Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price raised to 22.04 yuan based on a 19x PE for 2024 [3][5]. Core Insights - The company's consolidated business continues to recover in Q2 2024, despite short-term disruptions in electricity prices due to changes in water inflow during the dry season in the Yalong River basin. The long-term growth potential for installed capacity in the Yalong River basin remains significant [3]. - Q2 2024 performance was below expectations, with revenue of 600 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.3 billion yuan, up 9.7% year-on-year. The revenue for Q2 2024 was 350 million yuan, a 16.4% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.03 billion yuan, up 7.0% year-on-year, aligning with previous performance guidance [3]. - The report highlights that the Yalong River's electricity generation in Q2 2024 was 18.5 billion kWh, a 37.4% increase year-on-year, while the on-grid electricity price was 0.309 yuan/kWh, down 9.6% year-on-year. This decline in price is attributed to a significant increase in electricity generation during the wet season compared to the previous year [3]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to have an EPS of 1.16 yuan, with revenue expected to reach 1.51 billion yuan, reflecting a 2.1% increase year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at 5.68 billion yuan, a 29.0% increase year-on-year [4][11]. - The company's gross profit margin for Q2 2024 was 44.9%, an increase of 3.3 percentage points year-on-year, and financial expenses decreased by 50 million yuan year-on-year to 110 million yuan [3]. - The report indicates that the Yalong River basin has a planned total installed capacity of 100 GW, with over 20.8 GW already in operation as of the end of H1 2024, suggesting substantial future growth potential [3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [2][4]. Core Views - Short-term sales pressure is expected to continue, but the company has significant long-term operational advantages. The report anticipates a healthy and steady growth driven by strong retail operational capabilities [4]. - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to RMB 1.9 billion, RMB 2.21 billion, and RMB 2.45 billion respectively, down from previous estimates of RMB 2.39 billion, RMB 2.62 billion, and RMB 2.89 billion [4]. - The report highlights that online sales are expected to continue growing, with a projected increase in online revenue share to 30% in FY2025Q1, compared to 20-30% in FY2024 [4]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - The company’s retail and wholesale business total revenue is expected to show a year-on-year decline in the mid-single digits for FY2025Q1, with online growth outpacing offline due to fluctuating consumer demand and weak foot traffic [4]. - The report references industry peers, noting that the company’s revenue performance in June and July is expected to mirror Q1 trends, with continued differentiation between online and offline channels [4]. Profitability - The report indicates that the increase in online sales and negative operating leverage may impact overall profit margins. The overall discounting is expected to deepen slightly due to the higher proportion of online sales [4]. - The company’s historical return on equity (ROE) remains high, and it is expected to achieve further growth through enhanced multi-channel retail operations and optimized store structures [4]. Dividend Policy - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio of around 100% since 2021, demonstrating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [4].

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 究 4407025 证 券 研 究 报 告 [Table_Report] 相关报告 投资要点： 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.08.17 供给矛盾突出，锂价屡创新低 [Table_Industry] 有色金属 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 ——钴锂金属周报 | --- | --- | |----------|---------------------| | | 宁紫微(分析师) | | | 021-38038438 | | | ningziwei@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880523080002 | 有色金属《经济数据敏感增大，金银博弈加剧》 2024.08.11 有色金属《贵金属周度数据库》2024.08.11 有色金属《【国君有色】工业金属周度数据库 0810》2024.08.11 有色金属《累库未止，锂价继续下探》2024.08.10 有色金属《【国君有色】钴锂小金属周度数据库 0810》202 ...

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 究 4407025 证 券 研 究 报 告 -14% -6% 3% 11% 20% 29% 2023-08 2023-12 2024-04 2024-08 本报告导读： [Table_Market] 交易数据 投资要点： [Table_PicQuote] 52周股价走势图 伟明环保 上证指数 [Table_Report] 相关报告 装备制造和新能源材料业务快速发展 伟明环保(603568) 其他公用事业 [Table_Industry] /公用事业 | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------|-----------|-------| | [Table_Invest] 评级： | | 增持 | | | 上次评级: | 增持 | | [Table_Target] 目标价格： | | 30.63 | | | 上次预测: | 30.63 | | [当前价格： Table_CurPrice] | | 18.59 | [tab ...

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 究 4407025 证 券 研 究 报 告 -28% -20% -11% -2% 6% 15% 2023-08 2023-12 2024-04 2024-08 本报告导读： [Table_Market] 交易数据 投资要点： [Table_PicQuote] 52周股价走势图 迎驾贡酒 上证指数 [Table_Report] 相关报告 [当前价格： Table_CurPrice] 50.72 结构向上，盈利提升 迎驾贡酒(603198) 食品饮料 [Table_Industry] /必需消费 | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------|-----------|-------| | [Table_Invest] 评级： | | 增持 | | | 上次评级: | 增持 | | [Table_Target] 目标价格： | | 82.37 | | | 上次预测: | 82.37 | | --- | --- | --- | | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to Alibaba-SW (9988) [3] Core Insights - The report highlights that multiple business segments have exceeded expectations in reducing losses, with steady progress in the inclusion of Hong Kong Stock Connect, which is expected to improve liquidity and catalyze stock price [4][51] - The monetization rate for Taobao and Tmall is anticipated to reach a turning point due to new service fee policies and overall site improvements [4][51] Financial Overview - Revenue for the quarter was slightly below expectations at RMB 243.2 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4%, while adjusted net profit was RMB 40.7 billion, down 9% year-on-year [9][10] - The adjusted EBITA for Taobao and Tmall Group was RMB 48.81 billion, slightly above expectations [10] - The report projects slight adjustments to revenue forecasts for FY2025E-FY2027E, estimating revenues of RMB 1,039.2 billion, RMB 1,138.9 billion, and RMB 1,227.2 billion respectively [10][30] Business Segment Performance - Taobao and Tmall Group's revenue decreased by 1% year-on-year to RMB 113.4 billion, with an adjusted EBITA margin of 43% [17] - International commerce revenue grew by 32.4% year-on-year, with Lazada achieving monthly EBITA profitability [44] - The Cloud Intelligence segment saw a revenue increase of 6% year-on-year to RMB 26.55 billion, driven by AI-related product growth [48] - The Local Services segment reported a 12% year-on-year revenue increase to RMB 16.2 billion, with a significant reduction in losses [20] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a target price of HKD 101 for Alibaba's stock for FY2025, reiterating the "Accumulate" rating [10][30] - The report emphasizes the expected improvement in shareholder returns and the steady progress in the inclusion of Hong Kong Stock Connect [10][51]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's performance meets expectations, and the future production of self-made pulp is expected to smooth cost fluctuations, with orderly expansion of diversified paper products [2] - The target price is raised to 22.28 yuan, based on a 15.0x PE for 2024, reflecting the company's diversified paper product layout and enhanced profitability from self-made pulp production [1][5] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 10,777 million yuan, representing a 26.0% increase from 2023 [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 1,048 million yuan in 2024, a 58.0% increase compared to 2023 [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 1.49 yuan in 2024, increasing to 2.29 yuan by 2026 [2] - The net asset return rate is expected to improve from 9.1% in 2023 to 13.0% in 2024 [2] Production and Sales Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved a mechanism paper output of 554,700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 32% [1] - The sales volume of specialty paper pulp reached 513,600 tons in the same period, also up 32% year-on-year [1] - The company’s brand recognition for the Xianhe brand continues to rise, with market share in specific segments steadily increasing [1] Pricing and Profitability - The gross margin for Q2 2024 was reported at 17.4%, with a net margin of 10.9%, showing resilience against cost pressures through effective price increases [1] - The company recorded a loss of 27.46 million yuan in white card paper for H1 2024, but this loss has narrowed compared to the previous year [1] Capacity Expansion and Future Outlook - New production capacities are being gradually implemented, with significant output expected from new projects in H2 2024 [1] - The self-sufficiency rate for pulp is anticipated to reach 30%-40% in the second half of 2024, which is expected to reduce costs [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shougang Co., Ltd. (stock code: 000959) with a target price of 3.21 CNY, down from the previous target of 4.95 CNY [3][8]. Core Views - The company's debt pressure is gradually easing, which is expected to lead to a continuous decline in financial costs, benefiting the profitability per ton of steel [4]. - Shougang has established a competitive advantage in ultra-low emissions and low-carbon initiatives, positioning it to benefit from increasingly stringent environmental policies in the medium to long term [4][8]. - The company is the first in the world to achieve ultra-low emissions in long-process steelmaking, and it has been recognized as a benchmark enterprise for dual-carbon best practices by the China Iron and Steel Association [8]. Financial Summary - The total market capitalization of Shougang is 21,435 million CNY, with a total share capital of 7,795 million shares [5]. - The company's net profit for 2024 is projected to be 842 million CNY, with earnings per share (EPS) estimates of 0.11 CNY for 2024, 0.13 CNY for 2025, and 0.15 CNY for 2026 [9][8]. - The net debt ratio is reported at 60.61%, showing a significant decrease from a high of 73.60% in 2016 [8]. Market Position and Trends - The company is expected to benefit from new energy efficiency standards for power transformers, which will increase demand for high magnetic permeability electrical steel [8]. - The report highlights that Shougang's ultra-thin high magnetic permeability electrical steel maintains the highest domestic sales volume, indicating a strong market position [8]. - The steel industry is facing pressure from environmental regulations, with a government plan aiming for 30% of steel production to meet benchmark energy efficiency levels by 2025 [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][3]. Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure due to inventory impacts from U.S. customers, but improvement is expected in the second half of the year as hysteroscopes ramp up production and overall machine sales increase [2]. - For H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 220 million yuan (down 17.7%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 70.55 million yuan (down 21.0%) [2]. - The revenue for Q2 2024 was 103 million yuan (down 13.91%), with a net profit of 32.11 million yuan (down 21.43%) [2]. - The company has adjusted its EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 to 1.57, 1.97, and 2.38 yuan respectively, and has set a target price of 39.25 yuan based on a PE of 25x for 2024 [2]. Financial Summary - In 2024E, the company is projected to achieve revenue of 567 million yuan, a 20.4% increase from 2023, with a net profit of 189 million yuan, reflecting a 29.8% increase [3]. - The gross margin for H1 2024 was 64.09%, remaining stable year-on-year [2]. - The company’s net asset return rate is expected to improve from 11.3% in 2023 to 13.5% in 2024 [3]. Business Performance - The endoscope business generated revenue of 176 million yuan in H1 2024, down 16.74%, but showed a 10% increase quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The optical products segment reported revenue of 42.68 million yuan, down 23.1%, but is expected to stabilize with recovering orders from downstream customers [2]. - The company is focused on continuous product development, with plans for mass production of new hysteroscopes and other surgical instruments in H2 2024 [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Baofeng Energy (600989) with a target price of 21.00, down from the previous target of 21.41 [1][3]. Core Views - The recovery in polyolefin profitability and strong growth potential are highlighted, with significant capacity expansion projects underway [2][3]. - The company reported a revenue of 16.897 billion yuan for H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 29.09%, and a net profit of 3.305 billion yuan, up 46.44% year-on-year [3]. - The second quarter of 2024 saw revenues of 8.670 billion yuan, a 36.39% increase year-on-year and a 5.39% increase quarter-on-quarter, with net profits reaching 1.884 billion yuan, up 75.80% year-on-year and 32.57% quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The report notes that the domestic apparent consumption of polyolefins in H1 2024 was 37.06 million tons, a 3.3% increase year-on-year, indicating sustained demand growth [3]. Financial Summary - For H1 2024, the company achieved a polyolefin production of 1.2227 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 87% [3]. - The average prices for polyethylene and polypropylene in Q2 2024 were 7,300 yuan/ton and 6,794 yuan/ton, respectively, reflecting increases of 5.43% and 4.15% quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.07 yuan, 1.75 yuan, and 1.82 yuan, respectively, revised down from previous estimates [3][4]. - The company’s total revenue is expected to grow from 35.514 billion yuan in 2024 to 56.333 billion yuan in 2025, representing a growth rate of 58.6% [4]. Project Development - New projects are progressing steadily, with the Ningdong Phase III expected to commence production by the end of 2023 and the Inner Mongolia Phase I project scheduled for October 2024 [3]. - The company plans to construct a new materials project in Xinjiang with a capacity of 3.9 million tons/year of polyolefins, which will open up significant growth opportunities [3].