Investment Rating and Target Price - The report initiates coverage on Huarong Gas with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 37.05, based on a 15x PE multiple for 2024 [2] - The target price is derived from a combination of relative and absolute valuation methods, including PE, PB, and DDM models [11][14][16] Core Investment Thesis - Huarong Gas is expected to see steady profit growth driven by optimized business structure, improved operating cash flow, and reduced capital expenditures [1][7] - The company's free cash flow is improving, and its dividend per share (DPS) is entering an upward trajectory, enhancing its dividend value [1][2][7] - Key catalysts include margin improvement, dividend increases, and declining market interest rates [2][7] Business Segments and Growth Drivers Retail Gas Sales - Retail gas sales volume is expected to grow steadily, supported by policies like "coal-to-gas" and "bottle-to-pipeline" conversions [2][7][36] - The company's gas margin is expected to recover due to price adjustments and cost reductions, with a projected margin of RMB 0.53/0.55/0.56 per cubic meter for 2024-2026 [8][9] - Huarong Gas benefits from a higher proportion of residential gas sales, which allows it to capture more price adjustment benefits [7][42] Connection Business - Despite a slowdown in new connections due to the real estate downturn, the company still has room for growth, with an estimated 298/268/241 thousand new residential connections for 2024-2026 [8][54] - The company's contract liabilities remain high, providing a buffer for future connection business [7][55] Comprehensive Services and Energy Business - The comprehensive services business, including gas appliances and insurance, is expected to grow at a CAGR of 24.0%/22.0%/20.0% from 2024-2026 [8][58] - The comprehensive energy business, including distributed energy and EV charging, is projected to grow rapidly, with a target revenue of HKD 5 billion by 2025 [60][61] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 5.0%/4.9%/3.9% from 2024-2026, reaching HKD 106.4/111.6/116.0 billion [9][10] - Net profit is projected to grow at a CAGR of 9.5%/11.3%/8.9% over the same period, with EPS of HKD 2.47/2.75/3.00 [9][10] Valuation - Relative valuation using PE and PB multiples suggests a fair value of HKD 37.05, based on a 15x PE and 2.0x PB for 2024 [11][12][13] - The DDM model estimates an intrinsic value of HKD 42.95 per share, based on a two-stage growth model and a cost of equity of 6.6% [14][15][16] Industry and Market Position - Huarong Gas is one of the largest city gas operators in China, with a strong presence in economically developed regions like the Yangtze River Delta and the Greater Bay Area [17][54] - The company benefits from its stable gas supply, with 87.7% of its gas sourced from pipelines, and long-term contracts with major suppliers like CNPC and Sinopec [42][43] Operational Efficiency and Cash Flow - The company has improved its working capital management, with positive cash flow contributions from prepayments and receivables in 2023 [7][51] - The gap between accounts receivable turnover days and prepayment turnover days has narrowed, indicating better cash flow efficiency [51][52]

Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating [4] - Target price adjusted to 7.72 yuan, up from the previous 6.74 yuan [6] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 results met expectations, with both float and photovoltaic glass sectors facing price pressures [3] - Despite industry challenges, the company maintains leading cost competitiveness and is expected to stabilize as industry cold repairs accelerate [3] - Q3 2024 revenue was 3.689 billion yuan, down 14.21% year-on-year, with a net loss of 112 million yuan [4] - Photovoltaic glass sector accelerated losses due to insufficient component demand, but cold repairs in 2025 are expected to drive profit recovery [4] - Float glass segment achieved break-even in Q3, with sales of approximately 27 million heavy cases and a production-sales ratio exceeding 100% [4] - Photovoltaic glass sales in Q3 were around 100 million square meters, with prices dropping to 13.82 yuan per square meter, leading to industry-wide losses [4] Financial Performance - 2024E revenue is projected at 16.405 billion yuan, with a net profit of 572 million yuan [5] - EPS for 2024E is forecasted at 0.21 yuan, down from 0.65 yuan in 2023A [5] - ROE for 2024E is expected to be 4.1%, down from 12.9% in 2023A [5] - P/E ratio for 2024E is 33.12, significantly higher than 10.82 in 2023A [5] Industry and Market Context - The float glass industry is under pressure, with the national average price in Q3 at 1,470 yuan per ton, down 305 yuan per ton from the previous quarter [4] - The photovoltaic glass industry saw a price drop of 3.54 yuan per square meter in Q3, leading to rapid inventory accumulation and accelerated price declines [4] - The company's governance structure and incentive mechanisms remain strong, with a management team capable of navigating industry cycles [4] - The float glass industry's daily melting capacity decreased by 13,200 tons per day from its peak in April, a reduction of 8% [4] Valuation and Comparables - The company's 2025E P/E ratio is 17.71, compared to an industry average of 19.31 [13] - Comparable companies include Fuyao Glass (600660.SH) with a 2025E P/E of 16.70 and Flat Glass (601865.SH) with a 2025E P/E of 25.46 [13]

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 究 [table_NewStock] 证 券 研 究 报 告 新股精要—国内高端钛材领先生产企业金 天钛业 本周新股发行信息 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.11.04 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------------------------------------|--------------------|--------------------------| | | | | —— IPO 专题 | | | [table_Authors] 王政之 ( 分析师 ) | 施怡昀 ( 分析师 ) | 王思琪 ( 分析师 ) | | | 021-38674944 | 021-38032690 | 021-38038671 | | | wangzhengzhi@gtjas.com | shiyiyun@gtjas.com | wangsiqi026737@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S088051 ...

股 票 研 究 公 司 更 新 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 ——三一重工 2024 年三季报点评 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.11.04 业绩符合预期，提质降本效果显现 三一重工(600031) [Table_Industry] 资本货物/工业 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------------------------------------|---------------------------| | | | | | | [table_Authors] 肖群稀 ( 分析师 ) | 徐乔威 ( 分析师 ) | | | 0755-23976830 | 021-38676779 | | | xiaoqunxi027589@gtjas.com | xuqiaowei023970@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880522120001 | S0880521020003 | 本报告导读： 公司作为国内工程机械龙头， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 259.69 RMB, down from the previous target of 321.25 RMB [4] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance was below expectations due to timing mismatches in revenue and expenses, as well as a more aggressive market expansion strategy [2][3] - Long-term growth potential remains strong, with the company well-positioned to expand its global market share [2][3] - The company's EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised downward to 11.62/12.98/13.37 RMB, representing decreases of 14%/19%/29% respectively [3] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue was 25.91 billion RMB, up 11.91% YoY, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.51 billion RMB, down 43.4% YoY [3][14] - Gross margin for Q3 2024 was 53.95%, down 5.16 percentage points YoY but up 2 percentage points QoQ [3][16] - Sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios for Q3 2024 were 26.18%, 3.8%, 8.9%, and -0.49% respectively, all showing YoY increases [3][17] Regional Performance - Domestic, US, and Asia-Pacific markets met expectations, with Q3 revenue growth of +30%, +50%, and +20% respectively [3][15] - European market underperformed, with Q3 revenue down 10% YoY, attributed to a shift from distributor to direct sales model [3][15] Strategic Positioning - The company has adopted a more aggressive strategy for overseas market expansion since June 2024, leading to increased short-term expenses but faster global brand building [3][17] - Inventory levels increased significantly by 86.65% YoY to 1.719 billion RMB, indicating active preparation for Q4 sales promotions [18] Market Outlook - Domestic market is expected to benefit from Double 11 shopping festival and government subsidies in Q4 [3][18] - Overseas markets are anticipated to see growth from new product cycles during major sales promotions [3][18] Valuation - The company is valued at 20x PE for 2025, based on comparable companies in the industry [3][19] - Current market capitalization stands at 41.459 billion RMB, with a P/B ratio of 3.4 and a P/S ratio of 3.77 [5][6]

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 究 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.11.04 ——中国中铁 2024 年三季报点评 | --- | |-----------------------------------| | | | [table_Authors] 韩其成 ( 分析师 ) | | 021-38676162 | | hanqicheng8@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 S0880516030004 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------|-------|---------------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 分析师 ) | | | | | | | | | | ...

股 票 研 究 公 司 更 新 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------|-----------|-----------|---------|---------|-----------| | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入 | 1,096,313 | 1,137,993 | 978,165 | 984,183 | 1,013,239 | | (+/-)% | 7.5% | 3.8% | -14.0% | 0.6% | 3.0% | | 净利润（归母） | 26,681 | 26,097 | 22,964 | 23,668 | 24,274 | | (+/-)% | 8.1% | -2.2% | -12.0% | 3.1% | 2.6% | | 每股净收益（元） | 1.96 | 1.92 | 1.69 | 1.74 | 1.79 | | 净资产收益率 ...

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 究 公 司 更 新 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 & 11 本 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.11.04 [table_Authors]舒迪(分析师) 021-38676666 shudi@gtjas.com 登记编号S0880521070002 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------|----------------|---------------------------| | | | | | 陈豪杰 ( 分析师 ) | 王美懿 ( | 研究助理 ) | | 021-38038663 | 021-38031385 | | | chenhaojie026733@gtjas.com | | wangmeiyi029955@gtjas.com | | S0880524080009 | S0880124070042 | | Q3 毛利率环比修复，多产品线布局 中科蓝讯(688332) 电子元器件 [ ...

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 | --- | |-------| | | | | | | 公 司 更 新 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 ——福昕软件（688095） 2024 年三季报点评 | --- | |-----------------------------------| | | | | | | | [table_Authors] 李博伦 ( 分析师 ) | | 0755-23976516 | | libolun@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 S0880520020004 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | 伍巍 ( 研究助理 ) | | | | | | 021-38031029 | | | | | | wuwei028683@gtjas.com | | | | | | S0880123070157 | | | | | 本 ...

股 票 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 ——2024 年三季报点评 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.11.04 业绩整体符合预期，并购融合持续推进 华润三九(000999) [Table_Industry] 医药/必需消费 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-----------------------------------|----------------------------|----------------------------| | | | | | | | [table_Authors] 丁丹 ( 分析师 ) | 甘坛焕 ( 分析师 ) | 唐玉青 ( 研究助理 ) | | | 0755-23976735 | 021-38675855 | 021-38031031 | | | dingdan@gtjas.com | gantanhuan028803@gtjas.com | tangyuqing028689@gtj ...