产 业 行 业 及 - 公用事业/ 电力 2024 年 12 月 10 日 智能电表出口需求持续 欧亚非拉有 望夯实新增长 看好 ——电力设备系列报告之二电表 行 业 研 究/ 行 业 深 度 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 傅浩玮 A0230522010001 fuhw@swsresearch.com 王璐 A0230516080007 wanglu@swsresearch.com 朱栋 A0230522050001 zhudong@swsresearch.com 王艺儒 A0230523110003 wangyr@swsresearch.com 研究支持 傅浩玮 A0230522010001 fuhw@swsresearch.com 联系人 傅浩玮 (8621)23297818× fuhw@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示： ⚫ 电表是电力管理和能源利用的基础，在现代社会中发挥着多重关键作用。电表按工作原理和结构 可以分为多种类型，主要包括机械式电表、电子电表、智能电表等。其中，机械式电表通过机械 齿轮传动驱动计数来表示电功耗；电子电表则采用电子电路进行电能测量，具有更高的测量精 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Viewpoints - The company plans to spin off its real estate business (Yuehai Properties) through a special dividend distribution, allowing it to focus on its core water business [7] - After the spin-off, the company's operating performance and overall value are expected to significantly improve, as it will no longer be affected by the volatility of the real estate business [7] - The company's water business is stable, with high-quality assets in the Dongjiang water project, and its valuation is expected to rise after the spin-off [8] Financial Performance - In 2023, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders dropped by 34% YoY to HKD 3.12 billion, mainly due to a HKD 1.81 billion impairment loss from Yuehai Properties [7] - Excluding the impact of the real estate business, the company's core profit in 2023 was HKD 4.93 billion [7] - The company's operating cash flow in 2023 was HKD 10.71 billion, with HKD 7.1 billion coming from the core business after excluding Yuehai Properties [9] - In H1 2024, the company's operating cash flow was HKD 4.88 billion, with HKD 3.59 billion from the core business after excluding Yuehai Properties [9] Valuation and Forecast - The report maintains the company's profit forecasts for 2024-2026 at HKD 4.003 billion, HKD 4.101 billion, and HKD 4.120 billion, respectively [8] - The current market capitalization corresponds to a PE ratio of 8.5x, 8.3x, and 8.3x for 2024-2026 [8] Debt and Dividend - As of H1 2024, the company's total assets were HKD 139.8 billion, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 58% [11] - After spinning off Yuehai Properties, which has a higher debt-to-asset ratio of 87%, the company's overall debt level is expected to decrease significantly [11] - The company's dividend payout ratio in 2024H1 was 65%, consistent with 2023 [12] Business Focus - The company will no longer hold any shares in Yuehai Properties after the spin-off, allowing it to fully focus on its water business [7] - The spin-off is expected to enhance the company's operational efficiency and valuation by eliminating the drag from the real estate sector [7][8]

行 产 业 业 及 证 券 研 究 报 告 事件：中共中央政治局 12 月 9 日召开会议，分析研究 2025 年经济工作。 宏观政策导向边际宽松，明确"稳住楼市股市"政策目标。本次政策表态实施"适度宽松"的 货币政策，这是自 2011 年以来首次改变货币政策立场。会议亦强调"加强超常规逆周期调 节"、"稳住楼市股市"、"全方位扩大国内需求"等。"稳住股市"的表述也是首次出现在政治 局会议的通稿中。类比 9 月政治局会议提出"促进房地产市场止跌回稳"后，各部门出台了一 系列房地产放松政策。关注本次政治局会议后，后续针对股市的增量政策出台。 券商方面，本次会议与此前支持资本市场高质量发展政策形成衔接，释放出资本市场利好信 号，预计证券板块将明显受益。2024 年以来，资本市场高质量发展的制度基础不断完善。1) 党的二十届三中全会提出"健全投资和融资相协调的资本市场功能，促进资本市场健康稳定发 展"，并从提升上市公司质量、支持长期资金入市、建立市场内在稳定性长效机制、完善上市 公司分红激励约束机制、健全投资者保护等多方面进行了系统部署。2)新"国九条"坚持问题 导向、目标导向，充分体现了强监管、防风险、促高质量发 ...

行 业 及 产 业 房地产 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

上 市 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 交通运输 2024 年 12 月 09 日 德邦股份 (603056) ——核心竞争壁垒突出，网络融合未来可期 报告原因：首次覆盖 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 12 月 09 日 | | 收盘价（元） | 14.37 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 17.36/11.71 | | 市净率 | 1.8 | | 息率（分红/股价） | 0.55 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 14,757 | | 上证指数 / 深证成指 | 3,402.53/10,731.66 | | 注："息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | --- | --- | |------------------------------|-------------------------------| | 基础数据 : | 2024 年 09 月 30 日 | | 每股净资产（元） | 7.85 | | 资产负债率 % ...

医药生物 证 券 研 究 报 告 2024 年 12 月 09 日 方盛制药 (603998) ——创新赋能，多点开花 报告原因：首次覆盖 | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 12 月 09 日 | | 收盘价（元） | 11.20 | | 一年内最高 / 最低（元） | 13.58/7.12 | | 市净率 | 3.1 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 2.23 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 4,914 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,402.53/10,731.66 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | --- | --- | |------------------------------|-------------------------------| | 基础数据 : | 2024 年 09 月 30 日 | | 每股净资产（元） | 3.63 | | 资产负债率 % | 47.92 | | 总 ...

上 市 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 食品饮料 2024 年 12 月 09 日 中炬高新 (600872) ——无偿受让少数股权 有望增厚报表业绩 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------|--------------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 12 月 06 日 | | 收盘价（元） | 23.21 | | 一年内最高 / 最低（元） | 30.63/16.08 | | 市净率 | 3.7 | | 股息率 %（分红/ 股价） | 1.72 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 17,895 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,404.08/10,791.34 | | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|------------------------| | | | | | | | 基础数据 : 2024 | 年 09 月 30 日 | | | | | 每股净资产（元） | 6.24 | | 资 ...

策 略 研 究 申 购 策 略 证 券 研 究 报 告 新股申购 2024 年 12 月 08 日 林泰新材（920106）：国内第三大 自动变速器摩擦片供应商 ——北交所新股申购策略报告之一百二十七 本期投资提示： ⚫ 基本面：国内第三大自动变速器摩擦片供应商。公司 2015 年成立，总部位于江苏南通， 主要产品为自动变速器湿式纸基摩擦片和对偶片，下游最广泛应用领域是乘用车自动变速 器。公司自主研发的湿式纸基摩擦片产品打破国外垄断，根据中国汽车工业协会的统计， 公司 22 年国内市占率 4.3%，是第三大自动变速器摩擦片供应商。客户资源优质，供货关 系稳定，2024 年新增供货比亚迪。2024 年 2 月，公司向比亚迪 DMi 插电式混合动力车 型提供自动变速器摩擦片，逐步替代外资品牌供应商在比亚迪的份额。2024 年 1-6 月， 公司对比亚迪的销售收入占比达 12.19%。营收快速增长，盈利能力保持优异。2023 年实 现营收 2.07 亿元，近 3 年 CAGR 为+25.31%；2023 年实现归母净利润为 4918.23 万元， 近 3 年 CAGR 为+73.07%。2023 年毛利率 42.0 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an AHP score of 2.11 to Zhongli Co., Ltd., placing it at the 28.5th percentile of the non-STAR AHP model, indicating a mid-to-upper level performance [3] - When considering liquidity premium, the AHP score increases to 2.33, positioning it at the 40.1th percentile, which is at the lower end of the upper tier [3] - Under a neutral scenario with an 85% inclusion rate, the expected allocation ratios for Class A and Class B offline investors are 0.0210% and 0.0117%, respectively [3] Core Views Electric Forklift Market Leadership - Zhongli Co., Ltd. has maintained the top position in domestic electric warehouse forklift sales for 11 consecutive years since 2013, with a market share exceeding 35% in 2023 [4] - The company has also led in lithium battery forklift sales for five consecutive years since 2019, capturing over 30% of the domestic market in 2023 [4] - The global electric forklift market share reached 72.23% in 2023, with Europe at 88.71%, while China's market share was 67.87%, indicating significant growth potential [17] Expansion into Mobile Robotics - The company has ventured into the mobile robotics sector, launching the "Banma" robot series in 2020, which offers high automation, flexibility, and safety [19] - The mobile robot market in China saw a 46.62% year-on-year growth in 2023, with sales reaching 19,500 units [19] - A key project, "Annual Production of 300,000 Warehouse Handling Equipment and 1 Million Sets of Mechanical Parts Processing, Intelligent Robot Manufacturing (Phase I)," aims to enhance production capabilities in electric forklifts and intelligent handling robots [19] Global Market Expansion - From 2013 to 2023, China's electric forklift exports grew from 7.56% to 40.36% of overseas sales, reflecting strong global demand [5] - The company has established a global sales network, with overseas revenue growing at a compound annual rate of 25.03% from 2021 to 2023 [5] - Strategic acquisitions, such as the North American forklift brand BIG JOE, and subsidiaries like EP-Europe, have strengthened its presence in key markets like North America, Europe, and Southeast Asia [5][22] Financial Performance Comparison - Zhongli Co., Ltd.'s revenue and net profit are below the average of comparable companies, but it has shown steady growth with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.65% in revenue and 51.12% in net profit from 2021 to 2023 [25] - The company's gross margin is higher than its peers, with 2021-2024H1 margins of 22.65%, 26.74%, 28.72%, and 29.20%, respectively [27] - However, its R&D expenditure as a percentage of revenue is lower than comparable companies, ranging from 3.00% to 3.22% during the same period [27] Fundraising and Development Projects - The company plans to issue up to 61 million new shares, raising funds for projects including the production of 300,000 warehouse handling equipment and 1 million sets of mechanical parts, as well as the construction of electric forklift assembly lines and casting projects [32] - The "Annual Production of 300,000 Warehouse Handling Equipment and 1 Million Sets of Mechanical Parts Processing, Intelligent Robot Manufacturing (Phase I)" project is expected to yield a post-tax internal rate of return (IRR) of 20.04% with a payback period of 5.37 years [33] - Other projects, such as the electric forklift assembly line and casting projects, are expected to enhance the company's production capabilities and R&D strength [32]

行 业 及 产 业 传媒 2024 年 12 月 08 日 李飞飞空间智能谷歌 Genie2，AI 3D 再突破 看好 ——GenAI 之四十二 本期投资提示： ⚫ AI 3D：向混合 3D 路径迈进，世界模型有新进展。AI 3D 生成工具仍在技术快速进步 期，23H2 后混合 3D 路径正成为重要进步方向，一定程度上缓解高质量数据集匮乏难 题。3D 资产生产周期长、高度依赖人工，AI 3D 时代核心生产要素将从人力变更为算 力，内容生产厂商可实现在低边际生产成本条件下增加 3D 内容。内容创作门槛降低， AI 3D 工具可以简化 3D 内容生产流程，例如可视化内容编辑器可替代传统引擎，用户 可以通过拖拽开发模块、文字描述等完成内容创作。除 AI 3D 工具之外，世界模型也将 是未来 3D 内容生产重要方向，可直接生成具备可交互特性的视频/3D 场景，如近期由 李飞飞联合创办的 World Labs 发布的"空间智能"模型，谷歌发布的 Genie 2。均可 实现一张图生成一个 3D 世界，前者更进一步挖掘世界的物理本质，后者每一帧生成都 是像素预测，并通过额外用户输入引导下一帧概率分布。 ⚫ 游戏：AI 3D ...