地产销售季末改善，旅游出行景气回升。上周（06.24-06.30）中观景气表现分化，景气回升：1）受益地产新政和年中冲量影响，上周新房、二手房销售显著改 善，后续持续性仍待观察；2）暑期临近，旅游出行景气回升，百度迁徙规模指数、国内航班执飞架次、海南旅游价格指数环比均有所回升。景气回落：1）建筑施 工需求仍偏弱，钢材、玻璃价格下跌，水泥发运率、石油沥青发运率仍处低位，显示实物工作量形成仍偏缓；2）"618"大促后货运物流景气有所回落，全国公路 货运流量指数、高速货车通行量、快递揽收/投递量环比均有所回落。 人流物流：暑期出行热度回升，货运物流景气回落。10大主要城市地铁客运量环比/同比变化+0.6%/+1.4%；百度迁徙规模指数环比/同比+4.9%/-3.8%，国内 航班执飞架次周环比/同比+2.1%/-0.4%，国际航班执飞架次周环比+2.5%，恢复至19年同期的73.3%；全国公路货运流量指数环比/同比变化-2.5%/-4.3%， 高速公路货车通行量/全国铁路货运量同比0.0%/+6.9%；全国快递揽收/投递量同比+27.5%/+28.9%；SCFI/BDI指数周环比变化+6.9%/+2.7%，二十大港口 ...

6月TOP50房企销售额涨至近1年新高3117亿元,同比降幅大幅收窄27pct至-4%,销售改善超预期,政策有效性得到充分验证。本轮政策周期为5~6月,期间 从中央至地方各类利好政策密集落地,尤其是央行5.17新政后,核心一二线城市纷纷跟进,从数据上看,政策效果在市场端得到了积极的反馈:根据克而瑞数据, 以权益销售额为口径(下同),继5月TOP50房企销售额降幅收窄16pct后,随着政策发酵时间的拉长、政策力度的加码、年中促销活动的开展等,6月市场交易 活跃度进一步抬升,销售额降幅收窄27pct至-4%,打破了过去12个月销售规模持续大幅下跌的态势,且从绝对规模看,6月单月的销售额较2023年下半年、 2023年全年的月度均值分别高约27%、8%,为近1年的峰值。 头部央企率先修复,TOP10房企中央企6月销售额均值同比上涨35%。6月,TOP10、TOP11~30、TOP31~50房企销售额分别同比+4%、-13%、-19%, TOP50房企中央企、国企、民企销售额分别同比+32%、-9%、-46%,进一步拆分,可得销售回暖的主要贡献来自头部央企:TOP10房企内共有6家央企,均实 现6月单月销售额正增长, ...

股 票 研 究 保险 | | | | 评级: | | 增持 | |---------------------|----------------------|--------------------------------|---------------------------|---------------------|------------| | | | | | 上次评级 : | 增持 | | | | ——央行开展国债借入操作公告点评 | 细分行业评级 | | | | 刘欣琦 ] ( 分析师 ) | 谢雨晟 ( 分析师 ) | 李嘉木 ( 分析师 ) | | | | | 021-38676647 | 021-38674943 | 021-38038619 | | | | | liuxinqi@gtjas.com | Xieyusheng@gtjas.com | lijiamu026075@gtjas.com | 相关报告 | | | | S0880515050001 | S0880521120003 | S0880524030003 | | | | | | | | 利差损》 | | | | 本报告导读: ...

股 票 研 究 沙特国防大臣访华,美方军机南海盘旋 | | | | 军工行业周报 | |----------------|-------------------------|---------------------------|----------------| | [table_Authors | 彭磊 ] ( 分析师 ) | 黄龙 ( 研究助理 ) | | | | 010-83939806 | 021-38031028 | | | | penglei018712@gtjas.com | huanglong028685@gtjas.com | | | 登记编号 | S0880518100003 | S0880123070154 | | 军工 2024.07.02 评级: 增持 上次评级: 增持 细分行业评级 | 相关报告 | | |---------------------------------------|------------| | 军工《北约军费创新高,俄朝关系持续升温 | | | 军工行业周报》 | | | | 2024.06.25 | | 军工《关键技术取得突破,商业航天捷报频 | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guodian Power (600795) [3][4] - The target price is raised to 7.28 CNY from the previous 6.50 CNY [3][4] Core Views - The completion of the equity transfer of 50% stake in Guodian Investment is expected to enhance the company's profit stability [4] - The transaction price for the stake was 6.739 billion CNY, reflecting a PB valuation of 2.79 times, with an increase of approximately 4.39 billion CNY over the book value [4] - The report highlights that the equity disposal not only provides short-term gains but also alleviates market concerns regarding profit fluctuations from the Chahasu coal mine [4] - The major shareholder's increase in holdings demonstrates confidence in the company's future development [4] - The company has a robust pipeline of projects, with significant capital expenditures expected to support sustainable long-term growth [4] Financial Summary - The report projects an increase in EPS for 2024 to 0.56 CNY from the previous estimate of 0.50 CNY, with 2025 and 2026 EPS remaining at 0.56 CNY and 0.63 CNY respectively [4][11] - Revenue for 2024 is estimated at 191.012 billion CNY, with a projected net profit of 10.038 billion CNY [11][12] - The company’s total assets are expected to reach 494.648 billion CNY by 2024, with total liabilities at 359.942 billion CNY [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Yunnan Energy Investment (002053) with a target price of 16.32 CNY, unchanged from the previous rating [3][4]. Core Views - The completion of the first phase of the Jinzhong Wind Farm has led to a significant increase in electricity generation, with expectations for high growth in annual performance [2][4]. - As of the end of the first half of 2024, the company has installed a total of 1.88 million kW of renewable energy capacity, representing a year-on-year increase of 133%, with wind power capacity up 139% and solar power capacity up 60.6% [4]. - The company aims to achieve full capacity for the second phase of the Jinzhong Wind Farm and the Huhuli photovoltaic project within 2024, with plans for a 670,000 kW wind expansion project to commence construction [4]. - The company reported a net profit of 360 million CNY in Q1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 94.8%, primarily driven by its renewable energy business [4]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The report emphasizes the high growth potential of the company's new projects, particularly in Yunnan province, which has favorable wind energy resources [4]. - The average utilization hours for wind power in Yunnan from 2019 to 2023 were 2,602 hours, exceeding the national average by 435 hours [4]. - The company has signed multiple agreements with its controlling shareholder for a total rated capacity of 1.05 million kW, which will be prioritized for injection into the company once profitability and operational standards are met [4]. Financial Forecast - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 1.09 CNY, 1.26 CNY, and 1.58 CNY respectively [4][12]. - The company's total revenue is expected to grow significantly, with projected figures of 4.11 billion CNY for 2024, 4.72 billion CNY for 2025, and 5.51 billion CNY for 2026, reflecting growth rates of 41.7%, 14.7%, and 16.7% respectively [12]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to reach 1 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 107.3% [12].

O 预期回归现实,把握内需 -有色金属行业2024年中期策略 2024/ 06 / 20 行业评级:增持 姓名:于嘉懿(分析师) 邮箱:yujiayi@gtjas.com 电话:021-38038404 姓名:宁紫微(分析师) 師箱:ningziwei@gtjas.com 电话:021-38038438 证书编号:S0880523080002 证书编号: S0880522080001 姓名:孟宪博(分析师) 姓名:刘小华(分析师) 邮箱:liuxiaohua027843@gtjas.com 邮箱:meagxianbp029249@gtjas.com 电话:021-38038434 证书编号:S0880523120003 姓名: [ ] 电话:021-380310 国泰君安2024年中期策略研讨会 ● 我们看好主升延续的黄金,供需格局有望改善的锂板块和稀土板块,以及出口需求及利润提升的铝加工板块。 ● 黄金&稀土: 滞胀或随欧降息,黄金主升延续。美国经济滞胀特征延续,欧洲降息、中国地产托底政策或延长美滞胀周期。近期美国5月芝 加哥制造业PMI超预期下滑至35.4,后续美经济/就业走弱的催化有望持续出现,继续看好 ...

股 票 研 究 | | | | 食品饮料 / 必需消费 | |------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------|----------------------------| | 泸州老窖 (000568) | | 评级: | 增持 | | | 立足长远发展,稳步提效升级 | 目标价格: | 上次评级 : 增持 218.00 | | | ——泸州老窖( 000568.SZ | [ 当前价格: Table_CurPrice] | 上次预测 : 290.61 143.00 | | [table_Authors 訾猛 ] ( 分析师 ) | 李美仪 ( 研究助理 ) | | | | 021-38676442 zimeng@gtjas.com | 021-38038667 limeiyi026738@gtjas.com | | 2024.07.02 | | 登记编号 S088051312 ...

| | | | | 房地产 | |---------------------------|---------------------------|---------------------------------|------------|------------| | | | 评级: | | 增持 | | | | | 上次评级 : | 增持 | | —— 6 | 月房企销售数据点评 | 细分行业评级 | | | | 黄可意 ( 研究助理 ) | 白淑媛 ( 分析师 ) | | | | | 010-83939815 | 021-38675923 | | | | | huangkeyi028691@gtjas.com | baishuyuan@gtjas.com | 相关报告 | | | | S0880123070129 | S0880518010004 | 房地产《跟进响应,调降利率》 | | | | | | | | 2024.06.27 | | 6 月 TOP50 | 房企销售表现超预期,销售额 | 房地产《信用新格局,缓解资产荒》 | | | 创近 1 年新高,跌幅大幅收窄 27pct 至-4%,后续将继 ...

股 票 研 究 | | | | 社会服务 | |-------------------------------------|-----------------|-----------------------------|------------| | 2024.07.02 | 评级: | | 增持 | | 从 A | | 上次评级 : | 增持 | | | 细分行业评级 | | | | [table_Authors] 刘越男 ( 分析师 ) | | | | | 021-38677706 | | | | | liuyuenan@gtjas.com | 相关报告 | | | | 登记编号 S0880516030003 | 社会服务《 2024 | 暑期档蓄势中, 7 | 月望掀起 | | | 观影热潮》 | | | | 本报告导读: | | | 2024.06.28 | | A | 社会服务《 6 | 月版号环比增加,三七、吉比特 | | | 差旅费经过 2022 | 等有产品获批》 | | | | | | | 2024.06.26 | | | 社会服务《 AI | 视频赛道新品推进, | B 站 SLG | | ...