事件： 1 月 30 日，国家发改委、国家能源局发布《关于完善发电侧容量电价机 制的通知》（下文简称《通知》）。 逐句解读储能容量电价政策：对标煤电、看重顶峰能力、进行清单制管理。 2026 年 2 月 1 日 行业研究 储能容量电价政策发布，推动储能行业有序发展 ——碳中和领域动态追踪（一百七十一） 要点 【1】对服务于电力系统安全运行、未参与配储的电网侧独立新型储能电站，各 地可给予容量电价： 解读：明确容量电价对象为"独立储能"，且权责下沉到地方。 【2】容量电价水平以当地煤电容量电价标准为基础，根据顶峰能力按一定比例 折算（折算比例为满功率连续放电时长除以全年最长净负荷高峰持续时长，最高 不超过 1），并考虑电力市场建设进展、电力系统需求等因素确定。 解读：（1）《通知》中已明确，将通过容量电价回收煤电机组固定成本的比例提 升至不低于 50%，即各省煤电容量电价最低为 165 元/kW。（2）将"顶峰能力" 视为补偿的核心依据。计算方式为满功率连续放电时长（即配储时长）除以全年 最长净负荷高峰持续时长。此前，甘肃发布过类似指标，系统净负荷高峰持续时 长暂定为 6 小时。按此折算，2h 储能系统对应 5 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Overweight" for the uranium industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [4]. Core Insights - Uranium prices have increased significantly, reaching $98 per pound as of January 28, 2026, which is a 29% rise compared to December 24, 2025. This increase is attributed to strong demand for uranium, highlighted by the launch of a $2 billion trust by SPUT and the restart of the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant in Japan [1]. - The global supply of natural uranium is expected to remain tight, particularly due to Kazakhstan's significant production cuts planned for 2026, where the state-owned company Kazatomprom will reduce output by approximately 10% [2]. - The United States and China are the largest consumers of uranium, with demand projected to rise to 67,500 tons in 2024, an 8% increase from 2021. However, their domestic production is minimal, accounting for only 2.7% and 0.4% of global production, respectively [2]. - China is anticipated to be a major driver of future nuclear power demand, with projections indicating that by 2030, it will have the largest installed nuclear capacity globally. By 2035, nuclear power is expected to constitute 10% of China's energy mix [3]. - The U.S. is considering expanding its strategic uranium reserves to reduce reliance on Russian supplies, which may further support uranium prices [3]. Summary by Sections Uranium Price Trends - As of January 28, 2026, uranium futures prices have risen to $98 per pound, marking a 29% increase from late December 2025 [1]. Supply Dynamics - Kazakhstan, which holds 13% of global uranium resources, produced 43% of the world's uranium output, but its mining operations are not sustainable. The largest producer, Kazatomprom, plans to cut production by 10% in 2026 [2]. Demand Outlook - The global demand for uranium is expected to grow, with the U.S. and China leading consumption. In 2024, U.S. demand is projected at 18,100 tons, while China's demand is expected to reach 13,100 tons [2]. Future Projections - By 2050, global nuclear power capacity is predicted to reach 2.6 times the levels of 2024, with China being a key contributor to this growth [3].

2026 年 2 月 1 日 行业研究 地缘政治不确定性驱动油价上行，坚定看好石化板块景气度 ——石油化工行业周报第 438 期（20260126—20260201） 要点 地缘局势紧张抬升油价，预计 26 年油价或在 60-80 美元/桶区间宽幅震荡。 本周伊朗地缘局势紧张程度加剧，原油的地缘政治风险溢价上升，油价上涨。 截至 2026 年 1 月 30 日，布伦特、WTI 原油期货价格分别报收 69.83、65.74 美元/桶，较上周收盘分别上涨 6.7%、7.3%。全球局势持续动荡，地缘政治 的不确定性有望为油价景气奠定基础。此外，考虑到：（1）美国页岩油边际 成本高企，25Q1 调查边际成本约为 65 美元/桶，有望成为原油供给端边际减 量；（2）OPEC+于 26Q1 暂缓增产，体现其平衡油价诉求，长期来看 OPEC+ 各国财政依赖原油销售收入，中高油价诉求有望持续；（3）26 年原油需求预 期向好，IEA 预计 2026 年全球原油需求增长 93 万桶/日，高于 2025 年的 85 万桶/日。我们认为油价未来将在 60-80 美元区间宽幅震荡，油价中高位运行 有望为石化板块景气奠定基础。 全球深 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Volume Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses volume-based timing signals to assess market sentiment and provide trading signals[23] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model evaluates the volume timing signals of major broad-based indices - Signals are categorized as "cautious" or "optimistic" based on volume trends - As of January 30, 2026, all major indices (e.g., SSE Composite Index, CSI 300, etc.) showed "cautious" volume timing signals[24] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a straightforward approach to gauge market sentiment but may lack granularity in capturing nuanced market dynamics[23][24] 2. Model Name: Momentum Sentiment Indicator - **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies market sentiment by analyzing the proportion of stocks with positive returns in the CSI 300 Index over a specific period[24] - **Model Construction Process**: - The indicator is calculated as: $ \text{CSI 300 N-day Upward Stock Proportion} = \frac{\text{Number of CSI 300 stocks with positive returns over N days}}{\text{Total number of CSI 300 stocks}} $ - The indicator is smoothed using two moving averages with different window periods (N1 = 50, N2 = 35) to create a "fast line" and a "slow line" - A buy signal is generated when the fast line exceeds the slow line, and a neutral signal is generated when the fast line falls below the slow line[26][28] - **Model Evaluation**: The indicator is effective in capturing upward market opportunities but may fail to predict downturns accurately. It also tends to miss gains during prolonged market exuberance[25] 3. Model Name: Moving Average Sentiment Indicator - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses an eight-moving-average system to assess the trend state of the CSI 300 Index and generate trading signals[32] - **Model Construction Process**: - Calculate the eight moving averages of the CSI 300 Index closing price with parameters: 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, and 233 - Assign values to the indicator based on the number of moving averages the current price exceeds: - If the price exceeds more than five moving averages, the sentiment is bullish - Generate a buy signal when the current price exceeds five moving averages[36] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a clear framework for trend analysis but may oversimplify complex market dynamics[36] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Volume Timing Model - All major indices (e.g., SSE Composite Index, CSI 300, CSI 500, etc.) showed "cautious" volume timing signals as of January 30, 2026[24] 2. Momentum Sentiment Indicator - The CSI 300 N-day upward stock proportion indicator was above 60% as of January 30, 2026, indicating high market sentiment[25] - The fast line was above the slow line, suggesting a bullish outlook for the CSI 300 Index[26] 3. Moving Average Sentiment Indicator - The CSI 300 Index was in a "sentiment prosperity zone" as of January 30, 2026, indicating a bullish sentiment[36] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Cross-sectional Volatility - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the dispersion of returns among index constituents to assess the Alpha environment[37] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the cross-sectional volatility of index constituents (e.g., CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000) - Compare the recent quarter's average volatility to historical percentiles to evaluate the Alpha environment[38] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively captures short-term Alpha opportunities but may not fully reflect long-term trends[37] 2. Factor Name: Time-series Volatility - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the volatility of index constituents over time to assess the Alpha environment[38] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the time-series volatility of index constituents (e.g., CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000) - Compare the recent quarter's average volatility to historical percentiles to evaluate the Alpha environment[41] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor provides insights into market stability but may be less effective in highly volatile markets[38] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Cross-sectional Volatility - CSI 300: Recent quarter average volatility at 2.14%, in the 69.55th percentile of the past two years[38] - CSI 500: Recent quarter average volatility at 2.45%, in the 50.79th percentile of the past two years[38] - CSI 1000: Recent quarter average volatility at 2.61%, in the 66.93rd percentile of the past two years[38] 2. Time-series Volatility - CSI 300: Recent quarter average volatility at 0.96%, in the 57.20th percentile of the past two years[41] - CSI 500: Recent quarter average volatility at 1.22%, in the 50.79th percentile of the past two years[41] - CSI 1000: Recent quarter average volatility at 1.17%, in the 64.94th percentile of the past two years[41]

- The momentum factor and profitability factor both achieved positive returns of 0.51% in the overall market stock pool this week, indicating a momentum effect in the market[1][18] - The Beta factor and liquidity factor recorded negative returns of -0.81% and -0.41%, respectively, while other style factors showed average performance[1][18] - In the CSI 300 stock pool, the best-performing factors this week were the P/E ratio factor (1.70%), net profit margin TTM (1.03%), and operating profit margin TTM (1.02%)[1][12] - The worst-performing factors in the CSI 300 stock pool were the post-morning return factor (-3.58%), momentum spring factor (-3.50%), and 5-day reversal factor (-2.98%)[1][12] - In the CSI 500 stock pool, the best-performing factors this week were the inverse P/S ratio TTM (3.25%), inverse P/E ratio TTM (2.67%), and P/E ratio factor (2.45%)[1][14] - The worst-performing factors in the CSI 500 stock pool were the 5-minute return skewness factor (-3.71%), 6-day moving average of transaction amount (-2.69%), and 5-day reversal factor (-2.40%)[1][14] - In the liquidity 1500 stock pool, the best-performing factors this week were the operating cash flow ratio (2.27%), momentum-adjusted small orders (1.65%), and single-quarter ROA (1.62%)[2][16] - The worst-performing factors in the liquidity 1500 stock pool were the 5-minute return skewness factor (-3.03%), morning return factor (-2.65%), and 5-day average turnover rate (-2.21%)[2][16] - The PB-ROE-50 portfolio achieved positive excess returns in the CSI 500 stock pool this week, with an excess return of 0.59%[2][23] - The PB-ROE-50 portfolio recorded an excess return of -0.50% in the CSI 800 stock pool and -2.81% in the overall market stock pool[2][23] - The public fund research stock selection strategy and private fund research tracking strategy both recorded negative excess returns this week, with the public fund strategy achieving -4.21% and the private fund strategy achieving -1.85% relative to the CSI 800[2][25] - The block trade portfolio achieved a positive excess return of 0.06% relative to the CSI All Share Index this week[2][30] - The directed issuance portfolio achieved a positive excess return of 0.13% relative to the CSI All Share Index this week[2][35]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints - Credit bond issuance volume increased overall on a week - on - week basis, and credit spreads of various industries showed mixed trends [1] - The trading volume of credit bonds decreased on a week - on - week basis [4] Summary by Directory 1. Primary Market 1.1 Issuance Statistics - From January 26 to January 30, 2026, a total of 445 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 470.374 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 21.90% [11] - In terms of issuance scale, 197 industrial bonds were issued, with a scale of 240.177 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 17.79%, accounting for 51.06% of the total credit bond issuance scale; 202 urban investment bonds were issued, with a scale of 118.297 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 28.38%, accounting for 25.15%; 46 financial bonds were issued, with a scale of 111.9 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 24.58%, accounting for 23.79% [11] - In terms of issuance term, the average issuance term of credit bonds was 2.63 years. The average issuance term of industrial bonds was 2.28 years, urban investment bonds was 3.25 years, and financial bonds was 1.80 years [14] - The average issuance coupon rate of credit bonds was 2.09%. The average issuance coupon rate of industrial bonds was 2.01%, urban investment bonds was 2.23%, and financial bonds was 1.83% [2] 1.2 Cancellation of Issuance Statistics - One credit bond's issuance was cancelled this week [23] 2. Secondary Market 2.1 Credit Spread Tracking - This week, industry credit spreads showed mixed trends. Among Shenwan primary industries, for AAA - rated industries, the largest increase in credit spreads was in the automobile industry (3.6BP), and the largest decrease was in the light industry manufacturing (9.7BP); for AA + - rated industries, the largest increase was in the building materials industry (2.9BP), and the largest decrease was in the food and beverage industry (5.7BP); for AA - rated industries, the largest increase was in the media industry (20.8BP), and the largest decrease was in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry (5.6BP) [3] - Coal and steel credit spreads showed mixed trends. For coal, the credit spreads of AAA, AA + and AA levels decreased by 0.4BP, 2.5BP and increased by 1.6BP respectively. For steel, the credit spreads of AAA and AA + levels increased by 2.4BP and decreased by 4.3BP respectively [25] - Credit spreads of urban investment bonds at all levels showed mixed trends, while non - urban investment credit spreads decreased overall. The credit spreads of urban investment bonds at three levels increased by 0.3BP, decreased by 0.8BP and 1.3BP respectively; the credit spreads of non - urban investment bonds at three levels decreased by 0.1BP, 0.3BP and 1BP respectively [25] - State - owned enterprise credit spreads showed mixed trends, while private enterprise credit spreads decreased overall. The credit spreads of central state - owned enterprises at three levels increased by 1.2BP, decreased by 0.7BP and 2.1BP respectively; the credit spreads of local state - owned enterprises at three levels increased by 0.4BP, decreased by 0.2BP and 1BP respectively; the credit spreads of private enterprises at AAA and AA + levels decreased by 4.2BP and 2.1BP respectively [25] - Regional urban investment credit spreads showed mixed trends. The regions with the highest AAA - rated credit spreads were Yunnan, Liaoning and Shaanxi, with credit spreads of 90, 85 and 79BPs respectively; the regions with the highest AA + - rated credit spreads were Qinghai, Gansu and Yunnan, with credit spreads of 122, 118 and 115BPs respectively; the regions with the highest AA - rated credit spreads were Sichuan, Guangxi and Yunnan, with credit spreads of 133, 124 and 121BPs respectively. In terms of week - on - week changes, the region with the largest increase in AAA - rated credit spreads was Guangdong (2.8BP), and the largest decrease was Yunnan (7.9BP); the region with the largest increase in AA + - rated credit spreads was Gansu (1.6BP), and the largest decrease was Shaanxi (6.7BP); the region with the largest increase in AA - rated credit spreads was Shanghai (1.3BP), and the largest decrease was Shandong (3.9BP) [27] 2.2 Trading Volume Statistics - This week, the total trading volume of credit bonds was 1601.302 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 5.09%. Among various credit bonds, the top three in terms of trading volume were commercial bank bonds, corporate bonds and medium - term notes. Specifically, the trading volume of commercial bank bonds was 545.925 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 5.96%, accounting for 34.09% of the total credit bond trading volume; the trading volume of corporate bonds was 455.439 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 2.46%, accounting for 28.44%; the trading volume of medium - term notes was 338.276 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 6.63%, accounting for 21.13% [28] 2.3 Actively Traded Bonds This Week - According to DM client data, the top 20 urban investment bonds, industrial bonds and financial bonds in terms of trading volume this week are provided for investors' reference [30]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, both the convertible bond market and the equity market declined. Currently, it is recommended to select bonds in a refined manner, comprehensively judge based on convertible bond terms and the situation of the underlying stocks, and pay attention to the forced redemption risk of individual bonds [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情 - From January 26 to January 30, 2026 (a total of 5 trading days), the change rate of the CSI Convertible Bond Index was -2.61% (last week's change rate was +2.92%), and the change of the CSI All - Share Index was -1.54% (last week's change rate was +1.76%). Since 2026, the change rate of the CSI Convertible Bond Index has been +5.82%, and the change rate of the CSI All - Share Index has been +5.75% [1]. - In terms of ratings, the high - rated bonds (rated AAA), medium - high - rated bonds (rated AA+), medium - rated bonds (rated AA), medium - low - rated bonds (rated AA -), and low - rated bonds (rated AA - and below) had change rates of -0.81%, -1.48%, -1.51%, -1.87%, and -2.81% respectively this week, with high - rated bonds having the lowest decline [1]. - In terms of convertible bond scale, large - scale convertible bonds (bond balance greater than 2 billion yuan), medium - large - scale convertible bonds (balance between 1.5 and 2 billion yuan), medium - scale convertible bonds (balance between 1 and 1.5 billion yuan), small - medium - scale convertible bonds (balance between 0.5 and 1 billion yuan), and small - scale convertible bonds (balance less than 0.5 billion yuan) had change rates of -1.42%, -1.59%, -1.93%, -1.49%, and -2.49% respectively this week, with large - scale convertible bonds having the lowest decline [2]. - In terms of parity, ultra - high - parity bonds (conversion value greater than 130 yuan), high - parity bonds (conversion value between 120 and 130 yuan), medium - high - parity bonds (conversion value between 110 and 120 yuan), medium - parity bonds (conversion value between 100 and 110 yuan), medium - low - parity bonds (conversion value between 90 and 100 yuan), low - parity bonds (conversion value between 80 and 90 yuan), and ultra - low - parity bonds (conversion value less than 80 yuan) had change rates of +2.18%, +1.72%, -2.91%, +2.45, +1.51%, -4.29%, +5.97%, and -0.43% respectively this week, with low - parity bonds having the highest increase [2]. Convertible Bond Price, Parity, and Conversion Premium Rate - As of January 30, 2026, there were 392 outstanding convertible bonds (394 at the close of last week), with a balance of 548.015 billion yuan (550.573 billion yuan at the close of last week). - The average convertible bond price was 140.56 yuan (141.26 yuan at the close of last week), and the quantile was 99.33% (quantile from the beginning of 2023 to January 30, 2026). - The average convertible bond parity was 109.04 yuan (109.62 yuan at the close of last week), and the quantile was 99.33%. - The average conversion premium rate of convertible bonds was 34.49% (32.88% at the close of last week), and the quantile was 52.08% [3]. Convertible Bond Performance and Allocation Direction - This week, both the convertible bond market and the equity market declined. Currently, it is recommended to select bonds in a refined manner, comprehensively judge based on convertible bond terms and the situation of the underlying stocks, and pay attention to the forced redemption risk of individual bonds [4]. Convertible Bond Increase Situation - The top 15 convertible bonds in terms of increase this week are as follows: | Rank | Convertible Bond Name | Underlying Stock Name | Industry | Latest Closing Price (Yuan) | Convertible Bond Increase (%) | Underlying Stock Increase (%) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 1 | Lianrui Convertible Bond | Lianrui New Materials | Basic Chemicals | 226.51 | 44.00 | -5.66 | | 2 | Tianzhun Convertible Bond | Tianzhun Technology | Machinery and Equipment | 266.57 | 16.12 | 14.23 | | 3 | Baichuan Convertible Bond 2 | Baichuan Co., Ltd. | Basic Chemicals | 149.00 | 12.75 | 29.25 | | 4 | Outong Convertible Bond | Outong Co., Ltd. | Power Equipment | 742.86 | 8.01 | 14.48 | | 5 | Haomei Convertible Bond | Haomei New Materials | Non - ferrous Metals | 262.00 | 7.22 | -0.05 | | 6 | Yunji Convertible Bond | Yunji Group | Machinery and Equipment | 404.50 | 7.01 | 4.53 | | 7 | Aofei Convertible Bond | Aofei Data | Communications | 317.00 | 6.02 | 10.22 | | 8 | Jize Convertible Bond | Jize New Energy | Public Utilities | 244.99 | 5.65 | 6.85 | | 9 | Jinji Convertible Bond | Jinji Co., Ltd. | Basic Chemicals | 151.00 | 4.72 | 19.60 | | 10 | Saite Convertible Bond | Saite New Materials | Basic Chemicals | 152.62 | 4.16 | 14.99 | | 11 | Xiaoming Convertible Bond | Xiaoming Co., Ltd. | Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery | 145.68 | 4.15 | 13.89 | | 12 | Jin05 Convertible Bond | Jinpan Technology | Power Equipment | 208.25 | 3.69 | -7.47 | | 13 | Yubang Convertible Bond | Yubang New Materials | Power Equipment | 160.16 | 3.68 | 9.82 | | 14 | Tianyuan Convertible Bond | Wuhan Tianyuan | Environmental Protection | 272.20 | 3.68 | -2.86 | | 15 | Huairui Convertible Bond | Huairui Precision | Machinery and Equipment | 159.44 | 3.37 | 3.14 | [20]

2026 年 1 月 31 日 总量研究 二级市场价格波动上涨，首批商业不动产 REITs 已申报 ——REITs 周度观察（20260126-20260130） 要点 1、 二级市场 2026 年 1 月 26 日-2026 年 1 月 30 日（以下简称"本周"），我国已上市公募 REITs 二级市场价格整体呈现波动上行趋势：中证 REITs（收盘）和中证 REITs 全收益指数分别收于 809.56 和 1052.42，本周回报率分别为 0.35%和 0.47%。 与其他主流大类资产相比，回报率由高至低排序分别为：原油> REITs > 纯债 > 美股>A 股>黄金>可转债。 从项目属性来看，本周产权类和特许经营权类 REITs 的二级市场价格均有所上 涨，其中，产权类 REITs 回报率为 0.27%，特许经营权类 REITs 回报率为 0.68%。 从底层资产类型来看，本周水利设施类 REITs 涨幅最大。本周回报率排名前三的 底层资产类型分别为水利设施类、能源类和交通基础设施类。 从单只 REIT 层面来看，有 41 只 REITs 上涨，1 只 REIT 与上周持平，有 36 只 REITs 下 ...

2026 年 1 月 31 日 总量研究 沃什将如何重塑政策路径与市场预期？ ——解构美国系列第十八篇 作者 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 分析师：周欣平 执业证书编号：S0930525070005 010-57378026 zhouxinping@ebscn.com 相关研报 美国政府停摆：阴影逐步消散——解构美国 系列第十七篇（2026-01-21） 特朗普如何激活美国地产：现实与挑战—— 解构美国系列第十六篇（2025-12-27） 胶着的医保谈判，不确定的政府停摆—— 《大国博弈》系列第九十二篇（2025-12- 15） 美国政府重新开门，市场为何"不买账"？ ——解构美国系列第十五篇（2025-11-18） 美元指数突破 100 后，强势美元将维持多 久？——解构美国系列第十四篇（2025-11- 06） 特朗普升级全球关税战，对华后续军棋推演 ——《大国博弈》系列第八十一篇（2025- 04-03） 减税法案或是美国经济预期转折点——解构 美国系列第十一篇（2025-03-26） 美国政府停摆迫近，影响 ...

2026 年 1 月 31 日 公司研究 生产力与企业流程稳健增长，Azure 增长受可分配算力限制 ——微软（MSFT.O）2026 财年二季报业绩点评 要点 事件：美国东部时间 2026 年 1 月 28 日盘后，微软发布 FY26Q2 业绩公告。 美国东部时间 2026 年 1 月 29 日盘后，微软股价收跌 9.99%。 FY26Q2 业绩超预期系投资收益拉动。FY26Q2 微软实现营业收入 813 亿美元， 同比增长 17%，略高于市场一致预期；实现营业利润 383 亿美元，同比增长 21%，对应营业利润率 47.1%；GAAP 口径下净利润 385 亿美元，同比增长 60%，主要受 OpenAI 投资重估收益拉动；剔除 OpenAI 投资影响后的 non-GAAP 净利润 309 亿美元，同比增长 23%。 Azure 增速维持高位，但收入增长受可分配算力限制。FY26Q2 智能云实现收 入约 329 亿美元，同比增长 29%，整体增速与前期水平接近，主要反映既有 云业务与存量客户扩容的延续；其中 Azure 及其他云服务收入同比增长 39%， 与 FY26Q1 基本持平，增速未进一步上行，公司指 ...