国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.08.11 优质券商自发兼并收购财务结果更优 投资银行业与经纪业 [Table_Industry] [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 ——券商并购重组专题系列二中国 1995-2003 篇 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|--------------------|---------------------------|---------------------------| | | 刘欣琦(分析师) | 王思玥(研究助理) | 吴浩东(分析师) | | | 021-38676647 | 021-38031024 | 010-83939780 | | | liuxinqi@gtjas.com | wangsiyue028676@gtjas.com | wuhaodong029780@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880515050001 | S0880 ...

大 类 资 产 配 置 主 动 资 产 配 置 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 大类资产配置 /[Table_Date] 2024.08.11 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|-----------------|--------------------------| | | | | | | | | | | | 人民币表现强势， A 股消费风格夏普回升 | | [Table_Authors] | 王子翌 ( 分析师 ) | | | | | 021-38038293 | | ——大类资产与风格轮动周报（ 2024 年第 6 期） | | | wangziyi027313@gtjas.com | | | | 登记编号 | S0880523050004 | | 本报告导读： | | | | | 上周（ 20240804-20240810 ）人民币汇率走强，原油表现较好，港股亮眼。日元汇率 | | | 李健 ( 研究助理 ) | ...

——化妆品基础研究框架之四 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|------------------|----------------------|-------------------| | | 訾猛(分析师) | 闫清徽(分析师) | 杨柳(分析师) | | | 021-38676442 | 021-38031651 | 021-38038323 | | | zimeng@gtjas.com | yanqinghui@gtjas.com | yangliu@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880513120002 | S0880522120004 | S0880521120001 | 本报告导读： 美妆个护品类需求相对具韧性，国货份额尚小仍有拓展空间，渠道、产品、组织改 善下长期看好国货崛起，并关注集团化进展。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 建议增持：1）强品牌势能标的：组织优秀，大单品驱动的珀莱雅； 受益重组胶原红利、大单品放量的巨子生物、锦波生物；2）平价消 费标的：产品渠道持续拓展的润本股份；高性价比、强运营的上美 股份；3）预期筑 ...

——消费品投资进阶之道系列五 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|------------------------------|-------------------| | | [table_Authors] 訾猛(分析师) | 邱苗(分析师) | | | 021-38676442 | 021-38675861 | | | zimeng@gtjas.com | qiumiao@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880513120002 | S0880521050001 | 本报告导读： 消费行业是一个看似简单、实则研究门槛极高的行业，本系列报告旨在搭建底层研 究框架，帮助初学者快速掌握消费品行业分析方法，共同探讨消费品企业投资之道。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 投资建议：基于《消费品投资进阶之道》研究框架，我们长期看好 中国消费龙头的投资机会，尤其是具备一流的商业模式&生意特性、 市场前景广阔、成长逻辑清晰、行业竞争格局持续改善的龙头企业， 有望在中长期维度上展现其投资价值，具体推荐标的及盈利预测参 见报告第 3 章节。 消费品研究框架一般讲究"三力"， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for the first half of 2024 decreased by 1.77% year-on-year, primarily due to pressure on financial services, while contributions from industrial operations continued to improve [3][5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 32.10% year-on-year, but the company demonstrated operational resilience by implementing a mid-term dividend for the first time, amounting to HKD 0.25 per share, with a cash dividend payout ratio of 47% [3][5]. - The report projects a target price of HKD 11.96, corresponding to a P/E ratio of 9.04x for 2024 [5]. Financial Performance Summary - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 18.04 billion in the first half of 2024, down from RMB 18.61 billion in the same period of 2023, reflecting a decline of 1.77% [8]. - Financial services revenue, which includes interest income, decreased by 3.47% year-on-year, contributing to the overall revenue decline [8]. - Industrial operations revenue increased to RMB 7.24 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.14% [8]. - The net interest margin (NIM) improved to 4.47%, up by 0.05 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a stable financial performance despite the challenges [5][8]. - The company reported a non-performing asset ratio of 1.04%, which remained stable compared to the previous year [8]. Business Segment Analysis - The financial segment's net interest-earning assets totaled RMB 266.85 billion, a decrease of 1.01% from the end of the previous year, reflecting a more prudent strategy [5][8]. - The industrial operations segment's revenue contribution increased from 37.52% to 40.16%, effectively offsetting the impact of the financial services decline [5][8]. - The company continues to expand its market presence, with a focus on both domestic and international markets, including Southeast Asia and the Middle East [5][8].

Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating [8] - Target price adjusted to 28.78 yuan from 33.75 yuan [8] Core Views - Lithium and potassium prices decline, dragging down company performance [7] - Copper business expansion expected to become a new growth driver [7] - 2024 H1 revenue decreased by 37% YoY to 1.762 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to shareholders down 35.99% YoY to 1.297 billion yuan [8] - Q2 revenue decreased by 19.36% YoY but increased 86.76% QoQ to 1.147 billion yuan, with net profit down 30.56% YoY but up 45.05% QoQ to 768 million yuan [8] Financial Summary - 2024E revenue forecasted at 3.216 billion yuan, a decrease of 38.5% YoY [6] - 2024E net profit attributable to shareholders forecasted at 2.384 billion yuan, a decrease of 30.3% YoY [6] - 2024E EPS adjusted to 1.51 yuan from 1.65 yuan [8] - 2024E PE ratio at 14.68x, with a PB ratio of 2.32x [6] Business Performance - Potassium chloride revenue in 2024 H1 decreased by 32.7% YoY to 1.122 billion yuan, with production and sales volumes at 522,800 tons and 540,100 tons, respectively [8] - Lithium carbonate revenue in 2024 H1 decreased by 43.4% YoY to 634 million yuan, with production and sales volumes at 5,800 tons and 7,600 tons, respectively [8] Project Progress - Mami Cuo Salt Lake project infrastructure construction is progressing, with resource reserves of approximately 2.18 million tons LCE, expected to reach full production by 2027 [8] - Laos potash mine project is advancing, with initial capacity of 1 million tons/year expected to be completed by 2026 [8] Copper Business Expansion - Dragon Copper Mine Phase II expansion project approved, with Phase I and II combined annual copper production expected to reach 300,000-350,000 tons by 2026 [8] - Investment income from Dragon Copper Mine in 2024 H1 reached 855 million yuan, accounting for 65.94% of net profit attributable to shareholders [8] Industry Comparison - Average 2024E PE ratio for lithium industry peers is 13.41x [12] - Zangge Mining's 2024E PE ratio of 14.68x is higher than peers due to lower resource development costs and copper business expansion potential [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company's performance has been impacted by declining lithium and potassium prices, but ongoing project developments and the expansion of copper business may provide new growth opportunities [8] - The target price has been adjusted to 28.78 yuan, down from the previous forecast of 33.75 yuan, reflecting the anticipated market conditions [6] Financial Summary - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 1.762 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 37%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.297 billion yuan, down 35.99% year-on-year [8] - The company’s revenue from potassium chloride was 1.122 billion yuan, down 32.7% year-on-year, while revenue from lithium carbonate was 634 million yuan, down 43.4% year-on-year [8] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 have been revised to 1.51, 1.53, and 2.32 yuan, respectively [8] Project Development - The company has made progress in its projects, including the completion of preliminary infrastructure for the Marmicuo Salt Lake, which has a resource reserve of approximately 2.18 million tons of LCE, expected to reach full production by 2027 [8] - The Laos potassium salt mine project is advancing through exploration and evaluation, with an initial capacity of 1 million tons per year expected to be established by early 2026 [8] Copper Business Expansion - The company holds a 30.8% stake in the Jilong Copper Mine Phase II expansion project, which is expected to begin trial production in Q1 2026, potentially becoming one of the largest copper mines in China [8] - Investment income from Jilong Copper is projected to significantly contribute to the company's profitability, with reported investment income of 855 million yuan, accounting for 65.94% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [8]

宏 观 研 究 宏 观 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.08.11 | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------|-----------------------------| | | | | | | | | | 需求偏弱，物价压力再次升温 | [Table_Authors] | 韩朝辉 ( 分析师 ) | | | | 021-38038433 | | ——国泰君安宏观高频数据周报（ 20240811 ） | | hanchaohui@gtjas.com | | | 登记编号 | S0880523110001 | | 本报告导读： | | 张剑宇 ( 研究助理 ) | | 宏观高频数据显示，与上周相比，工业品和食品价格总体回落，三大需求皆有放缓。 | | 021-386 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price raised to 27.10 yuan, reflecting a 3% increase from the previous target price of 25.87 yuan [2][3]. Core Views - The company's performance is in line with expectations, with a significant increase in core business profits anticipated. The report highlights the importance of monitoring capacity constraints during peak seasons and the pace of capital increase plans [2]. - The expected net profits for 2024-2026 are projected at 198 million, 251 million, and 315 million yuan respectively, with a consideration of a 36x PE ratio, which is above the industry average of 24x [2]. - The report notes that the company achieved a revenue of 254 million yuan in H1 2024, representing a 52% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 21 million yuan, up 72% year-on-year [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is estimated at 783 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 26.1%. The net profit is projected to be 198 million yuan, reflecting a 43.4% increase [3]. - The company reported a gross profit margin of 29.43% in H1 2024, which is an increase of 4.21 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The report indicates that the company has a total market capitalization of 6.261 billion yuan and a total share capital of 267 million shares [4]. Performance Metrics - The report highlights a significant increase in operating leverage, which contributes to high profit elasticity. Specific business segments showed varied growth rates, with Tianchi Hotel and Blue View Hot Springs growing by 27% and 50% respectively [2]. - The report also notes a decline in gross profit margin due to weather impacts and preemptive costs associated with capacity expansion for peak seasons [2]. - The company’s net asset return rate is projected to improve from -6.3% in 2022 to 18.6% by 2026 [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][4]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for the first half of 2024 decreased by 1.77% year-on-year, primarily due to pressure on financial services, while contributions from industrial operations continued to improve [4][8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 32.10% year-on-year, with the company implementing a mid-term dividend for the first time, reflecting operational resilience [4][8]. - The target price is set at HKD 11.96, corresponding to a P/E ratio of 9.04x for 2024 [8]. Financial Performance Summary - The company achieved revenue of RMB 18.036 billion in the first half of 2024, down 1.77% year-on-year, with financial services revenue declining by 3.47% [8][10]. - The net profit for the same period was RMB 2.085 billion, a decrease of 32.10% year-on-year, mainly due to fair value changes of non-financial assets and one-time cross-border income tax impacts [8][10]. - The average interest yield improved to 8.11%, up 0.04 percentage points year-on-year, while the average cost of interest-bearing liabilities decreased to 4.16%, down 0.10 percentage points year-on-year [8][10]. - The net interest margin (NIM) for the first half of 2024 was 4.47%, an increase of 0.05 percentage points year-on-year [8][10]. Business Segment Performance - The contribution from industrial operations increased, with revenue share rising from 37.52% to 40.16%, effectively offsetting the impact of the financial services downturn [8][10]. - The company’s financial assets decreased by 1.01% year-on-year to RMB 266.4 billion, reflecting a more prudent strategy [8][10]. - The company continues to expand its industrial operations, with significant growth in revenue from its construction and health services segments [8][10].