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医药生物行业报告(2025.12.08-2025.12.12):STAT6PROTAC1b期数据媲美Dupi,重视自免口服市场掘金潜力
China Post Securities· 2025-12-15 09:03
证券研究报告:医药生物|行业周报 发布时间:2025-12-15 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 8280.55 | | 52 | 周最高 | 9323.49 | | 52 | 周最低 | 6764.34 | 行业相对指数表现 -12% -9% -6% -3% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18% 21% 2024-12 2025-02 2025-05 2025-07 2025-09 2025-12 医药生物 沪深300 资料来源:聚源,中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:盛丽华 SAC 登记编号:S1340525060001 Email:shenglihua@cnpsec.com 分析师:徐智敏 SAC 登记编号:S1340525100003 Email: xuzhimin@cnpsec.com KT-621(抑或说 STAT6 PROTAC)的成药目标是成为"口服的 Dupi"。 因此对于 STAT6 PROTAC 赛道的投资核心判断在于:现有的数据有效 性和安全性是否足以支撑媲美 Dupi 的潜力。从 KT- ...
艾森股份(688720):先进制程占比提升,存储领域积极推进
China Post Securities· 2025-12-15 08:50
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1] Core Insights - The company has achieved significant advancements in semiconductor materials, particularly in electroplating solutions and photoresists, with stable mass production for 28nm and 5nm-14nm advanced processes [4][5] - The company is recognized for its high-performance materials, which have received consistent orders from leading global wafer manufacturers [4] - The company is positioned to benefit from the domestic substitution trend in the semiconductor industry, particularly in storage technologies like HBM and 3D NAND [6][7] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are estimated at 600 million yuan in 2025, 790 million yuan in 2026, and 1.034 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 50 million yuan, 79 million yuan, and 119 million yuan [8][10] - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with revenue growth rates of 39.16% in 2025 and 31.16% in 2026 [10][13] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.57 yuan in 2025 to 1.35 yuan in 2027 [10][13] Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 56.19 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 5 billion yuan [3] - The company has a low debt-to-asset ratio of 21.4% and a high price-to-earnings ratio of 147.87 [3]
江丰电子(300666):静电吸盘自研突破,靶材全球布局提速
China Post Securities· 2025-12-15 07:42
证券研究报告:电子 | 公司点评报告 个股表现 2024-12 2025-02 2025-05 2025-07 2025-09 2025-12 -16% -9% -2% 5% 12% 19% 26% 33% 40% 47% 江丰电子 电子 资料来源:聚源,中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价(元) | 89.05 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本(亿股)2.65 | / 2.21 | | 总市值/流通市值(亿元)236 | / 197 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 114.52 / 63.77 | | 资产负债率(%) | 49.0% | | 市盈率 | 58.97 | | 第一大股东 | 姚力军 | 股票投资评级 买入 |维持 研究所 分析师:吴文吉 SAC 登记编号:S1340523050004 Email:wuwenji@cnpsec.com 研究助理:陈天瑜 SAC 登记编号:S1340125090015 Email:chentianyu@cnpsec.com l 投资建议 我们预计公司 2025/2026/2027 年分别实现收入 45/57/74 亿元, 实现归母 ...
合合信息(688615):收入逐季加速,AI加速海外商业化
China Post Securities· 2025-12-15 07:25
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2]. Core Insights - The company has accelerated revenue growth in Q3 2025, achieving a total revenue of 1.303 billion yuan for the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.22%. The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 351 million yuan, up 14.55% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 460 million yuan, reflecting a 27.49% year-on-year growth [5][6]. - The company is increasing its sales and R&D efforts, with a notable 32.40% year-on-year growth in its C-end intelligent text recognition business, driven by product innovation and enhanced user experience [6]. - The B-end business also showed robust growth, with revenue from intelligent text recognition reaching 20.6 million yuan, up 19.64% year-on-year, and commercial big data revenue at 38.56 million yuan, increasing by 10.52% year-on-year [7]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2025-2027, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 1.813 billion, 2.373 billion, and 2.852 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 26.08%, 30.90%, and 20.15% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 481 million, 597 million, and 746 million yuan, with growth rates of 20.20%, 23.95%, and 24.96% respectively [8][10]. - The company’s financial metrics indicate a P/E ratio of 64.56 for 2025, decreasing to 41.68 by 2027, suggesting improving valuation over time [10][13]. User Growth and Market Expansion - As of September 30, 2025, the company reported 189 million monthly active users, a 12.50% increase year-on-year, indicating strong user engagement and growth potential [6]. - The company plans to leverage its AI capabilities to enhance overseas market penetration, which is expected to accelerate user conversion and revenue growth [8].
流动性周报:年初资金面会收紧吗?-20251215
China Post Securities· 2025-12-15 06:18
观点回顾:以机构心态视角来看,年末对收益的诉求普遍偏弱, 明年一季度理财类机构和保险机构存在抢筹的意愿。年内债市行情限 于区间震荡的局面可能不易改变,年末时点存在提前抢筹、行情升温 的契机。 证券研究报告:固定收益报告 发布时间:2025-12-15 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《债务周期"出清阶段",政策组合延 续——中央经济工作会议点评 20251212》 - 2025.12.12 固收周报 年初资金面会收紧吗? ——流动性周报 20251214 l 流动性走势决定权的筹码又在向央行集中 降准降息未至,止盈操作已至,然而这并不难理解,年末机构普 遍没有过多收益诉求。我们在报告《年末机构行为百态》中提到,"这 一心态,在一个问题上体现最为明确,即在降息出现的应对上,债市 投资者的一致预期是不期待近期可能出现降息机会,如果出现意外降 息,会选择以卖出来应对"。 在路演和交流中,我们还实实在在感受到投资者对于年初资金面 的担忧。多数投资者担忧的理由是,年初信贷投放可能会季节性偏高, 资金面的波动 ...
宏观研究:理性看待货币政策对通胀的提振作用,关注居民去杠杆
China Post Securities· 2025-12-15 06:18
证券研究报告:宏观报告 发布时间:2025-12-15 海外主权债务风险走高;样本范围;全球货币体系持续演进。 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《中共中央经济工作会议精神学习: 符合预期,整体定调更具针对性》 - 2025.12.12 宏观研究 理性看待货币政策对通胀的提振作用,关注居民去 杠杆 核心观点 11 月金融数据呈现以下特点:一是债券融资特点愈发明显,债券 融资增长对冲信贷融资需求放缓,实体经济融资需求相对平稳;二是 企业融资需求延续回升态势,或是新型政策金融工具带动;三是居民 短期信贷收缩,呈现居民去杠杆特点,或部分抵消贴息政策对消费的 提振作用;四是 M1 同比增速环比较为明显下降,应是短期居民去杠 杆的影响,M2 同比增速环比微跌,指向大量资金沉淀为定期存款,M1 与 M2 增速负剪刀差持续走扩,经济活性下降,未能有效转化为实体 投资与消费需求。 基于以上分析,我们理解,货币 ...
中央经济会议定调内需,提振消费政策值得期待
China Post Securities· 2025-12-15 04:49
发布时间:2025-12-15 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 证券研究报告:建筑材料|行业周报 | 行业基本情况 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | 5178.51 | | 52 周最高 | 5417.39 | | 52 周最低 | 4167.51 | 行业相对指数表现 -10% -7% -4% -1% 2% 5% 8% 11% 14% 17% 20% 2024-12 2025-02 2025-05 2025-07 2025-09 2025-12 建筑材料 沪深300 资料来源:聚源,中邮证券研究所 研究所 建材行业报告 (2025.12.08-2025.12.14) 中央经济会议定调内需,提振消费政策值得期待 分析师:赵洋 SAC 登记编号:S1340524050002 Email:zhaoyang@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《需求逐步进入淡季,期待地产及化债 政策落地》 - 2025.12.08 投资要点 中央经济工作会议 12 月 10 日至 11 日在北京举行,会议提出坚 持内需主导,建设强大国内市场。深入实施提振消费专项行动,制定 实施城乡居民增收计划。扩大优质商品和服务 ...
高频数据跟踪:生产热度下行,大宗商品价格回落
China Post Securities· 2025-12-15 03:49
研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 分析师:崔超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523120001 Email:cuichao@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《债务周期"出清阶段",政策组合延 续——中央经济工作会议点评 20251212》 - 2025.12.12 固收周报 生产热度下行,大宗商品价格回落 ——高频数据跟踪 20251213 核心观点 证券研究报告:固定收益报告 发布时间:2025-12-15 高频经济数据关注点:第一,生产端热度整体下降,焦炉、高炉、 沥青开工率及螺纹钢产量均下降,PX、PTA 开工率持平,轮胎开工率 升高。第二,商品房成交边际回落,土地供应面积高位持续回落。第 三,物价整体下行,原油、焦煤、铜、铝、螺纹钢价格均下降,农产 品整体价格持续上涨,但猪肉价格持续下降。第四,波罗的海干散货 指数高位大幅回落。短期重点关注总量端增量政策落地及房地产市场 恢复情况。 生产:高炉开工率下行,轮胎开工率回升 12 月 12 日当周,焦炉产能利用率下降 0.72 pct,高炉开工率下 降 1 ...
有色金属行业报告(2025.12.08-2025.12.12):风偏调整引发回调,建议逢低增配有色板块
China Post Securities· 2025-12-15 02:53
Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Insights - The report suggests that the recent adjustments in risk preferences have led to a pullback, recommending to accumulate positions in the non-ferrous metal sector on dips [4] - Precious metals are advised to be held firmly, with COMEX gold rising by 2.42% and silver by 5.59%, despite short-term adjustments [4] - Copper prices have shown volatility due to market adjustments, with LME copper down by 0.96%, but a supply-demand tightness is expected in 2026 [5] - Aluminum prices are supported by low inventory levels, with LME aluminum down by 0.88% [5] - Tin prices have surged past 330,000 yuan/ton, driven by supply chain concerns and market optimism [6] - Tungsten prices continue to rise, with black tungsten concentrate reaching 370,000 yuan/ton, amid supply constraints [7] - Investment suggestions include companies such as Shengda Resources, Xingye Silver Tin, Chifeng Gold, Shenhuo Co., and Zijin Mining [8] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector experienced a weekly decline of 0.51%, ranking 14th among sectors [16] - The top five gainers in the sector were Xibu Materials, Zhongzhou Special Materials, Yinbang Co., Huaguang New Materials, and Xinxin Co. [18] Prices - Basic metals saw LME copper down by 0.96%, aluminum down by 0.88%, zinc up by 1.31%, lead down by 2.14%, and tin up by 2.36% [20] - Precious metals experienced increases with COMEX gold up by 2.42% and silver up by 5.59% [20] Inventory - Global visible inventory changes included a copper increase of 18,742 tons, aluminum decrease of 6,323 tons, zinc decrease of 2,897 tons, lead decrease of 8,184 tons, tin increase of 1,146 tons, and nickel increase of 402 tons [36]
12月美联储议息会议点评:降息符合预期,购债操作重启
China Post Securities· 2025-12-12 08:48
证券研究报告:宏观报告 研究所 分析师:李起 SAC 登记编号:S1340524110001 Email:liqi2@cnpsec.com 研究助理:高晓洁 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020001 Email:gaoxiaojie@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《中共中央经济工作会议精神学习:符 合预期,整体定调更具针对性》 - 2025.12.12 宏观观点 降息符合预期,购债操作重启——12 月美联储议息 会议点评 ⚫ 核心观点: 联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)在本周会议上决定将联邦基金利率 目标区间下调 25 个基点至 3.5%-3.75%,符合市场预期。本次决议出 现三票反对票,除了美联储理事米兰依然坚持主张应降息 50 个基点 外,堪萨斯城联储主席施密德、芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比均认为本月 不应降息。会议声明中修改了两处措辞,包括加入了"在考虑额外调 整的范围和时机时"委员会将密切关注新数据;以及"委员会认为, 准备金余额已降至充足水平,并将根据需要持续购买短期国债"。 不同于此前市场普遍预期的鹰派降息,本次会议整体基调略偏鸽 派。首先,美联储宣布启动以准备金管理为目的的国债购买操作,首 ...