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瑞声科技(02018):多维感知技术,驱动“AI+终端”进程
China Post Securities· 2025-12-08 10:16
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][9] Core Insights - The company is accelerating the commercialization of AR waveguide technology through the acquisition of Dispelix, which is expected to be completed in the first half of 2026. This acquisition aims to enhance synergies between Dispelix's expertise in waveguide design and the company's strengths in optics and precision manufacturing [3] - The company is collaborating with ByteDance to launch the "Doubao AI Phone," which represents a shift from a "tool" to an "intelligent agent" through advanced AI capabilities [4] - The company is also involved in the development of the Quark AI Glasses S1, which features a high-precision audio pickup system to enhance AI voice interaction experiences [5] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 32.2 billion, 36 billion, and 40 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits of 2.5 billion, 3 billion, and 3.3 billion yuan for the same years [9][11] - The expected growth rates for revenue are 34% for 2025, 18% for 2026, and 12% for 2027, while net profit growth rates are projected at 143% for 2025, 41% for 2026, and 19% for 2027 [11][12]
数量篇:全球流动性处于何种水平?
China Post Securities· 2025-12-08 10:16
证券研究报告:宏观报告 发布时间:2025-12-08 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《价格传导扭曲制约企业利润修复, 非制造业景气度收缩》 - 2025.12.1 宏观研究 全球流动性处于何种水平?---数量篇 核心观点 全球流动性表示为国际金融市场上的融资难易程度。全球流动性 的测度可以从数量和价格两个维度测算。英国金融学家迈克尔·J·豪 厄尔在《资本战争:全球流动性的涨潮》一书中强调,"经济周期是 由资金流-储蓄和信贷的数量驱动的",强调流动性数量维度的重要 性。本篇报告着重从数量维度测算全球流动性,并判断当前全球流动 性处于什么水平。 全球流动性呈现新特征:发达经济体是全球流动性的主导,但主 导性有所弱化;新兴经济体影响力有所提升,特别是中国对全球流动 性的影响力正在显著提升,成为推动全球流动性结构转型的关键力 量,这背后反映了中国经济崛起,人民币与美元、欧元、日元、英镑 的博弈日 ...
有色金属行业报告(2025.12.01-2025.12.05):铜逼仓上行引领金属牛市
China Post Securities· 2025-12-08 07:44
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The report emphasizes a bullish outlook on copper, driven by warehouse cancellations and supply-demand dynamics, suggesting that adjustments in price should be seen as buying opportunities [6] - The report also highlights the performance of precious metals, particularly silver, which has shown volatility but is expected to perform well in the long term due to ongoing de-dollarization trends and ETF inflows [5] - The aluminum market is following copper's upward trend, although it is experiencing seasonal demand weakness [7] - Tin prices are influenced by geopolitical factors, with expectations of long-term supply tightness despite recent price corrections [8] - Tungsten prices are reaching new highs due to supply constraints and export controls, indicating a persistent upward trend in the industry [9] - Investment suggestions include companies such as Shengda Resources, Xingye Silver Tin, Chifeng Gold, Shenhuo Co., and Zijin Mining [10] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 4.30%, ranking second among industry sectors [18] Prices - LME copper rose by 4.38%, aluminum by 1.24%, zinc by 1.56%, lead by 1.41%, and tin by 2.23% during the week [21] Inventory - Global visible copper inventories increased by 8,709 tons, while aluminum saw a decrease of 10,852 tons, indicating varied inventory trends across metals [35][37]
高频数据跟踪:物价持续上行,房地产季节性改善
China Post Securities· 2025-12-08 05:35
研究所 证券研究报告:固定收益报告 发布时间:2025-12-08 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 分析师:崔超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523120001 Email:cuichao@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《货币政策重心转移————2026 年 展望系列四》 - 2025.12.03 固收周报 物价持续上行,房地产季节性改善 ——高频数据跟踪 20251207 核心观点 高频经济数据关注点:第一,生产端热度有所分化,螺纹钢产量、 高炉开工率下降,焦炉开工率持续回升;沥青、汽车轮胎开工率升高, PX 开工率高位回落,PTA 开工率持平。第二,房地产市场季节性改善, 商品房成交面积连续三周增长,百城土地供应面积高位回落。第三, 物价持续回升,原油、焦煤、金属、农产品价格均上涨,其中 LME 铜 期货价格再创历史新高,猪肉价格表现偏弱。第四,波罗的海干散货 指数延续快速上行趋势。短期重点关注消费与投资端增量政策落地及 房地产市场恢复情况。 生产:钢铁产量下降,沥青开工率处于低位 12 月 5 日当周,焦炉 ...
需求逐步进入淡季,期待地产及化债政策落地
China Post Securities· 2025-12-08 05:34
发布时间:2025-12-08 行业投资评级 证券研究报告:建筑材料|行业周报 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | 5252.51 | | 52 周最高 | 5417.39 | | 52 周最低 | 4167.51 | 行业相对指数表现 -11% -8% -5% -2% 1% 4% 7% 10% 13% 16% 19% 2024-12 2025-02 2025-05 2025-07 2025-09 2025-12 建筑材料 沪深300 资料来源:聚源,中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:赵洋 SAC 登记编号:S1340524050002 Email:zhaoyang@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《"反内卷"下拐点渐显,关注出海及 转型机遇》 - 2025.11.26 建材行业报告 (2025.12.01-2025.12.07) 需求逐步进入淡季,期待地产及化债政策落地 投资要点 12 月 2 日,国家发展改革委主任郑栅洁在《党建》杂志发布《深 入学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神,以高质量发展新成效谱写中国 式现代化新篇章》署名文章。文章中提到要提高防范化 ...
机构行为专题三:配置盘的收益兑现和久期压力
China Post Securities· 2025-12-08 05:34
固收专题 证券研究报告:固定收益报告 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 研究助理:谢鹏 SAC 登记编号:S1340124010004 Email:xiepeng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《货币政策重心转移————2026 年 展望系列四》 - 2025.12.03 ⚫ 账户实际变动:一级配置压力和兑现浮盈诉求下的权衡 结果 国有行 AC 账户被动扩容,股份行城商行增配 OCI,农商行 AC 账 户下降。国有大行方面,AC 账户增量均远超前两年同期,说明即使通 过卖出部分债券兑现浮盈,AC 账户在国债和地方政府债配置压力推动 下仍被动扩容。股份行方面,OCI 增量超往年全年增量,说明近年来 股份行配置资产或更多计入 OCI 账户,以满足利润调节诉求。城商行 方面,城商行 OCI 账户增量超过往两年增量之和,目前城商行投资收 益占营收比重已超 20%,卖债力度大幅增加的同时,相关账户仍快速 增加的主因或也是一级配置压力。同时获利了结减持 TPL。农商行方 面,AC 账户则为净流出状态,净流出幅度超过去年 ...
高频数据跟踪 20251207:物价持续上行,房地产季节性改善
China Post Securities· 2025-12-08 05:25
证券研究报告:固定收益报告 发布时间:2025-12-08 12 月 5 日当周,焦炉产能利用率升高 0.62 pct,高炉开工率下 降 0.93 pct,螺纹钢产量减少 16.77 万吨;石油沥青开工率升高 0.1 pct,仍处于低位;化工 PX 开工率下降 0.92 pct,PTA 开工率持平; 汽车全钢胎开工率升高 0.17 pct,半钢胎开工率升高 1.73 pct。 需求:商品房成交持续增长,BDI 指数快速上行 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 分析师:崔超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523120001 Email:cuichao@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《货币政策重心转移————2026 年 展望系列四》 - 2025.12.03 固收周报 物价持续上行,房地产季节性改善 ——高频数据跟踪 20251207 核心观点 高频经济数据关注点:第一,生产端热度有所分化,螺纹钢产量、 高炉开工率下降,焦炉开工率持续回升;沥青、汽车轮胎开工率升高, PX 开工率高位回落,PTA 开工率持平。第二 ...
流动性周报:30年国债超跌了吗?-20251208
China Post Securities· 2025-12-08 04:55
证券研究报告:固定收益报告 发布时间:2025-12-08 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《货币政策重心转移————2026 年 展望系列四》 - 2025.12.03 固收周报 30 年国债超跌了吗? ——流动性周报 20251207 l 30 年国债交易的至暗时刻,也是配置的良机 观点回顾:以机构心态视角来看,年末对收益的诉求普遍偏弱, 明年一季度理财类机构和保险机构存在抢筹的意愿。年内债市行情限 于区间震荡的局面可能不易改变,年末时点存在提前抢筹、行情升温 的契机。 从期限利差视角,30 减 10 的期限利差再次回到近年高位,虽然 很难判断超长债期限利差的合理水平,因为超长期政府债的发行压力 始终存在,但是在居民部门加杠杆之前,风险偏好的修复很难驱动超 长端期限利差回到更高的位置。 从利率比价视角,扣除税收之后的 30 年国债收益率和房贷利率 之间已经持平,以央行对不倒挂的要求出发,30 年国债收益率不应再 大幅上行。虽然这种比较关系并非严格有效,但依然可以作为定价参 考; 研究所 从机构行为视角 ...
固态电池系列专题:什么是等静压设备?
China Post Securities· 2025-12-05 12:28
证券研究报告:机械设备|深度报告 行业投资评级 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 1988.9 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 2110.66 | | 52 | 周最低 | 1420.7 | 行业相对指数表现(相对值) 2024-12 2025-02 2025-04 2025-07 2025-09 2025-11 -12% -8% -4% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% 24% 28% 机械设备 沪深300 资料来源:聚源,中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:刘卓 SAC 登记编号:S1340522110001 Email:liuzhuo@cnpsec.com 分析师:虞洁攀 SAC 登记编号:S1340523050002 Email:yujiepan@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《商业化项目持续落地,行业迅速扩 容》 - 2025.09.30 固态电池系列专题:什么是等静压设备? 强于大市 |维持 l 投资要点 问题一:何为等静压设备? 等静压技术是基于 "帕斯卡定律",与传统单向或双向机械压机 不同,等静压设备的技术精髓在于"等静"二字,即样品在各个方 ...
新金路(000510):栗木矿业如期推进,多元化战略卓有成效
China Post Securities· 2025-12-05 06:59
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2]. Core Insights - The company is actively advancing its mining project and diversifying its business strategy, which is expected to mitigate cyclical fluctuations [5][9]. - The company’s main business is chlor-alkali chemicals, with a focus on PVC resin, alkali products, and calcium carbide, while also expanding into mineral resource development [5][14]. - The company has successfully integrated the mining operations of the subsidiary, Lijiang Mining, which is rich in tantalum, niobium, tin, and tungsten resources [6][18]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The latest closing price is 10.03 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 6.5 billion yuan [4]. - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 46.7% and a negative P/E ratio of -99.80 [4]. Mining Project Progress - The 600,000 tons per annum mining reconstruction project is progressing as planned, with significant milestones achieved, including the successful installation of the shaft frame [7][19]. - The mining project is expected to generate annual revenues of approximately 420 million yuan from various mineral products [19]. Resource Potential - The Lijiang Mining area has substantial mineral reserves, including 52.89 million tons of ore and significant quantities of tin, tungsten, tantalum, and niobium [6][18]. - The tailings from the mining operations also present a significant potential for recovery of valuable metals [6][18]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 1.767 billion, 1.884 billion, and 2.703 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of -117.3 million, 62.43 million, and 406 million yuan [11][12]. - The company expects to achieve a significant increase in earnings per share (EPS) from -0.18 in 2025 to 0.63 in 2027 [11]. Strategic Development - The company plans to establish a circular economy industrial park by 2030, aiming for an industrial output value exceeding 2.3 billion yuan [9][20]. - The high-purity quartz sand project is also underway, targeting high-end applications in semiconductors and other advanced fields, with initial sales already recorded [23][25].