Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of CNY 10.66 [6] Core Views - The company is a leader in the container industry and is involved in energy equipment and logistics equipment sectors [1] - The container industry is in an upward cycle, and the company's performance is expected to grow due to increased demand in offshore engineering and logistics [1] - The company's Q3 2024 net profit is expected to increase by 708% to 1069% YoY, with a QoQ growth of 0.3% to 45% [2] - The company's Q3 2024 net profit is forecasted to be between CNY 784 million and CNY 1.134 billion, with a YoY increase of 708% to 1069% [2] - The company's Q3 2024 non-GAAP net profit is expected to grow by 241% to 394% YoY [2] - The company's container business is benefiting from the upward cycle of the shipping industry, with dry container sales increasing significantly [2] - The offshore engineering sector is also seeing increased demand, contributing to higher revenue and profits [2] - The company has optimized its foreign exchange hedging strategy, reducing exchange losses compared to the same period in 2023 [2] - The container industry is expected to see a renewal demand of 2-2.5 million TEUs in 2024, with total demand potentially reaching 4.5 million TEUs [2] - The dry container price is expected to remain high in 2025 [2] Financial Summary - The company's revenue is expected to grow from CNY 141.5 billion in 2022 to CNY 186.1 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 7.1% [3] - Net profit is forecasted to increase from CNY 3.2 billion in 2022 to CNY 5.1 billion in 2026, with a significant recovery in 2024 [3] - EPS is expected to grow from CNY 0.60 in 2022 to CNY 0.95 in 2026 [3] - ROE is projected to increase from 6.6% in 2022 to 8.8% in 2026 [3] - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 13.62 in 2022 to 8.60 in 2026 [3] Industry Outlook - The container industry is expected to remain strong due to increased shipping distances caused by global trade friction [2] - The offshore engineering sector is also expected to see continued growth due to rising demand [2] Financial Forecast - The company's total assets are expected to grow from CNY 145.9 billion in 2022 to CNY 205.3 billion in 2026 [12] - Operating cash flow is forecasted to increase from CNY 14.6 billion in 2022 to CNY 13.6 billion in 2026 [12] - The company's debt-to-equity ratio is expected to remain stable, ranging from 57.1% in 2022 to 59.0% in 2026 [12]

股 票 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 次新板块反弹上行，打新周度收益创年内 最高 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------------------------------------|--------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------| | | [table_Authors] 王政之 ( 分析师 ) | ——次新市场周报（ \n施怡昀 ( 分析师 ) | 2024 年 10 月第 3 周） \n王思琪 ( 分析师 ) | | | 021-38674944 | 021-38032690 | 021-38038671 | | | wangzhengzhi@gtjas.com | shiyiyun@gtjas.com | wangsiqi026737@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880517060002 | S0880522060002 | S0880524080007 | 本报告导读： 10 月第 3 周，次新 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][8] Core Views - The company has shown stable revenue growth with a 9.30% increase in revenue to 9.29 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2024, and a 2.15% increase in net profit to 870 million yuan. Q3 revenue reached 2.86 billion yuan, up 12.41%, while net profit decreased by 2.21% due to foreign exchange losses [1][2] - The gross margin is under short-term pressure, with a gross margin of 24.23% for Q1-Q3 2024, down 2.55 percentage points year-on-year. The Q3 gross margin was 23.18%, down 4.02 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to high base prices of raw materials in the same period last year and an increase in low-margin foreign trade products [1][2] - The company is expanding its project and customer base, with a significant increase in CDMO projects and ongoing projects. As of H1 2024, the company has registered two API varieties and submitted 20 new DMF applications, with a 51% year-on-year increase in CDMO project quotes [1][2] Financial Summary - For the financial year 2024E, the company forecasts revenue of 12.66 billion yuan, a 10.4% increase, and a net profit of 1.15 billion yuan, an 8.8% increase. The EPS is projected to be 0.98 yuan for 2024, 1.15 yuan for 2025, and 1.42 yuan for 2026 [7][8] - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 14.79 billion yuan by 2024, with total liabilities of 7.93 billion yuan, resulting in a net asset value of 6.85 billion yuan [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an updated target price of 353.00 yuan, reflecting a 25 times PE for 2025, up from the previous target of 287.75 yuan [3][5]. Core Insights - The company has a strong competitive moat due to continuous product innovation and robust profitability, leading to a steady increase in market share [3]. - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 92.278 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 12.5% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 13.136 billion yuan, up 26.0% year-on-year and 6.3% quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The gross margin significantly improved to 31.17%, an increase of 8.75 percentage points year-on-year and 4.53 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, driven by lower raw material costs and higher utilization rates [3]. - The company’s global market share reached 37.1% in the first eight months of 2024, up 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, while domestic market share was 45.9%, maintaining the leading position with a year-on-year increase of 3.1 percentage points [3]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company is expected to generate revenue of 361.741 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.8% from 2023, with net profit projected at 50.932 billion yuan, a 15.4% increase [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024 is 11.57 yuan, with subsequent years projected at 14.12 yuan for 2025 and 16.93 yuan for 2026 [4]. - The net asset return rate is expected to be 18.9% in 2024, slightly down from 22.3% in 2023 [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industrial gas sector, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Viewpoints - The prices of bulk gases such as oxygen and nitrogen have rebounded month-on-month, while argon prices remain stable. Rare gases like neon and krypton have held steady, while xenon and helium prices have declined. There is a slight increase in demand from downstream steel mills, suggesting a potential recovery in bulk gas prices [3]. Summary by Sections - **Bulk Gas Prices**: Oxygen and nitrogen prices have increased month-on-month, while argon prices have remained unchanged. As of October 19, the average price of liquid oxygen is 392.38 RMB/ton, down 15.40% year-on-year but up 7.45% month-on-month. Liquid nitrogen averages 422.14 RMB/ton, down 15.25% year-on-year and up 2.96% month-on-month. Liquid argon is priced at 619.52 RMB/ton, down 44.86% year-on-year and up 5.86% month-on-month [4]. - **Rare Gas Prices**: Neon and krypton prices have remained stable, while xenon and helium prices have decreased. As of October 19, neon is priced at 120 RMB/m³, down 52% year-on-year and stable month-on-month. Krypton is at 330 RMB/m³, up 49.23% year-on-year and stable month-on-month. Xenon is priced at 29,500 RMB/m³, up 51.24% year-on-year and down 3.28% month-on-month. Helium in 40L bottles averages 633.46 RMB/bottle, down 44.92% year-on-year and down 0.60% month-on-month [4]. - **Demand and Supply Dynamics**: There is a slight increase in oxygen demand from steel mills, with a reported apparent consumption of rebar at 2.5784 million tons for the week, down 14% year-on-year but up 3.76% month-on-month. The steel price index is at 102.10, down 4.7% year-on-year but up 12.38% month-on-month. The overall outlook suggests a gradual recovery in bulk gas prices, while rare gas prices are expected to remain relatively stable [4]. - **Investment Recommendations**: The report recommends stocks such as Hangzhou Oxygen Plant and Shaanxi Blower, with beneficiary stocks including Huate Gas, Qiaoyuan Co., Guanggang Gas, China Shipbuilding Special Gas, Kaimite Gas, Jinhong Gas, and Heyuan Gas [4].

Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as "Overweight" [2][4][5] Core Viewpoints - The steel sector is currently at a bottom phase, with expectations for demand improvement and supply restructuring, leading to enhanced competitive advantages for industry leaders [3][4] - Recent favorable policies are expected to boost demand, particularly in the real estate sector, which is anticipated to stabilize and recover [4][9] - The overall inventory of steel continues to decline, maintaining the lowest levels since 2015, while production and consumption show signs of recovery [4][19] Summary by Sections Steel Market Overview - The apparent consumption of major steel products reached 9.1097 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.03%, but a year-on-year decrease of 5.82% [19] - Total steel inventory decreased to 12.7255 million tons, down 375,500 tons week-on-week, marking the lowest level for the same period since 2015 [4][15] - The operating rate of blast furnaces among 247 steel mills rose to 81.68%, an increase of 0.89 percentage points week-on-week [21] Production and Profitability - Weekly steel production totaled 8.7342 million tons, an increase of 96,000 tons week-on-week [26] - The profit margin for rebar production decreased to 293.2 CNY/ton, down 108.2 CNY/ton week-on-week, while hot-rolled coil profit margins also fell [29] Policy and Demand Drivers - Recent government initiatives aim to stabilize the real estate market, which is expected to positively impact steel demand [4][9] - Infrastructure projects are anticipated to continue supporting demand, alongside stable growth in manufacturing [4][9] Raw Material Prices - Iron ore prices have decreased, with spot prices dropping to 749 CNY/ton, a decline of 4.10% [35] - Coking coal prices have shown mixed trends, with spot prices for coking coal rising to 2,010 CNY/ton, an increase of 2.55% [35] Recommendations - The report recommends companies with strong product structures and competitive advantages, such as Hualing Steel and Baosteel, as well as resource companies like Hebei Resources and Ordos [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the lithium and cobalt industry [3][11]. Core Insights - Recent macroeconomic sentiment fluctuations have led to a decline in lithium prices, with carbonate lithium futures experiencing significant drops. The current price trends show a divergence from the fundamentals, with short-term price movements being heavily influenced by market sentiment and expectations. However, it is anticipated that medium to long-term price trends will revert to being driven by supply and demand dynamics [3][4][11]. - The lithium segment is seeing a continued decline in lithium salt prices, prompting downstream companies to replenish their inventories. The report notes that the price of lithium carbonate has decreased by 5.92% to 71,500 CNY/ton in Wuxi and by 4.57% to 74,200 CNY/ton in the Guangxi market. Additionally, lithium concentrate prices have dropped by 26 USD/ton to 752 USD/ton [4][11]. - The cobalt segment is facing weakening cost support for cobalt salts, with downstream companies maintaining essential purchasing needs. Cobalt companies are extending their reach into the electric new energy manufacturing sector, creating a cost advantage through an integrated cobalt-nickel precursor model [4][11]. Summary by Sections Market Cycle Assessment - The report emphasizes the need to maintain an "Overweight" rating for the lithium and cobalt sectors, highlighting the ongoing price declines in lithium salts and the replenishment actions by downstream players [4][11]. Company and Industry Dynamics - Lithium Americas has secured a 625 million USD investment from General Motors for the development of the Thacker Pass lithium project, granting GM a 38% stake and a long-term off-take agreement [14]. - Pilbara Minerals has finalized a new 1 billion AUD revolving credit facility to support refinancing and operational funding [14]. - AVZ is involved in a legal dispute with Zijin Mining regarding the Manono lithium project in the Democratic Republic of Congo, with recent court rulings affirming Zijin's acquisition of shares [14]. Key Data - The report provides various data points, including a 1.41% week-on-week increase in domestic lithium carbonate production and a 1.54% decrease in inventory levels. The average price for battery-grade lithium carbonate has dropped by 3.66% to a range of 71,800-75,500 CNY/ton [12][11]. - The average price for lithium iron phosphate has decreased by 2.03%, while the average price for ternary materials has fallen by 1.50% [12][11]. Profit Forecast for Listed Companies - The report includes profit forecasts for several companies, with "Overweight" ratings for Yongxing Materials, Ganfeng Lithium, and Tianqi Lithium, among others. For instance, Ganfeng Lithium is projected to have an EPS of 0.90 CNY for 2024, with a PE ratio of -37.5 [77].

Investment Rating - The report rates the tourism industry as "Overweight" [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of cyclical recovery driven by policy support, highlighting the upcoming third-quarter earnings reports as a key focus for identifying stable performance stocks [2][3] - It recommends sectors such as dining, hotels, and human resources services due to improved competitive dynamics and expected price and volume increases [3] - The report also notes the sustained popularity of tourism, suggesting investment in travel-related companies [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Tourism Industry - The report highlights the continuous rise in tourism interest, recommending companies like Tongcheng Travel, Ctrip Group, SanTe Cableway, Jiuhua Tourism, and Changbai Mountain [3][8] - It mentions the positive impact of recent economic stabilization policies on the tourism sector [2] Dining Sector - The report suggests investing in dining companies such as Haidilao and Jiumaojiu, indicating their potential for growth [3][9] - It notes the competitive landscape in the dining industry is improving, which may lead to better performance [3] Retail and E-commerce - The report identifies opportunities in retail and e-commerce, recommending companies like Miniso and Xiaogongpincity, which are expected to maintain high growth [3][8] - It highlights the ongoing expansion of e-commerce platforms and their partnerships to enhance service offerings [3] Education Sector - The report points out a reversal in the education sector's downturn, recommending undervalued stocks such as Excellent Education and Thinking Education for sustainable performance [3][8] - It emphasizes the potential for growth in educational services as the market stabilizes [3] Human Resources Services - The report recommends investing in human resources service companies, indicating a positive outlook for firms like Beijing Human Resources and BOSS Zhipin [3][8] - It notes the increasing demand for human resources services as the economy recovers [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the industry, indicating a neutral outlook compared to the market index [64]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the U.S. retail sales data for September exceeded expectations, showcasing economic resilience. This has led to a recalibration of interest rate cut expectations by the Federal Reserve, while inflation concerns and ongoing liquidity easing persist. Additionally, geopolitical tensions have heightened risk aversion, contributing to a strong performance in precious metal prices. Domestic policies are also supportive, particularly for industrial metals, which are expected to perform well during the traditional peak season [3][4][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - U.S. retail sales in September rose by 0.4%, surpassing the market expectation of 0.3%, and previous value of 0.1%. This strong consumer spending supports economic resilience. Initial jobless claims fell to 241,000, below the expected 260,000. Despite a decrease in the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in 2024, inflation concerns remain, especially with escalating conflicts in the Middle East and the Korean Peninsula, which are driving up risk aversion and supporting precious metal prices [4][7]. 2. Industry and Stock Performance - The report recommends stocks such as Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum, with beneficiaries including Western Mining, China Aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., Yun Aluminum, Shandong Gold, and Shanjin International. The industrial metals sector is expected to benefit from favorable domestic policies and is currently in a peak demand season, which should support prices [4][8]. 3. Metal Prices and Inventory 3.1 Industrial Metals - Copper prices have seen a decline, with LME and SHFE copper prices at $9,625.5 and ¥76,980 per ton, respectively. The copper processing rate has increased to 78.89%, indicating a recovery in demand. The report notes a tightening supply situation for copper concentrates, with the current treatment charge remaining at $12.9 per ton [15][42]. 3.2 Precious Metals - Gold prices have risen, with SHFE gold at ¥619.06 per gram and COMEX gold at $2,736.40 per ounce, reflecting increases of 4.02% and 2.25% respectively. Silver prices also increased, with SHFE silver at ¥7,896 per kilogram and COMEX silver at $33.93 per ounce, showing gains of 3.15% and 6.83% respectively. The report indicates that gold inventories have increased slightly, while silver inventories have seen a significant rise [18][19]. 4. Macroeconomic Data Tracking - The report tracks macroeconomic indicators, noting that China's GDP grew by 4.8% year-on-year in the first three quarters, and industrial value-added increased by 5.8% year-on-year, suggesting a positive economic outlook [4][7]. 5. Company Earnings Forecast - The report includes earnings forecasts for listed companies, with Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum highlighted for their growth potential. The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024 are projected at ¥1.19 for Zijin Mining and ¥0.50 for Luoyang Molybdenum, indicating strong future performance [59].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company's Q3 performance met expectations, with multiple business segments continuing to recover, leading to an upward revision of the EPS forecasts for 2024 and 2025 to 3.88 and 4.62 CNY respectively, while maintaining the 2026 EPS at 5.38 CNY [2][3]. - The target price has been raised to 69.84 CNY from the previous 55.71 CNY, based on a 18x PE for 2024, reflecting the company's growth potential [3][5]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 35.61 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 15% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15%, with a net profit of 1.80 billion CNY, up 20% year-on-year and 12% quarter-on-quarter [3][4]. Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 95.53 billion CNY, a 25% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.90 billion CNY, a 22% increase year-on-year [3][4]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 10.80%, a decrease of 1.00 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 5.62%, a slight decrease of 0.01 percentage points year-on-year [3][4]. - The company has established over 600,000 square meters of specialized chemical warehouses and is expanding its logistics capabilities both domestically and internationally [3][4]. Market Position and Industry Outlook - The company has significant room for market share growth, as its revenue in the hazardous chemical logistics market is still relatively low compared to the total market size of 2.38 trillion CNY in 2023 [3][4]. - The increasing regulatory requirements for safety and environmental protection are expected to drive industry consolidation, benefiting specialized third-party logistics providers like the company [3][4].