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出口增速韧性不减,关注产品结构升级红利释放
China Post Securities· 2026-01-15 09:26
Export Performance - In December, China's export growth exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous value, and a two-year compound growth rate of 8.62%[9] - For the entire year of 2025, cumulative export growth was 5.5%, nearly matching the 2024 figure of 5.82%, indicating strong export momentum despite U.S. tariff policies[9] - High-tech products drove export growth, with a 13.2% year-on-year increase, contributing 2.4 percentage points to overall export growth[18] Trade Partner Dynamics - China's trade partnerships have diversified, with exports to ASEAN and the EU increasing, while exports to the U.S. decreased to 11.14% of total exports, down 3.52 percentage points from the previous year[11] - Exports to "Belt and Road" countries grew by 11.2%, contributing 5.4 percentage points to overall export growth, with ASEAN becoming the largest export market for three consecutive years[11] Import Trends - December imports also exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year growth of 5.7%, significantly higher than the market forecast of -0.28%[20] - The cumulative import growth for 2025 was flat at 0%, indicating stability in import levels compared to the previous year[20] Future Outlook - Despite a high base effect, export growth is expected to remain a key contributor to economic growth in 2026, with an estimated growth rate of around 3%[2] - The ongoing upgrade of product structures, particularly in high-tech and green products, is anticipated to continue supporting export growth[25]
浩瀚深度(688292):网络可视化与数据智能化龙头,AI战略落地打开长期发展天花板
China Post Securities· 2026-01-15 08:06
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][11]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in network visualization and data intelligence, with a strategic focus on AI implementation that opens up long-term growth potential [3]. - The acquisition of a 35% stake in Yunbianyun signifies the company's commitment to deepening its AI strategy, expanding its capabilities across various core industries such as retail, manufacturing, and healthcare [8]. - The company has established a robust foundation in DPI (Deep Packet Inspection) technology, which enhances its security capabilities and positions it as a benchmark for domestic intelligent defense solutions [4]. - The company is actively involved in the automotive internet security sector, benefiting from advancements in autonomous driving technologies [5]. - The company is also participating in the commercialization of satellite communications, which is expected to accelerate its growth as a supplier in this emerging ecosystem [6]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 497 million, 594 million, and 704 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.39%, 19.44%, and 18.53% [11][13]. - Basic earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.25, 0.51, and 0.78 yuan for the same years, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 125.45, 60.84, and 39.77 [11][13]. - The company maintains a low debt-to-asset ratio of 18.5%, indicating a strong financial position [2].
贵州茅台(600519):市场化运营方案披露,产品渠道运营全方位改革
China Post Securities· 2026-01-15 06:31
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the benchmark index within six months [7]. Core Insights - The company has disclosed a comprehensive market-oriented operation plan for 2026, focusing on reforms in product systems, operational models, channel layouts, and pricing mechanisms [4]. - The product system is optimized into a pyramid structure, with the base focusing on the flagship product, while premium and ultra-high-end products are strategically positioned to enhance social and collectible attributes [4][6]. - The operational model has been upgraded to a multi-dimensional collaborative marketing system, moving from traditional sales methods to a combination of self-sale, distribution, consignment, and agency sales [5]. - The company has implemented a dynamic pricing mechanism based on market demand, which includes adjustments to retail prices and channel profit margins [5][6]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 182.91 billion, 188.81 billion, and 199.54 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 90.61 billion, 93.26 billion, and 99.33 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 5.03%, 3.23%, and 5.68% respectively [7][9]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 1,398.01 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 175.07 billion yuan [3]. - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 19.0% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.37 [3].
东鹏饮料(605499):收入符合预期,费用端前置投放积极
China Post Securities· 2026-01-15 05:42
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within six months [5][13]. Core Insights - The company is projected to achieve a revenue of 20.76-21.12 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 31.07%-33.34%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be between 4.34-4.59 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 30.46%-37.97% [3][4]. - For Q4 2025, the company anticipates revenue of 3.916-4.276 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.35%-30.33%, and a net profit of 579-829 million yuan, with a growth range of -6.46% to 33.93% [3][4]. - The company plans to increase its investment in freezer placements and expand its overseas market presence over the next 5-10 years, aiming to enhance its global operational capabilities [4]. Financial Performance Summary - The estimated revenue for 2025 is 20.94 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 32.21%. The estimated net profit attributable to the parent company is 4.465 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 34.20% [4][5]. - The company forecasts revenues of 26.19 billion yuan and 30.92 billion yuan for 2026 and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 25.13% and 18.08% [5][9]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 8.59 yuan, 11.19 yuan, and 13.63 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 31, 24, and 19 [5][9].
AIforScience,重在AI+制药赛道
China Post Securities· 2026-01-15 05:33
证券研究报告:计算机|点评报告 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 行业基本情况 ⚫ 复盘 3 年 25 倍的 PLTR,我们认为好的 AI 应用赛道应当 具备以下特征 | 收盘点位 | 5947.69 | | --- | --- | | 52 周最高 | 6063.95 | | 52 周最低 | 4080.58 | 近期研究报告 《国产 AI 或将全面超越》 - 2026.01.12 AI for Science,重在 AI+制药赛道 行业相对指数表现(相对值) -6% -1% 4% 9% 14% 19% 24% 29% 34% 39% 2025-01 2025-03 2025-06 2025-08 2025-10 2026-01 计算机 沪深300 资料来源:聚源,中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:陈涵泊 SAC 登记编号:S1340525080001 Email:chenhanbo@cnpsec.com 分析师:李佩京 SAC 登记编号:S1340525080003 Email:lipeijing@cnpsec.com 分析师:王思 SAC 登记编号:S1340525080002 Email:wangsi1@c ...
政策吹响号角,AI驱动工业软件迈向“智变”关键期
China Post Securities· 2026-01-14 10:01
行业基本情况 证券研究报告:计算机|点评报告 发布时间:2026-01-14 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 收盘点位 | | 6063.95 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 6063.95 | | 52 | 周最低 | 3994.26 | 行业相对指数表现(相对值) -4% 2% 8% 14% 20% 26% 32% 38% 44% 50% 2025-01 2025-03 2025-06 2025-08 2025-10 2026-01 计算机 沪深300 资料来源:聚源,中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:陈涵泊 SAC 登记编号:S1340525080001 Email:chenhanbo@cnpsec.com 分析师:李佩京 SAC 登记编号:S1340525080003 Email:lipeijing@cnpsec.com 分析师:王思 SAC 登记编号:S1340525080002 Email:wangsi1@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《国产 AI 或将全面超越》 - 2026.01.12 政策吹响号角,AI 驱动工业软件迈向"智变"关 键期 ⚫ 政策加 ...
未来已至,“AI+医疗”行业或迎巨变
China Post Securities· 2026-01-14 03:19
行业相对指数表现(相对值) 强于大市 |维持 行业基本情况 | | 收盘点位 | 8787.25 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 9323.49 | | 52 | 周最低 | 6790.4 | 2025-01 2025-03 2025-06 2025-08 2025-10 2026-01 -4% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% 24% 28% 32% 36% 医药生物 沪深300 资料来源:聚源,中邮证券研究所 证券研究报告:医药生物|点评报告 行业投资评级 l AI 在制药、辅助诊断、医疗服务等领域步入成熟阶段 在制药领域,凭借 AI 技术平台强大的数据分析和模型预测能力, 相关公司在分子设计和药物筛选方面能够大幅提升药物的研发效率 和成功率。AI 制药公司通过和大型药企合作共同推动管线进展,涉及 计算机、物理、化学、生物、临床等交叉领域,管线推进越靠后,价 值量显著增高。在影像/手术领域:AI 通过在医疗影像分析方向深度 学习,能够快速识别病灶,实现精准诊断;AI 亦能辅助术前及术中及 时规划,并提供综合解决方案。在辅助诊断领域,主要参与者为数据 驱动型平台 ...
中集环科(301559):投资星环聚能,助力可控核聚变事业发展
China Post Securities· 2026-01-13 11:07
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within six months [9][15]. Core Insights - The company has invested in Star Ring Fusion, supporting the development of controllable nuclear fusion technology, with a total investment of 1 billion yuan in the A-round financing [4]. - Star Ring Fusion, established in October 2021, is based on Tsinghua University's technology and aims to complete engineering validation by 2028 and start commercial demonstration by around 2032 [5]. - The company is a leader in the tank container industry, holding approximately 50% of the global market share, and is actively exploring new business opportunities in high-end equipment and medical imaging sectors [6]. Financial Performance and Projections - The company’s projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.725 billion yuan, 3.998 billion yuan, and 4.916 billion yuan, respectively, with expected growth rates of -18.62%, 46.69%, and 22.97% [7][11]. - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for the same years is 169 million yuan, 308 million yuan, and 449 million yuan, with growth rates of -44.48%, 82.34%, and 45.93% [9][11]. - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios (P/E) are projected to be 65.62, 35.99, and 24.66 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [9][11].
看股做债专题二:固收专题
China Post Securities· 2026-01-13 09:29
发布时间:2026-01-13 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 研究助理:王一 SAC 登记编号:S1340125070001 Email:wangyi8@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《生产热度分化,物价整体回升——高 频数据跟踪 20260112》 - 2026.01.13 固收专题 "春季躁动"对债市有何影响 ? ——看股做债专题二 ⚫ 股市春季行情涨幅越大,债市承压概率越高 证券研究报告:固定收益报告 从长期样本看,A 股春季躁动是少数同时具备高胜率与可观赔率 的阶段性行情窗口,历史上涨概率超过九成,春季行情主升段的历史 平均最大涨幅约 14%。从债市视角看,上证春季涨幅超过 20%时,10 年期国债大概率在春季行情同期下跌。但在更为常见的 10%—20%中等 涨幅区间,债市并非必然逆风,反而更容易表现为震荡或阶段性修复。 ⚫ 春季行情中段加速相比触底反弹,更易压制债市 行情发生在急跌后的低位修复阶段时,权益上涨主要体现为估值 与风险偏好修复,对名义增长与通胀的外溢有限,若同时伴随降准、 降息等宽 ...
天智航(688277):骨科机器人龙头有望受益于政策拐点,商业模式或持续优化
China Post Securities· 2026-01-13 09:19
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1] Core Insights - The company is positioned to benefit from a policy turning point in robotic surgery, with an expected improvement in payment policies for orthopedic surgical robots [4] - The company has launched the world's first all-orthopedic surgical robot, establishing a leading advantage in the market [4] - Revenue growth is significant, with consumables and service income projected to become major growth drivers in the future [4] Company Overview - Latest closing price: 18.89 CNY - Total shares: 4.56 billion, with a market capitalization of 8.6 billion CNY [3] - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 24.3% and a current P/E ratio of -69.96 [3] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 187 million CNY, representing a 103.5% increase year-on-year [4] - The company completed approximately 35,000 surgeries in the first three quarters of 2025, maintaining a dominant position in the domestic market [4] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 266 million CNY, 383 million CNY, and 549 million CNY, respectively, with expected net profits of -151 million CNY, 2 million CNY, and 77 million CNY [5][8]