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云计算进入涨价周期,重视AI基础设施
China Post Securities· 2026-02-13 09:32
Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in demand for AI infrastructure driven by competition among major internet companies during the Spring Festival, leading to explosive growth in AI orders and a strain on backend infrastructure [5] - The token consumption in AI applications has seen exponential growth, with ByteDance's Doubao model reaching an average daily token usage of over 50 trillion, a tenfold increase year-on-year [6] - The cloud computing sector is entering a price increase cycle, with major players like Amazon and Google announcing significant price hikes for their services [7][8] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The closing index is at 5656.62, with a 52-week high of 6151.34 and a low of 4080.58 [2] Market Performance - The relative performance of the computer industry compared to the CSI 300 index shows fluctuations, with a notable decline of 21% in early 2025, followed by a recovery trend [4] Market Trends - The IDC market in China is projected to reach approximately 430 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of about 18% over five years, and the intelligent computing center market is expected to grow at an annual rate exceeding 30% [6] Price Adjustments - Major cloud service providers have announced price increases, with Amazon's EC2 machine learning capacity block prices rising by about 15% and Google's cloud services seeing price adjustments of up to 100% in North America [7][8]
百胜中国(09987):同店销售提速,26年展望积极
China Post Securities· 2026-02-12 08:55
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yum China (9987.HK) [5][15] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of $2.823 billion for Q4 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9%, with operating profit rising by 25% to $187 million and net profit increasing by 24% to $140 million [5][6] - For the full year 2025, the company achieved a revenue of $11.797 billion, up 4% year-on-year, with operating profit of $1.29 billion, an 11% increase, and net profit of $929 million, a 2% increase [5][6] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Latest closing price: HKD 445.60 - Total shares: 354 million - Total market capitalization: HKD 1,578.99 billion - 52-week high/low: HKD 450.00 / HKD 363.80 - Debt-to-asset ratio: 42.21% - Price-to-earnings ratio: 22.05 [4] Financial Performance - Q4 2025 saw a same-store sales growth of 3%, marking the third consecutive quarter of growth, with same-store transaction volume increasing for twelve consecutive quarters [6][7] - The company added 587 new stores in Q4 2025, the highest for the quarter, with a 36% increase in franchise store ratio [7] - The restaurant profit margin for Q4 2025 was 13%, up 70 basis points year-on-year, while the operating profit margin was 6.6%, up 80 basis points [7][8] Growth Drivers - The company’s delivery sales grew by 34% year-on-year, accounting for 53% of restaurant revenue, up from 42% the previous year [8][11] - Membership numbers for KFC and Pizza Hut exceeded 590 million, with active members growing by 13% [8] Future Outlook - The company plans to add 1,900 new stores in 2026, aiming for over 20,000 total stores, with capital expenditures projected at $600-700 million [14] - Revenue growth is expected to be 6.3% in 2026, with net profit growth of 10.1% [15][17]
固收专题:跨越化债边界,长久期城投债怎么看?
China Post Securities· 2026-02-12 07:12
证券研究报告:固定收益报告 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 分析师:谢鹏 SAC 登记编号:S1340525120001 Email:xiepeng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 固收专题 跨越化债边界,长久期城投债怎么看? ⚫ 久期选择的两难:继续要收益需要跨越化债时点 2026 年以来,中长久期城投债尤其是 4 年期表现亮眼:收益率方 面,长端收益率累计下行幅度明显大于短端,4 年期收益率绝对值和 分位数下降幅度均领先其他期限。信用利差方面,4 年期信用利差累 计收窄幅度明显大于其他期限,其分位数也回落至历史低位区间。期 限利差方面,4Y-3Y 利差收窄幅度在各期限利差中最大,其分位数也 下降近 20 个百分点。但即使从交易的角度,在获得 4Y–3Y 区间带来 的骑乘收益时,也需警惕估值偏离度随期限延长而急剧扩张的主体或 者区域,避免因化债退出后估值回调和流动性问题带来的冲击。这种 估值层面的定价反映,并不一定要在化债截止之后才会出现,在今后 的时间中,化债之后定价思路在风险溢价中的变动权重会越来越大 ...
晶丰明源:计算能源IC放量,拟收购易冲强化协同-20260211
China Post Securities· 2026-02-11 07:25
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 1.57 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.41%, with a net profit of 36 million yuan, up 208.92% year-on-year [5][6] - The company plans to acquire 100% equity of Easy Charge Technology to enhance business synergy, focusing on high-performance analog chips and mixed-signal chips, which will improve product offerings and market competitiveness [6][7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.57 billion, 2.20 billion, and 3.01 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 36 million, 210 million, and 400 million yuan [7][9] - The company’s gross margin is expected to increase, driven by an optimized product mix, particularly in motor control driver chips and high-performance computing power supply chips [6][9] - The company’s asset-liability ratio stands at 38.7%, indicating a stable financial structure [4][10]
晶丰明源(688368):计算能源IC放量,拟收购易冲强化协同
China Post Securities· 2026-02-11 05:50
证券研究报告:电子 电子 | 公司点评报告 发布时间:2026-02-11 股票投资评级 买入 |维持 个股表现 2025-02 2025-04 2025-07 2025-09 2025-11 2026-02 -17% -6% 5% 16% 27% 38% 49% 60% 71% 82% 93% 晶丰明源 电子 资料来源:聚源,中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价(元) | 136.94 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本(亿股)0.89 | / 0.89 | | 总市值/流通市值(亿元)121 | / 121 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 170.59 / 80.84 | | 资产负债率(%) | 38.7% | | 市盈率 | -360.37 | | 第一大股东 | 胡黎强 | 公司发布 2025 年业绩预告,预计 2025 年实现营业收入 15.7 亿,同比增长 4.41%%;归母净利润 0.36 亿元,同比上升 208.92%。 l 投资要点 营收稳步增长,盈利能力持续提升。2025 年公司业务保持良好 发展态势,实现营业收入 15.7 亿,同比增长 4.41%%;归母 ...
大厂积极备战春晚,入口之争引领AI行情
China Post Securities· 2026-02-11 03:08
证券研究报告:计算机|点评报告 发布时间:2026-02-11 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 5546.12 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 6151.34 | | 52 | 周最低 | 4080.58 | 行业相对指数表现(相对值) -20% -16% -12% -8% -4% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% 2025-02 2025-04 2025-07 2025-09 2025-11 2026-02 计算机 沪深300 资料来源:聚源,中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:李佩京 SAC 登记编号:S1340525080003 Email:lipeijing@cnpsec.com 分析师:王思 SAC 登记编号:S1340525080002 Email:wangsi1@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《AI for Science,重在 AI+制药赛 道》 - 2026.01.15 大厂积极备战春晚,入口之争引领 AI 行情 ⚫ 国内 CSP 大厂抢占春节级流量,"超级入口之争"有望成 为 26 年 AI 主旋律 2026 ...
2026年一号文点评报告:现代化为矛,稳定生产为盾
China Post Securities· 2026-02-11 02:29
Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of modernizing agriculture while ensuring stable production as a shield for food security. The 2026 Central Document sets a target for grain production to remain around 1.4 trillion jin, highlighting the need for quality and efficiency improvements in agricultural production [4][6] - The focus on breeding has shifted from research to industrial application, indicating a faster pace in the commercialization of biobreeding technologies [4] - Comprehensive regulation of the livestock industry is emphasized, with a shift from monitoring pig production capacity to a more integrated approach across the entire supply chain [4][8] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is 2936.45, with a 52-week high of 3158.8 and a low of 2448.98 [1] Key Policy Developments - The 2026 Central Document outlines six key areas for agricultural and rural modernization, including enhancing agricultural production capacity, promoting stable income for farmers, and innovating institutional mechanisms [3][4] Investment Recommendations - In the seed industry, the report suggests focusing on companies with strong breeding advantages such as Longping High-Tech, Denghai Seeds, and Shennong Seeds due to the anticipated restructuring and increased market concentration [6] - For the livestock sector, it recommends monitoring leading companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, as there is still room for production capacity adjustments [8] - The report highlights the potential benefits for smart agricultural machinery and related industries due to the emphasis on developing new agricultural production capabilities [8]
海外宏观周报:日本大选获胜提振风险资产情绪
China Post Securities· 2026-02-11 02:25
Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - Japan's recent election resulted in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) winning over two-thirds of the seats, boosting the Nikkei 225 index to a historical high, indicating strong legislative support for fiscal stimulus measures[2] - The upcoming January CPI data in the U.S. is expected to show a rebound due to seasonal effects, with a potential increase in the month-on-month rate[2] - The U.S. job market shows signs of loosening, with initial jobless claims remaining low but rising layoffs and declining job vacancies indicating potential risks[3] Group 2: Market Trends and Recommendations - The U.S. software sector has underperformed since the beginning of 2026, but signs suggest that the sell-off may have peaked, with increased trading volume and volatility indicating a potential stabilization[3] - Caution is advised in selecting stocks within the software sector, focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and rapid transformation progress[3] - The market is pricing in two additional rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within the year, reflecting expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy[24] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include increased tariffs leading to higher goods inflation, insufficient cooling of service inflation, and geopolitical tensions driving up energy prices, which could limit the Fed's ability to ease monetary policy[4][25] - The Federal Reserve's stance remains cautious, with officials emphasizing the need for clear evidence of inflation decline before making further policy adjustments[21][23]
海外宏观周报:日本大选获胜提振风险资产情绪-20260211
China Post Securities· 2026-02-11 01:34
证券研究报告:宏观报告 发布时间:2026-02-11 研究所 分析师:李起 SAC 登记编号:S1340524110001 Email:liqi2@cnpsec.com 研究助理:高晓洁 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020001 Email:gaoxiaojie@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《海外宏观周报:降息或先行,缩表存 约束》 - 2026.02.03 宏观观点 海外宏观周报:日本大选获胜提振风险资产情绪 ⚫ 核心观点: 上周末,日本举行第 51 届国会众议院选举,首相高市早苗领导 的自民党(LDP)在众议院取得压倒性胜利后,日经 225 指数大幅上 涨至历史新高。自民党获得超过三分之二席次,是该党派成立以来最 强势的表现,为高市政府提供了充足的立法空间,以推进扩大财政刺 激、暂停食品消费税等政策承诺。 美国方面,受残余季节性影响,即企业通常倾向于在年初调整价 格,但季调因子无法完全剔除这一季节性,年初 CPI 环比读数可能偏 高。因此,本周即将公布的 1 月美国 CPI 环比增速预计将有所反弹。 年初就业数据同样受季节性影响,往往保持稳健,初请失业金人 数通常处于低位。近期挑战者裁员人 ...
广钢气体:强芯铸屏,共谋未来-20260211
China Post Securities· 2026-02-10 13:25
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1] Core Insights - The company's electronic bulk gas business revenue share continues to increase, reaching 77.1% in the first three quarters of 2025, with on-site gas production accounting for 61.6% and retail gas accounting for 15.5% [3] - The company is expanding into high-tech and new productivity sectors, with projected revenue of 2.424 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15.26%, and a net profit of 286 million yuan, also up 15.39% [3] - The domestic electronic bulk gas market is expected to maintain a "1+3" competitive landscape, with quality customer development driving gas demand growth and repeat purchases [3] - The company has secured multiple new orders in 2025, benefiting from stable operations and technological advancements, which are key factors for revenue and profit growth [4] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.4 billion yuan, 2.9 billion yuan, and 3.6 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 290 million yuan, 390 million yuan, and 550 million yuan [5] - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth rate of 15.26% in 2025, 20.51% in 2026, and 22.53% in 2027 [9] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.22 yuan, 0.30 yuan, and 0.42 yuan respectively [9]