股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.08.12 ——二季度货币政策执行报告暨银行业监管指标点评 [table_Authors] 刘源(分析师) 021-38677818 liuyuan023804@gtjas.com 登记编号 S0880521060001 本报告导读： 央行发布 24Q2 货币政策执行报告，强调加强逆周期调节，并就丰富货币政策工具 箱、适度收窄利率走廊并防范利率风险、提高 LPR 报价质量等热点问题进行阐释。 投资要点： [央行发布二季度货币政策执行报告，延续 Table_Summary] 7 月政治局会议定调，即"增 强宏观政策取向一致性，加强逆周期调节，增强经济持续回升向好态势"， 并就货币政策框架体系、存贷量价指引、利率及结构性风险防范化解等 进行系统性梳理。 充实货币政策工具箱，进一步健全市场化的利率调控机制。央行提 出将在公开市场操作中逐步增加国债买卖，不仅能丰富完善基础货 币投放方式，还可以通过实际操作和预期引导，避免利率偏离合理 中枢。总结二季度利率调控机制系列改革，明确 OMO 政策利率地 位并改为数量型招标，新增临时正、逆回购操作确立短期限窄幅利 率走廊，调整 ...

[Table_Title] 策略研究报告2024年8月12日 黄凯鸿 +852 2509 7214 kaihong.huang@gtjas.com.hk [Table_Summary] 港股韧性已现推荐布局，向科技要弹性 日元扰动下，港股超跌反弹策略不全适用，医疗和公用事业等表现更好 -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 7月11日至8月5日股指表现 8月5日至8月8日股指表现 2.35% 2.92% 2.40% 4.99% 2.34% 3.58% 3.18% 1.91% 0.84% -1.16% 3.10% 2.73% 1.23% 3.46% 1.18% 0.17% -1.14% -2.10% -4.63% -5.17% -5.87% -6.24% -7.45% -8.65% -9.13% -6.36% -9.66% -7.77% -12.62% -16.59% 数据来源：iFinD，国泰君安国际 上周日元套息交易逻辑扭转，海外经济衰退担忧升温，避险逻辑驱动海外资金回流，导致全球资 产价格下跌，港股震荡企稳全周收涨。日元被动升值下套息交易平仓，引发全球各类资产 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of CNY 39.71 [5] Core Views - The company is a leader in the high-end sportswear and fashion industry, with strong product and brand advantages. Its 2023 performance showed impressive growth, with revenue and profit increasing by 23% and 25% year-over-year, respectively [4][13] - The company's multi-brand strategy is expected to drive growth, supported by store expansion and improved store efficiency [4] - The company has made significant progress in internationalization, acquiring luxury brands CERRUTI 1881 and KENT&CURWEN in 2023, with new products set to launch in 2024 [13] - The company's competitive advantages include its high-quality, functional, and fashionable products, rapid store expansion, and effective multi-layered marketing strategies [13] Financial Performance and Forecast - The company's revenue for 2023 was CNY 3.536 billion, with a net profit of CNY 911 million, representing year-over-year growth of 22.6% and 25.2%, respectively [10] - The report forecasts revenue for 2024-2026 to be CNY 4.187 billion, CNY 4.912 billion, and CNY 5.733 billion, with net profits of CNY 1.139 billion, CNY 1.368 billion, and CNY 1.633 billion, respectively [10][16] - The company's gross margin is expected to remain around 79% from 2024 to 2026, supported by stable discount levels [15] Industry Analysis - The golf apparel market is a niche but growing segment, with increasing participation and consumer spending driven by the rising middle class [30][35] - The company holds a dominant position in the domestic golf apparel market, with a market share of 53.02% in 2020 [45] - The company's products are increasingly being worn in casual, commuting, and business settings, expanding their appeal beyond traditional golfing scenarios [32] Competitive Advantages - The company has a strong product portfolio, including its main brand, golf series, and Venice Carnival series, which cater to different consumer segments [47][49] - The company has a robust distribution network, with 1,255 stores as of 2023, including 607 directly operated stores and 648 franchised stores [45][65] - The company's marketing strategies, including collaborations with the Forbidden City, sports sponsorships, and celebrity endorsements, have significantly enhanced its brand influence [54][59][61] Future Outlook - The company aims to achieve revenue of over CNY 30 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of approximately 24% [13] - The company plans to focus on internationalization and high-end positioning, leveraging its multi-brand strategy to drive long-term growth [13] - The company will continue to expand its store network and improve store efficiency, with a focus on both high-tier cities and lower-tier markets [65]

股 票 研 究 ——24 年半年报业绩点评 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.08.12 | --- | --- | |-------|-----------------------------------| | | | | | [table_Authors] 庞钧文 ( 分析师 ) | | | | | | 021-38674703 | | | pangjunwen@gtjas.com | | | 登记编号 S0880517120001 | 周奥铮(研究助理) 010-83939782 zhouaozheng026728@gtjas.co m S0880122080013 本报告导读： 公司 24H1 业绩符合预期，电力设备海外业务（直接+间接）比例达 26%，毛利率维 持高位达 59.60%，维持"谨慎增持"评级。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 维持"谨慎增持"评级。公司 24 年半年报符合预期，维持公司 24- 26 年 EPS 预测为 0.76/0.92/1.10 元。由于公司在分接开关领域保持 突出的市占率，海外业务进展顺利，充分受益全球电力设备上行周 期，参考可比公司估值 ...

股 票 研 究 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.08.12 证 券 研 究 报 告 ——分众传媒 2024 年中报业绩点评 业绩增长稳健，积极开拓下沉市场 分众传媒(002027) 传播文化业 [Table_Industry] /社会服务 | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------|-----------|-------| | [Table_Invest] 评级： | | 增持 | | | 上次评级: | 增持 | | [Table_Target] 目标价格： | | 8.73 | | | 上次预测: | 8.73 | | [当前价格： Table_CurPrice] | | 5.78 | | --- | --- | |----------|---------------------| | | 陈俊希(分析师) | | | 021-38032025 | | | chenjunxi@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520120009 | 本报告导读： 公司媒体点位和品牌传播优势明显，在生活圈媒体中保持龙头地位，同时积极 ...

高屋建瓴定基调，绿电环境溢价凸显 [Table_Industry] 公用事业 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.08.12 ——《关于加快经济社会发展全面绿色转型的意见》点评 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-----------------------------|----------------------------|-------------------------| | | 于鸿光(分析师) | 孙辉贤(研究助理) | 汪玥(研究助理) | | | 021-38031730 | 021-38038670 | 021-38031030 | | | yuhongguang025906@gtjas.com | sunhuixian026739@gtjas.com | wangyue028681@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880522020001 | S0880122070052 | S0880123070143 | [细分行业评级 Table_subIndustry] ...

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 全球视角看煤炭，无需过度担忧 [Table_Industry] 煤炭 | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------|-------------|------------------------| | | 股票研究 /[ | Table_Date] 2024.08.11 | | [Table_Invest] 评级： | | 增持 | | | 上次评级: | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | |----------|------------------------------|-----------------------------| | | [table_Authors] 黄涛(分析师) | 邓铖琦(分析师) | | | 021-38674879 | 010-83939825 | | | huangtao@gtjas.com | dengchengqi024452@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S08805150 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8][9]. Core Views - The company's Q2 2024 performance met expectations, with a focus on upstream PTMEG layout to solidify cost advantages. The demand for elastic fabrics is driving growth in spandex demand, and the industry supply-demand dynamics are continuously improving, positioning the company to benefit significantly [7][8]. - The company has adjusted its 2024 EPS forecast to 0.64 CNY (previously 0.59 CNY) and maintains EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026 at 0.72 CNY and 0.83 CNY, respectively. The target price for 2024 is set at 9.90 CNY, based on a PE ratio of 15.47 [8][9]. Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - 2022A: Revenue of 25,884 million CNY, Net Profit of 2,844 million CNY - 2023A: Revenue of 26,298 million CNY, Net Profit of 2,478 million CNY - 2024E: Revenue of 27,778 million CNY, Net Profit of 3,183 million CNY - 2025E: Revenue of 30,988 million CNY, Net Profit of 3,557 million CNY - 2026E: Revenue of 35,619 million CNY, Net Profit of 4,128 million CNY [6][10]. - **Key Financial Ratios**: - Net Asset Return (ROE) is projected to be 11.7% in 2024, 12.0% in 2025, and 12.7% in 2026 [6][10]. - The current Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is 15.08 for 2023, decreasing to 11.74 in 2024 and further to 9.05 in 2026 [6][10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is a leader in the spandex, adipic acid, and raw liquid industries, leveraging its cost advantages and scale to maintain profitability despite price pressures in key products [8][9]. - The company is expanding its production capacity in BDO and PTMEG, which is expected to further enhance its cost advantages [8][9].

2024 年 08 月 12 日 晨會紀要 國泰君安晨報摘要 2024 年 08 月 12 日 國泰君安證券股份有限公司 研究所 周津宇 電話：021-38674924 郵箱：zhoujinyu011178@gtjas.com 登記編號：S0880516080007 目錄 今日重點推薦 ...................................................................................................................................................2 ¾ 事件點評：《通脹溫和回升需要更加堅實的基礎》2024-08-09................................................................................ 2 ¾ 公司更新報告：盛美上海（688082）《AI 驅動 ECP 打開第二成長曲線，公司全面佈局海外業務》2024-08-11 ....................................... ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [7][9]. Core Views - The company's Q2 2024 performance met expectations, with a focus on enhancing upstream PTMEG layout to solidify cost advantages. The demand for spandex is expected to grow due to the increasing need for elastic fabrics, leading to an improved supply-demand balance in the industry, which the company is likely to benefit from [8][9]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 25,884 million, with a projected increase to 26,298 million in 2023, and further growth to 27,778 million in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.6% [6]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company decreased from 2,844 million in 2022 to 2,478 million in 2023, but is expected to rebound to 3,183 million in 2024, marking a growth of 28.4% [6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 0.50 in 2023 to 0.64 in 2024, and further to 0.72 in 2025 [6]. Target Price and Valuation - The target price for the company is set at 9.90, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 15.47 times for 2024 [9]. - The current market price is 7.53, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.5 [4][14]. Performance Metrics - The company achieved a revenue of 137.44 million and a net profit of 15.18 million in the first half of 2024, representing year-on-year growth of 8.89% and 11.74%, respectively [9]. - In Q2 2024, the company reported revenue of 70.87 million and a net profit of 8.35 million, with year-on-year increases of 10.21% and 14.78% [9]. Industry Position - The company is recognized as a leader in the spandex, adipic acid, and raw liquid industries, benefiting from cost advantages and scale [9]. - The demand for spandex is projected to grow at a rate of 7-8%, with the supply side nearing the end of an expansion cycle, indicating a favorable industry outlook [9].