Investment Rating - The report rates the pharmaceutical industry as "Overweight," indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [4][24]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector saw a weekly increase of 1.1%, with the overall valuation at 23.5 times PE for 2025E, ranking 7th among 31 primary industries [4][10]. - The government work report emphasizes support for innovative drug development and the cultivation of future industries such as biomanufacturing [12]. - Huawei has established a healthcare division focused on AI-assisted diagnostic solutions, enhancing clinical applications of medical models [13]. - The Chinese government has prohibited Illumina, a leading global gene sequencing company, from exporting gene sequencing instruments to China [14]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies in traditional Chinese medicine, pharmaceutical commerce, and AI healthcare collaborations [4]. Market Performance - The pharmaceutical index increased by 1.1% this week, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.6% and the Wind All A Index (excluding finance and petrochemicals) increased by 2.7% [5][4]. - Within the pharmaceutical sector, the performance of various sub-sectors varied, with raw materials up by 2.1% and medical equipment down by 0.1% [7]. Key Events - The government work report on March 5 highlighted the importance of the "three medical linkages" and proposed reforms to enhance public hospital services and resource distribution [12]. - The establishment of Huawei's healthcare division aims to leverage AI technology for improved diagnostic capabilities [13]. - The ban on Illumina's exports is expected to impact the gene sequencing market significantly [14]. Valuation and Recommendations - The overall valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is noted at 23.5 times PE for 2025E, with specific companies recommended for investment based on their market positions and growth potential [10][17]. - Suggested stocks include traditional Chinese medicine firms and companies involved in AI healthcare solutions [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the utility and environmental sectors, particularly in renewable energy and natural gas [1]. Core Insights - The 2025 Energy Work Guidance emphasizes the transition to a green and low-carbon energy system, with specific targets for renewable energy generation and consumption [3][6]. - The 2025 Government Work Report highlights a 3% reduction in energy consumption per unit of GDP and the importance of controlling high-energy-consuming projects [8]. - The new pipeline gas contracts from PetroChina are expected to lower costs for coastal provinces, with adjustments in gas supply ratios [34]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity: Steady Leadership in Green Low-Carbon Transition - The 2025 Energy Work Guidance sets goals for energy production, including a total installed capacity of over 3.6 billion kilowatts and an increase of over 200 million kilowatts in new renewable energy capacity [3][6]. - Non-fossil energy generation is targeted to reach 60% of total installed capacity, with a 20% share in total energy consumption [6][7]. 2. Natural Gas: Fluctuating International Prices - International gas prices have shown mixed trends, with U.S. Henry Hub prices rising by 14.74% to $4.40/mmBtu, while European prices have decreased [11][12]. - The new gas contracts for 2025/26 include changes that favor coastal regions, potentially reducing overall gas costs [34][35]. 3. Investment Analysis - Recommendations include focusing on hydropower companies like Changjiang Power and Guotou Power, as well as nuclear power firms such as China National Nuclear Power [9][10]. - For natural gas, the report suggests investing in integrated gas trading companies like New Hope Energy and New Tian Green Energy [36]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - The report notes that the National Energy Administration is focused on stabilizing coal production and ensuring energy supply during the 14th Five-Year Plan [46][47]. - Recent announcements from companies like Longjing Environmental and China Three Gorges Energy highlight ongoing projects and strategic developments in the sector [48].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the defense and military industry, suggesting an increase in focus on this sector [3][5]. Core Insights - The government report emphasizes the acceleration of new combat capabilities and military construction as the "14th Five-Year Plan" concludes, indicating a new growth cycle for high-end military capabilities [2][5]. - The defense budget is projected to grow by 7.2%, reinforcing the expectation of continued high-speed growth in the military sector [5]. - The report highlights the transition towards intelligent and unmanned military capabilities, with AI and robotics expected to be core components of new combat power [5]. - The commercial aerospace sector is being repositioned as a strategic emerging industry, suggesting a favorable investment window [5]. - Key investment themes include high-end military capabilities and new combat power, with specific focus on precision-guided weapons, underwater equipment, and AI/robotics [5]. Market Performance - Last week, the Shenwan Defense and Military Index rose by 6.96%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 1.56% [3][6]. - The average increase for the civil-military integration index was 9.05%, indicating strong performance in this segment [3][6]. - Top-performing stocks in the defense sector included Plittech (up 38.12%) and Xuanji Information (up 20.77%) [3][13]. Valuation Changes - The current PE-TTM for the Shenwan Defense sector is 69.10, indicating it is in the upper range historically [14][20]. - The report notes a divergence in valuations among sub-sectors, with aerospace and aviation equipment showing relatively high PE valuations [14][20]. Key Investment Targets - Recommended stocks for high-end military capabilities include Feilihua, AVIC Electrics, and AVIC Xi'an Aircraft [5][20]. - For new combat power, suggested targets include Chengdu Huamei and Aerospace Electronics [5][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the home appliance industry, particularly focusing on the white goods sector due to favorable policies and market conditions [4][7]. Core Insights - The report identifies three main investment themes: domestic sales driven by the "old-for-new" policy, strong export growth, and increased demand for core components in the white goods sector [5][6]. - The "old-for-new" policy has shown significant effects, with domestic sales expected to benefit from government initiatives aimed at boosting consumption [5][19]. - The report highlights the resilience of the white goods sector, with companies like Midea, Haier, Gree, and Hisense recommended for investment due to their strong market positions and growth potential [5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Sector Review - Demand has significantly improved, and valuations have rebounded from their lows, indicating a recovery in the home appliance sector [7][36]. 2. Trend Analysis - The combination of domestic policy support and opportunities in emerging markets is expected to create a favorable environment for the industry in 2025 [7][44]. 3. Sector Recommendations - The white goods sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, with a focus on companies that are well-positioned to capitalize on both domestic and international demand [7][44]. 4. Stock Recommendations - Specific stocks recommended include Midea, Haier, Gree, and Hisense in the white goods segment, as well as companies like Ousheng Electric and Dechang Co. in the export market [5][6][22]. 5. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the white goods sector is experiencing a resurgence in both domestic and export markets, with significant growth in air conditioning and washing machine sales [22][23].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the industry, indicating a "Buy" rating for the securities sector due to the anticipated shift in asset allocation from bonds to equities [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant transformation in the asset allocation strategies of securities firms, with a notable shift towards equities to enhance performance elasticity while reducing reliance on long-duration bonds [3][4]. - It emphasizes that the self-operated investment business remains the primary direction for leverage expansion, as the capital intermediary business faces limitations due to external demand and regulatory policies [21][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Securities Firms' Balance Sheet: Continuous Expansion - Since 2019, securities firms have experienced a stable and sustained expansion of their balance sheets, with total assets growing at a CAGR of 13% from 1H19 to 2023 [2][13]. - The self-operated investment and credit business are identified as the main drivers of this expansion, contributing significantly to the overall asset growth [15][25]. 2. Changes in Self-Operated Asset Allocation - The report notes a decline in the proportion of trading financial assets, while investments in other debt and equity instruments are on the rise. From 1H19 to 1H24, the scale of financial investment assets increased from 3.1 trillion to 6.3 trillion yuan, achieving a CAGR of 15% [2][26]. - The allocation of self-operated assets is shifting towards a more balanced configuration between credit bonds and interest rate bonds, with the latter becoming increasingly significant [31][37]. 3. Impact of Different Allocation Structures on Performance - The report reviews the performance of securities firms under various monetary cycles from 2019 to 1H24, indicating that firms with higher equity exposure performed better during periods of loose monetary policy [42]. - It also discusses the implications of the current monetary policy environment, suggesting that the elasticity of the equity market is expected to be greater than that of the bond market in 2025 [5][39]. 4. Future Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the securities industry is likely to enter a new upward cycle in 2025, driven by regulatory reforms and a stable investment environment [3][4]. - It recommends focusing on leading securities firms that are expected to benefit from supply-side reforms, such as CITIC Securities and China Galaxy Securities, while also highlighting firms involved in mergers and acquisitions [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment outlook for the social service sector, particularly focusing on AI-enabled services and recovery in travel and tourism [2][4]. Core Insights - The integration of AI in human resource services is expected to enhance efficiency and reduce costs, with AI matching accuracy comparable to mid-level consultants [6][54]. - The recovery of business travel and leisure tourism is anticipated to provide significant short-term stock price elasticity [6][8]. - The report highlights the potential for mergers and acquisitions in the tourism sector, particularly among cultural tourism groups [6][20]. Summary by Sections Tourism Sector - Focus on low-altitude applications and mergers and acquisitions [8][41]. - The silver economy is projected to grow significantly, with travel and leisure becoming a major expenditure category for the "new silver" demographic [11][9]. - Domestic cultural tourism assets are scarce, with stable ROE and strong profitability in ticketing and transportation services [11][12]. Hotel Industry - Business travel recovery is expected to bring short-term elasticity to hotel stocks, with a slow exit of hotel supply maintaining a supply-demand imbalance [6][8]. - The hotel investment market is seeing active participation from high-net-worth individuals and state-owned enterprises, with a notable trend towards consolidation [26][24]. - The report indicates a slowdown in new hotel supply, with a projected increase of 27.26 million rooms over the next five years, primarily in first-tier and new first-tier cities [26][24]. Duty-Free and Tax-Free Shopping - The long-term outlook for the duty-free market is positive, with expected growth driven by policy reforms and increased international travel [44][45]. - The report notes a narrowing decline in duty-free sales, with a projected recovery in consumer spending as travel restrictions ease [44][45]. - The expansion of duty-free shopping in Hainan is anticipated to enhance the overall market landscape [44][49]. Professional Services - The application of AI in professional services is expected to lead the sector's recovery, with significant advancements in recruitment processes through automation and intelligent matching systems [55][56]. - The demand for AI talent is projected to reach 6 million by 2030, highlighting a significant gap in supply [55][56]. - The report emphasizes the importance of AI in transforming recruitment practices, with companies leveraging AI technologies to improve efficiency and reduce costs [55][56].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Insights - The company, Laopu Gold, is positioned as a leading brand in traditional gold jewelry, experiencing significant growth driven by high-end consumer demand and cultural trends [4][6]. - Laopu Gold's revenue for 2023 reached 3.18 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 145.7%, while net profit surged by 340% to 420 million CNY [4][31]. - The report anticipates net profits of 1.44 billion CNY, 2.72 billion CNY, and 3.66 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 67, 36, and 26 [6]. Summary by Sections 1. High-End Gold Brand Development - Laopu Gold has established a unique position in the traditional gold market since its inception in 2009, focusing on high-end gold products and leveraging cultural elements [21][22]. - The company has expanded its market presence by opening stores in high-end shopping districts and enhancing its online sales channels [21]. 2. Growth of Traditional Gold Consumption - The traditional gold market has seen a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 64.6% from 2018 to 2023, with expectations to reach 421.4 billion CNY by 2028 [4][50]. - The demand for high-end gold products is expected to continue growing, driven by cultural trends and consumer preferences for luxury items [50][55]. 3. Competitive Advantages and Market Position - Laopu Gold's strategy focuses on high-quality craftsmanship and a unique shopping experience, which helps differentiate it from international luxury brands [4][6]. - The company has a strong brand recognition among high-net-worth individuals, contributing to its competitive edge in the high-end jewelry market [4][22]. 4. Future Growth Potential - The report outlines a robust store expansion plan, projecting the number of stores to reach 37, 44, and 50 by the end of 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [7]. - Laopu Gold aims to enhance its brand influence and penetrate international markets, particularly in regions with significant Chinese populations [4][6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (看好) indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [11]. Core Insights - The BC battery technology shows promising conversion efficiency and reliable product quality, with Hi-MO9 components demonstrating a 7.74% higher cumulative power generation compared to TOPCon components [5]. - The penetration rate of BC batteries is expected to increase due to multiple factors, including improved battery conversion efficiency, cost reductions from economies of scale, and advancements in technology and processes [5]. - The value of equipment for BC batteries is high, particularly in laser, thermal processing, and coating equipment, which are expected to benefit significantly from the growth in BC battery production [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The Hi-MO9 component using BC second-generation technology has shown a 1.01% increase in power generation capability per kilowatt compared to TOPCon, with daily peaks reaching 1.73% [5]. - The total power generation of Hi-MO9 components was 1260.59 kWh, surpassing TOPCon's 1170.03 kWh [5]. Market Drivers - The production efficiency of HPBC2.0 batteries has exceeded 26.6%, with expectations for further improvements [5]. - Cost reductions are anticipated as BC production scales up, alongside ongoing research into cost-cutting technologies [5]. Key Companies - Notable companies in the sector include: - **Dier Laser (帝尔激光)**: A core supplier of laser equipment for photovoltaic applications, with a comprehensive technology layout and ongoing orders from leading companies [5]. - **Haimu Star (海目星)**: Focused on laser and automation, has developed BC large spot laser opening equipment [5]. - **Inno Laser (英诺激光)**: Emerging player in laser equipment with successful mass production verification for efficiency-enhancing devices [5]. - **Laplace (拉普拉斯)**: Core supplier of thermal processing and coating equipment for XBC battery production lines, collaborating with major companies [5]. Valuation Metrics - The valuation metrics for key companies are as follows: - Dier Laser: Market cap of 179.97 billion, projected net profit for 2025 is 7.39 billion with a PE ratio of 24 [6]. - Haimu Star: Market cap of 81.77 billion, projected net profit for 2025 is 3.78 billion with a PE ratio of 22 [6]. - Inno Laser: Market cap of 45.78 billion, projected net profit for 2025 is 0.48 billion with a PE ratio of 95 [6]. - Laplace: Market cap of 200.31 billion, projected net profit for 2025 is 7.81 billion with a PE ratio of 26 [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [3][30]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the real estate market is stabilizing, with a focus on policies aimed at promoting healthy development. The government has set a GDP growth target of around 5% for the year and plans to implement a moderately loose monetary policy [3][30]. - New home sales in 34 key cities totaled 215,300 square meters for the week, reflecting a 27% decrease from the previous week, while second-hand home sales increased by 8% [3][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of city-specific policies to stimulate housing demand and improve market conditions, including the introduction of special bonds for local governments [30][31]. Summary by Sections Industry Data - New home sales in 34 cities decreased by 27% week-on-week, with first and second-tier cities also experiencing a 27% decline [4][6]. - Year-on-year, new home sales in March showed a slight increase of 0.1%, with first and second-tier cities up by 5% and third and fourth-tier cities down by 32% [3][6]. - Second-hand home sales in 13 cities increased by 63% year-on-year, with a total of 149,800 square meters sold in the last week [11][12]. Policy and News Tracking - The government is focusing on stabilizing the real estate market, with plans to reduce restrictive measures and promote urban village and dilapidated housing renovations [30][31]. - Local governments are expected to issue 4.4 trillion yuan in special bonds to support investment in construction and land acquisition [30][31]. - Specific measures include lowering down payment requirements for second homes and extending loan terms for housing funds [30][31]. Company Dynamics - Major companies like Longfor and Yuexiu are forecasting significant declines in profits for 2024, with Longfor's core profit expected to drop by 35%-40% [3][30]. - Sales figures for February show a recovery in sales for several companies, with China Overseas Development reporting a 55% increase year-on-year [3][30]. - The report notes ongoing financing activities, including bond issuances by Tianjian Group and Chengjian Development [3][30]. Weekly Sector Review - The real estate sector underperformed the market, with the SW Real Estate Index down by 0.91%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose by 1.39% [3][30]. - The property management sector outperformed, with an average increase of 1.79% [3][30]. - Current average PE ratios for leading A/H listed real estate companies are 10.8 for 2024 and 10.0 for 2025, while property management companies average 14 for 2024 and 12 for 2025 [3][30].

行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 证券分析师 林起贤 A0230519060002 linqx@swsresearch.com 袁伟嘉 A0230519080013 yuanwj@swsresearch.com 任梦妮 A0230521100005 renmn@swsresearch.com 夏嘉励 A0230522090001 xiajl@swsresearch.com 赵航 A0230522100002 zhaohang@swsresearch.com 研究支持 黄俊儒 A0230123070011 huangjr@swsresearch.com 联系人 林起贤 (8621)23297818× linqx@swsresearch.com 2025 年 03 月 09 日 AI 视频、AI 玩具、Agent 进展 快；高分红关注分众传媒 看好 ——互联网传媒周报 本期投资提示： ⚫ Deepseek 不仅带动云需求重回增长，其高利润率也说明互联网云厂商的规模优势。 DeepSeek 3 月 1 日公布其最新的 V3/R1 推理系统的设计与实现细节，若所有请求都按 R1 定价收费，理论利 ...