Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. **Model Name**: Black-Litterman (BL) Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The BL model integrates market equilibrium returns with subjective views to generate optimal portfolio weights for asset allocation[1] - **Model Construction Process**: The BL model combines the equilibrium returns (π) derived from the CAPM with investor views (Q) using the following formula: $ E(R) = \pi + \tau \cdot \Sigma \cdot (\Sigma + P^T \cdot \Omega^{-1} \cdot P)^{-1} \cdot (Q - P \cdot \pi) $ - $ E(R) $: Expected returns after incorporating views - $ \pi $: Equilibrium returns - $ \tau $: Scalar representing the uncertainty in the prior estimate of returns - $ \Sigma $: Covariance matrix of asset returns - $ P $: Matrix linking views to assets - $ \Omega $: Covariance matrix of the views - $ Q $: Vector of views on asset returns[1] - **Model Evaluation**: The BL model is effective in combining subjective views with market data, making it suitable for dynamic asset allocation[1] 2. **Model Name**: Risk Parity Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The risk parity model aims to allocate portfolio weights such that each asset contributes equally to the portfolio's overall risk[1] - **Model Construction Process**: The portfolio weights are determined by solving the following optimization problem: $ \min \sum_{i=1}^n \left( \frac{w_i \cdot \sigma_i}{\sum_{j=1}^n w_j \cdot \sigma_j} - \frac{1}{n} \right)^2 $ - $ w_i $: Weight of asset $ i $ - $ \sigma_i $: Volatility of asset $ i $ - $ n $: Number of assets in the portfolio This ensures that the risk contribution of each asset is equalized across the portfolio[1] - **Model Evaluation**: The risk parity model is robust in diversifying risk across assets, making it particularly useful in volatile markets[1] 3. **Model Name**: Macro Factor-Based Asset Allocation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses macroeconomic factors to predict asset returns and allocate weights accordingly[1] - **Model Construction Process**: - Identify key macroeconomic factors (e.g., GDP growth, inflation, interest rates) - Use regression or machine learning techniques to estimate the relationship between these factors and asset returns - Construct a portfolio by optimizing weights based on the predicted returns and risk constraints[1] - **Model Evaluation**: The macro factor-based model is effective in capturing the impact of economic conditions on asset performance, providing a forward-looking approach to allocation[1] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. **Black-Litterman (BL) Strategy 1** - Cumulative Return: 4.23% (YTD), 0.64% (June)[2] - Maximum Drawdown: 0.78%[2] - Volatility: 1.18%[2] 2. **Black-Litterman (BL) Strategy 2** - Cumulative Return: 3.96% (YTD), 0.58% (June)[2] - Maximum Drawdown: 0.65%[2] - Volatility: 1.09%[2] 3. **Risk Parity Strategy** - Cumulative Return: 4.07% (YTD), 0.3% (June)[2] - Maximum Drawdown: 0.23%[2] - Volatility: 0.82%[2] 4. **Macro Factor-Based Strategy** - Cumulative Return: 3.3% (YTD), 0.22% (June)[2] - Maximum Drawdown: 0.27%[2] - Volatility: 0.82%[2]

长周期向上资产:1)油服设备:上游资本开支高增,看好油服行业高景气延续。24年的石油企业资本开支维持高位,深海油服增速高于陆上 油服市场,北美ESG推手助力柴驱压裂设备转型升级,建议关注头部厂商电驱压裂设备渗透进程。2)集装箱:景气向上叠加贸易拥挤,集装箱 需求高增。2010-2014年集装箱销量均值在300万TEU,根据12-15年的使用寿命,预计2024-2029年迎来更新周期,叠加红海事件延续、 美国补库需求,2024年集装箱销量有望达400万TEU。3)船舶:中船系低价船交付基本接近尾声,叠加钢价/汇率/船价三因素共振,预计Q2 船企盈利明显改善,优质船企民品毛利率有望修复至15-20%。 出海:1)注塑机:4-5月增速保持双位数,出口的持续增长表明海外需求的持续高景气,以及国内注塑机公司竞争力逐步增强,注塑机贸易顺 差进一步拉大。2)工具:有望进入补库阶段。家得宝24Q1库存同比下降9%,处于持续去库当中,补库订单可期。此外,当前美国30年房贷 利率处于历史高位,未来伴随美国降息有望下降,拉动新房和成屋销售,利好工具出口。3)纺织设备:周期上行,出口需求改善。2012年以 来缝制机械行业经历了3轮周 ...

股 票 研 究 销售放缓,谨慎加码下沉市场 ——2024 年 6 月经营数据点评 | | | | | |-----------------|--------------------|---------------------------|----------------------| | [table_Authors] | 谢皓宇(分析师) | 黄可意(研究助理) | 白淑媛(分析师) | | | 010-83939826 | 010-83939815 | 021-38675923 | | | xiehaoyu@gtjas.com | huangkeyi028691@gtjas.com | baishuyuan@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880518010002 | S0880123070129 | S0880518010004 | 本报告导读: 2024 年 6 月公司销售边际走弱,和行业走势出现分化,与公司下沉市场的布局特点存 在关联;上半年公司拿地投资态度谨慎,选择加码部分已布局重点城市。 投资要点: [Table_Summary] 2024 年 6 月,公司销售边际小幅走弱,拿地聚 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, particularly focusing on domestic liquor and beverage companies with strong brand power and resource advantages [1]. Core Insights - Japanese liquor companies such as Suntory, Asahi, and Takara have successfully expanded overseas by leveraging differentiated positioning, acquisitions, joint ventures, and channel partnerships, providing valuable insights for China's liquor and beverage internationalization [4][9]. - The report emphasizes the increasing international revenue share of these Japanese companies, with Suntory's overseas revenue growing from 199.5 billion yen in 2007 to 1.5 trillion yen in 2023, representing a CAGR of 13.5% [9][10]. - The report suggests that domestic liquor companies like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye should focus on overseas expansion, as the domestic market has reached saturation [8][35]. Summary by Sections 1. Continuous Expansion of Japanese Liquor Companies - Suntory, Asahi, and Takara have seen their overseas revenue share increase significantly, with Suntory's overseas revenue share rising from 13.3% to 51.6% from 2007 to 2023 [9][10]. - Asahi's overseas revenue grew from 1.4 trillion yen to 2.8 trillion yen, with a revenue share increase from 3.9% to 50.8% during the same period [10][11]. - Takara's overseas revenue increased from 210 billion yen to 351 billion yen, with a revenue share rising from 12.9% to 48.1% [12]. 2. Opportunities for Going Global - Suntory has enhanced its international profile through awards and cultural exports, positioning itself as a high-end oriental liquor brand [14][15]. - Asahi has optimized its brewing processes to create strong product offerings, leading to significant international recognition and expansion [19][20]. - Takara has capitalized on Japanese immigration and culture to establish a presence in the U.S. market, focusing on traditional Japanese sake [21][22]. 3. Paths to International Expansion - The primary strategies for international expansion include acquisitions, joint ventures, and strategic partnerships [23]. - Suntory has utilized acquisitions to strengthen its international brand presence and distribution networks, while also forming joint ventures to leverage local resources [24][26]. - Asahi has pursued a multi-phase strategy, initially focusing on beer exports, then diversifying into soft drinks and high-end products through acquisitions [29][30]. - Takara has emphasized local production and distribution partnerships to build its overseas sales network [33][34]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends increasing holdings in leading domestic liquor companies such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, as well as beer and beverage companies like Qingdao Beer and Chongqing Beer [35][36].

打通政策向利润的传导链 2024.06.28 2024.07.11[Table_Authors] 韩朝辉(分析师) 021-38038433 hanchaohui@gtjas.com 登记编号 S0880523110001 ——理解央行创设临时回购工具 本报告导读： 2024.07.01 落实缩窄利率走廊，降低银行资金成本………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 3 风险提示 . 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 of 6 1. 央行创设临时回购工具 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 % 6个月 9个月 1年 2年 3年 5年 7年 10年 20年 30年 数据来源：Wind，国泰君安证券研究 金融监管政策超预期 本公司具有中国证监会核准的证券投资咨询业务资格 本公司利用信息隔离墙控制内部一个或多个领域、部门或关联机构之间的信息流动。因此，投资者应注意，在法律许可的情 况下，本公司及其所属关联机构可能会持有报告中提到的公司所发行的证券或期权并进行证券或期权交易，也可能为这些公 司提供或者争取提供投资银行、财务顾问或者金融产 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 20.98, maintaining the previous rating of "Buy" [2][3]. Core Views - The company's performance exceeded expectations, with strong orders and sales. The forecast for EPS for 2024-2026 has been raised to 1.21, 1.40, and 1.67 yuan respectively, up from the previous estimates of 1.14, 1.35, and 1.60 yuan. The target price remains at 20.98 yuan, and the recommendation is to "Buy" [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit of approximately 4.37-5.72 billion yuan for H1 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.0% to 70.0%, with a midpoint estimate of 5.05 billion yuan, a 50% increase year-on-year. For Q2 2024, the expected net profit is 2.41-3.75 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.0% to 57.5% [3]. - The expected net profit after deducting non-recurring items for H1 2024 is approximately 4.30-5.65 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year growth of 22% to 61% [3]. Order and Market Expansion - The company is actively expanding its market presence, optimizing product structure and design, improving product quality, and enhancing operational efficiency, which contributes to the high growth in profits. The high-margin businesses in offshore shipbuilding, oil and gas development, and LNG are expected to increase their share of orders [3]. - The order structure is continuously improving, with sufficient orders on hand and new orders being prepared for 2025. The company is seeing balanced order intake across various downstream sectors, which is a key driver for profit growth [3]. Industry Outlook - The traditional downstream sectors are benefiting from stable global power generation and increasing energy demand, which is driving high demand for industrial valves. The LNG and hydrogen sectors are also seeing increased demand due to geopolitical factors and energy transitions [3]. - The domestic LNG and FPSO ship orders are increasing, and the industry is expected to accelerate domestic substitution. The nuclear power sector is projected to disclose 6-8 new nuclear units annually, with each unit requiring valves valued at approximately 500 million yuan [3]. Financial Projections - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 5,544 million yuan in 2023 to 6,930 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 25.0%. Net profit is expected to rise from 722 million yuan in 2023 to 923 million yuan in 2024, a growth of 27.9% [5]. - The projected EPS for 2024 is 1.21 yuan, with a net asset return rate of 22.1% [5]. Market Data - The stock has a market capitalization of 12,318 million yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.07 based on the current price [25].

Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating [3][5] Core Views - The company's 2024H1 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue projected to be between RMB 7.86 billion and RMB 8.08 billion, a year-on-year increase of 43.95% to 47.98% [3][8] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be between RMB 1.6 billion and RMB 1.73 billion, a year-on-year increase of 44.39% to 56.12% [3][8] - The energy drink segment continues to gain market share, while the new product "Bushuila" has seen significant growth, becoming the company's second growth curve [3][8] - The scale effect of new products has driven further improvement in profitability, with the net profit margin for 2024Q2 estimated to be between 20.36% and 24.35% [3][8] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024E is projected to be RMB 15.523 billion, a year-on-year increase of 37.8% [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024E is expected to be RMB 2.828 billion, a year-on-year increase of 38.6% [4] - EPS for 2024E is forecasted to be RMB 7.07, a year-on-year increase of 39% [3][4] - ROE for 2024E is projected to be 36.4% [4] Market Performance - The stock price range over the past 52 weeks is between RMB 162.67 and RMB 230.95 [6] - The total market capitalization is RMB 84.194 billion [6] - The current price is RMB 210.48, with a target price of RMB 271.18 [5] Industry Analysis - The company operates in the food and beverage/consumer staples sector [4] - The energy drink segment benefits from the trend of faster-paced lifestyles, while the new product "Bushuila" caters to the increasing health demands for electrolyte replenishment [3][8] Financial Forecast - Revenue for 2026E is projected to be RMB 24.038 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 23.2% [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2026E is expected to be RMB 4.61 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 26.4% [4] - EPS for 2026E is forecasted to be RMB 11.52, with a year-on-year increase of 26% [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the company [8][24]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company's H1 revenue is approximately 55.93 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.3%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is 570 million yuan, an increase of 12% [2][7]. - The report anticipates EPS growth of 6%, 11%, and 8% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with a target price set at 10.42 yuan [2][8]. - The company has shown improved performance in Q2, with a revenue of approximately 32.18 billion yuan, down 3.9%, and a net profit of 305 million yuan, up 17.4% [2][7]. Financial Performance Summary - H1 revenue decreased by 13.3% to approximately 55.93 billion yuan, while net profit increased by 12% to 570 million yuan [2][7]. - The report estimates that the net profit margin for H1 is approximately 1.02%, an increase of 0.23 percentage points [2][7]. - The company has a projected net profit of 1.087 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a growth of 5.6% [10]. Business Segment Performance - The report indicates that the shipbuilding and shipping, ecological environment, and textile and apparel sectors have performed well, contributing to the overall profit growth [2][7]. - The company has secured multiple orders in the shipbuilding sector, with a total of 94 vessels ordered, indicating strong future growth potential [2][7]. - The report notes that the supply chain segment has seen a narrowing revenue decline and further optimization of profit margins [2][7]. Valuation and Dividend - The company is characterized as a low-valuation, high-dividend central enterprise, with a dividend payout of 431 million yuan and a dividend rate of 41.9% [2][7]. - The current PE ratio is noted to be 8.9 times, indicating that the stock is undervalued [2][7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the electronic components industry, consistent with the previous rating [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that autonomous driving is entering a commercial promotion phase, with both domestic and international efforts advancing [1]. - Baidu's "Luobo Kuaipao" service has seen a significant increase in order volume, with a total of 6 million orders as of April 19, 2024, and a 25% year-on-year growth in autonomous driving orders for Q1 2024 [3]. - The report anticipates that Tesla will launch its "Robotaxi" on August 8, 2024, further increasing the penetration rate of autonomous driving [2][3]. - The report suggests that the industry trend is clear, and the supply chain is expected to accelerate development, with various policies being introduced to stimulate the growth of autonomous driving [3]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - Baidu's "Luobo Kuaipao" has received positive feedback for its quiet, comfortable, and cost-effective service, aiming for breakeven in Wuhan by the end of 2024 and profitability by 2025 [3]. - The sixth-generation autonomous vehicle, priced at approximately 204,600 yuan, has seen a 60% reduction in overall costs compared to the previous generation, which will further promote the commercialization of "Luobo Kuaipao" [3]. - The report recommends focusing on upstream components of the electronic industry, such as sensors and connectors, as well as companies related to Tesla's supply chain, including Electric Connection Technology, Lianchuang Electronics, Dongshan Precision, and Shiyun Circuit [3]. Related Reports - The report references several related studies, including topics on semiconductor mergers and acquisitions, the recovery of industry prosperity, and the impact of Apple's AI initiatives on mobile manufacturers' profitability [4].

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 公 司 更 新 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 | | | | | | | | |----------------|---------------------------------|----------------------------------|------------------------------|----------------------------|------------|------------| | | [Table_Industry] | | | | 传播文化业 | /社会服务 | | 万达电影 | (002739) | | | [Table_Invest] 评级: | | 增持 | | | | | | [Table_Target] 目标价格: | 上次评级: | 增持17.45 | | | | ——万达电影 2024 | 年中报预告点评 | [当前价格: Table_CurPrice] | 上次预测: | 18.5211.93 | | [table_A ...