Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the industry, consistent with the previous rating [2][8]. Core Insights - The introduction of Tesla's L5 level autonomous driving Robotaxi, Cybercab, is expected to commence mass production in 2026 with a production cost dropping below $30,000, which is anticipated to drive demand for computing power, cameras, and wireless charging [3]. - The Cybercab features no steering wheel or pedals, relying on AI and visual systems for driving without human supervision, and is projected to have an operational cost of $0.20 per mile [3]. - The report highlights the potential benefits for companies such as Shiyun Circuit, Chen Zhan Optoelectronics, Dongshan Precision, and Zhaowei Electromechanical due to the expected increase in demand for computing power, cameras, and wireless charging technology [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the advancements in L5 level autonomous driving technology and its implications for the electronic components industry [2][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the mass production of Robotaxi and humanoid robots will likely enhance the demand for computing power, cameras, and wireless charging systems [3]. Key Developments - The Cybercab is set to be produced at a significantly lower cost, with high safety standards, being ten times safer than human drivers [3]. - The Optimus humanoid robot is making progress with improved fluidity and complexity in movements, potentially taking on various tasks in the future [3].

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.10.14 [table_Authors] 彭磊(分析师) 周明頔(研究助理) 010-83939806 010-83939792 penglei018712@gtjas.com zhoumingdi028698@gtjas.com 登记编号S0880518100003 S0880123070156 证 券 研 究 报 告 打造新增长引擎，商业航天有望驶入"快车道" [Table_Industry] 军工 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 ——广东出台加快商业航天高质量发展行动方案事件快评 本报告导读： 广东省近日印发相关政策，提出到 2026 年，全省商业航天及关联产业规模力争达到 3000 亿元。目前已有多地出台相关政策，有望驱动我国商业航天产业驶入"快车道"。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 为抢抓商业航天发展战略机遇，加快推进广东商业航天高质量发 展，《广东省推动商业航天高质量发展行动方案 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance [3][9]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the travel luggage industry, with a strong brand portfolio including Samsonite, Tumi, and American Tourister. It is expected to achieve steady growth through global expansion and improved operational efficiency [3][9]. - Projected net profits for 2024-2026 are estimated at $422 million, $457 million, and $497 million respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 9, 9, and 8 times [3][9]. - The global luggage market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 7% over the next five years, with the company benefiting from multi-brand synergy and an expected increase in market share [3][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Key Points and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to maintain a competitive edge through high-quality brand assets and efficient channel operations. The main brand, Samsonite, offers a diverse range of products from mid-range to high-end, while Tumi focuses on the premium business segment [3][9]. - Revenue and net profit from the company's main brands showed significant growth in 2023, with increases of 28%, 34%, and 26% respectively [3][9]. 2. Company Overview: Global Renowned Luggage Brand - Established in 1910, the company is recognized as the largest luggage manufacturer globally, with a diverse brand portfolio that includes Samsonite, Tumi, and American Tourister [14][18]. 3. Industry: Rapid Growth in Luggage Consumption - The global luggage market has shown steady growth, increasing from $119.2 billion in 2011 to $161.1 billion in 2023, with a CAGR of approximately 3% [25]. - The domestic luggage market in China is also expanding, driven by rising disposable income and increasing travel demand, with a projected market size exceeding 300 billion yuan [27][31]. 4. Competitive Advantages: Quality Brand Assets and Channel Expansion - The company has a well-established brand matrix that covers various market segments, enhancing its competitive position [14][15]. - The direct-to-consumer (DTC) revenue share is expected to rise to nearly 40%, reflecting the company's commitment to enhancing operational efficiency [3][9]. 5. Future Outlook: Continued Global Expansion - The company plans to deepen its presence in high-potential emerging markets, particularly in Latin America, while maintaining stable performance in Europe and North America [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the industry [1][21]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the core constraint for personal housing mortgage loans is cash flow, specifically the borrower's monthly income, rather than the value of the collateral property. Current market concerns regarding the decline in collateral value are deemed insignificant [2][3][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Concerns about Mortgage Loans as Asset Collateral - The market perceives personal housing mortgage loans as asset-backed, leading to concerns about the decline in collateral value. As of August 2024, new residential prices have dropped by 8.4% and second-hand residential prices by 14.7% compared to their peak in 2021. The decline varies by city tier, with first-tier cities experiencing smaller drops than second and third-tier cities [3][7][10]. 2. Cash Flow as the Core Constraint for Mortgage Loans - The report argues that mortgage loans are fundamentally cash flow-backed rather than asset-backed. According to the guidelines for risk management in real estate loans, banks should focus on the borrower's repayment ability, with specific ratios for housing and total debt payments relative to income [11][12]. This indicates that the loan amount is primarily influenced by the borrower's income rather than the property value [11][19]. 3. Addressing Market Concerns - The report addresses three main market concerns: 1. The risk of "down payment loss" due to low down payment ratios and significant price drops is considered low, with the average down payment ratio in 2023 estimated at 65.5%, well above the minimum requirement [17][19]. 2. Concerns about needing to "top up principal" if a cross-bank mortgage transfer policy is implemented are mitigated by the understanding that loan limits are more closely tied to income reassessment rather than property value [19]. 3. The risk of banks facing bad debts due to insufficient auction proceeds from foreclosures is limited, as current laws allow banks to pursue remaining debts even if the property value falls short [19][20]. 4. Recommended Investments - The report suggests a dual investment strategy: one side focuses on companies with clean balance sheets, such as China Merchants Shekou, China National Chemical Corporation, and Poly Developments; the other side emphasizes companies benefiting from restructuring, including CIFI Holdings and Sunac China [3][21].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the environmental protection industry, particularly due to the introduction of significant debt resolution measures that are expected to improve accounts receivable recovery for companies in this sector [1][2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent debt resolution measures, initiated in 2023, aim to mitigate local government debt risks and are expected to enhance the cash flow situation for environmental companies, particularly those with high accounts receivable [1][2]. - Key beneficiaries identified include companies like Yingfeng Environment, Qingxin Environment, and others in financially weaker regions such as Yunnan and Inner Mongolia [1]. - The report emphasizes the potential for accelerated recovery of accounts receivable for waste management and water service companies, recommending firms such as Beijing Enterprises Water Group and Guangdong Investment [1]. Summary by Sections Historical Review - The report outlines a series of debt resolution measures introduced from July 2023 to October 2024, including the implementation of a comprehensive debt resolution plan and the extension of policies to support provinces with high debt burdens [1]. - Specific documents mentioned include the 35th document released in September 2023 and the 134th document issued in October 2024, which aim to facilitate the resolution of local government debt [1]. Debt Overview - The report provides a snapshot of accounts receivable in the environmental sector, noting that the top five companies by accounts receivable in H1 2024 are Shouquan Environmental, BWS, Yingfeng Environment, Zhongzai Environmental, and Zhongyuan Environmental, with respective receivables of 140 billion, 117 billion, 63 billion, 58 billion, and 55 billion [1]. - It also highlights the proportion of accounts receivable to total assets, with Zhongzai Environmental leading at 75% [1]. - The report discusses the impact of credit impairment losses on operating profits, with significant percentages noted for various companies, indicating a challenging financial environment [1].

Investment Rating - The report recommends investment in companies such as Yonyou Network, Kingdee International, and TP-Link, while also identifying beneficiaries like Taxfriend, China Software, Bosi Software, Zhongke Jiangnan, and Jiuxi Software [1]. Core Insights - The new round of fiscal and tax system reform has transitioned from planning to the implementation phase, with the Ministry of Finance indicating a focus on accelerating reform and improving fiscal management [1]. - The fiscal IT construction is expected to benefit first from the reform measures, with a concentration on foundational systems such as budget management and fiscal transfer payment systems [1]. - There is a guaranteed funding source for fiscal information construction, with expectations of more incremental policy measures to support this sector [2]. Summary by Sections Fiscal and Tax System Reform - The Ministry of Finance has outlined a roadmap for the new fiscal and tax system reform, emphasizing a problem-oriented and goal-oriented approach [1]. - The implementation of reform measures is set to occur over the next two years, focusing on foundational institutional improvements [1]. IT Construction Benefits - The fiscal IT construction is anticipated to be the first area to benefit from the reforms, driven by the need for digital solutions to support the new fiscal policies [1]. - The report highlights that changes in the fiscal system will create new demands for IT construction in both fiscal and tax departments, as well as among enterprises [1]. Funding and Policy Measures - The funding for fiscal information construction is assured, with the central government planning to increase debt limits to support local governments in managing hidden debts [2]. - The Ministry of Finance is exploring additional policy tools to enhance counter-cyclical adjustments, indicating a robust support framework for fiscal IT initiatives [2].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Insights - The adjustment of existing project planning is a new variable in the land market, indicating a shift from credit to physical assets [4]. - The report highlights that the decline in land acquisition scale is slower than the drop in sales scale from 2021 to 2023, suggesting a sustained interest in land acquisition despite market challenges [4][7]. - The report emphasizes the need to monitor the willingness of real estate companies to reinvest in new land under the new conditions of inventory adjustment [4][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Adjustment of Existing Projects - The ongoing adjustment of existing project planning is identified as a new variable in the land market, with significant implications for land acquisition and sales [4][10]. - The report notes that from 2021 to 2023, the compound annual growth rates for land acquisition and sales were -18% and -20%, respectively, indicating a stronger resilience in land acquisition [7][16]. 2. Impact of Land Market Changes on Physical Volume - The report states that the adjustment in the land market will have a chain reaction on physical volumes, linking land use rights transfer income to expenditures on land development and urban construction [4][17]. - As of August 2024, the income from land use rights transfer was 2 trillion yuan, down 25% year-on-year, indicating a potential income gap of 1.4 trillion yuan if the decline continues [4][19]. - The report suggests that the focus of the industry will gradually shift from credit to physical volume indicators such as GDP, PMI, and employment rates starting in 2024 [4][19]. 3. Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment based on their clean balance sheets and potential for recovery, including China Merchants Shekou, China New Group, and Poly Developments [4][25]. - It also highlights companies benefiting from restructuring progress, such as CIFI Holdings and Sunac China [4][25].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an investment rating for the company [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - The company, Laplace (688726 SH), is a leading provider of high-performance thermal processing and coating equipment for efficient photovoltaic (PV) cell production, with over RMB 10 billion in current orders [3][4] - The company is expanding into the semiconductor discrete device equipment sector and is expected to benefit from the trend of domestic substitution in semiconductor equipment [3][4] - The company achieved revenue of RMB 2 966 billion and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 411 million in 2023 [3] - The average PE ratios for comparable companies in 2023, 2024, and 2025 are 36 03x, 22 85x, and 16 75x, respectively [3][4] Business Analysis - The company's main business is the R&D, production, and sales of high-performance thermal processing, coating, and supporting automation equipment for PV cell manufacturing [4] - Revenue grew rapidly from RMB 103 58 million in 2021 to RMB 2 966 billion in 2023, with a CAGR of 435 13% [8] - The company's gross margin increased from 16 37% in 2021 to 32 94% in 2022, but slightly declined to 30 42% in 2023 due to product mix changes [11] - The company's period expense ratio decreased as revenue scale expanded, dropping from 87 72% in 2021 to 15 24% in H1 2024 [12] Industry Development and Competitive Landscape - China has become a major component of the global PV equipment industry, accounting for over 90% of the global market share in 2023 [17] - The domestic substitution of PV equipment in China has been largely achieved, giving Chinese companies a competitive advantage globally [18] - The company is a leading player in the high-performance thermal processing and coating equipment market for PV cells, with a strong presence in TOPCon and XBC technologies [19] - In the semiconductor sector, foreign companies still dominate, but the company is focusing on high-temperature oxidation and annealing equipment for SiC-based semiconductor devices [18][19] IPO and Fundraising - The company plans to issue 40 5326 million shares, representing 10% of the total shares post-IPO [20] - The fundraising projects aim to enhance the company's R&D and production capabilities in PV and semiconductor equipment, with a total investment of RMB 1 8 billion [20][21] Comparable Companies and Valuation - Comparable companies include Jiejia Weichuang (300724 SZ), Weidao Nano (688147 SH), Maiwei Co (300751 SZ), and North Huachuang (002371 SZ) [24] - The average PE ratios for these comparable companies are 36 03x for 2023, 22 85x for 2024, and 16 75x for 2025 [24]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a target price of 52.8 CNY, assigning a "Buy" rating [2][3]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company is a leading domestic optical connector device enterprise, with expectations for its optical interconnect business to exceed forecasts due to rapid AI development [2][3][14]. - The company has a strong order backlog, with a projected revenue growth of 30% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, and the second quarter nearing historical revenue highs [12][14]. - The company is expected to gradually introduce its self-developed MT chip solutions in the second half of 2024, which will alleviate capacity constraints and enhance overall profitability [3][12]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 885 million CNY in 2023 to 1.267 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 43.2% [4][13]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to increase from 155 million CNY in 2023 to 187 million CNY in 2024, representing a growth rate of 20.3% [4][13]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.68 CNY in 2023 to 0.82 CNY in 2024 [4][13]. Company Overview - The company has over 20 years of experience in the optical connector industry, starting with ceramic inserts and expanding through acquisitions to cover the entire production process [14][20]. - It is a dominant player in the domestic ceramic insert industry and a leading supplier of MPO/MTP optical connectors, with significant exports to international data centers [20][21]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the company’s revenue is highly concentrated in overseas markets, with over 70% of sales coming from international clients, particularly in North America [25][26]. - The demand for MPO/MTP connectors is expected to surge due to the ongoing upgrades in data centers to support AI and high-density connections [3][12][25]. Valuation Analysis - The report assigns a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 43x for 2025, leading to a target price of 52.8 CNY based on industry average valuations [15][17]. - A price-to-book (PB) ratio of 6.83x is also considered, suggesting a reasonable valuation range of 45.9 to 52.8 CNY [17][18].

Industry Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the computer industry [2][3] Core Views - The report highlights the positive impact of debt resolution on the computer sector, particularly in three key areas: financial IT, Xinchuang (信创), and government IT [4] - Financial IT is expected to benefit from technological empowerment in asset management companies (AMCs), with companies like Yuxin Technology potentially transitioning to a SaaS model [4] - Xinchuang is seen as a primary investment direction for local governments post-debt resolution, with potential for strong recovery in government-related Xinchuang investments [4] - Government IT spending is expected to rebound, benefiting companies like New Point Software and Digital China, with potential for increased profitability as projects progress [4] Recommended Stocks - Key recommended stocks include Yuxin Technology (300674 SZ), Jingbeifang (002987 SZ), Kingsoft Office (688111 SH), Chinasoft International (301236 SZ), TOWEI Information (002261 SZ), New Point Software (688232 SH), and Digital China (300075 SZ) [4][6] - Beneficiary stocks mentioned include Taiji Computer, Hygon Data, Runhe Software, Boss Software, and Zhongke Jiangnan [4] Valuation and Performance Metrics - Yuxin Technology: Closing price of 18 69 RMB, 2024E EPS of 0 47 RMB, 2024E PE of 39 77 [6] - Jingbeifang: Closing price of 16 20 RMB, 2024E EPS of 0 55 RMB, 2024E PE of 29 45 [6] - Kingsoft Office: Closing price of 246 27 RMB, 2024E EPS of 3 72 RMB, 2024E PE of 66 20 [6] - Chinasoft International: Closing price of 58 17 RMB, 2024E EPS of 0 66 RMB, 2024E PE of 88 14 [6] - TOWEI Information: Closing price of 18 98 RMB, 2024E EPS of 0 07 RMB, 2024E PE of 271 14 [6] - New Point Software: Closing price of 31 41 RMB, 2024E EPS of 0 73 RMB, 2024E PE of 43 03 [6] - Digital China: Closing price of 16 83 RMB, 2024E EPS of 0 41 RMB, 2024E PE of 41 05 [6] Related Reports - The report references several related studies, including "Tax Reform Enters Implementation Phase, IT Construction Demand Accelerates" and "Pure Blood HarmonyOS Public Beta, HarmonyOS Ecosystem Accelerates" [5]