股 票 研 究 [Table_Industry] 建筑工程业 [table_Authors] 韩其成(分析师) 郭浩然(分析师) 021-38676162 010-83939793 hanqicheng8@gtjas.com guohaoran025968@gtjas.com 登记编号 S0880516030004 S0880524020002 2024.07.10 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 财税改革或提升建筑一利五率盈利与估值 [Table_subIndustry] 细分行业评级 行 业 专 题 研 究 [Table_Report] 相关报告 建筑工程业《财税改革利好中国中铁和中国 交建，电力中国能建和中国电建》 2024.06.30 建筑工程业《财政地产等建筑产业链全景数 据库 20240630》 2024.06.30 建筑工程业《电力中国能建和中国电建，车 路协同华设集团和深城交》 2024.06.23 建筑工程业《财政地产等建筑产业链全景数 据库 20240623》 2024.06.23 建筑工程业《财税改革释放增长空间，聚焦 科技和高股息龙头》 2024.06.1 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an **Overweight** rating for the coal industry, consistent with the previous rating [1] Core Views - The coal industry over the past 30 years has been a typical example of cyclical investment, closely following the pulse of economic fluctuations [2] - The investment logic of the coal industry has shifted from a cyclical framework to a focus on dividend assets, driven by structural changes in supply and demand [2] - The cyclical nature of coal is expected to weaken starting in 2024, with coal prices entering a narrow fluctuation range by 2025, reflecting a stable long-term supply-demand balance [2] - In the context of a low-interest-rate environment and asset scarcity, the attractiveness of coal dividend assets is increasing [2] Industry Development History - The coal industry has always followed the trajectory of China's economic development, serving as a "power source" for the nation's growth [9] - Coal production has grown significantly, from 3243 million tons at the founding of the PRC to 471 billion tons in 2023, with an average annual growth rate of 5.4% [9] - The industry has transitioned from a fragmented and inefficient structure to one with higher market concentration, driven by supply-side reforms and mergers and acquisitions [9][15] - Supply-side reforms have eliminated 810 million tons of outdated capacity, and the number of coal mines has been reduced to around 4,300, with large-scale mines accounting for over 85% of production [9] Market Concentration and Mergers - Market concentration has increased significantly, with the formation of several large coal enterprises through mergers and acquisitions [15] - Strategic mergers, such as the formation of the National Energy Investment Group and the Shandong Energy Group, have led to the creation of companies with annual production exceeding 200 million tons [11] - The top 8 coal companies produced approximately 22.3 billion tons of raw coal in 2023, accounting for 85% of national production [9] Pricing Mechanism - The coal pricing mechanism has evolved from a government-controlled system to a more market-oriented one, with the introduction of mechanisms like the "base price + floating price" model [21] - The dual-track pricing system for coal was abolished in 2013, and the current pricing model aims to balance market demand and supply [21] Future Outlook - The coal industry is expected to face limited new supply capacity, with domestic supply losing upward elasticity and imports unlikely to grow significantly [2] - Demand for coal is expected to remain stable in the medium term, with coal continuing to play a crucial role in ensuring energy security [2] - The industry is gradually moving away from cyclical fluctuations, with a clear and stable long-term supply-demand structure [2] - The low-interest-rate environment and asset scarcity are expected to enhance the attractiveness of coal dividend assets [2] Recommended Stocks - High-quality companies with stable profitability and predictability are recommended, including **Shaanxi Coal**, **China Shenhua**, and **China Coal Energy** [2] - Companies with integrated coal and power operations, such as **Xinji Energy**, are also recommended [2] - Long-term coking coal contracts are favored, with recommendations including **Hengyuan Coal**, **Pingmei**, **Huaibei Mining**, and **Shanxi Coking Coal** [2] - Companies with strong state-owned enterprise reforms, such as **Shanxi Coal International**, are also highlighted [2]

证书编号: S0880519080009 投资建议：历次财政体制改革需要财政IT建设为其提供数字化落地抓手，财税体制的新变化也为财税信息化带来新的建设需求，2023年底中央 经济工作会议与2024年政府工作报告均提出谋划新一轮财税体制改革。行业格局上看，财政端由于专业化程度更高，市场竞争格局更为集中， CR5接近50%；税务端市场份额也呈现向头部企业集中的态势，由于市场空间广阔，SaaS化商业前景可期，市场整体呈现出良性竞争的健康态 势。 财税IT：与时俱进，为财税改革提供数字化落地抓手。财税体制是指政府以税收作为主要财政来源以实现政府职能的相关举措和制度。在历次 财税体制改革过程中，财税IT与时俱进，为改革提供数字化落地抓手，覆盖收支两端，推进政企协同。2023年底中央经济工作会议提出谋划新 一轮财税体制改革。2024年政府工作报告提到要谋划新一轮财税体制改革，落实金融体制改革部署，加大对高质量发展的财税金融支持。6月 25日国家审计署在〈2023年度中央预算执行和其他财政收支的审计工作报告〉中再次提及谋划新一轮财税体制改革。 财政瑞：专业性强，预算管理一体化2.0带来新需求。2002年以来的"金财工程" ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入 | 2,471 | 2,461 | 2,954 | 3,485 | 3,938 | | (+/-)% | 7.3% | -0.4% | 20.0% | 18.0% | 13.0% | | 净利润（归母） | 447 | 431 | 528 | 635 | 733 | | (+/-)% | 17.5% | -3.5% | 22.4% | 20.3% | 15.5% | | 每股净收益（元） | 1.12 | 1.08 | 1.32 | 1.59 | 1.83 | | 净资产收益率 (%) | 19.5% | 17.3% | 20.1% | 21.5% | 22.1% | | 市盈率 ( 现价 & 最新股本摊薄） | 16.49 ...

| | | | | |---------------------------------------------|----------------------------|-----------|------------| | | | | 石油/能源 | | | [Table_Invest] 评级: | | 增持 | | 业绩大幅增长,看好制冷剂景气周期 | [Table_Target] 目标价格: | 上次评级: | 增持28.87 | | 2024 年中报预告点评 | [当前价格: Table_CurPrice] | 上次预测: | 28.8723.95 | | 陈传双(研究助理) | | | | | 021-38676675chenchuanshuang027603@gtjas.com | [Table_Date] | | 2024.07.10 | 登记编号 S0880522120008 S0880123060038 本报告导读: | | | |-----------------------------------------------------------|------------------| ...

资讯汇总 摘要: 徐淋(分析师) 上海区域上市公司现金分红家数减少，但分红比例有所提升。 上海三大先导产业一级融资额位居全国前列。 【上海产经观察】资本市场半年度总结 zhaozijian@gtjas.com 登记编号 S0880520060003 021-38677826 登记编号 S0880523090005 2024.07.06 【资本市场动态】字节跳动旗下"懂车帝"融资 58 亿 2024.07.02 【双碳周报】全国碳市场周交易总量大幅上涨 2024.07.01 【科技周报】首个支持 30 种方言混说语音大模型 亮相 2024.06.28 【双碳周报】国内试点碳市场周交易总量继续上 涨 2024.06.26 2024 年上半年，上市公司陆续发布分红方案。根据相关公告，上海区域 439 家上市 公司中，251 家公告并进行了现金分红，较上年度减少 12.2%，表明上市公司的经营 业绩压力增大；但分红比例（中位数）提升 5.4 个百分点至 36.1%，表明盈利企业的 分红意愿有所提升。 2024 年上半年，共 27 家企业完成 IPO 过会，其中江苏和浙江数量最多，各有 8 家和 6 家，上海则未有企业 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7]. Core Views - In June 2024, the company's sales area showed significant improvement, with luxury projects in first-tier cities driving sales revenue and average prices to historical highs. The company adopted a cautious approach to land acquisition, resulting in a land acquisition-to-sales ratio of only 0.09 [5][6]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In June 2024, the company achieved a cumulative sales revenue of 148.4 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 17.6%. However, June's sales revenue reached 46.7 billion RMB, marking a year-on-year increase of 40.6%. The improvement in June's sales is attributed to changes in the sales structure, similar to the logic observed in March [6]. - The average selling price in June increased by 32.1% year-on-year and 63.2% month-on-month, reaching 31,740 RMB per square meter, the second-highest since 2020. This increase was primarily driven by high-priced luxury properties, which accounted for over 60% of total sales [6]. Land Acquisition - The company has significantly slowed its land acquisition pace, with a land acquisition-to-sales ratio of 0.09 in the first half of 2024. A total of six new land reserves were added, corresponding to a total equity construction area of 1.15 million square meters and land transfer fees of 12 billion RMB [6]. - Compared to 2023, the land acquisition-to-sales ratio has dropped sharply from 0.50 to 0.09, indicating a more cautious investment strategy [6]. Financial Projections - The report maintains earnings per share (EPS) projections for 2024-2026 at 2.41 RMB, 2.62 RMB, and 2.89 RMB, respectively [6].

股 票 研 究 居民持续增配固收,合规展业更重要 ——2024 年 5 月财富管理业务月报 | | | | | |----------------|--------------------|---------------------------|---------------------------| | [table_Authors | 刘欣琦](分析师) | 王思玥(研究助理) | 吴浩东(研究助理) | | | 021-38676647 | 021-38031024 | 010-83939780 | | | liuxinqi@gtjas.com | wangsiyue028676@gtjas.com | wuhaodong029780@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880515050001 | S0880123070151 | S0880124060027 | [Table_Industry] 投资银行业与经纪业 2024.07.09 [Table_Invest] 评级: 增持 上次评级: 增持 [Table_subIndustry] 细分行业评级 行 业 事 件 快 评 本报告导读: ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company [1][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to maintain a net profit CAGR of around 8% from 2024E to 2026E, with a current dividend yield of 6% [3][7]. - The company has a strong market position in the instant noodle and beverage sectors, with a robust brand pricing power and a diversified product portfolio [3][7]. - The new consumption trends are driving industry expansion, with stable growth in instant noodles and diversified beverage offerings [3][7]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The company has consistently provided high shareholder returns, maintaining a dividend payout ratio of 100% or more, with a current dividend yield of 6% [3][7]. - The company has developed several billion-dollar products and has a strong brand pricing capability [3][7]. - The expected EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 0.61, 0.65, and 0.70 CNY respectively, with a current PE ratio of 14X for 2024 [3][7]. Company Overview - Founded in 1992, the company has grown significantly, achieving revenue of 804.2 billion CNY and a profit of 31 billion CNY by 2023 [3][8]. - The main revenue sources are instant noodles (40%) and beverages (60%) [3][12]. - The company has maintained a gross margin around 30% and a net margin fluctuating between 2% and 7% [3][12]. Competitive Advantages - The company holds a leading market share in the instant noodle sector (approximately 45%) and in the RTD tea market (approximately 50%) [3][19]. - The company has a well-established distribution network with over 4 million retail outlets, significantly surpassing competitors [3][19]. - The company has demonstrated strong brand pricing power, having raised prices multiple times over the past five years [3][24][26]. Growth Potential - The company is expected to see stable growth in the instant noodle segment and moderate growth in the beverage segment, driven by new consumption trends and product innovations [3][7]. - The anticipated CAGR for revenue from 2024 to 2026 is around 4% [3][7]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for convenient food options and health-conscious beverages [3][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating and raises the target price to 22.40 CNY [2][3]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from significant price increases in copper and gold, alongside production growth and cost reductions, leading to a substantial increase in performance [2]. - The company is gradually building a diversified asset portfolio in copper, gold, lithium, and molybdenum, enhancing its investment value [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be between 145.5 billion CNY and 154.5 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 41% to 50% [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be between 31.575 billion CNY and 37.215 billion CNY for 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 49.5% [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024 is adjusted to 1.19 CNY, with further projections of 1.40 CNY for 2025 and 1.58 CNY for 2026 [2][3]. Production and Pricing - The company reported a production increase in gold, copper, and silver for the first half of 2024, with year-on-year growth of 9.6%, 5.3%, and 1.3% respectively [2]. - The average selling prices for copper, gold, and silver increased by 10%, 20%, and 28% year-on-year in the first half of 2024 [2]. Cost Management - The average sales cost for gold and copper in Q1 2024 was 223 CNY per gram and 22,400 CNY per ton, showing a decrease of 7% and 10% respectively compared to the previous quarter [2]. - The company is expected to maintain a downward trend in costs in Q2 2024 [2]. Competitive Advantage - The company has a significant cost advantage, with its copper C1 cost and gold AISC cost ranking in the top 20% globally [2]. - The company plans to increase its gold and copper production to 90 tons and 1.17 million tons by 2025, representing a growth of 32% and 16% respectively compared to 2023 [2]. Diversification Strategy - The company currently holds substantial resources in copper and gold, with 75 million tons and 30,000 tons respectively, and is expanding into lithium, molybdenum, and silver [2]. - The diversified asset portfolio is expected to enhance the company's investment value, especially with the anticipated price resonance of copper and gold during the upcoming interest rate cuts [2].