投资策略研究 特朗普胜选后影响几何 据 AP 美联社统计,截至北京时间 11/7上午8时,特朗普已获得 295张选举 人票,成为美国一个多世纪以来首位并非通过竞选连任而赢得第二个任期的 前总统。与此同时,共和党已经拿下了参议院的控制权(52席),并在众议 院选举中占据了 205个席位(获得 218席将获得众议院控制权)。当前来看, 共和党有较大概率将控制参众两院。 回顾特朗普经济及地缘政策主张,主要集中在以下几个方面:1)税收:强调 通过减税来刺激经济增长,大幅降低个人税收和企业税收,鼓励海外利润回 流。2)贸易:坚持全面关税政策,主张对进口商品征收更多关税,以保护美 国产业和就业,批评了以往的自由贸易协定,如北美自由贸易协定(NAFTA), 并推动了新的美墨加协议(USMCA)来取代它。3)能源:倾向于支持传统 能源,如石油和煤炭,而不是清洁能源,特朗普政府减少对清洁能源的补贴 和支持,尤其是在太阳能和风能领域,特朗普执政期间宣布退出巴黎气候协 定,认为该协定对美国经济不利。4)军事:特朗普可能要求北约停止援助乌 克兰。可能会加大投入以色列,以色列将会成为美国新的财政损耗点。 从资产价格角度看,特朗普当选将 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for Yihu Co., Ltd. (益湖股份) [1] Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure due to declining potassium and lithium prices, but there is potential for recovery as new projects progress [1][6] - The report highlights that potassium chloride prices are stabilizing and may rebound, while lithium carbonate prices are expected to return to reasonable levels as high-cost production capacity is phased out [2][6] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 30,739 million CNY, with a projected decline to 14,927 million CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year decrease of 30.8% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders decreased from 15,568 million CNY in 2022 to an estimated 4,881 million CNY in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 38.3% [1] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to drop from 69.0% in 2022 to 14.3% in 2024 [1] Operational Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 10,449 million CNY, down 33.83% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3,141 million CNY, down 43.91% year-on-year [1][2] - The sales expense ratio increased to 0.65%, while the management expense ratio rose to 8.11% in the same period [3] - Cash flow from operating activities decreased by 48.45% year-on-year, indicating significant cash flow challenges [3] Project Development - The 40,000 tons/year integrated salt and lithium project is progressing as planned, with completion expected by the end of the year [3][6] - The company has signed contracts worth approximately 4.247 billion CNY for the project, indicating strong commitment to its development [3] Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the company's revenue will recover to 15,667 million CNY in 2025 and 17,741 million CNY in 2026, with corresponding net profits of 5,303 million CNY and 6,135 million CNY [6] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is 0.90 CNY, with expectations of growth to 1.13 CNY by 2026 [1][6]

Market Trends and Risk Preferences - A-share active equity funds showed a higher risk preference in Q3 2024, with a weighted average market capitalization of 200.313 billion yuan, reflecting a contraction in size and potential portfolio optimization[2][6] - The average dividend yield of heavily held stocks rose to 1.69%, while the volatility remained high at 40.69%, indicating a willingness to bear higher market risks[2][6] - The average revenue growth rate of heavily held stocks slowed to 22.26%, with an average ROE of 14.76%, reflecting a balance between high growth and stability[2][6] Portfolio Composition and Valuation - The unweighted proportion of negative PE stocks was 11.86%, while the weighted proportion was 4.42%, showing that fund managers maintained some exposure to stocks with volatile earnings[2][6] - The weighted average PE of heavily held stocks was 38.43, indicating a preference for growth-oriented stocks despite the higher valuation[2][6] Risk Factors and Market Outlook - The data on heavily held stocks does not represent the entire portfolio, and historical data cannot predict future performance, with risks including market volatility and geopolitical influences[3][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index within the next six months [15]. Core Insights - The company has significantly improved its profitability, achieving a net profit of 143 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a substantial turnaround from a loss of 46 million yuan in 2023 [2][3]. - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 1.281 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 55.34% [2][3]. - The company has successfully expanded its international customer base, securing long-term contracts with major global players such as Infineon and Bosch, which enhances its market position [4][5]. Financial Performance - Revenue growth rates are projected at 45.1% for 2024, 70.3% for 2025, and 35.6% for 2026, with expected revenues of 1.815 billion yuan, 3.09 billion yuan, and 4.19 billion yuan respectively [2][10]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 25.78%, an increase of 11.01 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved profitability [3]. - The company’s net profit margin reached 11.16%, up by 19.44 percentage points year-on-year, showcasing enhanced operational efficiency [3]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The global market for electric vehicles is projected to grow from approximately 65.57 billion USD in 2024 to 117.43 billion USD by 2031, with a CAGR of about 8.5% from 2024 to 2031, indicating a robust demand for the company's products [4]. - The company has achieved a leading position in the global market for conductive silicon carbide substrates, ranking among the top three suppliers [5]. - The company is actively increasing its production capacity, particularly for 8-inch products, which are expected to see a growing share in sales as demand from major semiconductor manufacturers rises [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index within the next six months [3][14]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant improvement in profitability, with a notable recovery in gross margins. The profit growth is attributed to the gradual recovery of business demand from key industry clients, expansion of product categories, and new business increments from the artificial intelligence sector [2]. - The company has made substantial progress in expanding its overseas business, establishing a partnership with a leading company in graphics technology and AI computing, which has resulted in a sequential increase in revenue from this collaboration [2]. - The company emphasizes its commitment to independent research and development, having established multiple R&D centers and obtained numerous patents, which strengthens its competitive edge in the audio and video chip sector [2]. Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 327 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.21%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 52 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 344.55% [1]. - The company’s revenue for the third quarter was 93 million yuan, down 22.22% year-on-year, but the net profit increased by 146.34% year-on-year to 12 million yuan [1]. - The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are expected to be 132 million yuan, 207 million yuan, and 332 million yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 47, 30, and 19 times [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Longbai Group, indicating an expectation of stock price appreciation relative to the industry index by over 15% in the next six months [6][16]. Core Views - Longbai Group's performance has shown a quarter-on-quarter increase despite a decline in titanium dioxide and sponge titanium prices, attributed to sales growth and upstream titanium ore resource layout [2][6]. - The company is expected to expand its titanium ore resource reserves, providing a solid raw material guarantee for future production [4][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, Longbai Group reported operating revenue of 20.866 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.98%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.564 billion yuan, up 19.68% year-on-year [1]. - The third quarter of 2024 saw operating revenue of 7.075 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.87% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.78% [1]. - The company's net profit for the third quarter was 842 million yuan, down 4.29% year-on-year but up 9.33% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Longbai Group are 29.313 billion yuan for 2024, 32.316 billion yuan for 2025, and 36.853 billion yuan for 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.5%, 10.2%, and 14.0% respectively [6][10]. - Net profit forecasts are 3.351 billion yuan for 2024, 3.995 billion yuan for 2025, and 4.809 billion yuan for 2026, with corresponding growth rates of 3.9%, 19.2%, and 20.4% [6][11]. Cost and Expense Analysis - Sales expenses decreased by 5.60% year-on-year, with a sales expense ratio of 1.84% [3]. - Financial expenses increased by 58.36% year-on-year, with a financial expense ratio of 1.44% [3]. - Research and development expenses decreased by 20.89% year-on-year, with a research expense ratio of 4.20% [3]. Cash Flow Overview - The net cash flow from operating activities for the first three quarters of 2024 was 2.592 billion yuan, up 13.61% year-on-year [3]. - The net cash flow from investing activities was -1.078 billion yuan, an increase of 44.39% year-on-year [3]. - The net cash flow from financing activities was -889 million yuan, a decrease of 338.01% year-on-year [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guoci Materials (300285 SZ) [1] Core Views - Guoci Materials achieved steady profit growth in 3Q24 with multiple business segments showing strong performance [1] - The company's 2024 Q3 revenue reached 1 013 billion yuan up 8 11% YoY but down 10 11% QoQ Net profit attributable to shareholders was 152 million yuan up 24 51% YoY but down 22 97% QoQ [1] - The company's performance in the first three quarters of 2024 was in line with expectations driven by recovery in electronic materials demand growth in new energy materials sales and capacity release in precision ceramic materials [2] - The company's strategic layout and product advantages in the new energy sector are expected to further boost its performance as the new energy vehicle market continues to grow [6] - The ceramic metallization project is expected to become a major growth driver for the company integrating the industrial chain from ceramic powder to metallization and promoting domestic import substitution [7] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024 the company's operating income was 2 966 billion yuan up 6 42% YoY Net profit attributable to shareholders was 482 million yuan up 9 38% YoY [1] - The company's gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 39 65% up 2 75 percentage points YoY Net profit margin was 18 21% up 0 79 percentage points YoY [2] - Operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2024 was 357 million yuan up 13 54% YoY [3] - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 4 189 billion yuan in 2024E to 5 945 billion yuan in 2026E with net profit attributable to shareholders increasing from 686 million yuan to 1 129 billion yuan over the same period [1][8] Business Segments - In the electronic materials segment the company has achieved comprehensive coverage of key raw materials for MLCC dielectric powder and is expected to gradually form domestic substitution with its slurry business becoming an important growth driver [4] - In the new energy materials segment the company's coated separator materials saw both volume and price increases in the first three quarters of 2024 contributing to performance growth [6] - In the precision ceramics segment the company's ceramic balls have been adopted by leading new energy vehicle manufacturers with demand increasing significantly in 3Q24 [6] - In the biomaterials segment the company has completed the overseas red chip structure for its dental business and obtained EU medical device regulatory compliance certificates accelerating its expansion into the European market [4][6] Strategic Developments - The company's ceramic metallization project with a total investment of 150 million yuan started construction in June 2024 aiming to establish a high end ceramic metallization product line [7] - The project is expected to expand the company's application fields into thin film sensors microwave radar devices and other high end precision ceramic products [7]

证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2024 年 11 月 06 日 金雷股份（300443.SZ） 盈利能力明显回暖，规模效益逐步体现 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------------------------------------------------|------------------| | 财务指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | 增持（维持评级） 2025E | | | 营业收入（百万元） | 1,812 | 1,946 | 2,100 | 2,888 | 3,923 | 8,113 股票信息 | | | 增长率 yoy （ % ） | 9.7 | 7.4 | 7.9 | 37.5 | 35.8 | 11.4 | | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 352 | 412 | 390 | 559 | 745 | 行业 1,018 | 电力设备及新能源 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2024 年 11 月 06 日 新化股份（603867.SH） 3Q24 公司盈利短期承压，关注公司香料产能逐步释放 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|------------------------------------------|----------| | 财务指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | 买入（维持评级） | | | 营业收入（百万元） | 2,683 | 2,597 | 3,116 | 3,676 | 4,207 | | | | 增长率 yoy （ % ） | 5.0 | -3.2 | 20.0 | 18.0 | 14.5 | 股票信息 | | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 329 | 253 | 306 | 448 | 556 | 行业 | 基础化工 | | 增长率 y ...

证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2024 年 11 月 04 日 华勤技术（603296.SH） Q3 营收同环比高增，内生外延增量可期 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------|--------|--------|---------|---------|---------|------------------------------------------|-----------| | | | | | | | | | | 财务指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | 买入（维持评级） | | | 营业收入（百万元） | 92,646 | 85,338 | 100,272 | 115,635 | 133,873 | 股票信息 | | | 增长率 yoy （ % ） | 10.6 | -7.9 | 17.5 | 15.3 | 15.8 | | | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 2,564 | 2,707 | 3,02 ...