Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company's performance has declined, with a stable growth in sales ranking despite a significant drop in revenue and net profit [6] - The real estate division has seen a profit margin at its lowest, yet the sales ranking continues to improve [6] - The supply chain division's revenue has decreased, but profitability is stabilizing due to strategic focus [6] Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price as of August 30, 2024: 7.29 CNY - Market capitalization: 21,138 million CNY - Price-to-book ratio: 0.4 - Dividend yield: 9.60% [3][4] Financial Performance - H1 2024 revenue: 319.01 billion CNY, down 16.8% YoY - H1 2024 net profit: 1.20 billion CNY, down 37.7% YoY - H1 2024 earnings per share: 0.33 CNY, down 41.1% YoY - Comprehensive gross margin: 4.8%, up 2.0 percentage points YoY [6][8] Business Segments Real Estate - H1 2024 revenue: 51.2 billion CNY, up 55.6% YoY - H1 2024 net profit: 1.6 billion CNY, down 1.9% YoY - Sales amount: 74.27 billion CNY, down 40.3% YoY, with a collection rate of 97% [6] Supply Chain - H1 2024 revenue: 263.6 billion CNY, down 24.8% YoY - H1 2024 net profit: 14.1 billion CNY, down 11.0% YoY - International business accounted for approximately 40% of supply chain operations [6] Investment Analysis - The company is expected to face challenges in the real estate sector, but its overall performance remains positive with a stable dividend yield [6] - The forecast for net profit for 2024-2026 has been adjusted to 3.83 billion, 4.07 billion, and 4.25 billion CNY respectively, reflecting a significant decrease from previous estimates [6][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company focuses on cash recovery in development while maintaining steady growth in its shopping mall business. Despite a decline in real estate sales and overall performance, the shopping mall revenue shows stable growth, and the company's financing safety has improved [6][8] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 33.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.32 billion yuan, down 42.2% year-on-year. The basic earnings per share were 0.58 yuan, a decline of 42.6% [6][9] - The gross margin for the first half of 2024 was 21.6%, with net profit margin and deductive net profit margin both at 3.9% [6] - The company’s pre-sales amounted to 95 billion yuan, a decrease of 40% year-on-year, which is 80% of the total revenue for the year 2023 [6] Sales and Operational Metrics - The company achieved sales of 23.55 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, down 44.5% year-on-year, with a sales area of 3.26 million square meters, a decrease of 36.9% [6] - The average selling price was 7,220 yuan per square meter, down 12% year-on-year. The company ranked 20th in sales amount and 9th in sales area nationwide [6] - The company’s shopping mall business generated a rental income of 6.21 billion yuan, an increase of 19.6% year-on-year, with an occupancy rate of 97.24% [6] Debt and Financing - The company is classified under the yellow category of the "three red lines" policy, with a net debt ratio of 49% and a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 0.97 times [6] - As of the end of the first half of 2024, the company had total interest-bearing debt of 55.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.1% year-on-year [6] Future Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for 2024 and 2025 has been adjusted downwards to 1.54 billion yuan and 1.60 billion yuan respectively, with a new estimate for 2026 at 1.68 billion yuan. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratio for 2024 is projected to be 15 times [6][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the internet e-commerce industry, particularly highlighting Alibaba's dual listing in Hong Kong and its potential to improve liquidity and shareholder returns [2][9]. Core Insights - Alibaba's dual primary listing in Hong Kong is expected to enhance liquidity, with the company potentially being included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect by September 9, 2024. This is anticipated to lead to marginal improvements in liquidity and increased shareholder returns through ongoing stock buybacks [2][9]. - The Taotian Group, a core asset within Alibaba's ecosystem, is focusing on enhancing user experience and is expected to accelerate its commercialization process. The group aims to return to GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) as a core metric for traffic allocation, targeting high-value VIP customers and improving the platform's ecosystem by integrating small and medium-sized merchants [2][9]. - Alibaba Cloud is positioned as a leading global cloud service provider, with a comprehensive IaaS+PaaS+MaaS product system. The cloud business is expected to see double-digit growth in external commercialization revenue in the second half of FY25, driven by significant investments in AI and a substantial increase in paid users [3][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Alibaba's Dual Listing and Market Performance - The Alibaba dual listing in Hong Kong has officially taken effect, with expectations for liquidity improvements. The company has been actively repurchasing shares, with a total of 1.249 billion shares repurchased in FY24, amounting to $12.5 billion, and an additional $5.8 billion in FY25 Q1 [2][9]. - The retail sector index grew by 3.29% from August 26 to August 30, 2024, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.46 percentage points, ranking 7th among Shenwan's primary industries [19]. 2. Taotian Group's Growth Strategy - Taotian Group is enhancing user experience and focusing on GMV growth, with plans to introduce new commercialization tools in the second half of FY25. The group aims to increase the willingness of small and medium-sized merchants to pay for services, potentially unlocking new revenue streams [2][9]. 3. Alibaba Cloud's Market Position - Alibaba Cloud continues to lead in market share and is expected to strengthen its core product offerings in public cloud services. The AI platform has seen a more than 200% increase in paid users quarter-over-quarter, with AI-related product revenues achieving triple-digit growth [3][10]. 4. Industry Trends and Company Updates - The report highlights the overall stability in the retail and social services sectors, with notable stock performances in the retail sector, including significant gains for companies like Gaoxin Retail and Central Market [19][25]. - The report also notes the ongoing efforts of major Chinese internet companies to enhance shareholder returns through stock buybacks and dividends, reflecting a strong financial position and confidence in future growth [2][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Dongpeng Beverage, indicating a positive outlook on the company's performance and growth potential [5][6]. Core Views - Dongpeng Beverage has successfully accelerated its national expansion and is witnessing significant growth in its second growth curve, particularly with its "Brewed Water" product line [6]. - The company reported a strong financial performance for the first half of 2024, with total revenue reaching 7.873 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.731 billion yuan, up 56.2% [5][8]. - The company is transitioning from a single product focus to a multi-category platform, with its flagship energy drink, Dongpeng Special Drink, accounting for 87.19% of revenue, reflecting a decrease in reliance on a single market [6]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2024, Dongpeng Beverage achieved a gross profit margin of 44.6%, an increase of 3.3 percentage points year-on-year, driven by a decline in raw material prices [7]. - The company forecasts net profits of 3 billion yuan, 3.759 billion yuan, and 4.538 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 46.8%, 25.5%, and 20.7% [8][9]. - The report highlights a significant increase in the number of sales outlets, reaching 3.6 million, indicating a robust distribution network across the country [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the internet and media industry, indicating a "Look Favorably" investment rating for the sector [3]. Core Insights - The A-share media sector experienced a revenue growth of 2% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, but net profit declined by 31% [3][6]. - The gaming sector is showing signs of recovery driven by new product launches, with a 3% quarter-on-quarter growth in Q2 2024 despite a year-on-year decline [3][12]. - The publishing sector remains stable, with local state-owned publishing groups showing positive growth in their core publishing and distribution businesses [3][4]. - The advertising sector is under pressure, but short video platforms and trading platforms are performing relatively well [4][6]. Summary by Sections A-share Media - In the first half of 2024, the A-share SW media sector achieved a revenue of 244.8 billion yuan, a 2% increase year-on-year, while the net profit was 16.8 billion yuan, down 31% [6][9]. - The revenue growth rate has been slowing down, with Q2 2024 showing a 0% growth compared to the previous year [9][10]. Gaming - The gaming sector's revenue in Q2 2024 grew by 3% quarter-on-quarter, driven by new game launches, despite a year-on-year decline [3][12]. - Major companies like Tencent and NetEase are seeing growth due to successful new releases, while some companies are still waiting for their product cycles to turn around [12][14]. Publishing - The education publishing sector is stable, with many local state-owned publishing companies reporting positive growth in their core businesses [3][4]. - The overall net profit for publishing companies has declined due to the non-renewal of tax exemption policies, but total profits have shown positive growth [3][4]. Advertising - The advertising sector is facing challenges, but platforms like Tencent Video, Kuaishou, and Bilibili are performing well [4][6]. - Despite a slowdown in revenue growth, companies like Pinduoduo and Meituan are maintaining over 15% revenue growth [4][6]. Internet Companies - Internet companies are experiencing a slowdown in revenue growth but are seeing improvements in profit margins due to cost-cutting measures [4][6]. - Companies like Alibaba and JD.com are actively repurchasing shares, indicating strong shareholder returns [4][6].

行 业 及 产 业 证券分析师 戴文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj@swsresearch.com 樊夏沛 A0230523080004 fanxp@swsresearch.com 联系人 邵翼 (8621)23297818× shaoyi@swsresearch.com ⚫ 核心风险：原材料价格波动风险，地缘政治风险，行业复苏不及预期 2024 年 09 月 01 日 金九银十新车迭出，地方政策加码 继续强化结构性机会 看好 ——2024/8/24-2024/8/30 汽车周报 本期投资提示： ⚫ 观点：8 月销量在全国以旧换新政策的作用下已经出现明显回暖，而各地自己的置换政 策也陆续出台，进一步刺激新车需求释放。金九银十前夕，主机厂也纷纷推出新车抢占 市场，成都车展参展车型 60%为自主品牌，80%为中国制造。我们对下半年自主品牌 受益需求恢复抱有乐观态度。站在当下时点，诸多优秀的企业仍然保持高增，且估值已 经到合理或被低估的状态，尤其伴随下半年政策加码，以及我国诸多企业在海外扩张加 速，业绩兑现能力强劲；我们看好具备强α的企业后续基于业绩增长的股价修复，以及 智能化变革带来的颠覆性机会，建 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the petrochemical industry, indicating potential for recovery in the PTA market during the upcoming peak season [3][4]. Core Insights - PTA prices have been under pressure since July, reaching a two-year low of 5262 CNY/ton as of August 30, with a slight decrease of 18 CNY/ton week-on-week. However, there is an expectation for demand recovery as the peak season approaches [4][6]. - The upstream sector is experiencing a rise in oil prices, with Brent crude closing at 78.80 USD/barrel, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.28% week-on-week. The report anticipates a sustained high-level fluctuation in oil prices, which could benefit the oil service sector [4][19]. - The refining sector is seeing mixed results, with a decline in overseas refined oil crack spreads, while olefin price spreads show varied trends. The report suggests that refining profitability may improve as the economy recovers [4][42]. Summary by Sections PTA Market - PTA prices have dropped significantly, with a current settlement price of 5262 CNY/ton, down 18 CNY/ton from the previous week. The supply side has seen an increase in operating rates, reaching 82.94% as of August 30, due to the restart of previously shut-down facilities [4][8]. - Demand from downstream polyester factories has decreased due to high inventory levels, but there are signs of recovery as the peak season approaches, which is expected to improve PTA demand [4][11]. Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices have shown a slight decline, closing at 78.80 USD/barrel, while the NYMEX price was 73.55 USD/barrel. The report notes a decrease in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, which could indicate a tightening market [19][20]. - The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. has decreased to 583, down 2 from the previous week, indicating a potential slowdown in exploration activities [27][30]. Refining Sector - The report highlights a decrease in the Singapore refining margin, which fell to 6.73 USD/barrel, while the U.S. gasoline crack spread increased to 12.87 USD/barrel [42][47]. - Olefin prices have shown mixed trends, with ethylene prices in Northeast Asia rising to 880 USD/ton, while propylene prices have declined to 835 USD/ton [49][51]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-dividend companies in the oil sector, such as China National Offshore Oil Corporation and China Petroleum, as well as quality companies in the refining sector like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical. It also suggests investing in polyester companies like Tongkun Co., Ltd. as demand is expected to recover [16][17].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector [16]. Core Insights - NVIDIA's FY25Q2 performance exceeded expectations with revenue of $30 billion, a year-over-year increase of 122%, and a net profit of $16.6 billion, up 168% year-over-year [3][6]. - The company anticipates significant revenue contributions from the Blackwell platform in FY25Q4, despite delays [4][8]. - The demand side remains stable, with an upward revision of sovereign AI revenue guidance to low double-digit billions [3][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY25Q2 revenue was $30 billion, surpassing the expected $28.9 billion, with a gross margin of 75.1% [3][6]. - Data center revenue reached $26.3 billion, a 154% year-over-year increase, while gaming revenue was $2.88 billion, up 16% [3][6]. - FY25Q3 revenue guidance is set at $32.5 billion, slightly above the consensus of $31.9 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 79% [3][6]. Data Center Updates - Data center computing revenue for FY25Q2 was $22.6 billion, a 162% year-over-year increase [4][8]. - The Hopper platform is expected to compensate for the Blackwell delays, with strong demand anticipated in the second half of the fiscal year [4][8]. - AI Ethernet revenue doubled quarter-over-quarter, contributing to the overall growth in the data center network segment [4][8]. Software Services - Software, SaaS, and support revenue is projected to reach nearly $2 billion in annual recurring revenue by year-end, driven by NVIDIA AI Enterprise [9]. Market Context - Despite NVIDIA's strong performance, the broader semiconductor sector saw declines, with key players like AMD and Micron also experiencing drops in stock prices [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the insurance and brokerage sectors, indicating a "Buy" recommendation for key companies in these industries [3][4]. Core Insights - The insurance sector showed strong performance with a 12.5% year-on-year increase in net profit for A-share listed insurance companies in the first half of 2024, driven by improved investment returns and underwriting profits [3][4]. - The brokerage sector's performance improved sequentially in Q2 2024, with a total net profit of 346 billion yuan, reflecting an 18% quarter-on-quarter growth [3][4]. Summary by Sections Insurance Sector - The Shenyuan Insurance II Index rose by 2.37%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.54 percentage points [3]. - A-share listed insurance companies reported a total net profit of 171.8 billion yuan, significantly exceeding expectations [3]. - The new business value (NBV) for A-share listed insurers increased by 23.4% year-on-year to 744.81 billion yuan, with all companies exceeding expectations [3][4]. - The combined loss ratio (COR) for property insurance improved, with major companies reporting better-than-expected underwriting profits [3]. - The average net investment return for A-share listed insurers increased by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year to 3.4% [3]. Brokerage Sector - The Shenyuan Brokerage Index increased by 1.90%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.07 percentage points [3]. - The total operating income for 43 listed brokerages was 235 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 12.7%, while net profit fell by 22% [3]. - Investment income became a key factor affecting brokerage performance, with major firms like GF Securities and Huatai Securities reporting year-on-year growth in investment returns [3][4]. - The report highlights the ongoing capital market reforms and potential mergers and acquisitions as key investment themes for 2024 [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the coal industry, indicating expectations for the sector to outperform the overall market performance [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the coal prices are expected to fluctuate due to seasonal demand changes and stable supply conditions. The average daily coal inflow and outflow at the ports have decreased, while coal inventories have slightly declined [2][25]. - The report emphasizes the impact of reduced hydropower generation on supporting coal prices, as well as the ongoing international oil price increases affecting coal price dynamics [3][21]. - Key companies recommended for investment include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, Yanzhou Coal, and others, focusing on those with stable operations and high dividends [2]. Summary by Sections Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - The report discusses the release of a white paper on China's energy transition, emphasizing the shift towards green energy and the establishment of a zero-carbon port project [8]. - It notes significant reductions in coal consumption share from 67.4% to 55.3% over the past decade, with a corresponding increase in non-fossil energy sources [8]. Price Trends - Domestic thermal coal prices remained stable, with specific prices reported for various regions as of August 30, 2024. For instance, the price for Datong South District's weak caking coal was 705 CNY/ton [9][11]. - International coal prices showed mixed trends, with Australian Newcastle coal prices decreasing slightly [9][11]. Inventory and Shipping Costs - The report indicates a decrease in coal inventories at the ports, with a total of 23.96 million tons reported as of August 30, 2024, reflecting a slight decline [25]. - Domestic shipping costs have increased, with average freight rates rising by 0.32 CNY/ton [30]. Key Company Valuations - The report provides a valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, highlighting their stock prices, market capitalizations, and earnings projections for the coming years [31].