.5 RMB [5][9]. - The P/S ratio is forecasted to decrease from 33 in FY2025 to 10 in FY2027, reflecting anticipated revenue growth and improved market positioning [5].