2025 年 04 月 10 日 证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 中无人机（688297.SH） 业绩短期承压，行业景气度持续复苏 | 财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 2,664 | 685 | 1,508 | 1,786 | 2,081 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | -3.9 | -74.3 | 120.0 | 18.5 | 16.5 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 303 | -54 | 112 | 134 | 159 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | -18.3 | -117.8 | 307.0 | 20.5 | 18.0 | | ROE（%） | 5.2 | -0.9 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 2.7 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | 0.45 | -0.08 | 0.17 | 0.20 | 0.24 | | P/E（倍） | 86.4 | -484.9 | 234.2 | 194.4 | 164.8 | | P/B（倍） | ...

证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2025 年 04 月 09 日 鸿日达（301285.SZ） 全年净利润水平承压，积极拓展 3D 打印及半导体散热片新业务 | 财务指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 594 | 721 | 862 | 1,218 | 1,695 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | -3.9 | 21.3 | 19.7 | 41.3 | 39.1 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 49 | 31 | -7 | 126 | 173 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | -21.4 | -37.0 | -124.1 | 1792.6 | 37.0 | | ROE（%） | 4.9 | 2.7 | -0.7 | 11.1 | 13.2 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | 0.24 | 0.15 | -0.04 | 0.61 | 0.84 | | P/E（倍） | 107.4 | 170.4 | -707.2 | 41.8 | 30.5 | | P/ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [4][21]. Core Views - The company is expected to see improved profitability in 2024, with a projected revenue of 61.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.89%, while net profit is expected to rise by 17.93% to 5.33 billion yuan [1][2]. - The company has successfully optimized cost control, leading to an overall improvement in profitability, with a gross margin of 17.50%, up 2.32 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company benefits from a strong position in the phosphate fertilizer market, supported by domestic policies aimed at stabilizing prices amid global uncertainties [3][8]. Financial Summary - Revenue and Profitability: - 2023 revenue was 69.06 billion yuan, projected to decrease to 61.54 billion yuan in 2024, with a gradual recovery expected in subsequent years [1]. - Net profit for 2024 is projected at 5.33 billion yuan, a 17.93% increase from 2023 [1][11]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to decline from 25.0% in 2023 to 24.6% in 2024 [1]. - Cash Flow and Expenses: - Operating cash flow is expected to increase by 13.93% to 10.75 billion yuan in 2024, driven by higher net profit [2]. - Financial expenses are projected to decrease by 30.52%, while management expenses are expected to rise by 12.38% [2]. - Dividend Policy: - The company plans to maintain a high dividend payout ratio, with a cash dividend of 14 yuan per 10 shares for 2024, amounting to 2.55 billion yuan, which is 47.86% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [3]. Industry Context - The phosphate fertilizer industry is experiencing a favorable environment due to policy support and a reduction in the number of less competitive firms, leading to increased market concentration [3][8]. - The company’s phosphate production capacity is significant, with a total phosphate rock reserve of nearly 800 million tons and a production capacity of 14.5 million tons per year [9][10]. - The company’s main products, including ammonium phosphate and compound fertilizers, have shown production and sales growth, contributing positively to overall performance [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting the stock price to outperform the industry index by over 15% in the next six months [5]. Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 is expected to be under pressure due to declining prices of its main products, spandex and adipic acid, influenced by market supply-demand imbalances. However, the industry is anticipated to gradually recover as concentration increases and downstream differentiated applications expand [2][4]. - The company is actively expanding its production capacity, including a 150,000-ton spandex expansion project and a 1.1 million-ton integrated natural gas base, which are expected to contribute positively to future revenues [4][10]. Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: The company is projected to achieve revenues of 26,931 million yuan in 2024, a 2.4% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 2,220 million yuan, reflecting a 10.4% decline [1][11]. - **Cash Flow**: The net cash flow from operating activities is expected to rise to 3,025 million yuan in 2024, a 22.53% increase year-on-year, while cash flow from investing activities is projected to decline significantly due to increased structural deposit purchases [3]. - **Key Financial Ratios**: The report highlights a decrease in gross profit margin to 13.83% in 2024, down 1.52 percentage points from the previous year, alongside an increase in financial and sales expenses [2][12]. Industry Insights - The spandex market is facing short-term challenges due to price declines, with the average price of domestic spandex 40D expected to drop by approximately 17.11% in 2024 [4]. - The adipic acid market is characterized by intense competition and price fluctuations, with a projected increase in domestic production capacity by 9.63% in 2024, leading to a supply-demand imbalance [9]. - The report notes that the polyurethane raw material market has significant growth potential, particularly in the footwear sector, where the application ratio is currently below that of developed countries [10].

Core Insights - The report highlights the unexpected severity of the new U.S. tariff policy, which has led to a significant decline in global trade volume and increased market volatility [1][2][3] - It suggests that the market is currently in a state of panic, and any attempts to "buy the dip" should be approached with caution until market sentiment stabilizes [2][3] Market Performance - Prior to the announcement of the tariff policy, the A-share market was relatively calm, with an average daily trading volume of 1.13 trillion yuan. However, following the announcement, the market experienced a downturn, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.28% and the ChiNext Index dropping by 2.95% [1] - The report notes that sectors closely related to domestic demand, such as food and beverage, real estate, and utilities, have shown resilience and led the market in the wake of the tariff announcement [1][3] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on three key investment lines in the A-share market: 1. Sectors with strong performance and a focus on domestic demand 2. Industries that are experiencing breakthroughs and are less affected by export conditions 3. Dividend-paying sectors that can provide a hedge during periods of uncertainty [3] - It emphasizes the importance of evaluating the quality of earnings reports from A-share companies, especially during the annual report disclosure period in April [3] AI Industry Outlook - The report maintains a positive long-term outlook for the AI industry, despite recent lack of catalysts and increased vulnerability to liquidity shocks, particularly in AI-related sectors represented by the Hang Seng Tech Index [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index within the next six months [4][19]. Core Insights - The company reported a robust growth in Q4 earnings, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 17.79% and a net profit increase of 74.41% [1]. - The overall gross margin improved by 3.31 percentage points to 47.97% in 2024, despite facing challenges from intense industry competition [2]. - The company is expanding its product offerings through the proposed acquisition of DeYou New Materials, which will enhance its capabilities in protective materials for consumer electronics [8][9]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 288 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 8.51%, while the net profit decreased by 15.02% to 82 million yuan [1][2]. - The projected revenues for the next few years are as follows: 385 million yuan in 2025, 500 million yuan in 2026, and 650 million yuan in 2027, with respective growth rates of 33.7%, 29.9%, and 30.0% [1]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 4.6% in 2025 to 9.5% in 2027 [1]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has established factories in Vietnam, the USA, and Thailand to enhance its overseas delivery capabilities and tap into new growth markets [3]. - The focus on developing new materials, particularly in the copper foil segment, is expected to broaden the product range and support growth in the 3C consumer electronics and automotive electronics sectors [8][9].

Group 1 - The overall trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets fell below 1 trillion yuan, indicating a continued decline in market enthusiasm due to global uncertainties [2][8] - The newly established equity fund shares (MA10) rapidly decreased to 1.891 billion shares on the last trading day [2][8] - The proportion of trading volume from stock ETFs rose sharply, reaching 7.04% of total A-share trading volume on April 3 [2][8] Group 2 - The proportion of strong stocks continued to decline, with the strong stock ratio at 53.81% as of April 3 [3][11] - The turnover rate for the entire A-share market weakened, dropping below the 80th percentile [3][11] - The 14-day RSI for the entire A-share market fell to 38.49, indicating a weakening momentum [3][11] Group 3 - The CSI 300 index decreased by 1.37%, while the ChiNext index fell by 2.95% [24] - The public utility and agriculture sectors showed the highest gains among industries last week [24] - The low volatility and small-cap factors achieved significant excess returns last week [24] Group 4 - The Hang Seng Index dropped by 2.46%, but the T10 valuation level still holds an advantage over M7 [24][27] - The proportion of southbound trading volume surged to 65.49% [24][38] - The one-year cross-border RMB interest rate differential remained near zero, while the US dollar index fell to 102.92 [25][39]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [4][17]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant profit recovery, with a projected revenue growth of 67.3% year-on-year for 2024, reaching 940 million yuan, and a net profit growth of 195.8%, amounting to 111 million yuan [1][8]. - The company has achieved notable success in bidding, ranking 20th among over 80 companies in the national grid's centralized bidding, with a total bid amount of 420 million yuan [2]. - The company is expanding its low-altitude intelligent inspection business into various application scenarios, with a projected CAGR of approximately 28.19% from 2022 to 2024 [3]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The company is expected to generate revenues of 1.36 billion yuan in 2025, 1.75 billion yuan in 2026, and 2.07 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 44.7%, 28.8%, and 17.8% respectively [1][8]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: The projected net profits are 134 million yuan in 2025, 166 million yuan in 2026, and 184 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 20.8%, 23.6%, and 10.8% respectively [1][8]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The EPS is expected to be 0.54 yuan in 2025, 0.67 yuan in 2026, and 0.74 yuan in 2027 [1][8]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for intelligent electric products, with a strong bidding performance and a growing market for smart services [2][3]. - The establishment of a subsidiary in the energy storage sector is expected to support future performance, with a significant order backlog of approximately 803 million yuan outside of energy storage as of the end of 2024 [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [5][19]. Core Viewpoints - The company has shown steady revenue growth, achieving an annual revenue of 9.139 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.02%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.117 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 1.38% [2][10]. - The company is actively participating in the global digitalization trend, integrating digital technology with manufacturing and market advantages to support the widespread application of large models in the industry [3][10]. - The company has established a robotics product business system, contributing to its revenue growth and enhancing its competitive position in both traditional and emerging industries [4]. Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: The company is projected to achieve revenues of 10.263 billion yuan, 11.594 billion yuan, and 13.188 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 1.281 billion yuan, 1.577 billion yuan, and 1.924 billion yuan in the same years [10]. - **Key Financial Metrics**: The company's return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to improve from 11.0% in 2024 to 14.3% by 2027. The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 1.41 yuan in 2024 to 2.43 yuan in 2027 [10][12]. - **Market Position**: The company maintains a leading market share in the domestic DCS market at 40.4%, with significant shares in the chemical and petrochemical sectors [9]. Industry Insights - The demand for industrial automation and smart manufacturing products is on the rise, with significant revenue contributions from control systems and industrial software, which grew by 7.87% and 20.70%, respectively [4]. - The company is benefiting from stable growth in traditional industries such as petrochemicals and chemicals, while also tapping into emerging sectors like oil and gas, pharmaceuticals, and food and beverage [4]. Conclusion - The report indicates a positive outlook for the company, driven by its strategic initiatives in digital transformation and robust market positioning, suggesting continued growth in revenue and profitability in the coming years [10].

Market Overview - After the Spring Festival and during the Two Sessions, the TMT sector led by Deepseek has initiated a "revaluation of Chinese assets" trend, supported by a relatively stable RMB exchange rate and positive policy expectations[1] - The A-share and Hong Kong technology sectors currently exhibit a high risk appetite, although adjustments have been observed since mid-March due to uncertainties surrounding the new round of "reciprocal tariffs" from the US and concerns over AI "computing power bubbles"[1] - In March, the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300 Index, and ChiNext Index recorded gains of +0.45%, -0.07%, and -3.07%, respectively[1] Policy and Economic Outlook - The 2025 Two Sessions emphasized expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption as primary objectives, with a focus on addressing low domestic inflation and external uncertainties[2] - The "Consumption Promotion Action Plan" issued on March 16 aims to enhance consumer capacity and stabilize the stock market, with expectations for new capital market policies to accelerate implementation[2] - The central bank reiterated the need for a moderately loose monetary policy, with potential for reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rate cuts based on economic conditions[2] Investment Recommendations - Focus on large consumption and cyclical industries in Q2, particularly those showing signs of recovery or strong performance[3] - Continue to monitor defensive sectors such as banking and dividend stocks due to external uncertainties[4] - The long-term trend for AI remains positive, with significant investment from major domestic companies, presenting potential short-term investment opportunities during market corrections[5] Selected Stock Portfolio - The recommended portfolio includes stocks from various sectors: China Mobile, Hongri Da, Lu Wei Optoelectronics, Sinovac Biotech, and others, covering telecommunications, pharmaceuticals, machinery, and non-bank financials[5]