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2026-01-19:26年小核酸行业催化不断,持续看好产业链投资机会
China Post Securities· 2026-01-19 08:24
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The report emphasizes the continuous catalysts in the small nucleic acid industry for 2026, highlighting the potential investment opportunities within the industry chain [5][19] - The report suggests a positive outlook for innovative drugs and the industry chain, with expectations of increased global participation from domestic innovative drug companies and the introduction of more innovative projects in 2026 [11][30] - The report identifies the medical device sector as a potential area for capital inflow, with signs of improvement in leading companies and a reduction in the pressure from centralized procurement [13][34] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 8657.19, with a 52-week high of 9323.49 and a low of 6876.88 [2] Recent Market Performance - The A-share pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector fell by 0.68% from January 12 to January 16, 2026, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.11 percentage points [9][28] - The medical research outsourcing sector performed the best among sub-sectors, rising by 3.69%, while the vaccine sector declined by 3.43% [10][28] Innovative Drugs and Industry Chain - The JPM conference highlighted the strengthening of industry development logic, with increased merger and acquisition activity among multinational corporations and breakthroughs in domestic innovative drugs [11][30] - The report recommends focusing on companies with high certainty and relatively low disruption expectations, such as Innovent Biologics and others [11][30] Medical Devices - The report notes that the medical device sector is showing signs of improvement, with leading companies reporting better performance in Q3 [13][34] - The report suggests that the pressure from centralized procurement is decreasing, which may lead to valuation recovery [13][34] Small Nucleic Acid Drugs - The report highlights several key clinical trials and data readouts expected in 2026 from companies like Alnylam, Arrowhead, and Wave Life Sciences, indicating a significant focus on the weight loss and CNS fields [6][8][27] - The report encourages attention to domestic small nucleic acid-related companies and upstream industry chains [27] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the CXO and life science services sectors, as demand for overseas R&D and production outsourcing is expected to recover steadily [12][31] - It also highlights the potential for valuation re-evaluation opportunities in the biopharmaceutical sector, particularly for blood products and vaccines [32][33]
高频数据跟踪20260119:生产、物价走势均分化
China Post Securities· 2026-01-19 07:27
Report Information - Report Type: Fixed Income Report - Release Date: January 19, 2026 - Analysts: Liang Weichao (SAC ID: S1340523070001), Cui Chao (SAC ID: S1340523120001) [2] Core Views - High - frequency economic data focuses: production end shows a differentiated heat, with the decline in the operating rates of coke ovens, blast furnaces, and PTA, and the increase in the operating rates of asphalt, PX, and tires; the floor area of commercial housing transactions continues to decline while the land supply area slightly increases; price trends are also differentiated, with slight increases in the prices of crude oil, zinc, and rebar, and copper prices rising and then falling; the overall price of agricultural products continues to decline, but the prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits all increase. In the short term, pay attention to the implementation of fiscal and monetary coordination policies [3][32] Section Summaries Production - Steel: The utilization rate of coke oven capacity decreased by 0.14 pct, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.47 pct, and the rebar output decreased by 0.74 tons in the week of January 16. The inventory also decreased by 5.27 tons [9] - Petroleum Asphalt: The operating rate continued to rise by 1.8 pct from a low level in the week of January 14 [9] - Chemical Industry: The PX operating rate increased by 1.25 pct, while the PTA operating rate decreased by 0.65 pct on January 15 [9] - Automobile Tires: The operating rate of all - steel tires increased by 4.91 pct, and that of semi - steel tires increased by 7.55 pct in the week of January 15 [10] Demand - Real Estate: In the week of January 11, the floor area of commercial housing transactions in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 107.21 square meters, the inventory - to - sales ratio increased, the land supply area in 100 large and medium - sized cities increased by 39.32 square meters, and the premium rate of residential land transactions increased by 0.62 pct [13] - Movie Box Office: It decreased by 711 million yuan in the week of January 11 [13] - Automobile: In the week of January 11, the average daily retail sales of automobile manufacturers decreased by 92,800 vehicles, and the average daily wholesale sales decreased by 175,200 vehicles [17] - Shipping Freight Rates: In the week of January 16, the SCFI index decreased by 4.45%, the CCFI index increased by 1.25%, and the BDI index decreased by 7.17% and has been falling rapidly since the peak in early December last year [20] Prices - Energy: The Brent crude oil price rose by 1.25% to $64.13 per barrel on January 16, while the coking coal futures price decreased by 0.34% to 1,184 yuan per ton [22] - Metals: The LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by - 1.5%, - 0.06%, and + 1.76% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures price rose by 0.86% on January 16 [22] - Agricultural Products: The overall price continued to decline, with the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices decreasing by 0.37%. However, the prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits increased by 0.56%, 3.31%, 0.18%, and 1.91% respectively compared with the previous week on January 16 [25] Logistics - Subway Passenger Volume: In Beijing and Shanghai, the seven - day moving average of subway passenger volume decreased by 484,700 and 287,100 person - times respectively on January 16 [28] - Flight Operations: On January 17, the seven - day moving average of domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) flight operations increased by 405.29 flights, domestic (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) increased by 1.14 flights, and international flights decreased by 18.86 flights [30] - Urban Traffic: On January 17, the seven - day moving average of the peak congestion index in first - tier cities decreased by 0.03 [30]
证券行业报告(2026.01.12-2026.01.16):公告券商核心业务全面发力,印证行业全面复苏
China Post Securities· 2026-01-19 06:46
Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is Neutral, maintained [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a comprehensive recovery in the securities industry, evidenced by significant profit growth from leading brokers such as CITIC Securities and Southwest Securities, with net profit increases of 38.46% and 47%-57% year-on-year respectively for 2025 [3][17] - The active capital market and supportive policies have contributed to the robust performance of the industry, with expectations for continued valuation recovery in the brokerage sector due to current liquidity benefits [3] Industry Fundamentals Tracking - As of January 16, 2026, the Shibor 3-month rate remained stable at 1.60%, indicating a low-cost environment for short-term financing, which is beneficial for brokers [4][18] - The average daily trading volume for stock funds during the week of January 12-16 was approximately 40,855 billion, reflecting a 21.32% increase from the previous week, signaling a recovery in market trading sentiment [5][19] - The margin financing balance has seen rapid growth, increasing from approximately 2.56 trillion to 2.72 trillion from January 5 to January 15, 2026, with the proportion of margin trading remaining above 10% [6][20] - The bond market index showed a slight upward trend, with the wealth index rising from 248.7749 points on January 9 to 249.2233 points on January 16, indicating a stable market environment [7][22] - The yield on 10-year government bonds fluctuated between 1.84% and 1.86%, reflecting a low-risk interest rate environment, while the stock-bond spread showed a mild upward trend [9][25] Market Review - The A-share securities industry index decreased by 2.21% last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.64 percentage points, with a year-on-year increase of 9.58% for the securities sector compared to 24.65% for the CSI 300 [10][27] - In terms of industry ranking, the securities sector ranked 26th among 31 primary industries, slightly outperforming the non-bank financial sector [10][28]
石化行业周报:受地缘影响,原油周内计价风险溢价
China Post Securities· 2026-01-19 05:45
Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Stronger than the market, maintained [1] Core Views - Focus: Expectations for marginal improvement in PX and PTA supply and demand this year. The price spread between PX (China main port) and naphtha (Japan) has started to decline, recorded at 326.08 USD/ton on the 15th, with attention on the potential for the price spread to strengthen again. Geopolitical influences from Iran have led to a risk premium in oil pricing this week [2] - Review: The performance of the oil and petrochemical index was average this week, with a decrease of 0.27% compared to last week. Among the sub-indices, oilfield services performed the best within the oil and petrochemical sector, with an increase of 1.63% [5][3] - Oil: Crude oil prices increased; US crude oil inventories rose while gasoline inventories fell [6][10] - Polyester: The price of polyester filament remained stable; inventory days for different varieties of polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang varied, with a decrease in weaving machine operating rates [13][20] - Olefins: Sample PE spot prices increased, while petrochemical inventories of polyolefins decreased [23][24] Summary by Sections Upstream - If geopolitical factors lead to a future oil premium, it will benefit upstream targets [2] Midstream (Refining) - An improvement in demand and progress in eliminating outdated production capacity will benefit midstream refining [2] Polyester Filament - Attention on the progress of PTA's internal competition and PX profit recovery; if successful, it will benefit polyester filament [2] Oil Market - Brent crude oil futures and TTF natural gas futures closed at 64.47 USD/barrel and 37.66 EUR/MWh, respectively, with increases of 1.6% and 32.1% compared to last week [7] Polyester Market - The latest data shows stable prices for polyester filament, with POY, DTY, and FDY prices at 6550, 7750, and 6800 CNY/ton, respectively, with price spreads increasing by 24 CNY/ton [15][21] Olefins Market - The sample PE price was 6920 CNY/ton, up 0.29% from last week, while petrochemical inventories of polyolefins decreased to 490,000 tons, down 80,000 tons from the previous week [26]
石化行业周报:受地缘影响,原油周内计价风险溢价-20260119
China Post Securities· 2026-01-19 05:27
Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Stronger than the market, maintained [1] Core Insights - Focus: Expectations for marginal improvement in PX and PTA supply and demand this year. The price spread between PX (China main port) and naphtha (Japan) has started to decline, recorded at 326.08 USD/ton on the 15th, with attention on the potential for the price spread to strengthen again. Geopolitical influences from Iran have led to a risk premium in oil pricing this week [2] - Review: The performance of the oil and petrochemical index was average this week, with a decrease of 0.27% compared to last week. Among the sub-indices, oilfield services performed the best within the oil and petrochemical sector, with an increase of 1.63% [5][3] - Oil: Crude oil prices increased; U.S. crude oil inventories rose while gasoline inventories fell [6][10] - Polyester: The price of polyester filament remained stable; inventory days for different varieties of polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang varied, with a decrease in weaving machine operating rates [13][20] - Olefins: Sample PE spot prices increased, while petrochemical inventories of polyolefins decreased [23][26] Summary by Sections Oil - Crude oil prices increased, with Brent crude futures and TTF natural gas futures closing at 64.47 USD/barrel and 37.66 EUR/MWh, respectively, marking increases of 1.6% and 32.1% compared to last week [7] - U.S. crude oil and petroleum product inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 6,210 thousand barrels; gasoline, jet fuel, and distillate fuel oil inventories changed by -35, -892, and -29 thousand barrels, respectively [12] Polyester - The price of polyester filament remained stable, with POY, DTY, and FDY prices at 6,550, 7,750, and 6,800 CNY/ton, respectively, with price spreads increasing by 24 CNY/ton for each type compared to last week [15] - Inventory days for polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were reported as 17.4, 23.2, and 12.8 days for FDY, DTY, and POY, respectively, with weaving machine operating rates decreasing by 0.6% [21][20] Olefins - Sample PE spot prices rose to 6,920 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.29% increase from the previous week [26] - Petrochemical inventories of polyolefins decreased to 490,000 tons, down by 80,000 tons from last week [26]
机构行为系列专题四:银行理财的权益增量
China Post Securities· 2026-01-19 05:26
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the current low - interest environment and with the rising demand for residents' wealth re - allocation, the improvement of wealth management product returns is likely to follow the path of strengthening the fixed - income base, structurally introducing equity assets, and enhancing risk management capabilities. The wealth management industry will seek a balance between return stability and stage elasticity through structural optimization and improved tool utilization, with the improvement in returns mainly reflected in the enhancement of allocation efficiency [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 1. Wealth Management Scale Seasonal Decline, Newly Issued Products Remain Conservative in the Equity Market - **1.1 Wealth management scale seasonal decline, fixed - deposit maturity brings re - allocation window**: By the end of December 2025, the total scale of wealth management products was about 33.2 trillion yuan, a decrease of about 0.8 trillion yuan from the end of November. The year - on - year growth rate in December was 11.8%, lower than that in November and December 2024. High - interest fixed deposits from the first quarter of 2023 will mature in the first quarter of 2026, with a 3 - year fixed - deposit rate of only about 1.25%, creating potential re - allocation power for non - deposit wealth management products [12][13]. - **1.2 Newly issued wealth management products still focus on pure fixed - income and low - weight fixed - income +**: From December 15, 2025, to January 15, 2026, newly issued wealth management products were still mainly pure fixed - income products in terms of scale. The funds of newly issued products were concentrated in R1 - R3 risk - level products, especially R2 products. The newly issued fixed - income products accounted for 98.74% of the total scale, and the fixed - income enhancement products accounted for 68.51% of the newly added funds [16]. 3.2 2. Characteristics of Wealth Management's Participation in Equities: Fixed - Income + as the Mainstay, Equity as a Supplement - **2.1 Existing products: Fixed - income + and multi - asset portfolios are the main carriers**: Wealth management's participation in the stock market is mainly through R3 - centered fixed - income + and multi - asset portfolios, introducing equity positions indirectly or directly through various means. Pure equity products are limited due to customer group characteristics, regulatory suitability constraints, and channel endowments [18]. - **2.2 Incremental products: Directional attempts of newly issued equity and fixed - income + products**: Since 2025, about 80 equity - index wealth management products have been newly issued, with Huaxia Wealth Management being the most active. However, the single - product scale is generally small, and products with a fixed - income nature are more likely to be subscribed [20]. 3.3 3. Performance of Wealth Management Yields in an Equity Bull Market - **3.1 Recent overall performance of wealth management is dominated by partial - stock hybrid categories**: In the equity bull market, fixed - income products maintain low - volatility and low - return characteristics, with an average weekly return of 0.02% - 0.06%. The return elasticity of hybrid products is significantly improved, with partial - stock hybrid products having an average weekly return of 0.93%. Equity products have the strongest upward elasticity, with an average weekly return of 0.58%, but their return distribution varies widely [22][23]. - **3.2 High - performing fixed - income + wealth management deeply participates in equity investment**: Some high - performing fixed - income + wealth management products have achieved a return of 10% - 15% this year, significantly higher than the performance benchmark. They increase returns by allocating equity ETFs, industry - themed funds, and convertible bond funds on the basis of bond assets [26]. 3.4 4. Feasible Paths for Wealth Management Products to Improve Returns in the Future - Wealth management products should give full play to their channel and customer - group advantages, optimize asset allocation and product structure within the policy boundaries. They should adopt a "gradual and explainable" allocation strategy, moderately include low - volatility equity sectors, and use index - based investment products. Although the reduction of fees has improved the cost - performance of wealth management products, there are still constraints in the sales incentive mechanism, risk constraints, and channel efficiency. In general, the development of fixed - income products containing equity is expected to follow the path of "strengthening the fixed - income base + structural equity participation + refined risk management" [28][29][31].
年末需求进入淡季,关注供给改善品种
China Post Securities· 2026-01-19 05:07
Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the cement market is entering a seasonal downturn, with overall demand showing a downward trend. The real estate market remains weak, while infrastructure demand is regionally differentiated due to policy drivers. The civil market shows relatively inelastic demand. In the medium term, cement industry capacity is expected to decline under policies limiting overproduction, leading to a significant increase in capacity utilization and profit elasticity. Key companies to watch include Conch Cement and Huaxin Cement [3][4] - The glass industry is experiencing sustained demand pressure due to the impact of real estate, with a continuous decline in demand expected in 2025. Short-term improvements in demand during the traditional peak season are limited, and inventory levels among intermediaries are relatively high. Despite recent cold repairs of several production lines, overall supply-demand pressure remains, and prices are expected to stay low in the short term. Key company to monitor is Qibin Group [4][14] - The fiberglass sector is seeing weak demand as the year-end approaches, with downstream purchasing performance being subdued. However, the electronic yarn segment is driven by demand from the AI industry, leading to a rise in both volume and price. The industry is expected to experience explosive growth in demand alongside AI advancements. Key companies to focus on include China Jushi and China National Building Material [4] - The consumer building materials sector has reached a profitability bottom, with prices having no further downward space after years of competition. The industry is strongly advocating for price increases and profit improvements, with expectations for 2026 to see recovery in profitability for leading companies such as Oriental Yuhong and Sanke [4] Summary by Sections Cement - The national cement market is gradually entering the off-season, with demand continuing to decline. The construction market remains weak, and infrastructure demand shows significant regional differentiation. The civil market has relatively rigid demand, and funding remains a key constraint on demand release. In the coming weeks, demand is expected to decrease significantly due to colder weather and the upcoming Spring Festival [8] - In November 2025, the monthly cement production was 154 million tons, a year-on-year decline of 8.2% [8] Glass - The glass industry is under pressure, with traditional peak season demand showing limited improvement. Inventory levels among intermediaries are high, and despite recent cold repairs, supply-demand pressure persists. Prices are expected to remain low in the short term [14] Fiberglass - The fiberglass sector is experiencing subdued demand as year-end approaches, but the electronic yarn segment is benefiting from AI industry demand, leading to a rise in both volume and price. The industry is expected to see significant growth in demand [4] Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials sector has reached a profitability bottom, with strong calls for price increases and profit improvements. Expectations for 2026 include recovery in profitability for leading companies [4]
药明康德:业绩超预期,Q4盈利能力维持稳定-20260119
China Post Securities· 2026-01-19 03:10
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for WuXi AppTec, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [8][14]. Core Insights - WuXi AppTec's revenue for 2025 is projected to be 45.46 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 19.15 billion yuan, a significant increase of 102.7% [5][8]. - The company's continuous operating business revenue growth exceeded expectations, with a 21.4% increase compared to previous guidance of 17-18% [6]. - The fourth quarter of 2025 showed a revenue of 12.6 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.2% quarter-on-quarter growth, and a net profit of 7.08 billion yuan, which is a 142.5% increase year-on-year [5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the company reported a total revenue of 45.46 billion yuan, with a continuous operating business revenue growth of 21.4% [5][6]. - The fourth quarter of 2025 saw a stable net profit margin of 35.1%, slightly lower than the previous quarter but significantly higher than the same quarter last year [7]. - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 45.46 billion yuan, 51.55 billion yuan, and 58.82 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 19.15 billion yuan, 16.73 billion yuan, and 19.32 billion yuan [8][10].
电网投资加速,看好跨区建设和电网保护
China Post Securities· 2026-01-19 03:07
| 收盘点位 | | 10679.07 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 10950.05 | | 52 | 周最低 | 6107.84 | 行业相对指数表现(相对值) 2025-01 2025-03 2025-06 2025-08 2025-11 2026-01 -11% -4% 3% 10% 17% 24% 31% 38% 45% 52% 59% 电力设备 沪深300 资料来源:聚源,中邮证券研究所 研究所 证券研究报告:电力设备|点评报告 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 行业基本情况 分析师:苏千叶 SAC 登记编号:S1340525110004 Email:suqianye@cnpsec.com 分析师:杨帅波 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070002 Email:yangshuaibo@cnpsec.com 分析师:盛炜 SAC 登记编号:S1340525120008 Email:shengwei@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《核电产业报告 1: ——全球核电复兴 下的 4 代核电的投资机会》 - 2026.01.06 电网投资加速,看好跨区建设和电 ...
有色金属行业报告(2026.1.12-2026.1.16):需求短期承压,建议逢低做多铜铝锡
China Post Securities· 2026-01-19 02:46
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the demand for non-ferrous metals is under short-term pressure, recommending to buy copper, aluminum, and tin on dips [3][4][5] - Precious metals are viewed positively, with silver prices rising and expectations of continued inflows into ETFs due to macroeconomic conditions [3] - The report highlights the potential for supply-demand tightness in copper due to production adjustments and government spending expectations [4] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the non-ferrous metals sector is at 9404.84, with a weekly high of 9504.06 and a low of 4295.55 [1] Price Movements - LME copper decreased by 2.76%, aluminum by 1.96%, zinc by 0.19%, lead by 0.75%, and tin by 1.02% during the week [20] - COMEX gold fell by 0.17%, while silver increased by 5.63% [20] Inventory Levels - Global visible inventories saw an increase of 72,618 tons for copper and 35,512 tons for aluminum, while tin inventories rose by 3,159 tons [30][31]