Investment Rating - The report indicates a shift in focus from credit to physical volume in the industry, suggesting a cautious but potentially optimistic outlook for investment opportunities moving forward [1]. Core Insights - The adjustment of existing project planning is becoming a new variable in the land market, with land acquisition scale declining at a slower rate than sales scale from 2021 to 2023, indicating sustained land acquisition intensity [1]. - The report highlights that the current planning adjustments, including land commercial conversion, increased building efficiency, and adjustments in floor area ratio, have positively impacted liquidity for existing projects, aiding in inventory reduction and risk management for real estate companies [1]. - A significant decline in state-owned land use rights transfer income is noted, with a 25% year-on-year drop as of August 2024, leading to a projected income gap of 1.4 trillion yuan if the trend continues [1]. - The report emphasizes the need to monitor the reinvestment willingness of real estate companies under the new conditions of revitalizing existing assets [1]. - The focus on physical volume indicators such as GDP, PMI, and employment rates is expected to increase post-2024 as the industry transitions from credit concerns to tangible economic metrics [1]. Summary by Sections - **Land Market Dynamics**: The report discusses the ongoing adjustments in land project planning and their implications for land acquisition and sales, noting that the demand for new land acquisition may decrease as existing projects are revitalized [1]. - **Financial Implications**: The connection between land transfer income and related expenditures is explored, indicating that a decline in land transfer income could lead to reduced spending on land development and urban construction, impacting physical volume [1]. - **Future Focus**: The report suggests a shift in industry focus from credit-related issues to physical volume metrics, highlighting the importance of tracking economic indicators that reflect real estate market health [1].

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the military industry, consistent with the previous rating [1] Core Views - SpaceX's Starship successfully completed its fifth test flight, marking a revolutionary milestone in human spaceflight history [3] - Starship is the largest and most powerful rocket globally, capable of delivering over 100 tons of payload to orbit and is fully reusable, significantly reducing space activity costs [3] - Liquid rockets are more suitable for batch and large-scale launch missions, driven by strong demand for low-orbit internet constellation construction [3] - Solid small rockets are flexible, can be stored for long periods, and have lower single-launch costs [3] - Domestic commercial rockets are expected to see concentrated first launches in the next two years, with a significant increase in launch numbers after 2026 [3] - The "Hyperbola-3" rocket by iSpace is planned for its first flight by the end of 2025, with a single-use payload capacity of 13 tons, potentially becoming the first reusable large liquid rocket in China [3] Company Valuations and Recommendations - **AVIC Optoelectronics (002179 SZ)**: - Closing price: 43 18 CNY (as of October 14, 2024) - EPS forecast: 1 90 CNY (2024E), 2 38 CNY (2025E) - PE ratio: 23 (2024E), 18 (2025E) - Rating: Overweight [4] - **Aerospace Electric (002025 SZ)**: - Closing price: 55 58 CNY (as of October 14, 2024) - EPS forecast: 2 16 CNY (2024E), 2 78 CNY (2025E) - PE ratio: 26 (2024E), 20 (2025E) - Rating: Overweight [4] - **Guangwei Composites (300699 SZ)**: - Closing price: 32 51 CNY (as of October 14, 2024) - EPS forecast: 1 09 CNY (2024E), 1 26 CNY (2025E) - PE ratio: 30 (2024E), 26 (2025E) - Rating: Overweight [4] Related Reports - Military industry reports on topics such as commercial aerospace, new military equipment, and domestic aircraft development [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the communication equipment and services industry, consistent with the previous rating [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights the intensive release of data element policies and the rapid advancement of the industry. It emphasizes the importance of the upcoming Q3 reports as indicators for annual profitability across various sectors and companies [5][7]. - It anticipates continued strong growth in the overseas computing supply chain sector, stable growth in the domestic telecommunications market, and signs of industrial realization in the domestic computing supply chain [5][7]. - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in the optical interconnection sector, state-owned enterprises with high dividends, and emerging themes in low-altitude economy, satellite communication, and vehicle-mounted communication [5][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Investment Viewpoint - The report discusses the release of the "National Data Standard System Construction Guide" by multiple government departments, aiming to establish a national data standard system by the end of 2026 [5][7]. - It mentions the central government's first systematic deployment of public data resource development and utilization, with significant improvements expected by 2025 [5][7]. 2. Weekly Market Review 2.1. Communication Sector Performance - The communication sector outperformed the broader market, with the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 3.25%, while the communication sector fell by only 1.99% [8]. - The communication equipment and service sub-sectors showed a decline of 0.93% and 4.21%, respectively [8]. 2.2. Individual Stock Performance - The top-performing stocks included Cheng Tian Wei Ye (+27.64%) and Hai Neng Da (+25.04%), while the worst performers were Lang Wei Co. (-16.46%) and Hua Xing Chuang Ye (-16.02%) [12]. 3. Upcoming Announcements - The report lists several companies with upcoming announcements, including shareholder meetings and performance releases scheduled for the week of October 14-20 [14]. 4. Lock-up Expiration Reminders - The report provides details on upcoming lock-up expirations for various companies, including Tongyu Communication and Guanghe Tong, with specific numbers of shares and expiration dates [15]. 5. Major Company Earnings Forecasts and Valuations - The report includes earnings forecasts and valuations for key companies in the sector, with several companies rated as "Overweight" based on their projected performance [16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the snack industry, consistent with the previous rating [2][15]. Core Insights - The snack sector demonstrates strong anti-cyclical capabilities, with continuous growth driven by product innovation, channel expansion, and cost advantages [3][4]. - The report highlights three core logic points for the snack industry: product benefits, channel advantages, and scale effects, which are expected to continue driving performance [4][7]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The snack industry is positioned to benefit from a downtrend in consumer spending, showcasing robust anti-cyclical characteristics [4][8]. - The upcoming peak season is anticipated to enhance demand, particularly for value-oriented snack products during the festive period [8]. Key Companies - **Three Squirrels**: Expected Q3 2024 net profit growth of 200.45% to 224.81%, driven by supply chain optimization and enhanced product value [4][9]. - **Jinzai Foods**: Projected Q3 2024 net profit growth of 30% to 60%, with strong performance in egg and fish products [9][10]. - **Salted Fish**: Anticipated Q3 2024 revenue growth of 20% to 25%, with a focus on discount and e-commerce channels [9][10]. - **Qiaqia Foods**: Expected to see a slight improvement in profits despite a weaker revenue outlook for Q3 2024 [10]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests increasing positions in Three Squirrels, Jinzai Foods, Qiaqia Foods, Salted Fish, and Hong Kong-listed Weilong Delicious, with a focus on companies benefiting from the upcoming festive season [4][10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry, consistent with the previous rating [3]. Core Insights - The launch of Honor's AI Agent marks a significant advancement in smartphone technology, enabling multiple cross-application operations and providing an entry point for third-party large models, which is expected to drive performance improvements across the industry [4]. - The new flagship Magic 7 series, set to debut in October 2024, will feature the AI Agent, likely stimulating a new wave of device upgrades and increasing demand in the upstream supply chain [5]. - Honor's AI Agent is designed to ensure user privacy by processing data locally, thus preventing sensitive information from being uploaded to the cloud [5]. - The company is focusing on an open strategy to connect with third-party services, thereby expanding the capabilities of the AI Agent to meet diverse user needs [5]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific stocks that are expected to benefit from the advancements in AI technology, including Longqi Technology, Sitaiwei-W, Hengxuan Technology, New Xiangwei, Weier Technology, and Zhuoshengwei, with additional beneficiaries identified as Aishide and Aiwei Electronics [5][7]. Financial Projections - The report includes a valuation table for recommended stocks, detailing their closing prices and projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026, along with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios [7]. - For example, Longqi Technology is projected to have an EPS of 1.54 in 2024, with a PE ratio of 26.03, while Hengxuan Technology is expected to have an EPS of 3.06 and a PE ratio of 79.29 for the same year [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the brokerage industry [1]. Core Insights - The performance of listed brokerages is expected to improve significantly in Q3 2024, with a year-on-year profit increase of 48% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20% due to low base effects and market recovery [3][4]. - The report suggests increasing holdings in leading brokerages benefiting from supply-side reforms, specifically recommending China Galaxy, CICC H, and CITIC Securities [4][25]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance Outlook - For the first three quarters of 2024, the net profit of 43 listed brokerages is projected to decline by 4.16% year-on-year, with adjusted operating revenue expected to decrease by 5.91% to CNY 300.23 billion [4][6]. - In Q3 2024, adjusted operating revenue is anticipated to be CNY 109.34 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22.06% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.76% [6][7]. 2. Business Segments 2.1 Brokerage Business - Brokerage revenue is expected to decline by 16.24% to CNY 64.39 billion due to low trading volumes and reduced commission rates [10][12]. 2.2 Investment Banking - Investment banking revenue is projected to drop by 38.77% to CNY 21.58 billion, primarily due to tightened equity financing conditions [13][15]. 2.3 Asset Management - Asset management revenue is expected to decrease by 1.61% to CNY 34.17 billion, mainly due to lower management fee rates [15][18]. 2.4 Credit Business - Credit business revenue is anticipated to decline by 24.42% to CNY 25.89 billion, driven by increased liabilities [18][20]. 2.5 Investment Business - Investment revenue is projected to increase by 21.04% to CNY 134.26 billion, supported by a favorable market environment [20][21]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes that recent policy measures are beneficial for the brokerage sector, recommending an overweight position in leading brokerages that will benefit from supply-side reforms [23][25].

Export Performance - September export growth rate was 2.4%, down from 8.7% in August, indicating a negative momentum in month-on-month performance[1] - The decline in exports is attributed to seasonal weakening of overseas demand and the impact of typhoons in mid-September[2] - Major export markets, including the US, EU, Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN, all experienced a decrease in export growth rates[1] Future Outlook - Despite the risk of weakening exports in Q4 due to a continuous decline in global PMI over four months, the expected drop is anticipated to be less severe than market expectations, with an annual export growth forecast of 4.1%[3] - The rebound in October exports is expected due to the backlog of goods caused by typhoons, which is projected to lead to a month-on-month increase[3] - Potential "rush to export" phenomenon may occur if Trump wins the election, as historical data suggests significant tariff threat signals lead to increased exports in the following quarter[3] Import Trends - September import growth rate was 0.3%, slightly down from 0.5% in August, with agricultural and chemical imports showing recovery while energy imports declined[2]

Group 1: Social Financing Overview - In September 2024, the growth rate of social financing stock slightly decreased to 8.0% from the previous 8.1%, with new social financing amounting to 3.76 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 372.2 billion yuan[4] - The highlight of September's social financing was the recovery in loan growth, with new loans showing a smaller year-on-year decrease of 720 billion yuan compared to previous months[4] - Government bonds continued to be a significant support, with local government financing accelerating to a net financing amount of 1.1 trillion yuan and a total of 1.5 trillion yuan in new government bonds, an increase of 540 billion yuan year-on-year[4] Group 2: Credit and Monetary Policy - The trend of "balance sheet contraction" in the private sector has significantly slowed down, indicating a step towards repairing balance sheets[6] - M2 growth rate rebounded to 6.8% from 6.3%, while M1 growth rate slightly declined to -7.4% from -7.3%[10] - Non-bank deposits increased significantly by 910 billion yuan year-on-year, reflecting a stable monetary effect amid stock and bond market rallies[10] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - The ability of government credit to stimulate private sector credit will be crucial for future economic recovery, with M1 growth expected to rise if private sector balance sheets are repaired[14] - Risks include the potential for the private sector's balance sheet repair process to fall short of expectations, which could hinder credit recovery[16] - Continued government support through fiscal policies is anticipated to stabilize social financing in the coming months[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company plans to acquire and integrate a logistics supply chain for chemical products, with limited asset scale that does not alter its profit trend. The first interim dividend is proposed, reflecting active market value management, and a high dividend policy is expected to continue throughout the year. The report suggests a contrarian investment approach during the peak season [2] - The company forecasts net profits of 5.45 billion, 7.04 billion, and 7.97 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, maintaining a target price of 22.96 yuan [2] - The acquisition involves a cash purchase of 1.26 billion yuan for a 70% stake in Shenzhen Longpeng, an 87% stake in Hainan Zhaogang, and a 15% stake in Xizhong Island Port, along with two LPG vessels and a fleet of 14 LPG ships and 10 chemical tankers. This acquisition is seen as a step towards deepening state-owned enterprise reform and enhancing operational scale and synergy [2][3] - The company anticipates a challenging operating environment in the second half of 2024 due to geopolitical oil prices, but this does not change the bullish outlook for oil transportation [2] Financial Summary - The company reported revenues of 18.658 billion yuan in 2022, with projections of 22.091 billion in 2023 and 23.174 billion in 2024, reflecting growth rates of 46.9%, 18.4%, and 4.9% respectively [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.457 billion yuan in 2022, expected to rise to 3.351 billion in 2023 and 5.450 billion in 2024, with growth rates of 129.3%, 130.0%, and 62.7% respectively [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.31 yuan in 2022 to 0.70 yuan in 2023 and 1.14 yuan in 2024 [3] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 4.6% in 2022 to 9.7% in 2023 and 14.6% in 2024 [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Chow Tai Fook (1929) [3][12]. Core Views - The report indicates that gold prices continue to rise, which may put pressure on the sales volume of gold by weight. However, the increase in the contribution of priced gold and the appreciation of inventory due to rising gold prices are expected to boost profit margins in FY2025 [3]. - The estimated net profit for Chow Tai Fook for FY2025-2027 has been revised down to HKD 6.321 billion, HKD 6.912 billion, and HKD 7.453 billion respectively, from previous estimates of HKD 7.420 billion, HKD 8.209 billion, and HKD 9.085 billion [3]. - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) for FY2025-2027 to be HKD 0.63, HKD 0.69, and HKD 0.75 respectively, down from previous estimates of HKD 0.74, HKD 0.82, and HKD 0.91 [3]. - The target price has been adjusted to HKD 9.45 from HKD 11.13, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 15 times for FY2025 [3]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - From July to September 2024, gold prices have shown strong performance, with domestic gold prices rising from HKD 550 per gram to HKD 598 per gram [3]. - Retail sales in July and August 2024 grew by 2.7% and 2.1% year-on-year, but sales in the gold and jewelry category declined by 10.4% and 12% respectively, underperforming the overall consumer market [3]. Sales and Profitability - The demand for gold by weight is expected to remain under pressure due to high gold prices, while the demand for priced gold is anticipated to benefit from exquisite design and craftsmanship, leading to a potential increase in sales [3]. - The report suggests that the proportion of embedded products may stabilize and increase, benefiting from the sales boost from the "Chuanfu" series, which could drive the sales share of embedded products upward [3]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve significantly due to the appreciation of inventory from rising gold prices, with a notable profit margin increase projected for FY2025 [3]. Financial Summary - The financial summary indicates that for FY2023, the company reported a revenue of HKD 94.684 billion, with a projected revenue of HKD 93.962 billion for FY2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 13.6% [7]. - The gross profit for FY2023 was HKD 21.171 billion, with a projected gross profit of HKD 21.235 billion for FY2025 [7]. - The net profit for FY2023 was HKD 5.384 billion, with a projected net profit of HKD 6.321 billion for FY2025, indicating a slight decrease of 2.7% [7].