北京跟进响应央行5.17政策,落地五条新政,直指需求端,围绕贷款利率、首付比例、以旧换新等展开。1)调整商业性个人贷款最低首付比例和贷款利率下限, 首套/二套(五环内)/二套(五环外)首付比例分别不低于20%/35%/30%,新发贷款利率下限分别不低于LPR-45BP/LPR-5BP/LPR-25BP;2)调整住房公积金 个人住房贷款最低首付比例,首套/二套(五环内)/二套(五环外)首付比例分别不低于20%/35%/30%;3)改善多子女家庭住房需求,本市户籍二孩及以上的 家庭,购买二套住房时,个人住房贷款中可认定为首套;4)对购买绿色建筑等的家庭给予贷款额度上浮的支持;5)组织开展住房"以旧换新"活动,鼓励更多房企 及经纪机构参与。 政策包中最关键的是利率政策,横向对比,此次调整前北京是百城中中贷款利率最高的城市,新政下,各类贷款利率下调幅度在45BP及以上,调整后的水平与上 海和深圳基本一致。根据贝壳研究院的数据,2024年5月百城首套/二套的平均商贷利率分别为3.45%/3.90%,其中一线城市为3.59%/3.98%,而北京在调整前 为城六区4.05%/4.55%,城六区外3.95%/4.5%,与其他 ...

FY2024 业绩大超预期,未来两年目标中双增长 本报告导读: FY2024 收入、利润大超预期,维持高比例分红水平,期待 FY2025 延续亮眼表现,未 来两年收入目标中双增长。 波司登(3998) 评级: 增持 [当前价格 Table_CurPrice] :(港元) 4.56 ——波司登 FY2024 业绩点评 | [table_Authors] | 刘佳昆 ( 分析师 ) | 曹冬青 ( 研究助理 ) | |-------------------|---------------------------|-----------------------------| | | 021-38038184 | 0755-23976666 | | | liujiakun029641@gtjas.com | caodongqing026730@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524040004 | S0880122070070 | | 交易数据 | | |----------------------------|-----------| | 52 周内股价区间 ( 港元 ) | 2.89-4.83 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - M&A (Mergers and Acquisitions) is a critical step for large enterprises to grow, especially in the home appliance industry [6] - The home appliance industry has experienced three stages of M&A: - Stage 1 (1990-2010): Focused on expanding business areas and extending upstream in the supply chain [7] - Stage 2 (2010-2020): Accelerated international and high-end M&A, with a focus on To B (business-to-business) and non-core business expansion [7][9] - Stage 3 (2020 onwards): Continued focus on B-end business and non-core business expansion [7][11] - M&A provides multiple values such as resource integration, market expansion, and synergistic effects, achieving a 1+1>2 outcome [3][26] Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Introduction - The current economic transition in China from high-speed growth to high-quality development has led to a slowdown in domestic home appliance sales [6] - M&A has become a key strategy for companies to seek market share growth domestically and expand internationally [6] 2. Review of Home Appliance Industry M&A History - The home appliance industry's M&A history is divided into three stages: - Stage 1 (1990-2010): Focused on expanding business areas and extending upstream in the supply chain [7] - Stage 2 (2010-2020): Accelerated international and high-end M&A, with a focus on To B and non-core business expansion [7][9] - Stage 3 (2020 onwards): Continued focus on B-end business and non-core business expansion [7][11] 3. Home Appliance M&A Case Studies 3.1 Core Business M&A - Core business M&A can achieve category expansion, integrate overseas resources, and open up overseas channels [13] - Examples include: - Midea's acquisition of Little Swan to expand its washing machine business [14] - Hisense's acquisition of Sharp and Toshiba to enhance global market share [20] - TCL's acquisition of Ouma to gain low-cost resources during a period of undervaluation [21] 3.2 Non-Core Business M&A - Non-core business M&A can improve vertical integration of the industrial chain and enhance technology and efficiency levels [23] - Examples include: - Hisense's acquisition of laser chip design companies to lay the foundation for laser TV development [23] - Midea's acquisition of KUKA to enter the robotics industry [24] 4. Significance of M&A for Home Appliance Companies - M&A provides multiple values such as resource integration, market expansion, and synergistic effects, achieving a 1+1>2 outcome [26] - Companies with strong resource endowments and relatively abundant cash flow are expected to benefit from the current M&A wave [26] 5. Risk Warnings - The report does not include risk warnings as per the task instructions [4][27]

股 票 研 究 传播文化业 | | | | | 增持 | |----------------------|---------------------|--------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------|-------------| | 暑期档蓄势中, | 7 | 月望掀起观影热潮 | 上次评级 : | 增持 | | | —— 2024 | 年电影暑期档前瞻 | 细分行业评级 | | | 陈筱 ] ( 分析师 ) | 陈俊希 ( 分析师 ) | 李芓漪 ( 分析师 ) | | | | 021-38675863 | 021-38032025 | 021-38038428 | | | | chenxiao@gtjas.com | chenjunxi@gtjas.com | liziyi@gtjas.com | | | | S0880515040003 | S0880520120009 | S0880523080004 | 传播文化业《 6 月版号环比增加,三七、吉比 | | | | | | ...

股 票 研 究 大促回归常态化,家电存在结构亮点 ——618 大促家电板块总结 | [table_Authors 蔡雯娟 ] ( 分析师 ) | 李汉颖 ( 研究助理 ) | 曲世强 ( 研究助理 ) | |------------------------------------------|---------------------------|----------------------------| | 021-38031654 | 010-83939833 | 021-38031025 | | caiwenjuan024354@gtjas.com | lihanying026725@gtjas.com | qushiqiang028674@gtjas.com | | S0880521050002 | S0880122070046 | S0880123070132 | 本报告导读: 618 大促整体需求平淡,家电品类中清洁、智能家居等成长赛道表现较好,行业均价 有所下行背景下,冰箱、厨小电、投影等品类格局有所优化。 投资要点: [Table大盘整体需求平淡,大促回归常态化 _Summary] :2024 ...

纺织服装业 滔搏(6110) 评级: 增持 [当前价格 Table_CurPrice] :(港元) 4.40 2024.06.28 ——滔搏 FY2025Q1 经营数据点评 | [table_Authors] | 刘佳昆 ( 分析师 ) | 曹冬青 ( 研究助理 ) | |-------------------|---------------------------|-----------------------------| | | 021-38038184 | 0755-23976666 | | | liujiakun029641@gtjas.com | caodongqing026730@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524040004 | S0880122070070 | 本报告导读: FY2025Q1 流水符合预期,线上明显优于线下, 6 月至今销售符合公司预期,新增与 Columbia 合作。 | 交易数据 | | |----------------------------|-----------| | 52 周内股价区间 ( 港元 ) | 4.40-7.30 | | 当前股 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 本报告导读： 地产销售边际回升，乘用车销售表现平淡；建筑施工需求偏弱，钢材水泥需求偏弱， 石油沥青开工率降至历史同期低位；"618"大促推动物流货运景气回升。 张逸飞(研究助理) 将 ESG 融入因子投资策略 外资和两融资金有所流出 周期制造：建筑施工需求偏弱，企业招聘意愿回升。1）基建地产：螺 纹钢/热轧板卷价格周环比变化-2.2%/-1.3%，需求小幅回升，螺纹钢表 观消费量周环比+8.7 万吨，高炉开工率周环比+0.8%；全国水泥价格 指数周环比+0.5%，需求仍偏弱，水泥发运率环比-1.0%，价格上涨主 因企业错峰生产约束供给；2）企业开工：企业新增招聘帖数周环比/ 同比+3.6%/+7.7%；汽车开工率同比上升，纺服开工率环比下滑，石油 沥青开工率降至历史低位；3）资源品：秦皇岛港 Q5500 动力煤平仓 价周环比-0.8%，主因降水增多抑制电煤日耗提升；SHFE 铜/铝价周环 比变化-0.3%/-0.5%，美国降息预期反复，工业金属价格窄幅震荡。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 A 股策略观察 下游消费：地产销售同环比改善，乘用车销售表现平淡。上周 30 大中城市 商品房 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 78.26 yuan, unchanged from the previous rating [2][11]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from product structure, lifecycle advantages, and channel strengths, continuing to show strong endogenous driving factors in the latter half of the inventory cycle [4][11]. - The report highlights that the industry is transitioning from passive inventory replenishment to active destocking, leading to significant growth pressure and product structure changes [4][11]. - The company is projected to achieve EPS of 3.04 yuan, 3.67 yuan, and 4.26 yuan for the years 2024-2026 [5][11]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report maintains the "Accumulate" rating and target price of 78.26 yuan, with earnings forecasts for 2024-2026 remaining unchanged [2][11]. Industry Analysis - The report indicates that the industry is in the latter half of the inventory cycle, with a notable shift towards active destocking and structural changes in product offerings [4][11]. - The Suzhou liquor market is characterized by both stock competition and incremental battles, with significant growth observed in the northern region while the central and southern regions still have room for growth [4][11]. Company Growth Drivers - The company is expected to continue its upward trend in market share, driven by a deep product structure and the alignment of its offerings with current consumption trends [4][11]. - The report emphasizes that channel value is becoming more significant than brand value in the latter half of the inventory cycle, with the company's channel organization maturing [4][11]. - The company is anticipated to leverage its channel advantages and product lifecycle benefits to expand its market share, both locally and nationally [4][11]. Financial Projections - The financial summary indicates a revenue growth forecast from 10,100 million yuan in 2023 to 17,023 million yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 15.9% [5][11]. - Net profit is projected to grow from 3,136 million yuan in 2023 to 5,350 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [5][11].

事件:全国科技大会召开,提出针对科研仪器等瓶颈制约,加大技术研发力度。 投资建议:我国加强基础研究水平、提升配套科学仪器自主可控水平,鼓励国产科学仪器设备攻关核心技术攻关。我们认为,配套关键供应链自主安 全可控的研发投入有望加大,加速实现我国自主科学仪器提升自主可控水平。国产科学仪器龙头在初步突破光谱、色谱、质谱等高端仪器技术的基础 上,将通过加强研发能力的方式提升国产替代水平。 基础研究配套原创性科技成果和关键核心技术为实现2035年科技强国目标的核心要素。会议提出,我国虽然科技事业已取得长足进步,但是原创性 创新能力相对薄弱,关键核心技术仍需进一步加大研发力度。加强基础研究、掌握关键核心技术为科技强国关键基本要素。 实施一批新的重大科技项目,完善配套国家实验室体系,加大科研仪器等瓶颈制约环节研发力度。1)会议要求,为加强原创基础理论研究、掌握底 层技术原理,建立科技治理体系,统筹科研力量、资源平台,完善国家实验室体系,实施一批新的重大科技项目。2)在产学研融合方面,聚焦重点 领域和薄弱环节,针对科研仪器、核心种源等瓶颈制约,加大技术研发力度,为确保重要产业链供应链自主安全可控提供科技支撑。 完善竞争性支持 ...

6月23日,我国在酒泉卫星发射中心完成重复使用运载火箭首次10公里级垂直起降飞行试验,试验任务取得圆满成功。这是目前国内重复使用运载火箭最大规模的 垂直起降飞行试验,也是国内自主研制的深度变推液氧甲烷发动机在10公里级返回飞行中的首次应用,为2025年如期实现4米级重复使用运载火箭首飞奠定了坚 实技术基础。 着陆回收关键技术取得突破,后续将开展70公里级垂直起降试验。此次飞行试验采用了3.8米直径箭体,火箭由中国航天科技集团有限公司八院抓总研制,配置三 台70吨级液氧甲烷发动机和全尺寸着陆缓冲系统。下午1时许,在酒泉卫星发射中心,3.8米直径的重复使用运载火箭新技术验证箭竖立在场坪发射台上,3台变推 液氧甲烷发动机点火,喷出蓝色尾焰,箭体上升至约12公里高度,中心发动机调节推力,火箭受控下降,在距离地面50米处,四条着陆腿展开,随后火箭缓速下 降,高度趋近于零,稳稳落在回收场坪,实现定点垂直软着陆。本次试验是目前国内重复使用运载火箭最大规模的垂直起降飞行试验,也是国内自主研制的深度变 推液氧甲烷发动机在十公里级返回飞行中的首次应用。试验全程用时6分钟左右,火箭经历了加速上升、减速上升、加速下降、减速下降、缓速 ...