证券研究报告：计算机 | 公司点评报告 发布时间：2025-10-30 股票投资评级 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 337.21 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）4.63 | / 4.63 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）1,562 | / 1,562 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 398.08 / 248.16 | | 资产负债率(%) | 28.1% | | 市盈率 | 94.72 | | 第一大股东 | Kingsoft WPS | | Corporation | Limited | 研究所 分析师:孙业亮 SAC 登记编号:S1340522110002 Email:sunyeliang@cnpsec.com 分析师:常雨婷 SAC 登记编号:S1340523080001 Email:changyuting@cnpsec.com 金山办公(688111) 市场有风险，投资需谨慎 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 买入 |首次覆盖 个股表现 2024-10 2025-01 2025-03 2025-06 2025-08 2025- ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The "15th Five-Year Plan" Proposal reaffirms "taking economic development as the center" and aims to empower the real economy with technology and lead the construction of a modern industrial system [2][5][11] - Keywords such as "innovation", "technology", "consumption", and "investment" become prominent, reflecting the focus on technological innovation, domestic demand expansion, and investment efficiency [3][5][13] - The total target is to improve total factor productivity and keep economic growth within a reasonable range, implying an expected annual average economic growth rate of 3.7% - 5.4% in the next 10 years [4][5][18] - The industrial structure should maintain a reasonable proportion of the manufacturing industry and significantly increase the household consumption rate, which will be important guidelines for economic structure adjustment [5][22][24] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1.1 General Overview: Taking Economic Development as the Center and Modern Industrial System as the Core Task - The "15th Five-Year Plan" Proposal reaffirms the principle of "taking economic development as the center", with the external environment becoming more complex and domestic challenges remaining in new and old kinetic energy conversion and effective demand [11] - It emphasizes seizing the opportunities of the new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation, and proposes specific goals for industrial development, such as optimizing traditional industries and cultivating emerging and future industries [11] 1.2 Word Frequency: Innovation, Technology, Consumption, and Investment Become Keywords - "Innovation" and "technology" appear 61 and 46 times respectively, with more refined key core technology research goals and an emphasis on technological transformation [13] - The frequency of "consumption" - related words rises to 23, and specific measures are proposed to boost consumption, indicating more consumption - promoting policies in the future [14] - The frequency of "investment" - related words reaches 29, suggesting that government investment may be more inclined to high - efficiency areas and the optimization of investment structure [15] - The frequency of "trade" - related words increases to 22, emphasizing the expansion of independent opening - up and the promotion of RMB internationalization [15] 1.3 Total Target: Improving "Total Factor Productivity" and Keeping Economic Growth within a Reasonable Range - The "15th Five - Year Plan" and the 2035 target imply an expected annual average economic growth rate of 3.7% - 5.4% in the next 10 years, providing a basis for judging the annual economic growth target [18] - The Proposal aims to steadily increase total factor productivity. Considering the structural constraints of the Chinese economy in the next decade, achieving high - quality growth requires continuous improvement of total factor productivity and release of institutional dividends [20] 1.4 Industrial Structure: Maintaining a Reasonable Proportion of the Manufacturing Industry and Significantly Increasing the Household Consumption Rate - The goal of maintaining a reasonable proportion of the manufacturing industry implies the need to upgrade traditional manufacturing and adhere to the real economy. The high - tech industry has become a strong growth driver [22] - The new goal of significantly increasing the household consumption rate is proposed. China's current household consumption rate has great room for improvement, and measures such as promoting employment and increasing income are proposed to boost consumption [24]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The semiconductor market is gradually recovering, leading to an expansion in revenue. In the first three quarters, the company achieved operating revenue of 5.348 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.89%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 974 million yuan, up 45.51% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, the operating revenue was 1.893 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.47% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.91%, with a net profit of 372 million yuan, up 52.40% year-on-year and 13.36% quarter-on-quarter [5] - Emerging demands from AI, automotive electronics, and other sectors are expected to provide diversified growth opportunities. The company is benefiting from new demand in AI servers, automotive electronics, and industrial/service robots, which will contribute to growth in power semiconductors. Traditional power devices, MOS, and small signal businesses are expected to grow steadily, while SiC business will continue to see rapid growth. The domestic market is recovering steadily, and overseas business is expanding, with an anticipated increase in overseas revenue share [5] - The company's gross margin is steadily improving due to an increase in overseas business and product structure adjustments. The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 35.04%, an increase of 4.02 percentage points year-on-year. In Q3 2025, the gross margin was 37.32%, up 3.73 percentage points year-on-year and 4.22 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [6] Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 7.289 billion yuan, 8.501 billion yuan, and 10.031 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits attributable to the parent company of 1.269 billion yuan, 1.520 billion yuan, and 1.803 billion yuan for the same years. The rating remains "Buy" [7] - The financial metrics for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E include operating revenue of 6.033 billion yuan, 7.289 billion yuan, 8.501 billion yuan, and 10.031 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 11.53%, 20.80%, 16.63%, and 18.00% [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2]. Core Insights - The company is a leading integrated marketing service provider in China, transitioning towards a diversified technology group with a focus on AI, computing power chips, and sports lottery [3][5]. - The advertising marketing business is expected to benefit from a recovery in demand, with the overall advertising market projected to grow by 10% in 2024 [3][35]. - The company has established strategic partnerships in the computing power sector, enhancing its capabilities in AI and data-driven marketing [3][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has over 20 years of experience in the advertising marketing field and has expanded its services from campus media to a wide range of industries [3][8]. - It has built a national marketing service network covering major cities in China and is actively diversifying into AI, computing power, and sports lottery sectors [3][8]. 2. Advertising Marketing Business - The advertising market in China is expected to reach approximately 1.82 trillion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 10% [3][35]. - The company has a resilient business model supported by its "product + channel + customer group" strategy, positioning it to benefit from the recovery in the advertising sector [3][29]. 3. Computing Power Services - The company has formed strategic partnerships with leading chip distributors, integrating computing power, data, and marketing services [3][5]. - The demand for intelligent computing power is projected to grow significantly, with the market expected to reach 2,781.9 EFLOPS by 2028 [3]. 4. Sports Lottery Business - The sports lottery sector is anticipated to grow, driven by increased participation in sports and major events like the World Cup [5]. - The company has established over 30 lottery image stores and signed nearly 1,000 cinema partnerships, positioning itself well in this emerging market [5]. 5. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to generate revenues of 3.69 billion yuan in 2025, with a slight adjustment in profit forecasts due to current advertising demand challenges [4][5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 1.68 yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18 times [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within six months [2][13]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 6.319 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 2.25%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 30.44% to 629 million yuan [4][5]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.684 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.03%, and a net profit of 361 million yuan, up 51.67% year-on-year [4][5]. - The significant difference between net profit and non-recurring net profit is attributed to a fair value gain of 273 million yuan from the listing of a subsidiary, while the decline in non-recurring net profit is due to impairment losses [4][5]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s Q3 gross margin was 16.70%, a slight decrease of 0.37 percentage points year-on-year, indicating stable overall performance [5]. - The net profit margin for Q3 was 3.54%, down 3.98 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a 100 million yuan goodwill impairment [5]. - Operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 473 million yuan, an increase of 53 million yuan year-on-year [5]. Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025 and 2026 are 9.71 billion yuan and 10.26 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 5.7% and 5.6% [6]. - Expected net profits for 2025 and 2026 are 860 million yuan and 800 million yuan, with growth rates of 46.2% and a decline of 6.7% respectively [6]. - The projected price-to-earnings ratios for 2025 and 2026 are 12.0X and 12.9X [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1] Core Insights - The company has achieved a historical high in quarterly revenue, driven by strong AI technology advancements, with a revenue of 722 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 54.74% [4][5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the same period reached 152 million yuan, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 113.85% [4][5] - The company is focusing on continuous iteration of chip products and enhancing in-memory computing technology, with R&D investment of 193 million yuan in the first three quarters, up 21.18% year-on-year [6] Financial Performance - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 59.02 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 10.3 billion yuan [3] - The company forecasts revenues of 990 million yuan, 1.32 billion yuan, and 1.76 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 210 million yuan, 300 million yuan, and 400 million yuan for the same years [7][9] - The company’s EBITDA is expected to grow significantly, reaching 432.88 million yuan by 2027 [9] Growth Projections - The company anticipates a revenue growth rate of 51.59% in 2025, followed by 33.50% in 2026 and 33.06% in 2027 [9][11] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from 0.61 yuan in 2024 to 2.26 yuan in 2027 [9][11]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the stock, indicating an expected relative increase of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within six months [2][13]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 20.601 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 5.06%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 810 million yuan, down 36.61% year-on-year [5][6]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 7.032 billion yuan, marking an 8.51% year-on-year growth, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 245 million yuan, down 26.58% year-on-year [5][6]. - The company is experiencing a turning point in operations, with revenue growth despite industry pressures, attributed to competitive advantages and overseas expansion [6]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s gross margin for Q3 was 24.80%, a decrease of 4.12 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to intense competition in a weak demand environment [6]. - The operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 416 million yuan, an increase of 909 million yuan year-on-year, indicating improved cash flow management [6]. - The company expects revenues for 2025 and 2026 to be 26.566 billion yuan and 27.179 billion yuan, respectively, with a projected net profit of 1.067 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 886.6% [7][9]. Financial Forecasts - The report forecasts a net profit of 1.689 billion yuan for 2026, with a year-on-year growth of 58.3% [7][9]. - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025 and 2026 are 29X and 19X, respectively [7]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.05 yuan in 2024 to 0.71 yuan in 2026 [9][12]. Key Financial Ratios - The asset-liability ratio is reported at 43.4%, indicating a moderate level of financial leverage [4][12]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve significantly, reaching 16.1% by 2027 [12]. - The report highlights a gradual improvement in operational efficiency, with an expected increase in total asset turnover from 0.59 in 2024 to 0.74 in 2027 [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [9][16]. Core Insights - The company reported a slight decline in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue of 3.024 billion yuan, down 1.14% year-on-year. However, net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 1.13% to 666 million yuan [5][6]. - The automotive technology service segment showed a stable revenue growth of 5.62% year-on-year, while the equipment manufacturing segment experienced a significant decline of 39.70% [6]. - The company is positioned well for long-term growth due to the upcoming release of intelligent connected vehicle standards, which are expected to accelerate new model iterations and expand testing opportunities [8]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.114 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.33%. The overall gross margin improved to 47.5%, up 2.19 percentage points year-on-year [7]. - The projected revenue for 2025-2027 is estimated at 5.006 billion yuan, 5.588 billion yuan, and 6.485 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to reach 1.029 billion yuan, 1.205 billion yuan, and 1.434 billion yuan [9][12]. - The company’s PE ratios for the next three years are projected to be 17.1, 14.6, and 12.3 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation trend [9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [5][11]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 26.98 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 12.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 450 million yuan, down 15.1% year-on-year. The decline in performance was primarily due to lower coal prices and reduced sales volume [3][5]. - The company is actively expanding its renewable energy business, participating in various industry standards and projects, including a 200MW/400MWh shared energy storage project in Yunnan [4][5]. - The earnings forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downward due to low coal prices, with projected revenues of 40.55 billion yuan, 41.78 billion yuan, and 43.20 billion yuan respectively, and net profits of 720 million yuan, 790 million yuan, and 850 million yuan [5][7]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The latest closing price is 14.29 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 8 billion yuan. The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 44.0% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.83 [2]. Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 8.56 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 22.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.0%. The net profit for the same period was 150 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 13.3% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.7% [3][5]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin and net margin for the first three quarters of 2025 were 5.0% and 2.1%, respectively, showing slight improvements year-on-year. However, the overall expense ratio increased by 0.2 percentage points, which slightly impacted profitability [3]. Future Projections - The company’s revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised downwards due to the impact of low coal prices. The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 1.29 yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.05 [5][7].

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need for high-quality development amidst increasing external challenges and uncertainties, including geopolitical conflicts and economic protectionism[3] - The plan sets a qualitative goal for economic growth to remain within a reasonable range, with significant achievements in high-quality development[3] - Despite external pressures, China's economic foundation remains solid, with strong resilience and potential for long-term growth[9] Group 2: Policy Directions - The plan outlines 12 key tasks focusing on optimizing supply, expanding demand, ensuring safety, and balancing fairness[3] - A more proactive macroeconomic policy is highlighted, with an emphasis on developing diverse financial instruments and strengthening financial regulation[20] - The plan aims to enhance the initial income distribution mechanism, promoting a market-driven approach to compensation based on contribution[24] Group 3: Investment and Consumption - The inbound tourism market is recovering, with 15.89 million foreign visitors from January to August 2025, a 52.1% increase year-on-year, indicating a potential boost in consumer spending[17] - Infrastructure investment is expected to rise due to industrial transfers and population movements, particularly in western and northeastern regions[18] - The plan stresses the importance of consumer spending, with initiatives to cultivate international consumption centers and expand inbound consumption[17]