Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue growth of 14.96% year-on-year for H1 2025, reaching 44.78 billion yuan, with a net profit increase of 46% to 5.216 billion yuan [5][6] - The company's non-recurring net profit saw a remarkable growth of 73.06%, indicating strong operational performance [5][6] - The company has established a robust overseas market presence, generating 26.302 billion yuan in overseas sales, a year-on-year increase of 11.72% [7] - The company is undergoing a digital transformation with 33 "lighthouse factories" established, enhancing production efficiency [7] Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the gross profit margin increased by 0.74 percentage points to 27.44%, while the expense ratio decreased significantly by 4.85 percentage points to 12.33% [7] - The company plans to distribute a mid-term dividend of 3.10 yuan per 10 shares, reflecting its strong cash flow and commitment to shareholder returns [8] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 87.903 billion, 100.022 billion, and 113.430 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 8.856 billion, 10.850 billion, and 13.254 billion yuan [9][11] Product Performance - The company experienced steady growth across various product lines, with notable increases in excavators (17.89%) and road machinery (36.83%), despite a decline in concrete machinery (-6.49%) [6]

Group 1 - The report indicates that buying stocks with "earnings exceeding expectations" during the mid-year reporting season does not yield sustained relative returns, as the market quickly digests the positive impact, unlike the first quarter reports which provide ongoing excess returns [3][12][20] - The mid-year reporting season exhibits severe growth illusion, making it difficult to construct effective stock selection strategies based on the relationship between earnings growth and the extent of exceeding expectations [4][31][36] - The "dilemma reversal" strategy is highlighted as a more effective approach for performance discovery during the mid-year reporting season, where stocks with downward earnings expectations in the first quarter but upward adjustments in the mid-year show significant advantages in relative returns [4][37][43] Group 2 - As of September 3, 2025, the proportion of stocks exceeding earnings expectations is 21.78%, lower than the historical average of 25.48%, but shows a significant recovery from the 15.53% low in 2024, indicating a positive shift in earnings expectations [5][54] - The report notes that only the non-bank financial, banking, and non-ferrous metal sectors have a higher proportion of upward earnings adjustments compared to downward adjustments, suggesting a lack of mainline opportunities for performance verification across industries [5][56] - The overall performance of the A-share market remains in a bottom-seeking phase, with the net profit growth rate for the Wind All A Index declining from 3.46% in the first quarter to 1.31% in the second quarter of 2025, indicating ongoing struggles in revenue and profit growth [53][54]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 10 months [14]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.361 billion yuan in H1 2025, a decrease of 10% year-on-year, with a net profit of 280 million yuan, also down by 10% [4][5]. - The company plans to enhance its material business layout through asset acquisitions, including the purchase of intellectual property rights for high-temperature alloy materials and equipment for titanium alloy production [7][8]. - The company aims for steady growth in 2025, projecting revenues between 2.99 billion and 3.22 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 2% to 10% [8]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 31.30%, an increase of 1.86 percentage points year-on-year, with significant improvements in the gross margin of basic materials and processing services [6]. - The company expects net profits for 2025 to be between 590 million and 640 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 2% to 10% [8]. - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 638 million, 739 million, and 867 million yuan, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 40, 34, and 29 times, respectively [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase in stock price compared to the benchmark index [9][10]. Core Insights - In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 432 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 60%, driven by increased market demand and customer orders [5][6]. - The gross profit margin decreased to 21.86%, down 14.67 percentage points year-on-year, due to pricing adjustments from main aircraft manufacturers and lower margins on new projects [7]. - R&D investment grew by 57% to 27.55 million yuan, with successful validation of self-developed materials, indicating a strong focus on innovation [8]. - The company has sufficient production capacity and is expanding into multiple markets, including civil aviation and aerospace, enhancing its growth potential [8]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be 126 million yuan, 159 million yuan, and 201 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 35, 28, and 22 [10][12]. - Revenue projections for 2024-2027 are 627 million yuan, 861 million yuan, 1.064 billion yuan, and 1.318 billion yuan, with growth rates of 35.41%, 37.33%, 23.62%, and 23.85% [12][15]. - The company’s asset-liability ratio is projected to increase from 20.6% in 2024 to 29.9% in 2027, indicating a potential rise in financial leverage [15].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model Name: Jet-Nemotron - **Model Construction Idea**: The model is built using an innovative post-neural architecture search method, focusing on optimizing pre-trained Transformer models[15][16] - **Model Construction Process**: - Start with a pre-trained full-attention model and inherit its multi-layer perceptron weights - Use PostNAS method to determine the optimal placement of full-attention layers by training a "one-time" super network - Evaluate various linear attention modules and select Gated DeltaNet as the base, then design the JetBlock module with dynamic causal convolution kernels - Perform hardware-aware architecture search to ensure efficiency in real hardware deployment[16][17][19] - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates significant performance and efficiency improvements, setting a new benchmark for linear attention design[20][22] Model Backtest Results Jet-Nemotron - **MMLU Accuracy**: 49.6[19] - **Common Sense Reasoning Accuracy**: 62.0[19] - **Throughput Improvement**: 47 times compared to Qwen3-1.7B-Base[19] - **Cache Size Reduction**: Reduced to one forty-seventh of the original size[19] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor Name: RLCF (Reinforcement Learning from Checklist Feedback) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Use dynamically generated checklists to evaluate model responses, providing a more effective alignment method compared to traditional reward models[48][49] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Define checklist core features: each item must be a verifiable yes/no question - Generate checklists using direct and candidate methods - Sample candidate response pairs from the base policy - Score each checklist item using AI judges and verification programs - Calculate weighted average scores and filter significantly different response pairs - Train using direct preference optimization[49][51][52] - **Factor Evaluation**: The method shows stable improvement in instruction adherence across various benchmarks, particularly excelling in handling "content" constraints[51][52] Factor Backtest Results RLCF - **IFEval Improvement**: 2.8-3.0%[51] - **FollowBench Constraint Satisfaction Level**: 8.2% improvement[51] - **InFoBench Overall Requirement Adherence Rate**: 6.9% improvement[51] - **Content Constraint Hard Satisfaction Rate**: 6.4 percentage points higher than baseline[51]

⚫ 9 月，信用的机会在哪里？ 证券研究报告：固定收益报告 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 分析师:李书开 SAC 登记编号:S1340524040001 Email:lishukai@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《短久期中低评级城投债流动性上升 ——流动性打分周报 20250902》 - 2025.09.02 信用周度观点 9 月，信用的机会在哪里？ ——信用周报 20250903 8 月信用债行情以调整为主，跌幅整体大于利率，出现久期和品 种流动性的分化。8 月信用债行情可以大致分为两个阶段，七月底到 八月初急跌后信用债开始修复，叠加增值税新规利好普通信用债，市 场情绪较高。但从 8 月第二周开始由于股债跷跷板效应的持续影响， 权益市场几度走强，信用债持续调整，调整到上周信用债中短久期稍 有企稳，但长久期的收益率调整依然持续。8 月超长期限信用债行情 表现最弱，跌幅多数超过同期限利率债，其中流动性较好的二永超长 债跌幅最低，而流动性最差的超长城投债跌幅较大。 从曲线形态来看，全等级 1-2 年、2- ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid development of large models and the acceleration of multimodal applications, with closed-source models gradually regaining an advantage over open-source ones [2][4] Summary by Sections Large Models - The development of multimodal technology is still evolving, with both domestic and international major players continuously refreshing state-of-the-art (SOAT) benchmarks [4][11] - Closed-source models are beginning to maintain performance advantages after the open-source wave, with significant advancements in video and image generation capabilities [4][19] Computing Power - Capital expenditures (Capex) from major cloud service providers (CSPs) are increasing, with chip manufacturers accelerating the release of new versions of chips [29][32] - Major CSPs like Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon have raised their Capex guidance, indicating a strong focus on AI infrastructure [32][35] Applications - There is a noticeable acceleration in application differentiation overseas, particularly in complex B2B scenarios that integrate with data [47][64] - Companies that effectively leverage AI to enhance their core business operations are seeing significant revenue growth, particularly in the B2B sector [47][56]

证券研究报告：电子 | 公司点评报告 股票投资评级 买入 |维持 | 最新收盘价（元） | 52.30 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）1.42 | / 0.89 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）74 | / 46 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 61.62 / 23.37 | | 资产负债率(%) | 22.2% | | 市盈率 | 75.80 | | 第一大股东 | 国家集成电路产业投资 | | | 基金股份有限公司 | 研究所 分析师:吴文吉 SAC 登记编号:S1340523050004 Email:wuwenji@cnpsec.com 分析师:翟一梦 SAC 登记编号:S1340525040003 Email:zhaiyimeng@cnpsec.com 个股表现 2024-09 2024-11 2025-01 2025-04 2025-06 2025-08 -6% 10% 26% 42% 58% 74% 90% 106% 122% 138% 德邦科技 电子 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 德邦科技(688035) 集成电路封装材料高增 l 事件 公司发布 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within six months [2][14]. Core Insights - The company reported a robust performance in H1 2025, achieving revenue of 18.181 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.21%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.230 billion yuan, up 25.05% [4][5]. - The growth was primarily driven by the earth-moving machinery segment, with both domestic and overseas sales outpacing industry averages. Notably, the loader segment saw revenue growth exceeding 20%, and electric loader global sales surged by 193% [5][6]. - The company is entering a deep internationalization phase, establishing multiple overseas manufacturing bases and R&D institutions, enhancing local supply chains and production capabilities [6]. Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2025, the company reported a gross margin of 22.32%, a decrease of 1.08 percentage points year-on-year. Domestic gross margin decreased by 0.65 percentage points to 15.82%, while overseas gross margin increased by 1.49 percentage points to 29.69% [5]. - The company forecasts revenues of 34.233 billion yuan, 37.820 billion yuan, and 41.361 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.87%, 10.48%, and 9.36% [7][10]. - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period is 1.719 billion yuan, 2.093 billion yuan, and 2.518 billion yuan, with growth rates of 29.57%, 21.74%, and 20.31% [7][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [9]. Core Views - The company has shown robust growth in its revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 12.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.4%, and a net profit of 140 million yuan, up 210.6% year-on-year [3]. - The company is focusing on a dual strategy of "Electricity + Computing Power + AI," aiming to strengthen its position in the power supply sector while expanding into AI and robotics [3]. - The smart cable network business has seen significant growth, with revenue of 11.49 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11.6%, and a net profit of 270 million yuan, up 75.8% year-on-year [5]. - The smart battery segment is expected to further reduce losses, with revenue of 690 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 40.1%, and a net loss of 190 million yuan, a reduction of 153 million yuan in losses compared to the previous year [6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The latest closing price is 6.69 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 14.8 billion yuan and a total share capital of 2.219 billion shares [2]. Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 8.1 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 66.2%, and a net profit of 100 million yuan, up 112.4% quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The company's gross margin and net margin for the first half of 2025 were 9.4% and 1.1%, respectively, with a decrease in sales expense ratio but a decline in management, financial, and R&D expense ratios [4]. Business Segments - The smart cable network business is expected to enhance profitability with new high-voltage cable projects and significant orders in the nuclear cable sector [5]. - The smart battery business is actively expanding overseas and is expected to benefit from the ongoing reforms in the energy sector [6]. - The smart airport business has also shown substantial growth, with revenue of 750 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 37.5% [8]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 29.74 billion yuan, 33.90 billion yuan, and 38.36 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 530 million yuan, 830 million yuan, and 1.22 billion yuan [9].