Key Recommendations - Manufacturing PMI slightly declined in July, indicating a need for stronger economic recovery efforts. The manufacturing PMI for July was 49.4%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and below the 10-year average of 50.4% [6][7] - Domestic tire companies are making progress in catching up with global leaders, with a focus on scale, profitability, brand influence, and globalization strategies. The top three global tire companies hold a combined market share of 39%, while China's leading companies have a market share of 1-2% [8][9] - CME predicts that excavator export growth is expected to turn positive, with domestic sales also showing improvement. July excavator sales are estimated at around 14,000 units, with a projected year-on-year growth of approximately 11% [10][11] Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The manufacturing sector is experiencing a slight downturn, with both production and new order indices declining. The production index fell to 50.1%, and the new order index dropped to 49.3% [7] - New export orders showed a slight recovery, indicating stabilization in external demand, while domestic demand remains a significant constraint [7][8] - The cost pressures on enterprises have eased due to a decline in raw material prices, with the raw material price index dropping to 49.9% [7] Tire Industry Insights - Domestic tire companies are in a rapid expansion phase, with significant improvements in return on equity (ROE) for companies like Guizhou Tire and Sailun Tire, indicating high-quality capital investment returns [8][9] - The revenue growth rate for China's leading tire companies in 2023 is projected between 12% and 23%, significantly outperforming overseas competitors [8] - The market share of domestic top three tire companies has increased from 1.14% in 1998 to 5.32% in 2022, showcasing substantial progress [9] Excavator Market Outlook - The domestic excavator market is expected to improve due to policy effects and increased demand from infrastructure investments. The average inventory of domestic dealers has decreased, indicating a positive market sentiment [10][11] - The production of metal cutting machine tools in China has shown positive growth, with a cumulative production of 333,000 units in the first half of 2024, reflecting a 5.7% year-on-year increase [10][11] Policy and Economic Context - The Chinese government is focusing on enhancing macroeconomic policies to support economic recovery, emphasizing the need for effective implementation of existing policies and the introduction of new measures [13] - The recent meeting led by Premier Li Qiang highlighted the importance of stabilizing expectations and boosting confidence through tangible policy actions [13]

总 量 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年08月01日 [如何看待美联储 Table_NewTitle] 9月降息概率？ ——海外观察：2024年7月美国FOMC会议 [table_main] 投资要点 Ø 事件：美联储维持联邦基金利率的目标区间在 5.25% 至 5.5% 不变，符合预期。 Ø 核心观点：7月FOMC会议整体态度中性偏鸽，措辞较上次会议更温和，暗示就业和通胀 的双重风险趋于平衡，为9月降息做了铺垫，但也没有排除不降息的可能性，为未来变化 留下了充足空间。市场解读本次会议基调偏鸽，美元资产继续交易降息预期，可能过于 乐观。当前美股市场对于美联储降息的计价已经较为充分，而对降息背后经济下行的计 价有所不足。一旦经济增速不及预期，美联储9月降息靴子落地，美股可能反而会下跌， 开始计价衰退。如果未来经济偏强，降息预期回落，可能反而更有利于美股大盘走势。 Ø 7月FOMC会议释放的信号整体中性偏鸽。美联储对于就业和通胀情况描述采用的措辞较 上次会议都变得更加温和，认为双重风险更趋平衡。会议声明中对于就业增长的描述从上 次会议的"强劲"变为"温和"，认为失业率虽然有所上升但仍处于低 ...

公 司 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年08月01日 公 司 简 评 [Table_invest] 买入（维持） 报告原因：业绩点评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 周啸宇 S0630519030001 zhouxiaoy@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 张帆远 S0630524070002 zfy@longone.com.cn 电 力 设 备 与 新 能 源 | --- | --- | |-------------------------|---------------| | 数据日期 Table_cominfo] | 2024/08/01 | | 收盘价 | 180.30 | | 总股本(万股) | 439,881 | | 流通A股/B股(万股) | 389,485/0 | | 资产负债率(%) | 69.26% | | 市净率(倍) | 4.04 | | 净资产收益率(加权) | 11.39 | | 12个月内最高/最低价 | 245.32/137.04 | [Table_QuotePic] -49% -40% -31% -22% -13% -4% 5% 1 ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy Changes - The Bank of Japan raised the policy interest rate from 0-0.1% to approximately 0.25% on July 31, 2024, exceeding market expectations[2] - The monthly government bond purchase amount will be gradually reduced from about 6 trillion yen to around 3 trillion yen by January to March 2026[2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Japan's core CPI year-on-year growth was 2.6% in June 2024, above the Bank of Japan's 2% inflation target[2] - Nominal wage growth accelerated to 2% year-on-year in May 2024, while real wage growth was -1.2%[2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The Bank of Japan may continue to raise interest rates one to two more times in the second half of 2024, but may not sustain this in 2025 due to weak economic growth and potential inflation decline[3] - The future trajectory of the yen will largely depend on the Federal Reserve's policies, with expectations of a potential depreciation if the Fed's rate cut expectations decrease[3] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - Risks include exchange rate fluctuations, policy adjustment uncertainties, and external economic impacts[3]

总 量 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年07月31日 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

行 业 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年07月31日 行 业 周 报 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 王敏君 S0630522040002 wmj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 梁帅奇 S0630524070001 lsqi@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -38% -30% -23% -15% -7% 0% 8% 23-07 23-10 24-01 24-04 申万行业指数:机械设备(0764) 沪深300 [table_invest] 超配 [Table_NewTitle] CME预测挖机出口增速有望转正， 关注工业母机自主可控发展进程 ——机械设备行业周报（20240722-20240728） [table_main] 投资要点： ➢ 工程机械数据前瞻：挖掘机出口增速有望转正，内销或持续向好。 CME预测，7月挖掘机销量为14000台左右。据CME（工程机械杂志）预估，2024年7月挖 掘机总销量有望同比增长11%左右（上月实际总销量同比增速为5%）。其中，国内预估销 量为6000台，同比增长近17%；出口预估销量为80 ...

证券分析师：吴骏燕 执业证书编号：S0630517120001 联系人：马小萱 联系方式：mxxuan@longone.com.cn 证券分析师：谢建斌 执业证书编号：S0630522020001 联系人：张晶磊 联系方式：zjlei@longone.com.cn 2024 07 31 随着技术进步和海内外市场同步拓展，国产轮胎企业展现出了强大的竞争力和发展潜力。我们对国内外龙头胎企的规模、盈利能力、品牌影响 力以及全球化战略等多方面将进行对比，探究国产胎企与海外龙头当前的差距，以及我国胎企升级全球头部的发展路径。 行业格局方面，全球轮胎市场由米其林、普利司通和固特异等头部主导，三家市占率合计39%，二梯队企业市占率在2%-9%之间，合计占比 25%，我国头部企业中策橡胶、赛轮轮胎、玲珑轮胎等市占率在1%-2%之间，此外部分市占率小于1%的国内胎企通用轮胎、森麒麟、贵州轮 胎等也表现出强劲的发展势头。 企业规模方面，2023年，头部企业资产规模平均达330亿美元，二梯队约百亿美元，中国企业则在16-60亿美元。扩产情况来看，我国胎企自 2020年进入加速扩产周期，此外我们加入ROE指标协同观察产能的兑现情况， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for sustained and stronger macro policies, with a target to achieve around 5% economic growth for the year, highlighting the importance of consumption and domestic demand expansion [9][10][63] - The meeting pointed out that macro policies should focus on improving residents' income expectations and boosting consumption, with specific measures such as issuing special bonds to support large-scale equipment updates and subsidies for durable consumer goods [10][19][63] - The meeting also discussed the importance of developing emerging industries and future industries, indicating that these areas are essential for the transformation and upgrading process [9][27][63] Group 2 - In Q2 2024, public fund holdings in the semiconductor sector reached 8.39%, with the top 20 holdings accounting for 90% of the total market value of semiconductor stocks, indicating a strong concentration in leading companies within the sector [6][14][62] - The report highlights that the semiconductor sector's valuation is at a historically low level, suggesting potential investment opportunities as demand gradually recovers and prices stabilize [16][30] - The report recommends focusing on companies benefiting from strong overseas demand in the AIOT sector and those involved in AI innovation, as well as upstream supply chain companies expected to benefit from domestic substitution trends [16][30]

行 业 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年07月30日 行 业 简 评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 方霁 S0630523060001 fangji@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -39% -31% -22% -14% -6% 2% 10% 23-07 23-10 24-01 24-04 申万行业指数:电子(0727) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.Q2中国智能手机出货量同比增长 8.9%，3000亿特别国债助力消费品 以旧换新 — — 电 子 行 业 周 报 2024/7/22-2024/7/28 2. 国 产 汽 车 芯 片 迎 催 化 良 机 ， 2024Q2全球智能手机出货同比增长 6.5%——电子行业周报（20240715- 20240721） 3.IoT出海高景气度持续，台积电Q2 业绩超预期市值首破万亿美元—— 电子行业周报2024/7/8-2024/7/14 [table_invest] 标配 [Table_NewTitle] 2024Q2公募持仓半导体比例高达 8.39%，TOP20持仓个 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2023年07月30日 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 合计占比近6成，未来低空经济等新兴产业估计会有较快发展。对于淘汰落后低效产能， 截至今年6月，非金属矿物制品、食品制造、煤炭开采业产能利用率偏低，或面临产能过 剩风险，可能是供给侧改革的重点领域。 ➢ 资本市场运行稳定性有望提升。会议指出，要统筹防风险、强监管、促发展，提振投资者 信心，提升资本市场内在稳定性。本次政治局会议对于资本市场的工作部署放在防风险段 落，或意味着相关部门可能会出台更多促进资本市场稳定发展的政策措施，7月29日证监 会召开的年中工作会议也提到"切实维护市场平稳运行，不断改进预期管理"。上证指数于 5月20日触及年内高点以来，已累计回调近14%。股市表现相对偏弱，不仅影响经济预期 和金融稳定，同时也对居民财富增长有所制约，不利于消费能力和意愿的进一步修复，估 计资本市场稳定会更受重视。 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 2/6 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 证券研究报告 HTTP:// ...