Economic Outlook - The difficulty of achieving the annual economic growth target has decreased, reducing the necessity for macro policy intensification within the year[1] - Expanding domestic demand remains crucial for stabilizing the economy, with service consumption expected to be a core driver of consumption growth[1] Consumption Trends - In October, the weighted year-on-year growth rate of investment, retail, and exports was -4.29%, indicating a decline in demand momentum[10] - Retail sales growth continued to weaken, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9% in October, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[13] - Service consumption is outpacing goods consumption, with education, culture, and entertainment services growing by 10.4% and transportation and communication services by 7.73% in September[22] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of 1.7% from January to October, with real estate investment down by 14.7%[25] - Infrastructure investment has turned negative for the first time this year, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 0.1%[25] - New infrastructure investment opportunities are highlighted, particularly in information communication networks and major technological infrastructure[26] Policy Recommendations - The central bank is expected to maintain a loose monetary policy to support credit growth for the upcoming year[35] - Policies should focus on stabilizing the real estate market to facilitate a smooth industry transition, which is critical for short-term economic growth[34]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the precious metals market is experiencing volatility, with a recommendation to hold positions and wait for the next upward wave. Gold is suggested to be bought around $3950 per ounce, with expectations of a 2-3 month consolidation period due to previous rapid price increases [4] - Copper prices are expected to stabilize due to supply disruptions, with a recommendation to buy on dips. The anticipated supply-demand tightness in 2026 is highlighted, driven by production cuts from major suppliers [5] - Aluminum prices are supported by rigid supply despite the end of the peak season, with downstream processing rates slightly increasing. However, a structural divergence in demand is expected [5] - Tin prices are projected to remain high due to ongoing supply tightness, with a decline in domestic refined tin production noted. The demand from AI and semiconductor sectors is expected to drive growth [6] - The lithium market is experiencing strong demand driven by the energy storage sector, with optimistic projections for future growth in storage capacity [6][8] Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 0.8%, ranking 18th among sectors [15] Section 2: Prices - LME copper increased by 1.41%, aluminum decreased by 0.12%, zinc decreased by 1.70%, lead increased by 1.03%, and tin increased by 2.90% this week. Precious metals saw COMEX gold rise by 1.91% and silver by 4.51% [21] Section 3: Inventory - Global visible inventories showed an increase in copper by 18,188 tons, aluminum by 4,122 tons, zinc by 6,560 tons, lead by 27,899 tons, tin by 159 tons, and nickel by 1,379 tons [33][35] Section 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Dazhong Mining, Guocheng Mining, Zhongkuang Resources, and others for potential investment opportunities [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the fourth quarter, the bond market may move in a volatile manner. The short - end has high allocation and trading value, and the inter - bank certificate of deposit rate is in a high - allocation - value range with the possibility of an unexpected decline at the end of the year. The long - end has some room for repair due to the previous expansion of the term spread. With the increasing expectation of easing, a more optimistic view on the subsequent bond market can be taken [2][9]. - To maintain relatively loose social financing conditions, it is necessary to maintain the growth rates of social financing and money supply, and pay attention to the red - line level around 8%. If the growth rates fall below this level, it may trigger monetary easing [2][4][10]. - The current interest - rate comparison relationships concerned by the central bank are relatively reasonable, which is a prerequisite for further reducing policy rates. After the large - scale repurchase in November, the necessity for the central bank to increase bond purchases and cut the reserve requirement ratio is low. The conditions for another reduction of policy rates are mature. For the bond market, the yield may maintain a narrow - range oscillation. A reduction in policy rates will bring an opportunity for the yield curve to shift downward, but the short - end has a more solid foundation for decline, while the long - end still faces strong cashing - out pressure [3][4][15]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 How to Understand the Relatively Loose Social Financing Conditions? - **Bond Market Outlook**: In the fourth quarter, the bond market may move in a volatile way. The short - end has high value, and the long - end has repair space. With the increasing easing expectation, the subsequent bond market can be viewed more optimistically [2][9]. - **Social Financing and Money Growth Rates**: Credit growth decline is not a major concern, but a further decline in social financing and money growth rates needs attention. The 8% growth - rate range reflects economic growth and price - expectation targets, and a fall below it may trigger monetary easing. The social financing growth is affected by the government bond issuance rhythm, and non - bank deposits maintain high volatility [10]. - **Interest - Rate Relationships and Policy Implications**: The current interest - rate comparison relationships are relatively reasonable. To maintain relatively loose social financing conditions, policy rates and related interest - rate levels can be further reduced to hedge economic pressure from a "cross - cycle" perspective [12]. - **Central Bank Operations**: After the large - scale repurchase in November (the combined scale of 3 - month and 6 - month repurchases reached 500 billion, and the stock scale rose to a new high of 6.3 trillion), the necessity for the central bank to increase bond purchases and cut the reserve requirement ratio is low [14].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The report highlights a rapid increase in influenza-like illness (ILI) cases, suggesting that related detection and treatment products are expected to see significant growth. Recent data from the National Influenza Center indicates that the ILI percentage in southern provinces is 5.5%, up from 4.6% the previous week, and higher than the same period in 2022 and 2024 [5][14]. - The report emphasizes the long-term positive trend in the innovative drug sector, supported by China's growing capabilities in global competition and ongoing collaborations with multinational corporations [8][25][26]. - The medical device sector is showing signs of recovery, with leading companies reporting improved performance in Q3, indicating a potential influx of investment into this area [9][32]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform the Market" [2]. Recent Trends - The A-share pharmaceutical sector rose by 3.29% from November 10 to November 14, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.37 percentage points [7][23]. - The report notes that the medical device sector is expected to benefit from a reduction in the pressure from centralized procurement, which has been ongoing for six years [9][32]. Influenza and Related Products - The report indicates a rising trend in flu positivity rates in both southern and northern hospitals, with the southern region currently higher than the previous two years but lower than 2023 [6][16]. - Beneficiary stocks in the detection sector include companies like Innotec and Saint Shine, while traditional Chinese medicine companies such as Yiling Pharmaceutical are also highlighted [21]. Innovative Drugs - The report expresses optimism about the innovative drug sector, noting that domestic companies are expected to accelerate their growth and profitability, supported by favorable policies [25][26]. - Recommended stocks in this sector include Innovent Biologics and Kintor Pharmaceutical [27]. Medical Devices - The report suggests that the medical device sector is becoming attractive for investment, with leading companies like Mindray showing improved performance [9][32]. - Beneficiary stocks include Huadong Medicine and Aohua Endoscopy [33]. Traditional Chinese Medicine - The report indicates that traditional Chinese medicine is under pressure but may benefit from centralized procurement policies and innovation [36][38]. - Recommended stocks include Zhaoke Pharmaceutical and Kangyuan Pharmaceutical [36]. Retail Pharmacy - The report anticipates that the retail pharmacy sector will see increased concentration, with leading companies like Yifeng Pharmacy expected to benefit from market consolidation [39]. Overall Market Valuation - As of November 14, 2025, the overall valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is 30.83, with a premium of 129.30% over the CSI 300 index, indicating a positive market outlook [47].

Report Information - Report Title: Fixed Income Report - Release Date: November 17, 2025 - Analysts: Liang Weichao, Cui Chao [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall production heat has declined, with decreases in the capacity utilization rates of coke ovens, blast furnaces, asphalt, PTA, and all-steel tires, as well as a reduction in rebar production. PX and semi-steel tire capacity utilization rates remained relatively stable [2][31]. - The demand side shows a decline in commercial housing transaction area, an increase in the inventory-to-sales ratio, a decrease in land supply area, and a decline in the residential land transaction premium rate. Movie box office, automobile retail, and wholesale volumes have also decreased. However, the BDI index has risen slightly [2][3]. - Prices have improved marginally compared to the previous week. Crude oil and copper prices have rebounded, while coking coal prices have dropped significantly. Agricultural product prices continue their seasonal upward trend [2][4]. - In terms of shipping prices, the SCFI has declined for two consecutive weeks, while the BDI has increased slightly. Short-term focus should be on the implementation of incremental policies on the consumption and investment fronts and the recovery of the real estate market [2][31]. Section Summaries Production - Steel: Coke oven capacity utilization decreased by 0.74 pct, blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.32 pct, and rebar production decreased by 8.54 tons [2][10]. - Petroleum Asphalt: The operating rate decreased by 0.7 pct [2][10]. - Chemicals: The PX operating rate remained flat, while the PTA operating rate decreased by 1.77 pct [2][10]. - Automobile Tires: The all-steel tire operating rate decreased by 0.96 pct, and the semi-steel tire operating rate increased by 0.01 pct [2][11]. Demand - Real Estate: Commercial housing transaction area decreased, inventory-to-sales ratio increased, land supply area decreased, and residential land transaction premium rate declined [3][14]. - Movie Box Office: Decreased by 3 million yuan compared to the previous week [3][14]. - Automobile: Daily retail sales decreased by 109,000 vehicles, and daily wholesale sales decreased by 158,000 vehicles [3][16]. - Shipping Freight: The SCFI index decreased by 2.92%, the CCFI index increased by 3.39%, and the BDI index increased by 1% [3][19]. Prices - Energy: Brent crude oil price increased by 1.19% to $64.39 per barrel, while coking coal futures price decreased by 6.06% to 1,201 yuan per ton [4][21]. - Metals: LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by +1.41%, -0.12%, and -1.70% respectively, and domestic rebar futures price increased by 0.36% [4][22]. - Agricultural Products: The overall price continued to rise, with the Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index increasing by 0.20%. Pork, egg, vegetable, and fruit prices changed by -0.93%, +2.31%, -1.04%, and +0.85% respectively compared to the previous week [4][24]. Logistics - Subway Passenger Volume: Beijing's subway passenger volume decreased slightly, while Shanghai's increased slightly [27]. - Flight Operations: Domestic flight operations increased, while international flight operations continued to decrease [29]. - Urban Traffic: The peak congestion index in first-tier cities declined at an accelerating rate [29]. Summary - The production heat continued to decline, with decreases in the operating rates of coke ovens, blast furnaces, asphalt, PTA, and all-steel tires, as well as a reduction in rebar production. PX and semi-steel tire operating rates remained relatively stable [31]. - The commercial housing transaction area declined, significantly lower than the same period in previous years. Land supply area decreased marginally, with a expected peak in land supply at the end of the month [31]. - Prices improved marginally compared to the previous week, with crude oil and copper prices rebounding, coking coal prices dropping significantly, and agricultural product prices continuing their seasonal upward trend [31]. - Shipping prices saw the SCFI decline for two consecutive weeks and the BDI increase slightly. Short-term focus should be on the implementation of incremental policies on the consumption and investment fronts and the recovery of the real estate market [31].

证券研究报告：计算机 | 公司点评报告 发布时间：2025-11-17 股票投资评级 增持|首次覆盖 个股表现 -20% -13% -6% 1% 8% 15% 22% 29% 36% 43% 2024-11 2025-01 2025-04 2025-06 2025-09 2025-11 恒银科技 计算机 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 | 公司基本情况 | | --- | | 最新收盘价（元） | 12.03 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）5.21 / 5.21 | | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）63 / 63 | | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 12.94 / 6.93 | | 资产负债率(%) | 25.1% | | 市盈率 | 150.38 | | 第一大股东 | 恒融投资集团有限公司 | 研究所 分析师:孙业亮 SAC 登记编号:S1340522110002 Email:sunyeliang@cnpsec.com 分析师:刘聪颖 SAC 登记编号:S1340525100001 Email:liucongying@cnpsec.com 恒银科技(603106) 大力调 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Add" [2] Core Insights - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 2.958 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.05%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 127 million yuan, up 61.17% year-on-year [5][6] - The company has shown a consistent improvement in profits, with a significant increase in net profit growth rates in Q1-Q3 2025, particularly in Q3 where the growth rate reached 340% [6] - The company is focusing on new product launches, including innovations in packaging production lines and humanoid robots, which are expected to drive future growth [7] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved total revenues of 8.90, 10.11, and 10.57 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 7%, 18%, and 32% respectively [6] - The gross profit margin remained stable at 27.71%, while the expense ratio decreased to 20.93% [6] - As of Q3 2025, the company's contract liabilities reached 2.138 billion yuan, indicating a healthy backlog of orders [6] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 3.936 billion, 4.501 billion, and 4.782 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.35%, 14.34%, and 6.26% respectively [8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 161 million, 262 million, and 305 million yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 930.80%, 63.40%, and 16.18% respectively [8] - The estimated P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are 39.75, 24.33, and 20.94, maintaining the "Add" rating [8]

Quantitative Models and Construction GRU Model - **Model Name**: GRU (Generalized Rotation Unit) Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The GRU model is designed to capture industry rotation trends and optimize stock selection by leveraging short-term and long-term market dynamics[3][4][5] - **Model Construction Process**: - The GRU model is applied across different stock pools (e.g., CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000) to evaluate multi-factor performance - It incorporates multiple sub-models such as `barra1d`, `barra5d`, `open1d`, and `close1d` to assess short-term and long-term factor returns - The model evaluates the long-short performance of stocks by ranking them based on factor scores and constructing portfolios with the top 10% (long) and bottom 10% (short) stocks[3][4][5] - **Model Evaluation**: The GRU model demonstrates strong performance in capturing positive long-short returns, particularly in the `barra5d` and `close1d` sub-models, which show consistent strength across different stock pools[4][5][6] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Style Factors (Barra Factors) - **Factor Names**: Beta, Size, Momentum, Volatility, Non-linear Size, Valuation, Liquidity, Profitability, Growth, Leverage[14][15] - **Factor Construction Ideas**: - These factors are designed to capture specific market characteristics such as risk, size, valuation, and growth potential - They are derived from historical price data, financial metrics, and analyst forecasts - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Beta**: Historical beta - **Size**: Natural logarithm of total market capitalization - **Momentum**: Mean of historical excess return series - **Volatility**: Weighted combination of historical excess return volatility, cumulative excess return deviation, and residual return volatility - **Non-linear Size**: Cubic transformation of size - **Valuation**: Inverse of price-to-book ratio - **Liquidity**: Weighted combination of monthly, quarterly, and annual turnover rates - **Profitability**: Weighted combination of analyst forecasted earnings-to-price ratio, inverse of price-to-cash flow ratio, inverse of trailing twelve-month price-to-earnings ratio, and forecasted growth rates - **Growth**: Weighted combination of earnings growth rate and revenue growth rate - **Leverage**: Weighted combination of market leverage, book leverage, and debt-to-asset ratio[15] - **Factor Evaluation**: Valuation, leverage, and volatility factors showed strong long performance, while beta, momentum, and liquidity factors performed well on the short side during the week[16] Fundamental Factors - **Factor Names**: Static Financial Indicators, Growth Indicators, Surprise Growth Indicators - **Factor Construction Ideas**: These factors are derived from financial statements and are designed to capture company fundamentals such as profitability, growth, and operational efficiency - **Factor Construction Process**: - Financial indicators are calculated using trailing twelve-month (TTM) data - Growth indicators include metrics like revenue growth and earnings growth - Surprise growth indicators measure deviations from analyst expectations[19][20][22] - **Factor Evaluation**: Static financial indicators showed significant negative returns, while growth and surprise growth indicators had mixed performance. Low-growth stocks outperformed across all stock pools[20][22][27] Technical Factors - **Factor Names**: Short-term Momentum, Short-term Volatility, Medium-term Momentum, Medium-term Volatility, Median Absolute Deviation - **Factor Construction Ideas**: These factors are derived from historical price data and are designed to capture price trends and volatility - **Factor Construction Process**: - Momentum factors are calculated as the average excess return over specific time windows (e.g., 20-day, 60-day, 120-day) - Volatility factors are calculated as the standard deviation of returns over specific time windows - Median absolute deviation measures the dispersion of returns around the median[20][24][26] - **Factor Evaluation**: Short-term momentum and volatility factors showed positive returns, while medium-term factors generally underperformed. Low-volatility and low-momentum stocks were favored[20][24][26] --- Model Backtesting Results GRU Model - **Open1d**: Weekly excess return of 1.10%, monthly return of 1.55%, and YTD return of 7.19%[34] - **Close1d**: Weekly excess return of 1.84%, monthly return of 3.56%, and YTD return of 6.24%[34] - **Barra1d**: Weekly excess return of 0.45%, monthly return of -0.26%, and YTD return of 5.19%[34] - **Barra5d**: Weekly excess return of 1.77%, monthly return of 4.51%, and YTD return of 9.23%[34] - **Multi-factor Portfolio**: Weekly excess return of 0.75%, monthly return of 1.16%, and YTD return of 1.65%[34] Style Factors - **Beta**: Weekly return of -5.67%, monthly return of -10.16%, and YTD return of 21.16%[17] - **Momentum**: Weekly return of 4.04%, monthly return of -9.28%, and YTD return of 18.32%[17] - **Liquidity**: Weekly return of -2.91%, monthly return of 6.35%, and YTD return of 11.43%[17] - **Size**: Weekly return of 2.67%, monthly return of 18.45%, and YTD return of 41.09%[17] - **Non-linear Size**: Weekly return of 1.80%, monthly return of -7.67%, and YTD return of 35.55%[17] - **Growth**: Weekly return of 1.59%, monthly return of -2.69%, and YTD return of 2.47%[17] - **Profitability**: Weekly return of 1.13%, monthly return of 0.03%, and YTD return of 15.36%[17] - **Volatility**: Weekly return of 1.35%, monthly return of -1.31%, and YTD return of 4.82%[17] - **Leverage**: Weekly return of 1.36%, monthly return of 3.48%, and YTD return of 15.46%[17] - **Valuation**: Weekly return of 1.45%, monthly return of 4.88%, and YTD return of 2.98%[17] Fundamental Factors - **Net Profit Surprise Growth**: Weekly return of 3.62%, monthly return of -2.63%, and YTD return of 37.43%[23] - **Operating Profit Margin Surprise Growth**: Weekly return of 1.77%, monthly return of 1.65%, and YTD return of 2.46%[23] - **ROA Surprise Growth**: Weekly return of 0.73%, monthly return of 0.19%, and YTD return of 11.22%[23] - **ROA Growth**: Weekly return of -0.70%, monthly return of 0.10%, and YTD return of 25.43%[23] Technical Factors - **20-day Momentum**: Weekly return of 1.88%, monthly return of 5.00%, and YTD return of -5.82%[21][24] - **60-day Momentum**: Weekly return of -10.66%, monthly return of -0.05%, and YTD return of -5.73%[21][24] - **120-day Momentum**: Weekly return of 0.13%, monthly return of 0.13%, and YTD return of -3.53%[21][24] - **20-day Volatility**: Weekly return of 0.08%, monthly return of -0.79%, and YTD return of 11.01%[21][24] - **60-day Volatility**: Weekly return of -0.67%, monthly return of -3.35%, and YTD return of 7.37%[21][24] - **120-day Volatility**: Weekly return of 0.50%, monthly return of -4.08%, and YTD return of 11.22%[21][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][7] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.39 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.24%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 133 million yuan, up 35.7% year-on-year [4] - The company is focusing on high-value-added products and has several seed businesses expected to gradually enter a harvest phase. It aims to raise up to 818 million yuan through a private placement to invest in agricultural machinery components, garden tools, and micro-chain systems [6] - The company has established a strategic partnership with Shanghai Zhuoyide Robot Co., Ltd. to develop applications in the field of dexterous robotic hands, leveraging its micro-chain products [5] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 22.80%, an increase of 0.67 percentage points year-on-year. The expense ratio decreased by 0.12 percentage points to 13.85% [5] - The company forecasts revenues of 1.986 billion yuan, 2.251 billion yuan, and 2.524 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.22%, 13.35%, and 12.14% [7][11] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for the same years is 170 million yuan, 197 million yuan, and 244 million yuan, with growth rates of 30.10%, 15.71%, and 23.55% [7][11] Valuation Metrics - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 32.79, 28.33, and 22.93, respectively [7][11] - The company’s total market capitalization is 5.6 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 82 million shares [3]

Market Performance Review - The A-share market experienced significant differentiation this week, with major indices showing mixed results. The CSI A50 index rose by 0.26%, while the Shanghai Composite Index slightly declined by 0.18%. In contrast, the ChiNext and STAR Market indices fell by 3.01% and 3.85%, respectively [3][11] - The consumer sector led the market, with significant gains in the comprehensive sector (6.99%), textiles and apparel (4.41%), retail (4.06%), beauty and personal care (3.75%), and pharmaceuticals (3.29%). Conversely, the communication and electronics sectors both dropped by 4.77% [12][30] A-share High-Frequency Data Tracking - The dynamic HMM timing model suggests a current market position leaning towards volatility, recommending a 10.4% allocation [15] - Personal investor sentiment has shown a slight recovery, with the sentiment index moving to 3.34% as of November 15, up from -1.9% on November 8 [20][22] - Financing sentiment fluctuated throughout the week, with financing transactions remaining stable and below 20% for four consecutive trading days [24] Future Market Outlook and Investment Views - The market is expected to continue its volatile pattern, with limited upward potential due to a lack of significant capital inflow and an increase in planned share reductions by listed companies [4][30] - The report suggests maintaining a growth style in investment strategy, focusing on sectors that meet the "turnaround + high growth" criteria, particularly in photovoltaic equipment and commercial industries positioned for growth [30]