Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The report indicates that new home sales in China have weakened, with a total sales area of 516 million square meters from January to July, representing a year-on-year decline of 4.0%. The sales value reached 4.96 trillion yuan, down 6.5% year-on-year. The decline in sales has narrowed compared to the same period last year, suggesting the real estate market is stabilizing [5][6] - Real estate development investment from January to July was 535.8 billion yuan, down 12.0% year-on-year, with expectations for policy support to accelerate land acquisition [5] - The report highlights that the average transaction area for new homes in 30 major cities was 123.11 million square meters last week, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 4.4% [6][14] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Fundamentals Tracking - New home sales and inventory: The cumulative new home sales area in 30 major cities was 5622.43 million square meters, down 4.4% year-on-year. The average transaction area for new homes in the last four weeks was 140.23 million square meters, down 14.5% year-on-year [6][14] - Second-hand home transactions: The cumulative area of second-hand home transactions in 20 cities was 7180.37 million square meters, up 15.7% year-on-year. The average transaction area in the last four weeks was 196.72 million square meters, down 0.1% year-on-year [19][21] - Land market transactions: In the last week, 69 residential land plots were newly supplied in 100 major cities, with 17 plots sold. The average floor price for residential land was 7627.25 yuan per square meter, with a premium rate of 10.72% [29][32] 2. Market Review - The A-share real estate index rose by 3.94% last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which increased by 2.37%. The real estate index outperformed the CSI 300 by 1.56 percentage points [33][35] - Key A-share real estate stocks with significant gains included Wantong Development (+39.45%) and Quzhou Development (+33.01%) [37]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 10 months [9][15]. Core Insights - The company plans to acquire a 49% stake in Nanjing Wanyou for a transaction price of 1.379 billion yuan, which is expected to enhance performance and market confidence [5][6]. - Following the recovery of minority stakes in 2024, this acquisition will further consolidate control and is projected to significantly boost earnings [6][8]. - The revenue and profit growth of the supply chain brand "Laiyoupin" under Nanjing Wanyou exceeded expectations, with 2024 revenue and profit reaching 771.2 million yuan and 24.6 million yuan, respectively, marking a year-on-year increase of 147% and a return to profitability [6][8]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 52.567 billion yuan, 63.522 billion yuan, and 72.402 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 62.6%, 20.84%, and 13.98% [9][11]. - The projected net profits for the same years are 744 million yuan, 985 million yuan, and 1.185 billion yuan, with growth rates of 153.33%, 32.43%, and 20.36% [9][11]. - If consolidation factors are considered, the net profits could reach 874 million yuan, 1.126 billion yuan, and 1.334 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating even higher growth rates [9][11]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 154.74 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 29 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 25.3 billion yuan [4]. - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 79.9% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 90.26, indicating a high level of leverage and valuation [4]. - The largest shareholder is Fujian Huanxi Grass Agricultural Development Co., Ltd. [4].

证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-08-19 研究所 分析师:李起 SAC 登记编号:S1340524110001 Email:liqi2@cnpsec.com 研究助理:高晓洁 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020001 Email:gaoxiaojie@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《宽松基调落实落细，信贷引导防范资 金空转》 - 2025.08.18 宏观观点 海外宏观周报：关税压力尚未传导至消费终端 ⚫ 核心观点： 7月美国CPI和PPI数据并未显示出关税对价格较为显著的传导。 上周二公布的 CPI 数据基本符合市场预期，市场降息热情被点燃。但 随后周四公布的 PPI 数据意外大幅升温，环比增速为 0.9%，远超市场 预测的 0.2%。其中金融服务、机票等非商品领域因素推动 PPI 数据上 行，显示 PPI 超预期或主要受服务价格推动。 此外，贸易服务价格环比跃升 2.0%，而本月 CPI 并未出现大幅波 动，显示批发商与零售商而非消费者正承受关税压力。原因在于受关 税影响较大的行业相对消费者并没有很强的定价权，难以将价格上涨 传递给消费者。 PPI 中机票、牙医等分项波动较大，未 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [1][6]. Core Views - The company reported a slight decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue at 8.839 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.24% year-on-year, and net profit at 865 million yuan, down 4.03% year-on-year [4]. - The company maintained stable sales performance despite external challenges in the beer market, benefiting from a decrease in raw material costs which slightly improved gross margin [4][6]. - The forecast for 2025-2027 indicates a gradual increase in revenue and net profit, with expected revenues of 147.33 billion yuan in 2025, 150.56 billion yuan in 2026, and 155.01 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 0.61%, 2.19%, and 2.95% respectively [6][10]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 55.31 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 26.8 billion yuan [3]. - The company has a total share capital of 484 million shares, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.05 [3]. - The largest shareholder is Carlsberg Brewery Hong Kong Limited [3]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 49.83% and a net profit margin of 9.79%, with sales expense ratio at 15.08% [4]. - The company’s sales volume for the first half of 2025 was 180.08 thousand tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.95%, while the average price per ton was 4,908 yuan, down 1.18% year-on-year [4]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 4.484 billion yuan, with a net profit of 392 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 12.70% [5]. Earnings Forecast - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 2.46 yuan, 2.61 yuan, and 2.77 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 22, 21, and 20 [6][10]. - The company is expected to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 100% in 2025, resulting in a dividend yield of 4.45% based on the current stock price [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][7]. Core Insights - The company has achieved significant revenue and profit growth, with a 40.32% year-over-year increase in revenue to 636 million yuan and a 106.02% increase in net profit to 90 million yuan in the first half of 2025 [1][2]. - The industrial market revenue saw a remarkable growth of 57% year-over-year, contributing to the overall performance [2]. - The company emphasizes research and development, investing 19.69% of its revenue in R&D, leading to the launch of several new products that have entered mass production [3]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenues of 1.25 billion yuan, 1.48 billion yuan, and 1.72 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 178 million yuan, 236 million yuan, and 286 million yuan for the same years [4][6]. - The EBITDA for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 is expected to be 199.66 million yuan, 244.86 million yuan, and 291.80 million yuan respectively [6]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve slightly, reaching 37.4% in 2025 and 37.5% in 2026 [6]. Market Position - The company is expanding its market share in key sectors such as smart home appliances, power energy, smart terminals, industrial control, and AI computing [2]. - The company has established trust with top customers in these strategic application markets, indicating a strong competitive position [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the benchmark index within the next six months [8][14]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 7.99 billion yuan in net profit for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.66% [5]. - The core yeast business continues to show robust growth, with a revenue increase of 12.38% in the yeast and deep processing segment [6]. - The overseas market has maintained a high growth rate, with a year-on-year increase of 22.6% in foreign revenue [6]. - The company has optimized its sugar business by acquiring a 55% stake in Shengtong Sugar Industry, enhancing its upstream raw material control and overall competitiveness [6]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported a gross margin of 26.09% and a net profit margin of 10.12%, both showing improvements compared to the previous year [7]. - The projected revenues for 2025 to 2027 are 170.49 billion yuan, 188.82 billion yuan, and 206.68 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 16.51 billion yuan, 19.17 billion yuan, and 22.01 billion yuan [8][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.90 yuan, 2.21 yuan, and 2.54 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [8][10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rebound in bond market volatility is more influenced by institutional behavior. If the gradually decreasing rebound highs of long - term interest rates can be verified, the "downward triangle" pattern is still a signal for trading or allocation, and the configuration window is opening [3][5][18]. - In the second half of the year, with the decrease in government bond issuance after August, the re - brewing of policy rate cuts, and the realization of fundamental pressure, there is still a possibility of opening up the downward space for interest rates. The improvement of expectations has begun, but the market still needs to return to the actual operation of the debt cycle and growth cycle [3][11]. - Monetary policy is still in the "waiting period", emphasizing the implementation of previous policies, and subsequent operations are still being brewed. The policy has no intention to actively guide the yield to rise [4][13]. - Liquidity remains stable and loose in the third quarter, and the stability of funds and short - term bonds is the moat for the current bond market [4][16]. 3. Summary by Related Content Bond Market Situation - Short - term bond market trends are still under pressure. It is important to verify the gradually decreasing rebound highs of long - term interest rates. The judgment that "the probability of long - term yield decline has not substantially decreased, and the odds have increased during the adjustment" still holds [3][5][11]. - The debt cycle is in the "clearing stage". The government is in the "leveraging up" stage, while the debt cycles of enterprises and residents still need to be cleared. The improvement of expectations is manifested in the rebound of risk appetite [3][11]. - The rebound in bond market volatility is mainly due to institutional behavior. The intraday fluctuations of active bonds have significantly increased, which is a manifestation of the stock game characteristics of trading desks. The repair of the Treasury bond term spread is obvious, indicating that the odds are increasing [5][18]. Monetary Policy - Monetary policy is in the "waiting period". The tone has changed from "implement well" to "implement in detail", emphasizing the implementation of previous policies. The subsequent aggregate - level monetary policy operations are still being brewed [4][13]. - The policy mentions "preventing capital idling" again and does not mention "Treasury bond trading". The policy's demand for yield is relatively neutral and has no intention to actively guide the yield to rise [4][13]. - The central bank's view on prices also focuses on the impact of "governing the disorderly low - price competition of enterprises" [13]. Liquidity - Liquidity in the third quarter is likely to remain stably loose. The stability of funds and short - term bonds is the moat for the bond market. The point - in - time fluctuations of the current capital market still follow the trajectory of 2022. The incremental investment of long - term liquidity through repurchase in August and the expected increase in the investment of structural monetary policy in the third quarter support the view that the capital market is loose [4][16].

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the potential benefits from the reconstruction of Ukraine, with an estimated total cost of approximately $524 billion, which is nearly three times Ukraine's GDP for 2024. Key areas of investment include housing ($84 billion), transportation ($78 billion), energy ($68 billion), industrial and commercial sectors ($64 billion), and agriculture ($55 billion) [3]. - The report emphasizes the competitive advantages of domestic international engineering companies in Ukraine's post-war reconstruction, despite the U.S. leading the efforts. Companies such as China Communications Construction Company, China Chemical Engineering, China National Materials, and China Steel International are noted as potential beneficiaries [4]. - In the cement sector, a policy to limit overproduction is expected to enhance capacity utilization, with a forecasted recovery in demand and price increases starting in August [4]. - The glass industry is facing a downward trend in demand due to real estate impacts, with supply-demand imbalances persisting. However, the report anticipates that environmental regulations will accelerate the industry's cold repair processes [4]. - The fiberglass sector is experiencing growth driven by demand from the AI industry, with expectations for a significant increase in both volume and price [5]. - The consumer building materials sector is projected to see a recovery in profitability, with price increases across various categories such as waterproofing, coatings, and gypsum boards [5]. Summary by Sections Cement - The national cement market price is stabilizing, but demand remains low due to seasonal factors, with July's production down 5.6% year-on-year to 146 million tons [9]. Glass - Glass prices continue to decline, with regional prices dropping by 1-4% per weight box. The report predicts ongoing price fluctuations due to limited demand improvement [14]. Company Announcements - Three companies reported their mid-year results: - **Sanhe Building Materials**: Revenue of 5.816 billion yuan, up 0.97% year-on-year, with net profit increasing by 107.53% [17]. - **Puyang Refractories**: Revenue of 2.79 billion yuan, up 3.6% year-on-year, but net profit down 48.3% [18]. - **Tianan New Materials**: Revenue of 1.444 billion yuan, up 3.97% year-on-year, with net profit increasing by 16.59% [17].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [2] Core Viewpoints - The white liquor sector is entering a low base period for operations, and the dividend yield advantage is becoming evident. The performance of mass-market products is showing differentiation, with a focus on the potential of new business models [4][14] - The food and beverage sector has shown signs of recovery, with expectations for improved revenue and profit performance in the second half of 2025 due to a low base effect [4][16] Summary by Sections White Liquor Sector - The implementation of the "Regulations on Strict Economy and Opposition to Waste by Party and Government Agencies" has impacted normal consumption scenarios, but recent media corrections may help restore some consumption [4][14] - The overall sales volume in the white liquor industry has declined year-on-year, with high-end brands experiencing manageable declines while mid-range brands have seen more significant drops [4][14] - The stock price declines for major brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye have been substantial, with maximum declines of -47.48% and -65.98% respectively since 2021 [5][15] - The expected dividend yields for major brands in 2025 are competitive with other sectors, indicating a potential for investment [6][17] Mass-Market Products - Companies like Angel Yeast and Weilong have shown robust performance, with Angel Yeast reporting a revenue increase of 10.1% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [18][29] - Weilong's new product lines have performed well, and the company is focusing on expanding its product categories and improving operational efficiency [18][20] - The mass-market segment is entering a reporting period, with companies like Anqi Yeast and Weilong showing positive growth trends [18][21] Industry Performance - The food and beverage sector index has shown a slight increase of +0.48% in the recent week, but it has underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index [8][21] - Year-to-date, the food and beverage sector has faced challenges, with a cumulative decline of -6.11%, indicating a lag in recovery compared to other sectors [21][22] - The highest performing sub-sectors this week included seasoning and fermentation products, with a notable increase of +2.19% [21][25]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the issuance of the "Implementation Opinions on Promoting the Innovation and Development of Brain-Machine Interface Industry" by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and six other departments, which increases certainty in the related industry [5][14] - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector has shown a 3.08% increase this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.7 percentage points, ranking 10th among 31 sub-industries [20][21] - The report indicates that the brain-machine interface technology is in a period of accelerated transformation, with domestic companies expected to gradually achieve commercialization, leading to rapid market expansion [6][17] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is 9029.09, with a 52-week high of 9029.09 and a low of 6070.89 [2] Weekly Performance - The medical research outsourcing sector had the highest increase this week at 7.77%, followed by the hospital sector at 5.59% and medical consumables at 4.47% [7][21] - The report notes a significant divergence in performance among sub-sectors, with offline pharmacies experiencing the largest decline at 1.82% [7][21] Beneficiary Stocks - Beneficiary stocks in the innovative drug sector include companies such as Innovent Biologics, Kintor Pharmaceutical, and BeiGene for H-shares, and Zai Lab, Eucure Biopharma, and others for A-shares [8] - In the medical device and consumables sector, companies like Mindray Medical, Weigao Group, and others are highlighted as beneficiaries [8] Sub-sector Analysis - The report emphasizes that the innovative drug sector is expected to continue performing well due to overseas business development expectations and supportive policy documents [26] - The medical device sector is projected to benefit from policies promoting the replacement of old equipment, with significant growth expected in the second quarter of 2025 [27][28] - The IVD sector is anticipated to see marginal improvements due to optimized procurement policies, with AI-assisted diagnostics being a promising direction [31][32] Market Trends - The report indicates that the overall trend for the medical device industry is positive, driven by innovation, mergers, and internationalization, with leading Chinese companies expected to grow into global leaders [28] - The report also notes that the traditional Chinese medicine sector is expected to see a turning point as inventory clears and procurement policies are implemented [40]