Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company has a strong order backlog of 3.025 billion yuan as of the end of Q2 2025, with AI-related orders accounting for approximately 64% of new contracts signed, which increased by 85.88% compared to the same period last year [4][5] - The company plans to acquire Chiplet Technology to enhance its CPU IP offerings, aiming to build a comprehensive heterogeneous computing IP platform [5] - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 3.1 billion, 4 billion, and 5.3 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to turn positive by 2026 [6][8] Company Overview - The latest closing price is 173.00 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 90.9 billion yuan [3] - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 54.2% and is primarily owned by VeriSilicon Limited [3] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow at rates of -0.69% in 2024, 31.96% in 2025, 31.77% in 2026, and 31.37% in 2027 [8][13] - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 98.29 million yuan in 2026 and 286.71 million yuan in 2027, indicating a significant turnaround from losses in 2024 and 2025 [8][13] Relative Valuation - The company is positioned as a leading AI ASIC enterprise with a strong IP reserve, competing effectively with global peers [11] - The relative valuation analysis suggests a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 30.65x for 2025, reflecting the company's growth potential in the semiconductor industry [11][12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term bond market sentiment remains under pressure. It is crucial to verify that the rebound high of long - term interest rates is gradually decreasing. If 1.8% is confirmed as the relatively high level of the 10 - year Treasury bond, the bond - bull logic can be maintained. In the medium term, the recovery of risk appetite is mainly reflected in the term spread premium, which may reach 50 - 60BP in extreme cases. In September 2025, the bond market is more likely to experience a weak recovery rather than a seasonal adjustment [2][9]. - The term spread of ultra - long bonds is difficult to return to extremely low levels but is unlikely to expand significantly, and there is no need to refer to the historical range above 40BP before 2023 [3][14]. - The short - term recovery of the bond market may be driven by monetary easing. If a 10BP policy rate cut is implemented, the central level of funds and short - term varieties will decline by more than 10BP. The performance of long - term bonds is more affected by expected pricing, and the resistance at 1.7% - 1.75% of the 10 - year Treasury bond may be significant [4][19]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Bond Market Situation in September 2025 - The bond market has not significantly recovered, long - term bond interest rates are oscillating, and the term spread is expanding. After the public offering fee new rule and the central bank bond - buying expectation emerged, the long - term interest rate rebounded after breaking through 1.8% and then maintained an oscillating state. The term spread has not stopped recovering due to the unclear impact of the public offering fee new rule on the liability side [3][9]. 3.2 Analysis of Ultra - Long Bond Term Spread - **Difficulty in Returning to Low Levels and Limited Expansion**: The ultra - long bond term spread is closely related to risk appetite, reflecting the marginal change in the household debt cycle. As the household sector's leverage ratio has entered the stable - leverage stage and the real - estate cycle has not ended, the improvement of household risk appetite is limited, so the term spread is difficult to return to the high - level range before extreme compression [14][15]. - **Uncertainty from Supply and Demand**: Although the supply of ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds has increased (as of mid - September, the stock of ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds over 10 years has reached 27.3 trillion yuan, and the proportion has increased from 7% in Q1 2019 to 23%), it is difficult to determine the term spread trend from the supply side alone because the demand elasticity has a greater and unpredictable impact. Historically, the term spread has compressed even when the supply increased. In the short term, the completion of ultra - long bond issuance in Q4 may reduce the spread expansion pressure [17]. 3.3 Short - Term Bond Market Recovery Drivers - The short - term recovery of the bond market may be driven by monetary easing. A 10BP policy rate cut will lead to a central decline of more than 10BP in the funds and short - term varieties. The 10 - year Treasury bond has heavy chips around 1.7% - 1.75%, and the resistance to unwinding may be obvious [4][19].

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the real estate policy continues to optimize, and expectations for domestic demand are strengthening. The focus is on sectors such as waterproofing, cement, and float glass, which are expected to benefit significantly from improved cash flow and are currently at the bottom of the industry cycle [4][5] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the construction materials sector is 5249.34, with a 52-week high of 5355.99 and a low of 3519.19 [1] Cement Sector - The cement industry is entering its peak season, with overall demand showing a slow recovery. In August 2025, the monthly cement production was 148 million tons, down 6.2% year-on-year. The industry is expected to see a decline in capacity under the anti-overproduction policy, leading to a significant increase in capacity utilization [5][10] Glass Sector - The glass industry is experiencing a downward trend in demand due to real estate impacts, with supply and demand still in conflict. The report anticipates that the anti-overproduction policy will not lead to a drastic capacity reduction but will raise environmental standards and costs, accelerating the industry's maintenance progress [5][15] Fiberglass Sector - The fiberglass sector is driven by demand from the AI industry, with low dielectric products experiencing a surge in both volume and price. The report expects a continued upward trend in demand alongside AI developments [5] Consumer Building Materials - The profitability of the consumer building materials sector has reached a bottom, with no further downward price pressure. The industry is seeing a strong demand for price increases, particularly in waterproofing, coatings, and gypsum boards, with expectations for improved profitability in the second half of the year [6][7] Market Performance - In the past week (September 15-21), the construction materials sector index increased by 0.43%, while the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 1.30%. The construction materials sector ranked 12th in performance among 31 first-level sub-industry indices [8]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Diffusion Index Industry Rotation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model is based on the principle of price momentum, aiming to capture upward trends in industries through a diffusion index[26][27] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the diffusion index for each industry based on price momentum 2. Rank industries by their diffusion index values 3. Select top industries for allocation based on their rankings 4. Adjust the portfolio monthly or weekly based on updated diffusion index rankings[26][27] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has shown stable performance in certain years (e.g., 2022 with an annual excess return of 6.12%) but struggled during market reversals or concentrated market themes, such as in 2024 and 2025[26][33] 2. Model Name: GRU Factor Industry Rotation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model leverages GRU (Gated Recurrent Unit) deep learning networks to process high-frequency volume and price data, aiming to identify industry rotation opportunities[38] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Input high-frequency volume and price data into the GRU network 2. Train the GRU model on historical data to identify patterns in industry rotation 3. Generate factor scores for industries based on the GRU model's output 4. Rank industries by their GRU factor scores and allocate to top-ranked industries[38][34] - **Model Evaluation**: The model performs well in short cycles but struggles in long cycles or extreme market conditions. It has shown difficulty in capturing excess returns in concentrated market themes during 2025[33][38] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Diffusion Index Industry Rotation Model - **Weekly Average Return**: -1.74%[30] - **Excess Return (Weekly)**: -1.41%[30] - **Excess Return (September 2025)**: -1.88%[30] - **Excess Return (2025 YTD)**: 2.76%[25][30] 2. GRU Factor Industry Rotation Model - **Weekly Average Return**: -0.72%[36] - **Excess Return (Weekly)**: -0.38%[36] - **Excess Return (September 2025)**: -0.10%[36] - **Excess Return (2025 YTD)**: -7.78%[33][36] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Diffusion Index - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the breadth of price momentum across industries to identify upward trends[26][27] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the proportion of stocks in an industry with positive price momentum 2. Aggregate these proportions to derive the diffusion index for the industry 3. Rank industries based on their diffusion index values[27][28] - **Factor Evaluation**: Effective in capturing upward trends but vulnerable to reversals and underperformance in counter-trend markets[26][33] 2. Factor Name: GRU Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Utilizes GRU deep learning to analyze high-frequency trading data and generate predictive scores for industry rotation[38] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Input high-frequency trading data into the GRU network 2. Train the model to recognize patterns in industry rotation 3. Output factor scores for industries based on the model's predictions[38][34] - **Factor Evaluation**: Strong in short-term predictions but less effective in long-term or extreme market conditions[33][38] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Diffusion Index - **Top Industries (Weekly)**: Non-ferrous Metals (0.978), Banking (0.968), Communication (0.946), Electronics (0.877), Automotive (0.874), Retail (0.873)[27] - **Bottom Industries (Weekly)**: Food & Beverage (0.354), Real Estate (0.46), Coal (0.487), Transportation (0.543), Construction (0.574), Building Materials (0.618)[27] 2. GRU Factor - **Top Industries (Weekly)**: Non-ferrous Metals (7.4), Petrochemicals (5.38), Coal (4.17), Steel (4.15), Building Materials (3.46), Non-banking Financials (3.08)[34] - **Bottom Industries (Weekly)**: Comprehensive Finance (-19.42), Utilities (-13.41), Electronics (-13.18), Pharmaceuticals (-11.14), Automotive (-10.07), Consumer Services (-10.04)[34]

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1]. Core Insights - The adjustment of the National Essential Medicines List (NEML) is expected to continue, with a focus on opportunities for the inclusion of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) products [4][5][18]. - The report highlights the importance of the NEML adjustment cycle, which is generally not more than three years, and the potential for TCM products to be added to the list [5][17]. - The report suggests focusing on innovative drug research and development, particularly in TCM, and recommends specific companies as potential investment targets [19][34]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector is 9096.29, with a weekly high of 9323.49 and a low of 6070.89 [1]. Recent Market Performance - During the week of September 15-19, 2025, the A-share pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector fell by 2.07%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.63 percentage points and the ChiNext index by 4.41 percentage points [6][20]. - The sector ranked 25th among 31 first-level sub-industries in terms of weekly performance [6]. Investment Recommendations 1. **Innovative Drugs**: The report suggests that the innovative drug sector may experience fluctuations but emphasizes the importance of identifying high-quality assets. Recommended companies include Innovent Biologics, 3SBio, and others [7][24]. 2. **CXO Services**: The report indicates that the domestic innovative drug sector is stabilizing, with expected improvements in the CRO industry performance. Recommended companies include WuXi AppTec and Tigermed [25][26]. 3. **Biological Products**: Focus on opportunities for core product volume growth and potential valuation adjustments based on product data or business development expectations. Recommended companies include TianTan Bio and others [29]. 4. **Medical Devices**: The report anticipates a turning point in the medical device sector due to improved procurement funding and anti-corruption measures. Recommended companies include Mindray and others [30]. 5. **Traditional Chinese Medicine**: The report highlights the potential for TCM products to benefit from NEML policies and suggests companies like Zhaoke Ophthalmology and others as beneficiaries [33][34]. Market Trends - The report notes that the pharmaceutical sector's overall valuation (TTM) is 31.24, with a relative valuation premium of 136.13% compared to the CSI 300 index [44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The high - frequency economic data shows that the production side is relatively stable, with the decline of coke oven and asphalt开工率 and a slight increase in blast furnace, PX, and tire开工率, and a continuous decrease in rebar production. The real - estate market has marginally improved, with a slight increase in commercial housing transaction area. Price trends are differentiated, with international - priced crude oil and copper prices slightly falling, and domestically - priced coking coal and rebar prices rising; agricultural product prices are falling while egg prices are rising before the festival. Residents' travel is heating up, with an increase in subway passenger volume and domestic and international flight volumes, and a continuous upward trend in the peak congestion index of first - tier cities. The domestic and international shipping index trends are also differentiated, with the BDI index continuously recovering and the domestic SCFI index accelerating its decline. In the short term, attention should be focused on the implementation of anti - involution and incremental policies, the recovery of the real - estate market, and the impact of overseas policies [2][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Production - Coke oven and asphalt开工率 decreased, while blast furnace, PX, and tire开工率 increased slightly. In the week of September 19, the coke oven capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.23 pct, the blast furnace开工率 increased by 0.15 pct, and rebar production decreased by 5.48 tons. The petroleum asphalt开工率 decreased by 0.5 pct. The chemical PX开工率 increased by 2.06 pct compared with the previous week, and PTA remained flat. The all - steel tire开工率 of automobiles increased by 0.07 pct, and the semi - steel tire开工率 increased by 0.2 pct [3][9][10]. 3.2 Demand - Commercial housing transactions increased slightly, and the SCFI index decreased significantly. In the week of September 14, the commercial housing transaction area increased slightly, the inventory - to - sales ratio increased, the land supply area decreased, and the residential land transaction premium rate declined. The movie box office decreased by 169 million yuan compared with the previous week. The average daily retail sales of automobile manufacturers increased by 17,700 vehicles, and the average daily wholesale sales increased by 22,700 vehicles. In the week of September 19, the shipping index SCFI decreased by 14.3%, the CCFI decreased by 0.45%, and the BDI increased by 3.62% [3][14][22]. 3.3 Prices - Crude oil and non - ferrous metals prices fell, while coking coal and rebar prices rose. In the week of September 19, the Brent crude oil price fell by 0.46% to $66.68 per barrel; the coking coal futures price rose by 6.9% to 1,216 yuan per ton. The LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by - 0.71%, - 0.93%, and - 1.95% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures price rose by 1.64%. The overall price of agricultural products declined, with the prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changing by - 2.01%, + 4.91%, - 1.78%, and + 1.48% respectively compared with the previous week [3][24][27]. 3.4 Logistics - Subway passenger volume and flight volume both increased. In the week of September 19, the subway passenger volume in Beijing and Shanghai increased, the number of domestic and international flights increased, and the peak congestion index of first - tier cities continued to rise [4][30][32].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the basic chemical sector has shown a decline of 1.33% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.89 percentage points [6][19] - Key companies to focus on include Wanhua Chemical, Yangnong Chemical, Hengli Petrochemical, and Hualu Hengsheng, with a specific interest in agricultural chemicals and technology sectors such as liquid cooling and PCB supply chains [5] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the basic chemical sector is at 4048.88, with a weekly high of 4123.45 and a low of 2721.92 [2] Price Movements - Major price increases were observed in products such as liquid chlorine (up 22.93%), dichloromethane (up 19.44%), and bismuth ingots (up 12.39%) [9][25] - Conversely, prices for vitamin E decreased by 10.00%, and other products like β-methyl naphthalene and trichloro-sucrose also saw significant declines [10][27] Stock Performance - Notable stock performances included significant gains for companies like Kaimete Gas (up 28.62%) and Guangdong Hongda (up 22.93%), while companies like Runyang Technology and Wankai New Materials experienced declines of 11.48% and 10.42%, respectively [7][22] Key Company Ratings - Wanhua Chemical is rated "Buy" with a closing price of 65.3 and a market cap of 204.45 billion [12] - Yangnong Chemical is also rated "Buy" with a closing price of 71.2 and a market cap of 28.86 billion [12] - Other companies such as Meihua Biological and Bailong Chuangyuan remain unrated [12]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Strongly Outperform" [2] Core Viewpoints - The capital expenditure of battery manufacturers is recovering, indicating a new round of expansion in lithium battery equipment [2] - From 2024 to 2030, the global demand for power batteries is expected to grow at a CAGR of approximately 25%, while energy storage batteries are projected to grow at a CAGR of about 29% [14][18] - The demand for global power and energy storage batteries is expected to increase from 209 GWh in 2020 to 5,154 GWh by 2030, with a CAGR of 26.5% from 2024 to 2030 [20] Summary by Sections 1.1 Capacity Utilization of CATL - CATL's capacity utilization has recovered to 90% in the first half of 2025, compared to 83%, 70%, and 76% in 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively [4][6] 1.2 Capital Expenditure of CATL - CATL's capital expenditure has shown a significant recovery since Q4 2024, with H1 2025 reaching 20.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46% [7][10] 1.4 Demand Side: Global Power Battery Growth - The global power battery shipment is expected to grow from 182 GWh in 2020 to 3,754 GWh by 2030, with a CAGR of 25.3% from 2024 to 2030 [17] 1.5 Equipment Space for CATL's Expansion - By the end of 2027, CATL is expected to have a capacity gap of approximately 300-600 GWh, corresponding to a value space of 40-70 billion yuan in the equipment sector [22] 1.6 Contract Liabilities of Major Lithium Battery Equipment Companies - The contract liabilities of major lithium battery equipment companies have shown a significant recovery in H1 2025, exceeding previous high points [29] 1.8 Profitability of Equipment Companies - The profitability of major lithium battery equipment companies is in a recovery phase, with net profit margins and gross profit margins showing signs of improvement [38] 1.9 Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies to focus on include Lianying Laser, Yinghe Technology, XianDao Intelligent, Haimeixing, Xianhui Technology, Honggong Technology, and MannsTech [41]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [2][10]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a sequential increase in revenue in the second half of the year, driven by an improved product mix and stable pricing [6]. - The company has successfully validated cost-reduction solutions for Wi-Fi 6/6E and has entered mass production for the second-generation non-linear Wi-Fi 7 module, which shows significant improvements in energy efficiency and signal quality [7]. - The company is diversifying its product offerings, with successful sales of L-PAMiD modules and plans for new products targeting both domestic and international markets [8]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 987 million yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year decrease of 7.93%, with the RF power amplifier module contributing 80.19% of the main business revenue [6]. - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.32 billion, 2.94 billion, and 3.53 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 40 million, 140 million, and 406 million yuan [9][11]. - The company’s gross margin for Q2 was 28.02%, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.05 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.76 percentage points [6]. Relative Valuation - The company is one of the earliest integrated circuit design firms in China focusing on RF front-end chip development, with a strong position in the RF power amplifier market [14]. - Compared to peers, the company is expected to maintain a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 7.38 in 2025, which is competitive within the industry [15].

Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, aligning with market expectations[1] - The median rate forecast for the end of the year is 3.5%-3.75%, indicating an additional 50 basis points of potential cuts within the year[2] - Powell characterized the rate cut as a "risk management cut," reflecting a balanced policy stance between hawkish and dovish views[1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The Fed raised its real GDP growth forecast for next year to 1.8% while slightly lowering the unemployment rate forecast and raising core inflation expectations[2] - There is significant divergence among committee members regarding future rate cuts, with 9 members advocating for 2 more cuts, while 6 believe no further cuts are necessary[2] - Despite a weakening job market, consumer and retail sales indicators remain robust, suggesting a favorable environment for risk assets[3] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The likelihood of two additional 25 basis point cuts in upcoming meetings is high, making the current environment favorable for equities[3] - Investors are advised to maintain equity asset allocations until there is a clear deterioration in economic indicators[3] Group 4: Risk Factors - Unexpectedly strong recovery in the job market and persistent inflation above expectations could delay the Fed's rate cut schedule[4]