- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors related to quantitative analysis[1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53][54][55][56][57][58][59][60][61][62][63][64][65][66][67][68][69][70][71][72][73][74][75][76][77][78][79][80][81][82][83][84][85][86][87][88][89]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the copper industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The copper market is expected to remain tight in 2026, supporting upward price movement. As of January 16, 2026, SHFE copper closed at 100,770 CNY/ton, down 0.63% from January 9, while LME copper closed at 12,803 USD/ton, down 1.50% [1] - The report highlights that the market has largely priced in the Federal Reserve's decision not to cut interest rates in January 2026 [1] - The report anticipates that supply constraints and improving demand will lead to further increases in copper prices [4] Summary by Sections Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 17.2% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory rose by 4.6% [2] - As of January 16, 2026, global inventory across the three major exchanges reached 900,000 tons, up 7.7% from January 9 [2] Supply - The TC spot price reached a historical low of -46.6 USD/ton [3] - Domestic copper concentrate production in October 2025 was 130,000 tons, down 8.1% month-on-month and 12.1% year-on-year [2] - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper decreased by 1,010 CNY/ton, indicating tighter scrap supply [2][55] Demand - The cable manufacturing industry's operating rate decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 55.99% [3] - The report notes that cable production accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand [3] - Air conditioning production is projected to see a year-on-year increase of 11% in January 2026, followed by declines of 11.4% and 2.4% in February and March, respectively [3][95] Futures - SHFE copper active contract positions increased by 24% week-on-week, with a total of 226,000 contracts as of January 16, 2026 [4] - COMEX non-commercial net long positions decreased by 7.6% week-on-week [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in Zijin Mining, Western Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Jincheng Mining, while keeping an eye on Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4]

Strategy Overview - The report suggests that the market may experience fluctuations, and it is advisable to maintain a steady approach before the Spring Festival. Structural interest rate cuts are expected to support economic recovery, leading to improved economic data in the first quarter. However, the market is unlikely to sustain its previous rapid growth, and a shift towards a more stable and oscillating market is anticipated. Post-Spring Festival, a new upward momentum is expected [1] Key Industries Computer - AI application hype is transitioning from peak excitement to a more rational phase. Focus should be on large-cap stocks with practical application cases and positive earnings expectations. Three major opportunities in China's AI applications are identified: deepening industrial applications, overseas expansion, and hardware and algorithm restructuring [2] Electric New Energy - In the energy storage and lithium battery upstream sector, investment priorities are outlined for lithium carbonate, lithium hexafluorophosphate, and other materials. AI power demand remains strong, and the hydrogen and ammonia sector is expected to receive more investment during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The State Grid plans to invest 4 trillion yuan in fixed assets during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a focus on ultra-high voltage and microgrid investments [2] Nonferrous Metals - The report is optimistic about gold, copper, aluminum, lithium, and tin due to the transition towards a metal-intensive energy landscape. Gold prices are expected to rise due to the interest rate cycle and weakened dollar credit. Copper prices are projected to increase to $14,000 per ton due to supply tightness and demand from data centers and energy storage [2] Chemical Industry - The chemical sector is moving towards "intelligent manufacturing" driven by AI policies. Companies are adopting various paths to implement AI in manufacturing, including self-developed models and partnerships with AI startups. Key companies in this sector are highlighted for their potential in leveraging AI for new materials and fine chemicals [2] High-end Manufacturing - The report suggests focusing on the robotics sector and high-demand PCB and liquid cooling equipment due to short-term investment direction shifts. The anticipated rollout of Tesla's Optimus V3 in Q1 2026 is expected to create investment opportunities in the supply chain [2] Automotive - The automotive market in 2026 is expected to be driven by policy support, with a slight decline in domestic retail sales of passenger vehicles. However, the export of new energy vehicles is projected to maintain rapid growth. Structural investment opportunities in auto parts are recommended [2] Financial Sector - The insurance sector is expected to perform well due to a favorable liability side and high equity market exposure. The banking sector is anticipated to benefit from policies aimed at promoting consumption and investment [2] Real Estate - The report indicates a significant decline in new home transaction volumes in major cities, with a slight increase in average prices. Leading state-owned enterprises are expected to benefit from improved competitive structures [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and petrochemical industry [5] Core Views - Geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran, have driven significant fluctuations in oil prices, providing a favorable backdrop for oil price recovery [1] - OPEC+ is expected to cautiously increase production in 2026, which may help alleviate the oversupply situation in the oil market [2] - Global oil demand is projected to improve, with the chemical raw material demand expected to dominate the growth in 2026 [3] - The report expresses a positive long-term outlook for major Chinese oil companies and the oil service sector, emphasizing their resilience during price fluctuations [4] Summary by Sections Oil Supply and Demand - OPEC forecasts a demand increase of 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026, with a cautious production increase expected to improve the supply-demand balance [2] - The IEA has raised its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 860,000 barrels per day, attributing this to improved macroeconomic conditions [3] Price Trends - As of January 16, 2026, Brent and WTI crude oil futures closed at $64.20 and $59.22 per barrel, reflecting increases of 1.9% and 0.7% respectively from the previous week [1] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on major Chinese oil companies, including China National Petroleum Corporation, Sinopec, and CNOOC, as well as their associated oil service engineering firms [4]

2026 年 1 月 18 日 总量研究 市场或转为震荡上行 ——金融工程市场跟踪周报 20260118 要点 本周市场核心观点： 本周（2026.01.12-2026.01.16，下同）市场涨跌分化，成长风格指数震荡收涨， 红利风格指数表现垫后。1 月 14 日中午，经证监会批准，沪深北交易所发布通 知调整融资保证金比例，当日下午市场表现急转直下，指数出现回调。 市场情绪方面，当前主要宽基指数量能仍处高景气区间，量能观点仍积极；主要 宽基指数及宽基指数 ETF 成交量 PCR 震荡回升，衍生品投资者交易情绪小幅降 温。后市或从趋势性上行转向震荡上行，中长线持续看好"红利+科技"配置主 线，短线科技或仍占优。 本周市场各指数涨跌不一，上证综指下跌 0.45%，上证 50 下跌 1.74%，沪深 300 下跌 0.57%，中证 500 上涨 2.18%，中证 1000 上涨 1.27%，创业板指上 涨 1.00%，北证 50 指数上涨 1.58%。 截至 2026 年 1 月 16 日，宽基指数来看，中证 500、中证 1000、创业板指处于 估值分位数"适中"等级，上证指数、上证 50、沪深 300 处于估值 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Insights - The company plans to acquire 51% of the equity in HaiRite Engineering Plastics Co., Ltd. for a cash consideration of 12.8826 million yuan, which will make HaiRite a subsidiary of the company [2]. - The acquisition aims to extend the company's business layout from upstream fluoroketones to downstream PAEK, enhancing its service capabilities for PAEK's entire industry chain and exploring new growth points [2]. - HaiRite specializes in the synthesis and modification of PEEK and PAEK specialty resins, with an annual production capacity of over 200 tons of high-quality PEEK resin [2][3]. Financial Projections - The projected revenues and net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are as follows: - 2025: Revenue of 790 million yuan, net profit of 79 million yuan, EPS of 0.45 yuan per share - 2026: Revenue of 850 million yuan, net profit of 85 million yuan, EPS of 0.49 yuan per share - 2027: Revenue of 1 billion yuan, net profit of 100 million yuan, EPS of 0.57 yuan per share [4][5]. - The company’s revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of approximately 9.94% from 2025 to 2026 and 13.10% from 2026 to 2027 [5]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides the following valuation metrics for the company: - P/E ratio for 2025 is projected at 110, decreasing to 86 by 2027 - P/B ratio for 2025 is projected at 7.1, decreasing to 6.4 by 2027 [5][13].

Group 1 - The report suggests that investors should maintain a steady allocation strategy before the Spring Festival, anticipating the release of new momentum after the holiday [3][21] - The report highlights that the A-share market experienced a narrow fluctuation, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly declining while the ChiNext and other indices showed gains [1][11] - The report indicates that the current valuation levels of the Sci-Tech 50 and the Wind All A indices are relatively high, with their PE(TTM) percentile ranks exceeding 90% as of January 16, 2026 [1][12] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the electronic, power equipment, and non-ferrous metals industries, which are expected to perform well in the upcoming market conditions [3][32] - The report notes that if the market style leans towards growth, the top-scoring industries in the five-dimensional industry comparison framework include electronics, power equipment, and communication [3][32] - In a defensive market style scenario, the top industries include non-bank financials, electronics, and power equipment, indicating a similarity in high-scoring industries across both growth and defensive styles [3][32] Group 3 - The report continues to focus on the commercial aerospace sector, which has shown signs of adjustment after a strong performance, suggesting that the sector may transition to a phase of consolidation [4][33] - The report warns of potential short-term profit-taking pressures in the commercial aerospace sector due to its previous high cumulative gains, but it remains optimistic about long-term growth driven by favorable industry policies [4][33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the commitment of the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) to build a world-class energy group with distinct marine characteristics during the "14th Five-Year Plan" and outlines the strategic direction for the "15th Five-Year Plan" [4][5] - CNOOC aims to enhance its energy security capabilities, improve operational efficiency, and foster innovation while addressing challenges posed by external market conditions [4][6] - The company plans to focus on high-quality development, technological innovation, and digital transformation to strengthen its core competitiveness and contribute to national energy security [5][6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - CNOOC has established a comprehensive marine energy development system, covering conventional oil and gas, deepwater oil and gas, LNG, and offshore wind power, positioning itself as a leader in marine energy development in China [8] Strategic Goals for the "15th Five-Year Plan" - CNOOC will focus on eight key areas: enhancing oil and gas exploration and production, refining and chemical industries, sales and trade of oil and gas products, strategic development of "electricity-hydrogen-carbon" businesses, exploration of marine mineral resources, improving technical service capabilities, enhancing financial service capabilities, and boosting technological innovation [6][7] Performance and Financial Outlook - CNOOC's oil production is projected to grow at a CAGR of 8.0% from 2021 to 2024, while natural gas production is expected to grow at a CAGR of 10.5% [9] - The company has shown resilience in performance during periods of declining oil prices, with significant improvements in free cash flow exceeding 100 billion yuan from 2022 to 2023 [9] - CNOOC plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 45% from 2025 to 2027, highlighting its commitment to returning value to investors [9] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on CNOOC and its subsidiaries, including CNOOC Oilfield Services, CNOOC Engineering, and CNOOC Development, due to their integrated advantages across the oil and gas value chain and strong growth potential [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry [6] Core Insights - The integration of "AI+" in the chemical industry is being driven by national policies aimed at enhancing quality and efficiency through advanced technologies like large models and digital twins [1][2] - The global small nucleic acid drug market is experiencing rapid growth, with projections indicating a market size exceeding $15 billion by 2026, driven by technological breakthroughs and commercialization [3][33] - Key players like Bluestar Technology and Lianhua Technology are leading breakthroughs in small nucleic acid production and CDMO services, respectively [4][36] Summary by Sections AI Integration in Chemical Manufacturing - The chemical industry is advancing towards large-scale application of "AI+" through three main pathways: self-developed large models by leading companies, collaboration with third-party platforms, and investment in AI startups [2][27] - Major companies such as China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation are embedding AI into core business processes to enhance operational efficiency [2][27] Small Nucleic Acid Drug Market - The small nucleic acid drug market has grown from $0.1 million in 2016 to $3.25 billion in 2021, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 217.8% [3][33] - The market is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with a forecasted CAGR of 35% from 2020 to 2025 [3][33] Key Players and Innovations - Bluestar Technology has established a comprehensive technology platform for the synthesis and purification of small nucleic acids, making it one of only two global suppliers with such capabilities [4][34] - Lianhua Technology is expanding its CDMO services for small nucleic acids, achieving significant progress in international market collaborations [4][36] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the chemical sector that leverage data for efficiency gains, such as China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and Wanhu Chemical [5][32] - In the small nucleic acid sector, attention is drawn to Bluestar Technology and Lianhua Technology for their strategic positions in the market [5][37]

2026 年 1 月 17 日 要点 一、近期《求是》集中刊文聚焦房地产和城市更新，改善和稳定楼市预期。 1）1 月 2 日，《求是》杂志刊文《改善和稳定房地产市场预期》，提出"房地 产带有显著的金融资产属性…加强预期管理对稳定房地产市场具有特殊重要 性", "政策要一次性给足，不能采取添油战术，导致市场与政策陷入博弈状态"。 2）1 月 15 日，《求是》杂志刊发习近平总书记《在中央城市工作会议上的讲话》， 提出"我国城镇化正从快速增长期转向稳定发展期，城市发展正从大规模增量扩 张阶段转向存量提质增效为主的阶段"，"以坚持城市内涵式发展为主线……大 力推动城市结构优化、动能转换、品质提升"。同日另一刊文《现代化人民城市 怎么建》提出"实施存量更新、激活存量资源潜力将成为带动增量投资、拓宽收 入来源、提升资产价值的重要途径，不仅为进一步拉动内需提供重要支撑，也必 将为城市高质量发展注入新动能"。 3）1 月 16 日，《求是》杂志刊文《高质量推进城市更新》，提出"城市更新是 稳投资、促消费的关键载体"，"十五五"期间，实施城镇老旧小区改造、老旧 街区改造、老旧厂房改造、城市基础设施更新改造等城市更新重点任务， ...