证券研究报告 石化行业周报：持续关注反内卷进展 行业投资评级：强大于市|维持 中邮证券研究所石化团队 分析师:张津圣 SAC 登记编号:S1340524040005 1 1 发布时间：2025-12-17 投资要点 请参阅附注免责声明 2 ◼ 焦点：原油关注OPEC+未来政策。关注PTA反内卷进展。持续关注石化反内卷进展，石化行业中老旧装 置淘汰退出和更新改造的进展。 ◼ 回顾：本周申万一级行业指数表现中，石油石化指数表现较差，较上周下跌3.52%。而中信三级行业指 数表现来看，本周工程服务在石油石化中表现最佳，跌幅1.75%。 ◼ 原油：原油跌；美原油库存下跌，汽油库存上涨 ◼ 聚酯：涤纶长丝价格整体平稳、价差跌。江浙织机涤纶长丝库存天数分品种有涨有跌，织机开工率跌 ◼ 烯烃：样本PE现货价格稳中有跌，聚烯烃石化库存上涨 ◼ 标的： ➢ 上游：地缘若未来再次给出原油溢价，则利好上游标的。 ➢ 炼化：若需求好转，优供给、淘汰落后产能有所进展，则利好中游炼化。 ➢ 长丝：关注PTA反内卷进展，若顺利则利好涤纶长丝。 ◼ 风险提示：油价剧烈波动、地缘风险、欧美通胀反复、欧美经济波动、行业政策变化、项目投产进度变 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [2] Core Insights - The company plans to invest a total of 42.97 billion RMB in its Thailand park to build production facilities and supporting infrastructure, which will enhance its AI product line capacity [5][6] - The company intends to acquire a 53.68% stake in Huayang Technology for 360 million RMB, strengthening its position in the automotive electronics sector [6] - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 384.5 billion, 452.0 billion, and 540.2 billion RMB respectively, with net profits of 38.2 billion, 52.5 billion, and 67.7 billion RMB [7] Financial Summary - The latest closing price of the stock is 48.64 RMB, with a total market capitalization of 1,128 billion RMB [4] - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 27.4% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 31.18 [4] - Projected revenue growth rates are 9.59% for 2024, 9.42% for 2025, 17.56% for 2026, and 19.52% for 2027 [9][10] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.65 RMB, 2.26 RMB, and 2.92 RMB respectively [9][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [5][13]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing sustained demand driven by local production needs, with a high capacity utilization rate of 95.8% as of Q3 2025. Revenue from the Chinese market has increased by 11% quarter-on-quarter, reflecting a shift in the supply chain and growing domestic demand [3][4]. - The company anticipates stable capital expenditures for the year, with a projected monthly capacity expansion of 50,000 12-inch wafers. Total capital expenditures for the year are expected to be around $7.5 billion, with 80% allocated for equipment purchases [4]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 671 billion, 783 billion, and 901 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 50.58 billion, 62.59 billion, and 75.34 billion yuan [5][7]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 57.8 billion yuan in 2024, growing to 67.1 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 27.72% in 2024 and 16.06% in 2025 [7][12]. - The projected EBITDA for 2025 is approximately 42.1 billion yuan, with a net profit margin expected to improve from 6.4% in 2024 to 7.5% in 2025 [7][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.46 yuan in 2024 to 0.63 yuan in 2025, reflecting the company's growth trajectory [7][12]. Relative Valuation - The company is positioned as a leading integrated circuit foundry in China, with a competitive edge in manufacturing capabilities and service offerings. It aims to enhance its business synergy through strategic acquisitions and maintain a high capacity utilization rate [10][11]. - The report compares the company's price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 5.98 with TSMC's P/B of 9.09, indicating a favorable valuation relative to its peers [11]. Market Position - The company is recognized as a benchmark in the domestic foundry industry, particularly in advanced process technology, which is crucial given the current high demand for high-end chips in the market [11]. - The anticipated growth in artificial intelligence and local production demands is expected to further solidify the company's market position and competitive advantages [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [6][13]. Core Insights - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with a 15.66% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, reaching 1.9 billion yuan. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 35.45% to -67 million yuan [3][4]. - The company's glass processing and display device businesses are developing steadily, benefiting from industry trends towards lightweight, high-definition, and large-size products. A significant technological breakthrough in glass-based ECI technology is expected to enhance profitability and solidify the company's leading position in the glass processing sector [4][5]. - The company is advancing its glass-based TGV technology and GCP technology, which are being extended to various fields, including Micro LED direct display and advanced packaging for high-performance chips. This diversification is expected to accelerate commercialization and enhance market competitiveness [5]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are 2.65 billion yuan in 2025, 3.33 billion yuan in 2026, and 5 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of -110 million yuan, 141.78 million yuan, and 498.55 million yuan respectively. The company anticipates significant growth in net profit starting in 2026 [6][9][12]. - The report highlights a projected revenue growth rate of 19.4% in 2025, 25.6% in 2026, and 50.4% in 2027, indicating a strong upward trend in financial performance [9][12]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 32.40 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 7.3 billion yuan. The company has a total share capital of 225 million shares, all of which are circulating [2]. - The company's largest shareholder is Yi Weihua, and it has a debt-to-asset ratio of 67.7% [2]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a performance trend with a notable increase of 57% from December 2024 to December 2025, reflecting positive market sentiment towards the company's growth prospects [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that China's economy continues to develop steadily, characterized by "demand decline and stable production" as of November [2] - Retail sales growth has shown a declining trend, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.3% in November, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous value, marking six consecutive months of marginal slowdown [8] - Service consumption remains robust, while smart economy consumption, such as smart wearables and digital consumption, exhibits high growth potential [2][8] Group 2 - Fixed asset investment has seen a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.6% from January to November, with the real estate market undergoing deep adjustments and construction investment growth in negative territory [15] - The average price of commercial housing in November was 9096.64 yuan per square meter, a year-on-year decrease of 9.94%, indicating a bottoming process in housing prices [16] - Industrial value-added growth remained relatively stable at 4.8% year-on-year in November, with mining and high-tech industries showing significant growth [28]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][35] Core Viewpoints - The agricultural sector experienced a slight decline, with the agricultural index down by 0.08%, ranking 10th among 31 primary industries [4][12] - The pig price is fluctuating at a low level, with expectations of continued capacity reduction due to oversupply [5][15] - The white feather chicken market shows stable chick prices and a slight increase in meat chicken prices, supported by holiday stocking [6][28] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural sector saw a minor decline, with the agricultural index down 0.08% [12] - The animal health and pig farming sectors led the gains due to ongoing low pig prices [13] 2. Livestock Industry Chain Tracking 2.1 Pigs - Pig prices are fluctuating around 11 CNY/kg, showing a trend of bottoming out [5][15] - Supply exceeds demand, with expectations of continued increases in pig output due to prior increases in piglet supply [15][18] - The industry is currently experiencing overall losses, with expectations that pig prices have not yet reached their lowest point [18] 2.2 White Feather Chicken - As of December 12, chick prices are stable at 3.7 CNY/chick, with an average profit of approximately 0.8 CNY per chick [6][28] - Meat chicken prices have increased by 1.39% to 3.65 CNY/jin, supported by holiday demand [6][28] 3. Planting Industry Chain Tracking - Sugar prices continue to decline, with an average price of 5393 CNY/ton as of December 12, down 56 CNY from the previous week [30] - Soybean prices have decreased, with Brazilian soybeans at 3762 CNY/ton and U.S. soybeans at 4329 CNY/ton, both down 2.1% [30] - Corn prices are rising, with an average price of 2299 CNY/ton, up 19 CNY from the previous week [30]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a 43.43% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, reaching 553 million yuan. The gross profit margin improved from -21.6% to 6.8%, indicating a positive shift due to product structure optimization and economies of scale [4][5]. - The company is rapidly expanding its high-end business, achieving significant breakthroughs in key areas such as data centers, electric vehicles, and humanoid robots. Its GaN products are now in mass production for various applications, including AI and data centers, and have established partnerships with leading robotics companies [5][6]. - The company is collaborating with NVIDIA to support the implementation of an 800 VDC power architecture, which is expected to enhance efficiency and power density in AI data centers, while also reducing energy consumption and CO2 emissions [6]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 1.386 billion yuan in 2025, 2.453 billion yuan in 2026, and 3.866 billion yuan in 2027, with expected net profits of -800 million yuan, -328 million yuan, and 499 million yuan respectively [7][10]. - The company anticipates a significant increase in gross profit margin, reaching 45.37% by 2027, alongside a notable improvement in net profit margin, projected to be 12.91% in the same year [11].

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the rapid growth of revenue driven by domestic GPU chip development, with a significant year-on-year increase of 453.5% in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, reaching 1.236 billion [5] - The company has a strong order backlog of 1.43 billion, with expectations for small batch orders from internet companies in Q4 2025 [7] - The company is actively expanding its strategic inventory, with inventory levels increasing by 89.48% year-on-year to 1.472 billion by the end of Q3 2025 [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Basic Situation - The closing index level is 5010.88, with a 52-week high of 5841.52 and a low of 3963.29 [1] Recent Developments - The company, Muxi Co., is set to be listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange on December 17, 2025, aiming to raise 3.904 billion for various GPU development projects [5] Financial Performance - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 is reported at 55.76%, an increase of 2.92 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the same period shows a significant reduction in losses, amounting to -346 million [5] Product Competitiveness - Muxi's GPU products are noted for their full-stack autonomous control capabilities, with performance gaps to leading competitors like NVIDIA significantly narrowing [6] Order and Supply Chain Management - The company has secured a substantial order backlog and is focusing on strategic partnerships with key clients in the internet and telecommunications sectors [8] - Strategic inventory management has been emphasized, with a notable increase in stock levels to ensure stable supply [9] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring several related companies within the GPU and AI sectors, including Muxi Co., Yidu International Holdings, and others [10]

Industry Investment Rating - Neutral | Initial Rating [2] Core Insights - Brokerage business revenue is showing elasticity, with high trading volumes in stock funds directly boosting commission income, particularly benefiting brokers with a higher proportion of retail clients such as Dongfang Caifu, Huatai, and Guotai Junan [5] - Margin financing business is expected to restart expansion, with market activity and stabilized indices boosting financing demand; the current CSI 300 index has stabilized above 4,500 points, enhancing collateral value [5] - The current sector PE has not risen rapidly, indicating that funds are entering the market in a "trading" rather than "chasing high" manner, which is favorable for market sustainability and reduces the risk of brokers chasing high prices [5] - The fundamentals of the brokerage sector are stable and improving, with brokerage stocks exhibiting high beta characteristics; it is recommended to actively position in comprehensive leading brokers in the short term [5] Industry Fundamentals Tracking - SHIBOR 3M rate remained stable at 1.58%, reflecting a continued loose liquidity environment in the interbank market, consistent with the central bank's policy to smooth funding through open market operations [6][14] - The margin financing balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is 25,014.04 billion, showing a slight decrease of 0.26% but remaining stable overall; this balance accounts for 2.54% of the A-share circulating market value, indicating neutral participation of leveraged funds [18] - Recent bond market indices have shown a fluctuating upward trend, with the China Bond New Comprehensive Index rising from 247.92 in early October to 248.83 by December 12, reflecting a liquidity-rich environment [19] - As of December 12, daily bond trading in the Shenzhen market reached 3,212.8 billion, while the Shanghai market reached 25.17 trillion, with repos dominating trading volume [19] Market Review - Last week, the A-share Shenwan Securities II industry index rose by 0.31%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 0.08%, with a relative outperformance of 0.39 percentage points [25] - In terms of industry ranking, the A-share Securities II ranked 8th among 31 Shenwan first-level industries, underperforming the non-bank financial sector [26] - The Hong Kong securities and brokerage sector rose by 2.254%, exceeding the overall financial sector's growth [26]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The recent Politburo meeting emphasizes the importance of domestic demand, marking a shift towards a long-term strategy for high-quality development and countering external uncertainties. The focus is on "supply-demand coordinated reform" to create new demand through "new quality productivity" and to unleash consumption potential through a "unified market" and "livelihood guarantees" [5][15]. - Moutai's pricing strategy is being closely monitored, with recent adjustments indicating a short-term control of supply and a mid-term structural adjustment. The price of Moutai has recently increased by 100 yuan to 1600 yuan, reflecting market pressures and strategic responses [6][17]. - The "Three Squirrels" brand is transitioning from a snack brand to a community hard discount retail model, demonstrating strong competitiveness in areas with limited hard discount presence. The store emphasizes fresh and made-to-order products, with a strict discounting strategy to manage inventory effectively [7][19][20]. Industry Performance - The food and beverage sector index (801120.SL) experienced a decline of 1.63% this week, ranking 22nd among 30 primary industries, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.55 percentage points. The current dynamic PE ratio for the industry is 21.53 [8][28]. - All ten sub-sectors within the food and beverage industry reported declines, with the lowest drop in the dairy sector at -1.05%. Notably, 16 stocks in the sector saw gains, with the top performers being Yanjinpuzi (+5.11%) and Kuaijishan (+4.85%) [29][30].