[table_invest] 标配 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] [Table_Reportdate] 2025年02月17日 周啸宇 S0630519030001 zhouxiaoy@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 张帆远 S0630524070002 zfy@longone.com.cn 联系人 赵敏敏 zmmin@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -21% -10% 1% 12% 23% 34% 45% 24-02 24-05 24-08 24-11 申万行业指数:电力设备(0763) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.光伏节后产业链价格维稳，多地将 海风项目纳入重点建设清单——新 能源电力行业周报（ 2025/02/05- 2025/02/07） 2.光伏新技术产业化加快，电动车需 求恢复——电力设备新能源行业周 报（2023/6/26-2023/7/02） [Table_NewTitle 电车以旧换新效果显著 ] ，强制配储取 消，储能市场将迎高质量发展 ——电池及储能行业周报（2025/02/10-2025/02/1 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the electronics sector, highlighting a moderate recovery in demand and recommending focus on specific investment themes such as AIOT and AI-driven technologies [4][5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the strong performance of major foundries like SMIC and Hua Hong, with SMIC achieving a revenue of $2.207 billion in Q4 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 31.52% and a sequential growth of 1.66% [4][9]. - The upcoming launch of Apple's iPhone SE4 is anticipated to boost the supply chain, with Alibaba collaborating with Apple to provide AI functionalities [4][10]. - The overall electronics industry is experiencing a mild recovery, with specific attention on AIOT, AI-driven sectors, and consumer electronics [4][5]. Summary by Sections Company Performance - SMIC reported a total revenue of $8.03 billion for 2024, exceeding initial expectations, with a gross margin of 18% and wafer shipments surpassing 8 million pieces [4][9]. - Hua Hong's Q4 revenue was $539.2 million, reflecting an 18.4% year-on-year increase, while its full-year revenue decreased by 12.3% due to ASP declines [4][10]. Market Trends - The report notes that 40.2% of SMIC's Q4 revenue came from consumer electronics, with smartphones and computers contributing 24.2% and 19.1% respectively [4][9]. - The electronics sector underperformed the broader market, with the Shenwan Electronics Index rising only 0.27% compared to a 1.19% increase in the CSI 300 Index [4][21]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on four main investment themes: AIOT, AI-driven innovations, upstream supply chain replacements, and consumer electronics recovery [4][5]. - Specific companies to watch include Lextar Technology, Cambrian Technology, and various semiconductor equipment and materials firms [4][5].

方霁 S0630523060001 fangji@longone.com.cn 联系人 董经纬 djwei@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] [Table_Reportdate] 2025年2月19日 标配 行 业 周 报 [Table_Authors] 证券分析师 [table_product] 相关研究 1.8月国内手机出货量同比上升 26.7%，联想发布多款AIPC新 品 — — 电 子 行 业 周 报 （20240923-20240929） 1. 北美云厂商资本开支持续高增， 海外科技股24Q4业绩多数回暖—— 电子行业周报（2025/2/3- 2025/2/9） 2. 全球及国内2024Q4智能手机出货 量同比增长，行业弱复苏格局持续 ——电子行业周报（2025/1/13- 2025/1/19） 3. RTX 50系列GPU发布，台积电四 季度营收超预期——电子行业周报 （2025/1/6-2025/1/12） [Table_NewTitle] 大陆代工龙头Q4业绩符合指引，苹果即 将发布iPhone SE4 ——电子行业周报2025/2/10-2025/2/16 ...

Group 1: New Energy Industry - The overall stability of the industrial chain post-holiday, with the introduction of market-oriented pricing reforms for new energy grid connection electricity [6][9] - In the photovoltaic sector, prices for polysilicon and silicon wafers remain stable, with slight increases in orders and production expected in March [7][8] - The wind power sector is influenced by new pricing mechanisms, which may lead to a rush in installations before June 1, 2025, while long-term development is expected to improve overall industry quality [10][11] Group 2: Food and Beverage Industry - The food and beverage sector shows signs of recovery, with a 2.34% increase in the sector, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.15 percentage points [12][13] - The liquor segment is experiencing a rebound in sentiment, with a focus on high-end brands and regional leaders as the market adjusts [13][17] - The beer market is expected to see marginal improvements in demand, supported by cost reductions and policy stimuli [15][17] Group 3: Banking Sector - The credit market has shown strong performance in January 2025, with a record high of 5.13 trillion yuan in new loans, indicating a robust start to the year [19][20] - The average loan interest rate has decreased, aligning with benchmark rates, which may alleviate concerns about bank margins [23][24] - The focus on stable dividends and recovery potential in the banking sector suggests a favorable outlook for leading small and medium-sized banks [24] Group 4: Tire Industry - The tire industry concluded 2024 on a high note, with strong production and sales, and is expected to see a gradual recovery in demand post-holiday [25] - Companies with overseas production capabilities and competitive strengths are recommended for investment [25] Group 5: Nonferrous Metals Industry - Copper and aluminum prices have slightly declined, but production demand is gradually recovering, with expectations for price stabilization [28][30] - The importance of raw mineral resources is highlighted, with recommendations for companies with cost advantages in the mining sector [30]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Bullish" rating for the tire industry, indicating a positive outlook for the next six months [55]. Core Insights - The tire industry experienced strong performance in 2024, with production and sales reaching high levels, and exports hitting a five-year peak. The market is expected to gradually recover post-holiday, particularly in export orders as overseas distributors replenish stock [55]. - The report highlights the mixed trends in raw material prices and an increase in shipping indices, which could impact cost structures in the industry [5][14]. Cost Side - In January 2025, the average price of key raw materials showed mixed trends: - Butadiene: 12,028.26 CNY/ton, up 15.42% month-on-month and 36.08% year-on-year - Natural rubber: 2,038.95 USD/ton, down 1.82% month-on-month but up 31.83% year-on-year - Styrene-butadiene rubber: 15,223.91 CNY/ton, up 2.66% month-on-month and 25.28% year-on-year - Carbon black: 6,829.03 CNY/ton, down 6.24% month-on-month and down 10.24% year-on-year - Nylon cord fabric: 20,500.00 CNY/ton, down 1.74% month-on-month and down 7.87% year-on-year [5][6]. Production Side - The tire production in December 2024 reached 105.56 million units, a year-on-year increase of 21.51% and a month-on-month increase of 2.04%. However, January 2025 saw a decline in production, with full steel tire production down 30.19% month-on-month and 24.86% year-on-year [23]. - The average operating rates for semi-steel tires and full-steel tires in January 2025 were 65.88% and 46.28%, respectively, both showing declines compared to the previous month and year [26]. Demand Side - Domestic demand experienced a seasonal decline due to holiday factors, but is expected to improve post-holiday as production resumes [40]. - Overseas demand remains strong, particularly in the replacement market in Europe and North America, with significant replenishment needs anticipated [56]. Industry News - Notable developments include the IPO approval for Zhongce Rubber, which aims to raise 4.85 billion CNY for various projects, and a 7.3% increase in rubber tire imports in the U.S. in 2024 [50][51]. - Goodyear reported a turnaround in 2024, achieving a net income of 70 million USD, indicating improved profitability [51].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on the industry, indicating a potential rise in the market index over the next six months [67]. Core Insights - The report highlights a gradual recovery in production demand for non-ferrous metals, particularly copper and aluminum, despite recent price declines [1][61]. - It emphasizes the importance of upstream resource availability and stable mining reserves, recommending companies with rich mineral resources [61]. - The report notes that while there is a short-term rebound in copper prices, the overall demand from downstream sectors may continue to contract [61]. Summary by Sections Commodity, Supply and Production - In January 2025, China's electrolytic copper inventory was approximately 115,600 tons, showing a decline of over 73% since June 2024, contributing to price instability [9]. - The global electrolytic copper inventory reached 1.53 million tons by December 2024, with a month-on-month increase of 7.3% and a year-on-year growth of 13.5% [9]. - China's electrolytic copper production in January 2025 was 1.0578 million tons, while consumption in December 2024 was 1.4205 million tons, indicating a persistent consumption gap [9]. Metal Industry Chain - The report indicates that the average capacity utilization rate for copper processing enterprises with a monthly capacity of over 60,000 tons was 109% in December 2024, reflecting an improvement in operational efficiency [13]. - In January 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.766 million tons, with consumption at approximately 3.936 million tons, indicating a narrowing demand gap [20]. Conclusion and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with integrated production chains that can benefit from cost advantages, such as Yunnan Copper and Jiangxi Copper [61]. - It also highlights the continued strong demand for electrolytic aluminum, recommending companies like Xinjiang Zhonghe and Yun Aluminum [61]. - The report anticipates a recovery in aluminum prices within the year, benefiting companies with rich mineral resources, such as Tianshan Aluminum [61].

金属铜、铝价小幅走低 生产需求持续缓慢回暖 有色金属及产业链月报（2025年2月） 证券分析师：张季恺 执业证书编号：S0630521110001 证券分析师：谢建斌 执业证书编号：S0630522020001 联系人：陈伟业 邮箱：cwy@longone.com.cn 2025年2月18日 目 录 一、商品、供需及生产 二、金属产业链 三、结论与投资建议 四、风险提示 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 金属铜供需基本面：国内铜供需及全球消费库存 资料来源：钢联数据， 东海证券研究所 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2022 2023 2024 2025 电解铜实际消费量 电解铜产量 现货库存(右轴，万吨） 国内铜矿供需及电解铜消费和库存量（万吨） 资料来源：钢联数据， 东海证券研究所 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 150 170 190 210 230 250 270 2021 2022 2023 2024 电解铜产量 电解铜消费 ...

目 录 一、成本端：原材料涨跌互现，海运指数上涨 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 二、生产端：2024年高水平收官，节后开工较缓恢复 三、需求端：国内季节性回调，海外需求延续修复 四、行业重要新闻 五、月度总结及展望 六、风险提示 1月主要原材料价格涨跌互现 ● 1月轮胎上游原材料价格：2025年1月丁二烯均价12028.26元/吨，环比上涨15.42%，同比上涨36.08%；天然橡胶均价 2038.95美元/吨，环比下降1.82%，同比上涨31.83%；丁苯橡胶均价15223.91元/吨，环比上涨2.66%，同比上涨 25.28%；炭黑均价6829.03元/吨，环比减少6.24%，同比减少10.24%；锦纶帘子布均价20500.00元/吨，环比减少 1.74%，同比减少7.87%。 2024年高景气收官，节后开工恢复性提升 轮胎行业月报 证券分析师：吴骏燕 执业证书编号：S0630517120001 证券分析师：张晶磊 执业证书编号：S0630524090001 证券分析师：谢建斌 执业证书编号：S0630522020001 联系方式： ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the food and beverage industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector has shown a positive market performance, with a 2.34% increase last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.15 percentage points, ranking 8th among 31 sectors [7][10]. - The report highlights a recovery in market expectations, particularly in the liquor segment, with a focus on channel transformation and strategic inventory management by leading companies [6][10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high-end liquor and regional leaders in the liquor market, suggesting a structural growth opportunity despite overall industry adjustments [7][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector's performance was strong, with notable gains in pre-processed foods and liquor, which rose by 3.40% and 3.13% respectively [10]. - Top-performing stocks included Yiming Food (+12.67%), Weizhi Flavor (+12.61%), and Shanxi Fenjiu (+9.27%) [10]. 2. Price Trends - The report provides detailed pricing for key liquor products, noting that the price of Moutai (both original and scattered) has shown slight fluctuations, with the original box price at 2255 yuan and scattered price at 2225 yuan as of February 16, 2024 [19]. - Beer production in December reached 2.41 million kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of 12.20%, while wine production saw a significant decline of 28.60% [25]. 3. Industry Dynamics - The report notes that the Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a transformation, with a projected production capacity of 650,000 kiloliters for sauce-flavored liquor in 2024, a 13.33% decrease from the previous year, but with expected sales revenue of 240 billion yuan, reflecting a 4.35% growth [52]. - New national standards for beer and spirits are set to be implemented in 2026, which may impact production practices and quality requirements [52]. 4. Core Company Developments - The report mentions specific company actions, such as Dayan Co. planning to distribute a cash dividend of 0.25 yuan per share, amounting to 24.3 million yuan, which represents 44.64% of its net profit for the third quarter of 2024 [53].

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年02月18日 超配 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 姚星辰 S0630523010001 yxc@longone.com.cn 联系人 吴康辉 wkh@longone.com.cn 联系人 陈涛 cht@longone.com.cn -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2024-02 2024-04 2024-06 2024-08 2024-10 2024-12 食品饮料(申万) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 3.头部酒企稳中求进，春节动销有序 推 进 — — 食 品 饮 料 行 业 周 报 （2024/1/6-2025/1/12） [Table_NewTitle 市场预期回暖，静待需求修复 ] ——食品饮料行业周报（2024/2/10-2025/2/16） [table_main] 投资要点： 行 业 研 究 品 饮 料 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 行 业 周 报 食 [table_invest] 1.春节动销符合预期，关注渠 ...