。总量研究。 01、宏观：就业弱化但未恶化，降息交易短期或有回调 02、宏观：特朗普哈里斯首轮辩论前瞻 03、策略：震荡中的修复 04、策略：揭开全球主权基金的神秘面纱 05、海外策略：盈利改善且降息临近，港股迎反弹机遇 06、主动配置：美国衰退预期升温压制市场风险偏好 07、主动配置：低利率环境下的海外机构资产配置实践 08、基金配置：大类资产配置月报（2024年9月） 09、新能源：比亚迪（002594）8月销量创新高，新车型与海外并举赋能 10、机械：中科飞测（688361）产品布局日趋完善，短期波动不改向好趋势 11、医药：康方生物（9926.HK）依沃西vs K药临床数据创纪录，肺癌领域新突破 12、纺服：森马服饰（002563）发布股权激励，彰显公司发展信心 13、汽车：科博达（603786）新产品逐步放量，公司有望量价齐升 。 行业研究。 14、交运：航运景气驱动造船周期 15、家电：外销贡献增长动能，多数企业注重收入 16、汽车：FSD有望入华，加速智驾行业发展 17、有色：澳洲降本增产，美洲扩产稍缓 18、基础化工：24Q2盈利环比改善，周期磨底静待拐点 19、环保：碳市场扩容，CCER规模 ...

AI ASIC Chips - ASIC chips are designed for specific scenarios and have a complete software and hardware ecosystem, offering significant price and power consumption advantages compared to GPUs [1][2] - Although single ASIC chip computing power is still lower than the most advanced GPUs, the computing efficiency of ASIC clusters may be higher, making them suitable for AI inference and training [1][2] - The ASIC market is in its early stages, with a low market share in AI acceleration chips (16% in 2023), but it is expected to grow rapidly, reaching over $40 billion by 2028, with a CAGR of 45% [1][3] - ASIC chips like Google TPU v6 and Microsoft Maia 100 achieve 90% and 80% of H100's non-sparse computing power, respectively, while being more cost-effective in inference scenarios [2] - ASIC clusters, such as Google TPU v5p, can scale up to 8,960 chips per pod and maintain linear acceleration, potentially surpassing GPU clusters in computing efficiency [2] - The software ecosystem for ASIC chips is gradually maturing, with cloud providers developing full-stack software ecosystems and open-source platforms like ROCm and oneAPI [2][3] AI Human-Computer Interaction - LLM-driven multimodal interaction methods are leading a new productivity revolution, with AI agents potentially reshaping the ecosystem of end-side operating systems and business models [4][5] - Apple, Google, and Microsoft are expected to benefit from AI-driven human-computer interaction changes, with Apple Intelligence, Google's Project Astra, and Microsoft Copilot leading the way [4][5] - AI agents will integrate and unify various app entrances, becoming "super apps" at the operating system level, with Siri, Project Astra, and Copilot+PC leading the transformation [4][5] - The evolution of human-computer interaction will bring new business models, such as Apple's potential to charge for Siri calls and Google's ability to enhance its app ecosystem through AI [5] AI Social Networks - AI is transforming traditional software business models, with social networks expected to strengthen their value through hybrid AI structures, enhancing network effects and social utility [7][8] - Social networks are a highly certain sector in the AI era, with demand and business model certainty driven by multi-level social applications and improved matching efficiency [7] - The future of AI social networks will involve interactions between humans, robots, and AI agents, creating a hybrid network that enhances human prosperity [7] - Global social network leaders like Tencent, Meta, and Google are recommended due to their user base, ecosystem, and model capabilities, with AI agents potentially doubling network nodes and tripling network effects [8] AI Smartphones - AI smartphones are expected to become the core entry point for AI applications, surpassing AI PCs due to their ubiquity and portability, with future AI phones evolving into autonomous agents with digital personalities [10][11] - The AI smartphone market is projected to drive a new wave of device upgrades, with shipments reaching 380 million units by 2025, a 134% year-on-year increase [10] - AI smartphones will benefit hardware and model providers, with companies like Qualcomm and TSMC expected to see improved profit margins and increased demand for advanced SoCs [10][11] - The deployment of large models on devices is technically feasible, with advancements in memory management and NPU performance enabling high-performance computing on smartphones [10]

8月出口环比改善，对欧美增速延续回升趋势。1)海关总署披露8月外贸数据，按美元计，1-8月我国出口增速4.6%、环比+0.6pct，进口增速 2.5%、环比-0.3pct；8月单月出口增速8.7%、环比+1.7pct，进口增速0.5%，环比-6.7pct；2)8月出口增速环比提升，我们认为因抢出口等因 素造成对欧美等出口保持较佳水平，且韩国/越南出口数据仍较好；但考虑8月全球制造业PMI低于荣枯线、欧线集运期货下跌、上年H2基数走高，出 口后续表现仍待观察；3)分区域，对拉美/金砖/欧盟/东盟/美国增速较快，分别20/18/13/9/5%；对非洲/金砖/拉美/日本增速分别 +12/+11/+6/+6pct；4)分产品：资本品表现最佳，中间品/出行品增速改善；船舶61%、汽车33%、废料31%、未锻造的铝及铝材24%、手机 17%、家电12%等增速较快；多数消费品增速有改善。 Q2头部品牌公司增速更快，期待10月亚马逊秋促表现。1)Q2跨境电商板块营收增速24.2%较Q1的26.1%略放缓；归母净利增速-7.4%、扣非增 速-0.9%明显回落，主要因海运涨价/终端调价/股权激励/渠道扩张等因素的影响；毛利率43 ...

事件：9月11日，国务院印发《关于加强监管防范风险推动保险业高质量发展的若干意见》（以下简称"新新国十条"）。 点评："新新国十条"目的是延续中央金融工作会议导向，基于保险功能定位出台推动行业高质量发展的制度要求。党的中央金融工作会议上指出，要 发挥保险业的经济减震器和社会稳定器功能，赋予了保险业清晰功能定位。作为2006年《关于保险业改革发展的若干意见》（"保险国十条"）、 2014年《国务院关于加快发展现代保险服务业的若干意见》（"新保险国十条"）之后国家层面指导保险业发展的又一重磅文件，本次"新新国十 条"为新阶段保险业高质量发展提出制度性的要求和指导。 "新新国十条"引导行业在防范化解风险的前提下实现高质量发展。"新新国十条"明确行业发展目标，到2029年，初步形成覆盖面稳步扩大、保障日 益全面、服务持续改善、资产配置稳健均衡、偿付能力充足、治理和内控健全有效的保险业高质量发展框架，保险监管制度体系更加健全，监管能力 和有效性大幅提高；到2035年，基本形成市场体系完备、产品和服务丰富多样、监管科学有效、具有较强国际竞争力的保险业新格局。具体举措 上，要求在防范化解风险的前提下实现高质量发展。防范风险 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the company [5] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the growth in solid-state battery demand and the increase in lithium iron phosphate installations, despite a slowdown in multi-element demand in the first half of 2024 due to weak overseas demand [4][11] - The target price has been adjusted to 39.43 CNY, down from the previous forecast of 43.10 CNY, reflecting a decrease in expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 and 2025 [5][11] Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of 21,264 million CNY in 2022, which is expected to decline to 8,110 million CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year decrease of 46.4% [11] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to drop from 2,259 million CNY in 2022 to 626 million CNY in 2024, a decrease of 67.5% [11] - The company’s gross margin for Q2 2024 was 13.51%, showing relative stability compared to 14.89% in Q1 2024 [11] Market Data - The current stock price is 32.21 CNY, with a 52-week price range of 27.15 to 52.51 CNY [6] - The total market capitalization is 16,314 million CNY, with a total share capital of 507 million shares [6] Industry Insights - The solid-state battery market is expected to grow, with companies like Penghui Energy and Nandu Power announcing developments in solid-state battery technology [11] - The company has successfully developed high ionic conductivity and stability nano solid-state electrolyte products, which have been adopted by leading solid-state battery manufacturers [11]

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.09.13 --电子板块推荐更新 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-----------------------------------|----------------------| | | | | | | [table_Authors] 舒迪 ( 分析师 ) | 李奇 ( 分析师 ) | | | 021-38676666 | 0755-23976888 | | | shudi@gtjas.com | liqi028295@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880521070002 | S0880523060001 | 本报告导读： OpenAI 发布最新的大模型 o1 和 o1 preview，在复杂推理的任务上更进一步，我们 持续看好 AI 算力基建的投资机会。 投资要点： 行 业 更 新 强调推理的 OpenAI o1 模型发布，AI 算力基建提 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for 康诺亚-B (2162) [2][5] Core Viewpoints - CM310, the first domestically produced IL-4R monoclonal antibody, was approved for adult moderate to severe atopic dermatitis (AD) on September 12, filling a gap in the domestic AD biopharmaceutical market [4][5] - The commercial team, consisting of nearly 200 members, is expected to rapidly advance sales following the early commercialization of CM310, with revenue forecasts for 2024 raised to 197 million RMB from the previous 156 million RMB [5] - Clinical data from Phase III trials show that CM310 has a 66.9% EASI-75 response rate at 16 weeks and a 92.5% response rate at 52 weeks, indicating excellent efficacy and safety [5] - The market potential for CM310 is significant, with the domestic AD market still having unmet needs and only one other IL-4R drug currently available [5] - The company has a strong pipeline and has been recognized for its R&D capabilities, with multiple collaborations and licensing agreements in place [5] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 197 million RMB, 526 million RMB, and 1.441 billion RMB respectively, reflecting significant growth [6] - The company experienced a revenue decline of 9.3% in 2022, but is expected to rebound with a projected revenue increase of 253.9% in 2023 [6] - The net profit is projected to remain negative in the coming years, with estimates of -854 million RMB in 2024 and -434 million RMB in 2026 [6]

Investment Rating - Downgrade target price to 22.62 RMB, maintain "Overweight" rating [3] - The target price is based on the average PE of comparable companies in 2024 [3] Core Views - Revenue is under temporary pressure, but profitability remains unaffected [3] - Net profit is significantly impacted by fluctuations in the fair value of financial assets held by the company [3] - Gross margin remains stable, and cost control measures are effective [3] - The company's 2024 equity incentive plan anchors long-term value, with a focus on infrastructure value and stable pricing power [3] Financial Performance - H1 2024 revenue reached 2.836 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 0.32% [3] - Q2 2024 revenue was 1.648 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 2.88% [3] - H1 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders was 29.89 million RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 93.30% [3] - Q2 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders was 66.03 million RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 70.56% [3] - The company's total headcount decreased to 12,700 by the end of the reporting period [3] Business Segments - Wealth technology business revenue declined by double digits in H1 2024, while other business segments remained relatively stable [3] - Gross margin remained stable with only a 0.73 percentage point decline, indicating the company's strong pricing power [3] Equity Incentive Plan - The company plans to grant 34 million options to 1,400 employees at an exercise price of 17.04 RMB [3] - The unlocking condition requires a year-on-year net profit growth rate of at least 10% by 2026 [3] Financial Forecasts - 2024-2026 EPS forecasts are 0.68 RMB, 0.92 RMB, and 1.09 RMB, respectively [3] - 2024-2026 revenue forecasts are 7.486 billion RMB, 7.775 billion RMB, and 8.184 billion RMB, respectively [10] - 2024-2026 net profit forecasts are 1.280 billion RMB, 1.735 billion RMB, and 2.067 billion RMB, respectively [10] Valuation Metrics - 2024-2026 PE ratios are 24.14, 17.80, and 14.95, respectively [10] - 2024-2026 PB ratios are 3.45, 2.99, and 2.58, respectively [12] - 2024-2026 PS ratios are 4.13, 3.97, and 3.78, respectively [12] Market Data - 52-week stock price range: 15.34-34.18 RMB [6] - Total market capitalization: 30.894 billion RMB [6] - Total shares outstanding: 1.894 billion [6] Historical Performance - 1-month stock price decline: -4% [8] - 3-month stock price decline: -16% [8] - 12-month stock price decline: -52% [8] Industry Context - The company operates in the financial IT sector, with a focus on infrastructure value and stable pricing power [3] - The industry is experiencing a contraction in IT spending by downstream financial clients [3]

事件： 生态环境部印发《全国碳排放权交易市场覆盖水泥、钢铁、电解铝行业工作方案（征求意见稿）》。 点评： 投资建议：1）工作方案要求推动行业企业安装在线监测设备，以监测数据校核核算结果，推荐污染源在线监测龙头。2）绿证与全国碳市场加 速衔接，绿证交易将改善垃圾焚烧公司盈利能力以及现金流，推荐垃圾焚烧龙头。3）具备隐形碳税创造能力再生资源板块：①再生油；②再生 塑料；③再生金属。 继电力行业，全国碳市场将纳入水泥、钢铁、电解铝行业，新增覆盖年碳排放30亿吨，分阶段收紧配额发放。1）2021年7月，全国碳市场启 动，发电行业作为首个纳入行业，年覆盖温室气体排放量约45亿吨二氧化碳。2）本次工作方案在电力行业基础上，将纳入水泥、钢铁、电解 铝行业，年度温室气体直接排放达到 2.6 万吨二氧化碳当量的单位作为重点排放单位。2024年为首个管控年度，于2025年底完成履约，至 2027年施行配额免费发放；2027年后，配额发放将适度收紧。 全国碳市场扩容带动CCER需求提升，CCER方法学有望加速增加覆盖范围。全国碳市场明确，可使用存量备案CCER抵销不超过5%碳排放配 额的清缴，首个履约期使用存量3272吨CCER用 ...

8月28日，中国国际航空公司和中国南方航空公司在中国商飞总装制造中心浦东基地同时接收首架C919飞机，这标志着C919飞机即将开启多用户运营新阶段。 国产民机高质量发展，产能爬坡交付提速。C919大型客机是我国首款按照国际通行适航标准自行研制、具有自主知识产权的单通道喷气式干线客机，座级158- 192座，航程4075-5555公里。截至2024年8月，共有9架C919飞机交付客户。其中，东方航空的C919飞机自商业首航以来，已连续平稳运行15个月，执飞5 条定期航线，累计执行商业航班超3600班次，飞行1万小时。南方航空、中国国航先后在2024年与中国商飞签订100架C919飞机订单，东方航空则在2021年订 购首批次5架的基础上，于2023年再下单100架C919大飞机。此外，海航旗下金鹏航空预计也将于2024年四季度接收首架C919飞机，并在未来几年将客机机队 逐步调整为单一国产C919飞机。中国商飞副总经理张玉金在采访时透露，C919订单数量已接近1200单，预计在5年内年产能规划将达到150架。 国产民机有望打破垄断格局，深度参与全球竞争。据《中国商飞公司市场预测年报（CMF）（2023-2042） ...