行 业 研 究 机 械 设 备 申万行业指数:机械设备(0764) 沪深300 [table_product] [Table_Reportdate] 2024年10月13日 [table_invest] [Table_NewTitle] 9月挖掘机内销提速，总销量即将回正 ——机械设备行业简评 [table_main] 投资要点： ➢ 事件：中国工程机械工业协会发布2024年9月主要企业挖掘机和装载机销量统计： 挖掘机：2024年9月销售各类挖掘机15831台，同比增长10.8%，其中国内7610台，同比 增长21.5%；出口8221台，同比增长2.51%。2024年1-9月，共销售挖掘机147381台，同 比下降0.96%；其中国内73945台，同比增长8.62%；出口73436台，同比下降9.04%。2024 年9月销售电动挖掘机3台。 装载机：2024年9月销售各类装载机8072台，同比增长4.98%。其中国内4022台，同比下 降5.07%；出口4050台，同比增长17.30%。2024年1-9月，共销售装载机81798台，同比 增长4.73%。其中出口40388台，同比增长10.1%。2024年9月 ...

Industry Overview and Traditional White Goods - The home appliance industry has shown strong performance historically, with the Shenwan Home Appliance Index outperforming the CSI 300 Index, driven by urbanization and increased market concentration [5] - White goods, particularly air conditioners, have historically been a significant driver of the home appliance index, but diversification by leading companies and the rise of new product categories are expected to introduce more diverse factors influencing the index [5] - The industry is undergoing transformation, with reduced reliance on real estate cycles and increased focus on product upgrades, regional expansion, and mergers and acquisitions [7] - Domestic sales are driven by technological advancements and replacement demand, while overseas sales are supported by restocking demand and the potential of emerging markets [7] - Raw material prices and exchange rates significantly impact profitability, with fluctuations in copper prices historically affecting industry performance [7] - Leading companies in the sector exhibit strong cash flow and high dividend payouts, which are expected to continue [7] Cleaning Appliances - The cleaning appliance market, particularly robotic vacuum cleaners, is technology-driven, with significant growth potential due to low penetration rates in China compared to developed markets [15] - The introduction of "all-in-one base stations" has become a standard in the industry, offering premium features and driving up average selling prices despite a decline in sales volume [15] - The market has shifted from price competition to volume-driven strategies, with leading brands consolidating their market share [17] - Marketing competition has intensified, with brands increasing sales expenses and leveraging platforms like TikTok for better market penetration [19] - New product launches in 2024 focus on improving cost-performance ratios, with flagship products incorporating advanced features like mechanical arm edge cleaning and compact base stations [21] - Overseas, Chinese brands have gained traction in Europe and the US through cross-border e-commerce, with companies like Roborock leading in Amazon channels [23] Tools and Outdoor Power Equipment - The global tools market is expected to grow steadily, with a CAGR of 4.7% from 2023 to 2027, driven by stable replacement demand and recovery in key markets like North America [37] - The shift from corded to cordless (lithium-powered) tools is a significant trend, with the cordless market expected to grow at a CAGR of 9.9% from 2020 to 2025 [39] - Policies in the US, particularly in California, are promoting the transition to electric-powered outdoor tools, which could influence other regions [39] - Leading companies like TTI and Stanley Black & Decker dominate the market, with strong brand loyalty and established distribution channels [37] - Chinese brands are leveraging advancements in lithium battery technology to enter the global market, with companies like Greenworks and Chervon gaining recognition [39] - The lawn mower robot market is emerging as a growth area, with global sales expected to reach $2.3 billion by 2025, driven by advancements in navigation and obstacle avoidance technologies [45] Global Operations and Supply Chain - The tools industry has established a global supply chain network, with production concentrated in Asia and distribution focused on North America and Europe [47] - Companies are expanding overseas production bases to mitigate trade risks and reduce costs, with significant investments in Vietnam, Mexico, and the US [47] - The globalization of operations is expected to intensify industry consolidation, with leading companies like TTI and Great Star leveraging their global presence to maintain competitive advantages [48] - Cross-border e-commerce and independent websites have become important channels for Chinese brands to quickly gain market share, but long-term success will depend on deeper integration into global supply chains [48]

行 业 研 究 非 银 金 融 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年10月11日 行 业 简 评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 陶圣禹 S0630523100002 tsy@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -28% -18% -9% 1% 10% 20% 29% 23-10 24-01 24-04 24-07 申万行业指数:非银金融(0749) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.重视高涨情绪下增量资金入市推 动的非银板块持续行情——非银金 融行业周报（20240930-20241006） 2.券商风控指标修订落地，新"国十 条"指明保险高质量发展方向——非 银 金 融 行 业 周 报 （ 20240916- 20240922） 3.航母级券商蓄势启航，预定利率分 阶段下调启动——非银金融行业周 报（20240902-20240908） ➢ 关注点一：顶层设计推进下，后续流程有望加速。本次并购重组的出发点即为在金融强国 战略和上海国际金融中心建设推进下的一流投资银行建设，遵循强强联合、优势互补、对 等合并的原则。后续虽然仍有三 ...

总 量 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年10月11日 宏 观 简 评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 胡少华 S0630516090002 hush@longone.com.cn [核心通胀黏性依旧 Table_NewTitle] ——海外观察：2024年9月美国CPI [table_main] 投资要点 ➢ 事件：9月美国CPI同比上涨2.4%，预期2.3%，前值2.5%；环比上升0.2%，预期0.1%，前 值0.2%。9月美国核心CPI同比上涨3.3%，预期3.2%，前值3.2%；环比上涨0.3%，预期 0.2%，前值0.3%。 ➢ 核心观点：美国8月核心通胀超预期，背后依然是服务业的有力支撑。虽然美联储在9月 FOMC会议上更加明确了通胀目标已取得进展，但我们认为核心通胀的黏性依然是风险 点。市场已开始计价11月及12月至少有一次会议不降息的可能性，从估值层面或对美股产 生影响，同时也意味着美债收益率的下行可能不会一帆风顺。 ➢ 美国CPI与核心CPI分化加大。9月美国CPI同 ...

| --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 油价震荡为主， | | | 原油及聚酯产业链月报（ 证券分析师：吴骏燕 证券分析师：张季恺 | 关注国内宏观预期改善下的资产修复 2024 年 10 月） 证券分析师：谢建斌 执业证书编号： S0630522020001 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|----------------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | 一、油价回顾与展望 | | | | | | | | | 目 | | | | | 二、商品、 ...

总 量 研 究 [Table_Report] [Table_Reportdate] 2024年10月10日 资 产 配 置 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 胡少华 S0630516090002 hush@longone.com.cn [拐点已至，权益占优 Table_NewTitle] ——资产配置与比较月报（2024年10月） [table_main] 投资要点 ➢ 政策组合拳密集出台，大幅提振市场信心。9月24日国新办新闻发布会宣布政策组合拳出 台，超预期的9月26日政治局会议重磅政策定调强化逆周期调节。结合政治局会议提出， "当前经济运行出现一些新的情况和问题"，以及"努力完成全年经济社会发展目标任务" 来看，后续政策具备持续性的概率较大。降准降息落地后，实体融资成本下降叠加信心的 回升，能提振有效需求；央行创设的证券、基金、保险公司互换便利和股票回购、增持再 贷款有望带来增量中长期资金的流入，A股估值以及盈利可能 ...

晨 会 纪 要 [Table_Report] [Table_Reportdate] 2024年10月10日 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20241010 [table_main] 重点推荐 ➢ 1.三代制冷剂政策延续，看好制冷剂景气向上——氟化工行业月报 ➢ 2.油气资源储备对油气上市公司市值影响的研究——原油研究系列（二十） 财经要闻 ➢ 1.住建部、金融监管总局联合召开全国保交房工作推进视频会议。 ➢ 2.中办、国办发布《关于加快公共数据资源开发利用的意见》。 ➢ 3.央行与财政部联合工作组召开首次正式会议。 ➢ 4.国新办将召开新闻发布会，财政部部长蓝佛安将介绍"加大财政政策逆周期调节力度、 推动经济高质量发展"有关情况。 ➢ 5.美联储9月会议纪要显示，绝大多数成员支持将利率下调50个基点。 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 周啸宇 S0630519030001 zhouxiaoy@longone.com.cn 联系人： 赵敏敏 zmmin@longone.com.cn 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 一、成本端：原材料价格反弹，成本面支撑较强 二、生产端：产量总体维稳，全钢胎产能利用率小幅抬升 11 i 需求端：当前终端需求偏弱，四季度存向好预期 四、行业重要新闻 五、月度总结及展望 六、风险提示 最 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明 3 9 ● 9月轮胎上游原材料价格：2024年9月丁二烯均价13116.30元/吨，环比上涨5.93%，同比上涨57.15%；天然橡胶均价 1951.67美元/吨，环比上涨9.39%，同比上涨31.43%；丁苯橡胶均价15966.30元/吨，环比上涨7.07%，同比上涨 20.28%；炭黑均价8236.67元/吨，环比上涨6.59%，同比减少15.87%；锦纶帘子布均价21937.50元/吨，环比减少 1.40%，同比减少0.62%。 轮胎主要原材 ...

公 司 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年10月10日 公 司 简 评 汽 车 [Table_invest] 买入（维持） 报告原因：重大事项 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 黄涵虚 S0630522060001 hhx@longone.com.cn 联系人 陈芯楠 cxn@longone.com.cn | --- | --- | |--------------------------|---------------| | | | | 收盘价 | 13.67 | | 总股本 ( 万股 ) | 991,729 | | | 821,258/164,1 | | 流通 A 股 /B 股 ( 万股 ) | 61 | | 资产负债率 (%) | 60.49% | | 市净率 ( 倍 ) | 1.83 | | 净资产收益率 ( 加权 ) | 3.94 | | 12 个月内最高 / 最低价 | 21.48/11.43 | [Table_QuotePic] -32% -18% -5% 9% 22% 35% 49% 62% 23-10 24-01 24-04 24-07 长安汽车 沪深300 升 ...

存量优化，成本优先 传统煤化工行业研究框架专题报告 证券分析师：吴骏燕 执业证书编号：S0630517120001 证券分析师：谢建斌 执业证书编号：S0630522020001 证券分析师：张晶磊 执业证书编号：S0630524090001 联系人：马小萱 联系方式：mxxuan@longone.com.cn 2024年10月10日 www.longone.com.cn | --- | --- | |-------|------------------------| | | | | | 一、传统煤化工行业概述 | | | 二、合成氨 - 尿素 | | 目 | | | | 三、焦炭 | | | 四、电石 | | 录 | 五、结论与投资建议 | | | 六、风险提示 | 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------- ...