国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 ——贵金属周报 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------------------|----------------------------| | | 于嘉懿(分析师) | 刘小华(分析师) | | | 021-38038404 | 021-38038434 | | | yujiayi@gtjas.com | liuxiaohua027843@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880522080001 | S0880523120003 | 本报告导读： 美国 7 月通胀放缓、但房租分项等仍具粘性，7 月零售销售环比意外上升，但新屋 开工数超预期下降，降息预期反复，海外金价在周内宽幅波动后创下历史新高。随 着美联储降息时点临近，博弈加剧下，贵金属价格或呈震荡格局。 投资要点： 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.08.17 预期波动加剧，关注 Jackson hole 会议指引 [Table_Industry] 贵金属 [Ta ...

锦江酒店股权激励草案点评 [table_Authors] 刘越男(分析师) 于清泰(分析师) 021-38677706 021-38022689 liuyuenan@gtjas.com yuqingtai@gtjas.com 登记编号 S0880516030003 S0880519100001 本报告导读： 激励计划草案对业绩目标和激励力度均符合预期，业绩目标完成具有一定挑战性。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 激励计划符合预期。维持 2024/25/26 年 EPS 为 1.41/1.41/1.59 元， 对应归母净利润为 15.06/15.14/17.00 亿元，考虑公司为行业龙头， 且架构调整团队稳定后，经营及业绩有望改善，给予 25 年高于行业 平均 26xPE，维持目标价 35.66 元，增持。 事件：公司近期发布股权激励草案，核心要点：1）业绩目标：24/25/26 年 归 母 扣 非 业 绩 分 别 为 10/12.77/15.48 亿 ， 增 速 分 别 为 30%/28%/21%；2）开店目标：每年新开 1,200 家，3 年累计新开业 不少于 3,600 家；3）ROE24-2 ...

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 ——工业金属周报 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------------------|-------------------------| | | 于嘉懿(分析师) | 兰洋(研究助理) | | | 021-38038404 | 021-38031027 | | | yujiayi@gtjas.com | lanyang028684@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880522080001 | S0880123070158 | 本报告导读： 美国 7 月零售数据大超预期，市场对海外衰退担忧阶段性缓解，降息预期虽有所回 撤，但目前仍在降息窗口期，叠加旺季临近下铜铝等主要品种库存持续去化，工业 金属价格企稳反弹或延续。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 周期研判：美国 7 月零售销售额环比增 1.0%，超出预期的 0.4%和 前值 0.0%，创 2023 年 1 月以来最大增幅。市场对海外衰退的担忧 阶段性缓解，推动工业金属价格 ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.08.18 证 券 研 究 报 告 部分钢企亏损减产，产量连降七周[Table_Industry] 钢铁 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|---------------------|-------------------|----------------------| | | 李鹏飞(分析师) | 魏雨迪(分析师) | 王宏玉(分析师) | | | 010-83939783 | 021-38674763 | 021-38038343 | | | lipengfei@gtjas.com | weiyudi@gtjas.com | wanghongyu@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880519080003 | S0880520010002 | S0880523060005 | 本报告导读： 淡季需求边际下降，行业深度亏损；钢企亏损减产，供给同步下降，行业呈供需双 弱格局。但我们对全年需求不过于悲观,且供给收缩预期下，行业利润有望逐步修复。 投资 ...

| --- | --- | --- | |----------|-----------------------|---------------------------| | | 韩其成(分析师) | 郭浩然(分析师) | | | 021-38676162 | 010-83939793 | | | hanqicheng8@gtjas.com | guohaoran025968@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880516030004 | S0880524020002 | 本报告导读： 7 月广义基建投资增 10.7%环比加快 0.6 个百分点，狭义基建投资增 2.0%环比下降 2.6 个百分点。能源电力推荐中国能建/中国电建，逆周期推荐中国建筑/中国交建等。 投资要点： [7Table_Summary] 月固投/出口增速环比下降，新增企业中长期贷款同比少增。(1)7 月社 零总额同比增长 2.7%，增速环比 6 月加快 0.7 个百分点。固定资产投资 完成额同比增长 1.9%，增速环比 6 月下降 1.7 个百分点。出口金额同比 增长 7.0%，环比 6 月下降 1.6 个百分点。(2)7 月工业 ...

《黑神话：悟空》上线在即，XR 眼镜再迎升级 [Table_Industry] 传播文化业 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 ——传媒行业周报 2024 年 32 期 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|--------------------|------------------|-------------------------| | | 陈筱(分析师) | 李芓漪(分析师) | 杨昊(分析师) | | | 021-38675863 | 021-38038428 | 021-38032025 | | | chenxiao@gtjas.com | liziyi@gtjas.com | yanghao029514@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880515040003 | S0880523080004 | S0880524020001 | 本报告导读： 8 月 20 日，国产 3A 游戏《黑神话：悟空》将正式上线，目前该游戏已获全球媒体 好评，有望迎来国产游戏里程碑时刻；同日，PICO 将召开新品沟通会展示 XR 领 域全新成 ...

一季度业绩超预期, AI PC 需求逐步释放 联想集团(0992) [Table_Industry] 计算机 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 ——联想集团 1QFY25 业绩点评 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.08.18 | --- | |--------------------------------| | [table_Authors] 秦和平(分析师) | | 0755-23976666 | | qinheping027734@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 S0880523110003 | 本报告导读： AI 设备、基础设施和服务市场需求强劲，有望受益于 AI PC 需求释放 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 盈利预测及投资建议：基于全球个人电脑市场的持续稳健复苏，公 司多款新品发布，以及 AI 设备、基础设施和服务市场的强劲需求， 我们看好联想长期增长潜力，调整公司 FY2025E/FY2026E 营业收 入分别为 619/636 亿 美 元 ( 前值为 622/652 亿美元 ) ， FY2025E/FY2026E 净利润分别为 12.3/16.2 亿 ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.08.18 本周维生素 A、E 价格涨幅居前，关注旺季涨价 行情 ——基础化工行业周报 | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------|-----------|--------------------------| | | | [Table_Industry]基础化工 | | [Table_Invest] 评级： | | 增持 | | | 上次评级: | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|--------------------------|----------------------------|-----------------------------| | | 钟浩(分析师) | 钱伟伦(分析师) | 周志鹏(分析师) | | | 021-38038445 | 021-38038878 | 021-38676666 | | | zhonghao027638@gtjas.com | qianweilun027712@gtjas.com | zhouzhipeng02 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of 78.26 CNY [3][5][14]. Core Views - The company's Q2 2024 performance met expectations, with a revenue increase of 21.5% year-on-year, driven by strong growth in the Guo Yuan V series and Guo Yuan Dan Ya products [3][14]. - The company is expected to continue expanding its market share in Jiangsu province, supported by solid channel foundations and product lifecycle advantages [3][14]. - The report emphasizes the company's stable profitability, with a net profit margin of 35.3% in Q2 2024, despite a slight decrease in gross margin and sales expense ratio [3][14]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q2 2024 revenue and net profit increased by 21.5% and 16.86% year-on-year, respectively [14]. - The company forecasts EPS of 3.04 CNY, 3.67 CNY, and 4.26 CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 [3][14]. Market Position - The company is positioned to benefit from a deep product structure that caters to high-end demand, with significant growth potential in both domestic and emerging markets [3][14]. - The report highlights the company's ability to leverage its channel advantages and product lifecycle benefits to achieve further market share expansion [3][14]. Profitability - The company's profitability remains stable, with a net profit margin of 35.3% in Q2 2024, despite a slight decline in gross margin [3][14]. - The report notes that the company's contract liabilities decreased to 627 million CNY, reflecting a strategic recognition of prepayments [3][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning (2331) [2] Core Views - H1 2024 performance exceeded expectations, with profits surpassing forecasts while revenue met expectations [3] - The company revised its full-year 2024 revenue guidance downward due to ongoing macroeconomic pressures [3] - Li Ning's operating quality remains healthy, with the running category performing exceptionally well [4] Financial Performance - H1 2024 revenue reached RMB 14.345 billion, a 2.3% year-on-year increase [4] - Net profit for H1 2024 was RMB 1.952 billion, an 8% year-on-year decrease [4] - Gross margin improved to 50.4%, up 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [4] - Net profit margin declined to 13.6%, down 1.5 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The company plans to pay an interim dividend of 37.75 cents per share, with a payout ratio of 50% [4] Business Operations - Running category sales increased 25% year-on-year in H1 2024, accounting for 30% of total sales [4] - Basketball category sales decreased 20% year-on-year in H1 2024, representing 22% of total sales [4] - Inventory turnover improved to 3.9 months, down from 4-4.5 months in Q1 2024 [4] - E-commerce gross margin increased by 0.9 percentage points, while direct-to-consumer gross margin rose by 0.5 percentage points [4] Market Performance - Current stock price: HKD 13.10 [5] - 52-week price range: HKD 13.10 - 40.75 [5] - Current market capitalization: HKD 33.857 billion [5] Financial Projections - 2024-2026 net profit forecasts adjusted to RMB 3.20/3.62/3.90 billion, down from previous estimates of RMB 3.38/3.75/4.14 billion [4] - Projected PE ratios for 2024-2026: 10/9/8 times [4] - Revenue growth guidance for 2024 revised from mid-single-digit to low-single-digit growth [4]